Someone Has To Do It: US Elections 2020

[Various Artist]

I just assumed that both words simply derive from the same Latin root of caput for 'head', and hadn't thought about it more deeply than that.

Why is capital sometimes spelled capitol (is it just the record company or a wider thing)?

Heh, I actually stopped to google the distinction myself in the middle of the discussion last night, as I'd never been quite certain either of why and when "capitol" is sometimes used in US English – though I was fairly sure that it was meant to exclusively refer to a state legislature building... which it turns out is correct.

I think it doesn't help that the prominence of the Capitol in DC (and, yes, also things like the famous record company) means that there's a prevalence among certain American internet posters to misuse it as a synonym for "capital", which is probably what confuses the issue from an outside perspective.

It was because of this that a sentence of HP's last night could be interpreted either way:

The land to build the capitol was donated.

– i.e. he could've meant the building, or the city. So that was what finally broke the donkey's back for me and made me go and check!

[Satchmo Distel]

More confusion: Capitol Records was founded in 1942 (named by Johnny Mercer's wife*) but the building associated with it wasn't built until 1955.

*I assume she liked the multiple meanings of the word as it is spoken. The original name was to be Liberty Records but that name was already taken.

[Various Artist]

Capitol Records was founded in 1942 (named by Johnny Mercer's wife*) but the building associated with it wasn't built until 1955.

Ahh, that's a nice little titbit too!

[Hot Pepsi]

I just assumed that both words simply derive from the same Latin root of caput for 'head', and hadn't thought about it more deeply than that.

Heh, I actually stopped to google the distinction myself in the middle of the discussion last night, as I'd never been quite certain either of why and when "capitol" is sometimes used in US English – though I was fairly sure that it was meant to exclusively refer to a state legislature building... which it turns out is correct.

I think it doesn't help that the prominence of the Capitol in DC (and, yes, also things like the famous record company) means that there's a prevalence among certain American internet posters to misuse it as a synonym for "capital", which is probably what confuses the issue from an outside perspective.

It was because of this that a sentence of HP's last night could be interpreted either way:– i.e. he could've meant the building, or the city. So that was what finally broke the donkey's back for me and made me go and check!

I just misspelled it. I sometimes forget which is is which.

[Various Artist]

Oh, right – so that does alter the meaning, you did mean the whole city after all then?!

[Hot Pepsi]

Both, I think. John Harris donated the land for the capitol and that’s a major reason why the town around it became the capital.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1315991309526720513

[Ginger Yellow]

How do you get a five seat swing from three rating changes, none of which are better for Dems than toss up?

[ursus arctos]

Details are paywalled, but my guess is that it is a probabilistic pick given ten seats in play: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, at least one Georgia, Alaska and South Carolina. With an assumption that Alabama goes the other way.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1316037460216999938?s=20

[Sam]

Didn't Florida extend registration by a full 24 hours due to something going wrong with the registration system as well? Or did I imagine that?

[ursus arctos]

No, you did not

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/06/92077...n-site-crashes

[Sam]

I mean, for it to happen once in a hotly contested election is unfortunate, but twice ...

[Hot Pepsi]

I voted today. Took my ballot to the box by the municipal building.

[Incandenza]

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1316133002875985921

God I'd love if she had a serious challenger for the Speaker position

[Nocturnal Submission]

I'm a little worried that Nancy's going to say something that will be a gift to the Republicans. She's running a bit too hot at the moment for my liking.

[Sam]

A question on behalf of those of us in USA-adjacent timezones who plan to be watching CNN International or BBC World with a glass or four of fine rum on the final night of polling. To keep nerves steady all around I'll first state that I'm generally pessimistic about elections and am well aware of the Dems' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The question, though, is: given how many postal votes are being cast this year, and how heavily they're expected to favour Biden, what's the earliest we might see some indication of a really huge Biden win, if it happens? Would it be if it's apparent even on the night itself that he's taken Ohio reasonably comfortably, for instance? Would it be Florida going blue, or waiting to see whether Texas is a toss-up with mail ins still to be counted (I assume there's basically zero chance of Texas being won on in-person votes alone)?

Conversely, when would the earliest indicators be likely to come of things going badly for the Dems? Presumably quite early, if it's apparent the Republican vote is holding up much better than anticipated?

[ooh aah]

Yes, I vividly remember the American talking heads on BBC for the 04 election predicting a win for Kerry on the basis purely of a larger than expected turnout.

[DCI Harry Batt]

It won't only be those in USA-adjacent timezones.

[Sporting]

It won't only be those in USA-adjacent timezones.

True.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1316133002875985921

God I'd love if she had a serious challenger for the Speaker position

If Trump does win it will be so much down to the sheer dislikability of the corrupt old Guard

[ursus arctos]

The working assumption here is that all of the networks will be less eager to "call" the result in swing states than they have been in the past, precisely because of the expected volume of postal votes and the fact that there they are expected to favour Biden more heavily.

This is complicated by a number of factors, especially the fact that some states do not allow for the counting of postal or early in person votes to commence before the polls close on Election Day and the very real possibility that Trump will seek to pre-empt calls by declaring victory on the basis of early in-person results,

No one here is expecting to go to bed early.

[San Bernardhinault]

Some states can start to count absentee/early ballots early. Florida, Arizona and North Carolina can all start to count two or three weeks early, so they should have those votes released very early on the night. The thing to expect in all those states is a massive early Democrat lead that will be reduced dramatically because Republicans will be voting in person. Do not trust the early numbers.

But, if any two of those states end up being called for Biden, it's basically a done deal. My guess is that the networks will wait to call them for Biden unless there are actually fewer votes left to count than his lead. But if Trump takes a lead at almost any point, then I'd expect the networks to call the state for him because it's hard to see how Biden comes back with on-the-day votes.

[ad hoc]

But if Trump takes a lead at almost any point, then I'd expect the networks to call the state for him because it's hard to see how Biden comes back with on-the-day votes.

Isn't it the case that rural votes tend to get counted faster than urban votes (and will tend to be more right wing). So, it would seem that in these states the chances are early lead for Biden, switching (possibly) to slight Trump lead, and then back again to Biden

[WOM]

Probably. In Canada, some rural ridings have like 100 votes to count. I can imagine that in some rural Arkansas towns, breaking 100 would be real feat.