Someone Has To Do It: US Elections 2020

[San Bernardhinault]

I'd like Sanders to choose to drop out, but it would be exceptionally foolish for the DNC to put any pressure on given that Sanders supporters have a track record of feeling that the DNC is working to sabotage their candidate. They really need to try and appease as much of Team Sanders as they can, and certainly not antagonise them when there's no need.

After next week, with Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona all offering a ton of delegates and all looking Biden-friendly, the reality might look too stark for Sanders. There's just no harm keeping him around for one more week and one more debate.

[ursus arctos]

This week vs next week isn't a meaningful difference, but the conventional wisdom is that you want the presumptive nominee to begin picking a VP, trying to bring people into the tent, and hammering the opposition as soon as possible.

I can see the idea that the administration's malfeasance w/r/t COVID-19 presents a particular opportunity for the latter, but there is no reason they shouldn't both be raising hell on that point.

[Flynnie]

It sounds like next Sunday's debate is gonna be more along the lines of getting Joe to talk about his policy and nudge him leftwards than attacks, per se.

[That Night In Barcelona]

Would that be enough?

I think Biden needs to throw the left a couple bones. Harold Meyerson in the LA Times suggested free college and the Green New Deal. I think if you adopted those and mentioned the public option a lot more, along with a VP candidate that acknowledged this kind of thing (NOT WARREN), you'd at least have something to offer.

Yes I think the Dems do need to start thinking about policies for the general and not just what appeals to older registered Democrats. I presume in a general election the Dems need a broader coalition to defeat Trump than the one Biden has brought together in the primaries, based on how Obama won two terms at least.

[ursus arctos]

That would be an excellent idea

I would add a wealth tax as another point of possible convergence.

[That Night In Barcelona]

Perhaps instead Biden can offer the youth a sweet epic meme of him and Obama being bros.

[San Bernardhinault]

I'm actually relieved that Biden hasn't gone all Pantsuit Nation on us with memes and burns and hot takes.

[ursus arctos]

Very much the same here

[That Night In Barcelona]

I wonder how much of that nonsense came from Hilary's idea of what normal people like, and how much was terrible advice from her consultants.

[ursus arctos]

As with most of her fatal mistakes, the latter for sure

[That Night In Barcelona]

I'd like Sanders to choose to drop out, but it would be exceptionally foolish for the DNC to put any pressure on given that Sanders supporters have a track record of feeling that the DNC is working to sabotage their candidate. They really need to try and appease as much of Team Sanders as they can, and certainly not antagonise them when there's no need.

After next week, with Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona all offering a ton of delegates and all looking Biden-friendly, the reality might look too stark for Sanders. There's just no harm keeping him around for one more week and one more debate.

The Sanders campaign seem to be taking the view that there's only a difference of 150 points between them and Biden out of 4,051, and more than half the states left to vote. If they can turn it around, I think a lot of hinges on the debate on Sunday. My suspicion is that Bernie personally is too nice to really lay into Biden and that will cost him.

[anton pulisov]

Biden could still defeat himself, though.

And the Boomers might have to stay home because of Corona virus.

[San Bernardhinault]

The Sanders campaign seem to be taking the view that there's only a difference of 150 points between them and Biden out of 4,051, and more than half the states left to vote. If they can turn it around, I think a lot of hinges on the debate on Sunday. My suspicion is that Bernie personally is too nice to really lay into Biden and that will cost him.

From what I saw of Sanders earlier comments, it looks like he's accepting the inevitable - the national polling shows Biden with something like a 20% lead; and many of Sanders's supposedly strong states where he might make up ground have been and gone, and he hasn't shown formidable strength in them. It's hard to see a path to a delegate plurality for Sanders given the remaining states.

As Flynnie noted upthread, Sanders basically gave Biden a list of the questions that he's going to be asked on Sunday's debate: giving Biden an opportunity to practice answers that will help widen that tent. It felt like Sanders was accepting that the Democratic electorate didn't think he was electable, but did want to give Biden the chance to appeal to his voters.

[ursus arctos]

This is a useful examination of scenarios for the next two weeks

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...look-so-great/

[San Bernardhinault]

Would that be enough?

I think Biden needs to throw the left a couple bones. Harold Meyerson in the LA Times suggested free college and the Green New Deal. I think if you adopted those and mentioned the public option a lot more, along with a VP candidate that acknowledged this kind of thing (NOT WARREN), you'd at least have something to offer.

I agree. But I don't think he'll throw the full bones on both of those, though. If he does go there, I think it would be more likelyto be free two-year/community college, for example, rather than the full free college thing. And if he offers the GND, it'll be a watered down version picking and choosing only certain elements of it.

[anton pulisov]

Joe Biden saying he authorised Iraq war because he assumed Bush was using it as a threat to allow inspectors in, and Biden says since he didn't believe then that there were any WMD, he assumed inspectors would find no WMD, and there would be no war.

It's Trump levels of lying. Biden was Republican levels of Pro-Iraq war, and said at the time Saddam had WMD.

[That Night In Barcelona]

Joe Biden saying he authorised Iraq war because he assumed Bush was using it as a threat to allow inspectors in, and Biden says since he didn't believe then that there were any WMD, he assumed inspectors would find no WMD, and there would be no war.

It's Trump levels of lying. Biden was Republican levels of Pro-Iraq war, and said at the time Saddam had WMD.

If I were Biden's advisors I wouldn't give him such a convoluted reason to explain his vote because he'll almost certainly get it completely mangled next time he has to repeat it on stage.

[scratchmonkey]

I suspect the reason that Clyburn and many others have tried to push for no debate is that there's serious worry that any further unscripted public appearances for Biden would mean a greater chance of a potential gaffe. Now, this has been true of all primaries once there's a presumptive nominee; Biden has been...notably erratic thus far. I pity whoever has to transcribe a potential Biden-Trump debate.

[Cesar Rodriguez]

I suspect the reason that Clyburn and many others have tried to push for no debate is that there's serious worry that any further unscripted public appearances for Biden would mean a greater chance of a potential gaffe.

I agree and I think it speaks to the fact that Biden is being deployed as a Bernie stopper rather than as someone who could defeat Trump and subsequently serve as President.

They know he's not up to the task of being President but they need to prop him up just long enough to depose of Bernie.

[scratchmonkey]

I don't buy into that; I think that the DNC believes (wrongly, in my opinion) that Biden has a shot against Trump. I do think that there's real consideration being made toward protecting him now that the nomination seems his.

[anton pulisov]

I wonder if they might replace him at the convention

[Nefertiti2]

I wonder if they might replace him at the convention

[Flynnie]

I would actually kind of respect Hillary if she did that. Bending the party to her will like Richard Daley with a ward alderman in Chicago is kind of a gangster move, tbh.

[That Night In Barcelona]

I don't buy into that; I think that the DNC believes (wrongly, in my opinion) that Biden has a shot against Trump. I do think that there's real consideration being made toward protecting him now that the nomination seems his.

Yes, we shouldn't underestimate the capacity of the DNC to be completely out of touch with reality. If you get all your news from MSNBC, you'll get just as skewed a picture of the outside world as if you watched Fox News on a loop.

[San Bernardhinault]

What is it about Sanders supporters that they still have a bizarre HRC hang-up that she'll resurrect and return? If you listed things by probability, it's way below the DNC replacing Biden with Sanders, which is about the same as me winning the lottery.