Someone Has To Do It: US Elections 2020

[anton pulisov]

I see Twitter keeps muzzling his bullshit tweets. Took them long enough huh

[anton pulisov]

Chris Christie has condemned Trump's latest fraud speech.

[ad hoc]

This is a good place to get more crunched data on the remaining states https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-elec...e-changes.html

Though to be honest, one of the most important things I've got from it is how fucking cool Arizona's flag is

[Eggchaser]

Has the Great Distancing begun?

[anton pulisov]

Though to be honest, one of the most important things I've got from it is how fucking cool Arizona's flag is

Yeah noticed that when I drove through there a few years ago. New Mexico also has a very nice one.

[fospheny]

Biden goes 917 ahead in Georgia

[ad hoc]

Anyway, I'm still in the not relaxed about this at all camp. Nevada looks likely for Biden, i think. Arizona increasingly looks to me like a Trump win. Georgia is going to be tied up in recounts for weeks, and could go either way. So, it still comes down to Pennsylvania, and until those numbers start showing up in blue, I'm taking this "oh it;s going to go for Biden" punditry with a huge grain of salt

[Lang Spoon]

Is Arizona really likely to flip or is it just nerves?

[ad hoc]

Possibly nerves/pessimism, but it is going to be really close. According to that site I linked, Trump is currently coming in at 54% of most recent votes counted and he needs to be getting 56% to flip it. That's way too close for my liking

Either way, it would seem to be heading for a Georgia-esque month of recounts/legal challenges

[Nocturnal Submission]

I understand the caution but it's looking very, very good for Biden as a whole.

[anton pulisov]

It's been over for a while now, but we get to drag out Trump's suffering.

[Nefertiti2]

interesting

https://twitter.com/AdamRamsay/status/1324655181330587649?s=20

[anton pulisov]

Odds of Biden winning Pennsylvania are currently similar to the odds of Trump winning Alaska. If that helps put people's minds at ease.

[jason voorhees]

interesting

https://twitter.com/AdamRamsay/status/1324655181330587649?s=20

By "Northern End" does he mean "North Carolina?" So far NONE of the Appalachian Trail voted Trump.

Very happy it was John Lewis's county that put Biden up in Georgia.

[Wouter D]

One district of Maine voted Trump.

[jason voorhees]

Fair enough.

[diggedy derek]

ad hoc, thanks for that useful Github link, looks just a little bit clearer than other similar things I've seen.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Yes, it's very good.

[Satchmo Distel]

I don't see where Trump gets the votes in PA to counter the huge volume coming in from the urban areas. It's a replay of Michigan and Wisconsin but with even bigger numbers. Georgia is about whether Biden passes that 0.5% recount threshold, but the maths seem to rule that out.

So what we'll get now is Biden finishing in the 290-306 range but Trump dragging it out into December with recounts (which almost certainly would only switch fewer than 200 votes) and spurious legal challenges that will be thrown out because they are moot (the number of votes being disputed on any factual basis is far lower than Biden's margin of victory).

For January, unless there's an "intervention" by senior GOP*, I think the scenario is Biden getting sworn in away from the White House while Trump is being led out by force of arms or climbing into his helicopter on the lawn in the manner of Nixon.

*Not sure how to visualize this but the closest parallel might be when Thatcher's ministers told her one by one face to face that she was a goner 30 years ago this month. Who would take that role - Rudi, Pence, Ivanka, Barr, Pompeo? I think Alexander Haig took that role with Nixon.

[ad hoc]

ad hoc, thanks for that useful Github link, looks just a little bit clearer than other similar things I've seen.

there is a slight fuck up in it however- since Georgia switched to a Biden lead, the "block trend" column has now switched to reporting on Trump's name but with Biden's figures.

[kokamoa]

For January, unless there's an "intervention" by senior GOP*, I think the scenario is Biden getting sworn in away from the White House while Trump is being led out by force of arms or climbing into his helicopter on the lawn in the manner of Nixon.

*Not sure how to visualize this but the closest parallel might be when Thatcher's ministers told her one by one face to face that she was a goner 30 years ago this month. Who would take that role - Rudi, Pence, Ivanka, Barr, Pompeo? I think Alexander Haig took that role with Nixon.

They should just get Michael Rapaport in to tell him to go.

https://twitter.com/winter/status/13...495884800?s=21

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

It boggles the mind how much more the rest of the world knows about us than vice versa.

It turns out I knew more about the towns and counties of Arizona than I do about a midlands county like westmeath. This is not true of idaho or north dakota.admittedly, way more stories are set in arizona.

[Diable Rouge]

there is a slight fuck up in it however- since Georgia switched to a Biden lead, the "block trend" column has now switched to reporting on Trump's name but with Biden's figures.

Was wondering alright why they had Trump's recent votes trending around 57%!

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

By "Northern End" does he mean "North Carolina?" So far NONE of the Appalachian Trail voted Trump.

Very happy it was John Lewis's county that put Biden up in Georgia.

It's the tallahassee trail, keep up.

[Satchmo Distel]

Maybe this belongs to the COVID thread but I would be interested to see whether the impending transition would change the pressure in Red states on schools and universities to keep in-person classes going as much as possible across the US. Although Florida voted for Trump, a Biden admin is not going to throw money at Florida without some safety conditions, and even our corrupt Governor may act less recklessly without Trump breathing down his neck. OTOH that Cuban vote may embolden him to be even more reckless.

In my own employment field, I assume that my university employers are shitting bricks over the new US numbers given that they were banking on having more in-person classes from January than they've had this semester. I would think that a reversion to last March's schedule of shifting as much as possible to online will be forced on them eventually, but they may drag out the decision to literally the last weekend before classes. I am planning on the basis that all my classes can be delivered online even when they technically are still scheduled to have an in-person component.

If they insist on me showing up in a mask with a classroom where distancing is not 100% (how do you deal with students sitting in the corridor that you normally have to pass on the way to your room?), there's a discussion me and my wife will need to have given our medical histories.