Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Someone Has To Do It: US Elections 2020

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    That is especially true for states (like California) that have "open" primaries, as the principal reason for registering in a party in the other states (like New York) is being able to vote in primaries that are often determinative of the final general election result.

    Comment


      Originally posted by TonTon View Post
      I will never get over the idea of registering your political affiliation with the government.
      There are quite a few USians who find the concept of membership in a political party to be just as baffling

      Comment


        Sure. But they're wrong.

        (More seriously, of course, almost no-one in England is a member of a political party, and large numbers of people have the same retail view of electoral politics as yer average USian.)

        (Ok, ok, "almost no-one" is a stretch. Maybe 1.5% or so of people in the UK are. I don't have figures for England alone.)
        Last edited by DCI Harry Batt; 19-10-2020, 15:50.

        Comment


          Yeah, it just means you get a lot more junk mail.

          Americans, it seems, are just a lot more turned off by politics in general. You might think that the current situation would energize more people to get involved, and I think it has with young people especially, but it also makes it all so much more stressful and unpleasant. I'm in a 24-hr a day minor anxiety attack about it. I can't imagine having to engage with it all the time.

          Comment


            The Democratic leaning of VBM/absentee ballots has made a lot of people speculate that the in-person vote on Nov. 3 will be heavily Republican, which makes me wonder...are the traditional exit pollsters adjusting to take this into consideration? Will there even be exit polls this year?

            Comment


              Are exit polls a big thing in the US?

              Comment


                Originally posted by Incandenza View Post
                The Democratic leaning of VBM/absentee ballots has made a lot of people speculate that the in-person vote on Nov. 3 will be heavily Republican, which makes me wonder...are the traditional exit pollsters adjusting to take this into consideration? Will there even be exit polls this year?
                I'd rather speculate that old white Republicans will see their guy down 11 points and just not take the chance of showing up on Nov 3 to stand in line for 3 hours to catch COVID. Since it's all speculazzi at this point, that's what I'm clinging to.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                  Are exit polls a big thing in the US?
                  Massive

                  And the source of all of the demographic data you have seen

                  Comment


                    Ah yes, the demographic data, of course.

                    Is a big thing made of them on election night? Here we have all polling stop at the same time, and a massive exit poll released on network TV seconds later, which dominates coverage for a couple of hours until the first results come in.

                    Comment


                      I'm not sure many people voting by mail are aware that their ballot can easily be rejected if the signature doesn't match what the Department of Motor Vehicles happens to have on file. Many of the latter are stylus signatures drawn on a screen, which rarely look like your paper signature. I would assume the GOP are going all out in this direction and there will be raucous claims of "thousands upon thousands of bogus signatures."

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                        Ah yes, the demographic data, of course.

                        Is a big thing made of them on election night? Here we have all polling stop at the same time, and a massive exit poll released on network TV seconds later, which dominates coverage for a couple of hours until the first results come in.
                        Yes, they are a big deal. In 2004 there were polls released throughout the day, which possibly could have affected how people voted. The exit polls that year were projecting a big win for Kerry, so when Bush won a lot of people looked at the exit polls to suspect that there were dirty tricks happening in the vote counts.

                        Comment


                          Oh, we don't allow that here. It's illegal to publish an exit poll while polls are open.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Bruno View Post
                            I'm not sure many people voting by mail are aware that their ballot can easily be rejected if the signature doesn't match what the Department of Motor Vehicles happens to have on file. Many of the latter are stylus signatures drawn on a screen, which rarely look like your paper signature. I would assume the GOP are going all out in this direction and there will be raucous claims of "thousands upon thousands of bogus signatures."
                            Yes, I'm still convinced they're going to steal it.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                              Ah yes, the demographic data, of course.

                              Is a big thing made of them on election night? Here we have all polling stop at the same time, and a massive exit poll released on network TV seconds later, which dominates coverage for a couple of hours until the first results come in.
                              I feel like the UK elections have learned from the US in how to hype the life out of anything. Due to competing news channels, there is a race to call any state based on exit poll data and counties submitted.

                              You get the added bonus of different times of polls closing and different time zones, creating about 8 hours of TV where everyone looks like they have been drinking bang* excessively and frequently.

                              *Bang is like red bull on steroids with added creatine and god knows what. It is loony juice that makes you think you could go and pick up a car and carry it across the street.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                                Oh, we don't allow that here. It's illegal to publish an exit poll while polls are open.
                                There's the additional time-zone issue here. East coast states start announcing actual results hours and hours before west coast states finish voting - 6 hours before Hawaii finishes. In theory this is OK because it's not a federal election, but landside results coming in from New Hampshire could change how willing people are to stand out and vote in Montana, and thus impact local and senate races there.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by caja-dglh View Post

                                  *Bang is like red bull on steroids with added creatine and god knows what. It is loony juice that makes you think you could go and pick up a car and carry it across the street.
                                  I think you're understating the amount of caffeine in Bang. I've had a couple of cans, and both times they've made me intensely, unpleasantly jittery.

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Bruno View Post
                                    I'm not sure many people voting by mail are aware that their ballot can easily be rejected if the signature doesn't match what the Department of Motor Vehicles happens to have on file. Many of the latter are stylus signatures drawn on a screen, which rarely look like your paper signature. I would assume the GOP are going all out in this direction and there will be raucous claims of "thousands upon thousands of bogus signatures."
                                    This is dependent on state law and simply does not exist in many states.

                                    Even in those states that do have signature matching, there has to be a forum in which individual signatures are challenged, which in some states requires a formal recount.

                                    This isn't intended to diminish the likelihood of GOP challenges, but rather to provide some perspective as to the hurdles they face.

                                    Comment


                                      The time differences (not just time zones, but also significant differences in the time in which the polls close in different states in the same time zone) means that exit polling is much different here than it is in the European countries that allow it (which are much like the UK; I recall France TV having a countdown clock followed by a hologram Macron walking into a simulating Elysee last time 'round).

                                      Here, they are the basis for "calling" states and state-level races, but aren't done on a national level (in part because the national popular vote doesn't matter, as many have learned to their displeasure).

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post

                                        This is dependent on state law and simply does not exist in many states.

                                        Even in those states that do have signature matching, there has to be a forum in which individual signatures are challenged, which in some states requires a formal recount.

                                        This isn't intended to diminish the likelihood of GOP challenges, but rather to provide some perspective as to the hurdles they face.
                                        I had in mind the hay they'll try to make out of it as much as anything. The new normal is convincing the base the election was stolen so that millions of Americans view the other side as illegitimate.

                                        Comment


                                          Very true, but they don't need actual rules to do that

                                          Trump still.says that he lost California because of millions of illegal votes.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post

                                            I think you're understating the amount of caffeine in Bang. I've had a couple of cans, and both times they've made me intensely, unpleasantly jittery.
                                            True.

                                            Chugging a can of BANG allows you to down 300mg of caffeine in mere minutes, which can be too much, too fast for people who are not accustomed to such a dose. A warning on BANG cans details that "too much caffeine may cause nervousness, irritability, sleeplessness, and, occasionally, rapid heartbeat."

                                            Red Bull = 30mg

                                            I remember when Red Bull was seen as the big dog of caffeine. I was trying to anticipate tonton.

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by caja-dglh View Post
                                              I was trying to anticipate tonton.
                                              I shall have to up my game.

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                                Very true, but they don't need actual rules to do that

                                                Trump still.says that he lost California because of millions of illegal votes.
                                                Isn't there a big difference this time because the whole apparatus is motivated to "back up" the claims? In 2016 no one was prepared for the outcome, and Trump's claims of massive fraud were post hoc. They don't need actual rules but they'll use anything at hand.

                                                Comment


                                                  But the apparatus that you are talking about only will access to individual votes in states where the Republicans control the process and/or the statutory conditions are met.

                                                  California is never going to satisfy either condition, nor are several other states where he will lose. As I keep saying, it is a potential issue in a relative handful of swing states (like the one in which you live), but isn't nationwide.

                                                  Given the membership of the board, I think it important that one reminds non-US posters that the electoral rules for national elections here differ by state and locality, given that virtually nowhere else has a similar system and that virtually everyone else thinks ours is batshit crazy in this respect.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Here is another state that now has an issue, but had much less of one yesterday

                                                    https://twitter.com/zoetillman/status/1318220598678532105

                                                    Comment

                                                    Working...
                                                    X