Someone Has To Do It: US Elections 2020

[San Bernardhinault]

Isn't it the case that rural votes tend to get counted faster than urban votes (and will tend to be more right wing). So, it would seem that in these states the chances are early lead for Biden, switching (possibly) to slight Trump lead, and then back again to Biden

I'm actually not sure of that. I used to think it was true - perhaps because the rural precincts have small numbers so can count quicker - but 2018's count in Florida had a load of votes come in late from the Panhandle because they start counting later as they are an hour behind. Which led to disappointment on my part.

I'm also not sure that even in heavily Democratic areas (like Miami-Dade County) whether the in-person vote would favour Biden given what an outlier this election is in terms of who appears to be voting early. I certainly wouldn't be counting on it.

[ursus arctos]

That has definitely been the pattern in past elections as far as counting on the night.

There will be a lot of focus on Florida, as it closes relatively early and allows for advance counting, as SB noted.

I would also expect there to be the usual flood of declarations of non-competitive states as soon as the polls close.

[San Bernardhinault]

I'd also add that if all three - NC, FL and AZ - vote Trump, or even if only one goes for Biden, we're probably in for the long haul, with a stupidly close election and waiting on long counts in the rust-belt states: PA, WI, MN and MI, and we should all be worried shitless.

[caja-dglh]

You get a strange combination of hope and disgust when you see people looking to place an early ballot three weeks before the election and they are waiting for in excess of five hours.

[S. aureus]

I'm sure we can count on Trump to do whatever makes it most unpleasant for everyone, causes the greatest disruption and muddies the waters the most, whatever that turns out to be.

[Satchmo Distel]

I'd feel comfortable if Biden just wins FL of the three, assuming that it's inconceivable that he'd win FL but lose in all the Rust Belt states that went to Trump in 2016. If Trump wins FL then I'd assume Trump would dispute any losses in the Rust Belt and SCOTUS would then come into play (but my memory from 2016 is we knew HRC had lost the election by the time FL was confirmed so that could also happen to Biden in the absolute worst cases scenario).

[Sporting]

I would also expect there to be the usual flood of declarations of non-competitive states as soon as the polls close.

May as well declare them now!

[Incandenza]

Giving Trump Iowa and leaving Arizona as a toss-up, we start the night with Biden 222, Trump 163 based on this map:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/gpX12

So Biden needs 58. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but the map still remains friendlier to the Democrats.

[caja-dglh]

May as well declare them now!

You can start with the three Trump declared various forms of demise and going to hell earlier this week.

[WOM]

Giving Trump Iowa and leaving Arizona as a toss-up, we start the night with Biden 222, Trump 163 based on this map:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/gpX12

So Biden needs 58. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but the map still remains friendlier to the Democrats.

This one has had Biden comfortably over the line for the past few weeks.

https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

[Incandenza]

As does the Economist and the 270toWin consensus map, but those projections have MN/WI/MI/PA all for Biden. I'm optimistic for those, considering that Biden is doing much better than Hillary with white support, but still worrying about those until they've been called.

[ad hoc]

This one has had Biden comfortably over the line for the past few weeks.

https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

You say "comfortably" I say terrifyingly close

[ursus arctos]

Yeah, a Reagan-Mondale map might be comfortable under the circumstances

Though it would depend on the Senate results

[Incandenza]

Early voting return numbers:

https://electproject.github.io/Early...20G/index.html

13 states that release data also make party affiliation available. From those, almost 57% of the ballots returned so far are from registered Democrats.

Florida is already at 20% of the total 2016 votes cast.

[anton pulisov]

I really hope that the polling has improved since 2016

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/michigan/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ast/wisconsin/

[San Bernardhinault]

As does the Economist and the 270toWin consensus map, but those projections have MN/WI/MI/PA all for Biden. I'm optimistic for those, considering that Biden is doing much better than Hillary with white support, but still worrying about those until they've been called.

My worry about those is that they will probably count slowly. It would be better to be obviously ahead without relying on these, because any lack of clarity on the night is going to be bad and result in false claims from Trump and team.

[San Bernardhinault]

I really hope that the polling has improved since 2016

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/michigan/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ast/wisconsin/

The margins this year are bigger than those margins. If the polling is off in 2020 by the same amount, and in the same direction, as 2020, Biden still wins all three of those states. The current averages at both RCP and 538 are between 7 and 9% on all three states.

I know we like to be scared because of 2016's outcome, but we aren't in an analogous situation.

[anton pulisov]

I also like to the think that the pollsters are over-correcting because of 2016.

[Eggchaser]

Looks like we have our October Surprise, Hunter Biden emails, Ukraine and his dad. Funny how they drop these things just before the election, isn't it?

[ursus arctos]

And the day after it became clear that the "unmasking investigation" were a damp squib, following in Durham being a damp squib last week.

This drop is also dodgy as fuck.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Early voting return numbers:

https://electproject.github.io/Early...20G/index.html

13 states that release data also make party affiliation available. From those, almost 57% of the ballots returned so far are from registered Democrats.

Florida is already at 20% of the total 2016 votes cast.

That's all really encouraging. As you say, 57% of registered Democrats, only 23% of registered Republicans, few rejected ballots (though I've only looked at a couple of states' figures) and already over 20% of the 2016 turnout in a number of swing states.

[San Bernardhinault]

Don't read anything into early voting numbers. Least of all voter registration data. Please.

[San Bernardhinault]

And the day after it became clear that the "unmasking investigation" were a damp squib, following in Durham being a damp squib last week.

This drop is also dodgy as fuck.

Oh! I've just seen parts of the story.

An unknown person who might or might not be Hunter Biden dropped off a laptop with a Beau Biden Foundation sticker at a small computer repair shop in Delaware and never reclaimed it...

And the computer shop owner happened to back up the hard drive and give it to Rudy!'s lawyer before it was subpoenad and taken by the FBI.

And to prove its authenticity it has footage of Hunter in a lewd act high on crack, as well as having the "incriminating" emails.

Is anyone who's not already 100% in the bag for the QAnon end of Trumpism going to even give this a second glance?

[WOM]

You say "comfortably" I say terrifyingly close

Understood. But that's with the tossups completely excluded from the count. That's what makes it comfortable.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Never read anything into any voting numbers, that's what I say. I mean, they shouldn't be released until they've all been counted, really.

538's polling average figure for Pennsylvania in 2016 was fairly close to the result. I'd not assume "better polling".