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Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

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    Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

    Good evening and welcome, friends.

    Because we had so much fun with this topic last time, I thought it was time to start again. Why? Because it's starting to look nigh-inevitable that we are heading for another Battle Royale in the NPS.

    This promises to be the most riveting OTF thread of 2011. Riveting discussions on the subject of amortization? Pah! Philosophically rigorous interpretations of the tem "attempt to trip"? Feh! Cryptic Sodding Crosswords? Pfff! These will be nothing comapred to the sheer entertainment value of a trip to the hustings here in the Narco-Petro-Superpower.

    To recap - it's been almost 2.5 years since the last election. The Tories have maintained a stance of being strategically brilliant but tactically inept. They've managed to project an image which is largely one of competence in public policy (give or take a census decision or two) while at the same time looking like creeps, liars, thugs and bullies when it comes to the machinery of politics. All of which leaves them where they were 30 months ago - probably a couple of percentage points shy of victory.

    Michael Ignatieff has been uninspiring as opposition leader - but then opposition leaders are always pretty uninspiring. The NDP's Jack Layton is clearly in his last campaign - he'll be campaigning on a broken hip if the writ is dropped in the next couple of weeks. The Bloc Quebecois will get its 45-50 seats just for showing up. in short, all the polls point to an outcome almost identical to the one we have now.

    So, why go to the polls now? Because if not now, it can't be till next year. Canadians hate summer elections (we get so little of it we can't be bothered to clutter it with politics) And there are a minimum of six provincial elections due this fall, and you don't really want to have overlapping timelines.

    So now it's just figuring out how best to time it. We've a budget due on March 22. Until last week, it seemed as if that would be the occasion to nail them. But then it dawned on the Liberals that a vote around the issue of economic competence might not work so well - the Tories rank pretty highly on this, and Canadians have (ungratefully, IMHO) forgotten what a good job the Liberals did of this in the 1990s.

    But this morning, the Speaker hit the Tories with two separate contempt of Parliament rulings. Triggering a vote on these issues would make the vote about thuggishness and creepiness. Bonus!

    But now it's a race against time - can the opposition get a non-confidence motion in front of the house before a budget gets tabled? Bet on the Tories using a Parliamentary trick to release the budget a couple of days early if the opposition looks like they are going to succeed.

    Political intrigue! Parliamentary maneuvers! Michael Ignatieff! You won't want to miss it! I'll be your host for this thread, with WOM, AdC and linus providing expert colour commentary (plus fatbastard and unbelievable jeff, if they ever wander through this part of the World).

    #2
    Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

    TBH the result of QPR's FA hearing is of greater political moment than yet another federal election (was it really as long as two and a half years ago?) Manifest disinterest seems rife in this corner of the world. Out here the provincial election, even if it isn't called for months, is going to outdraw whatever faux enthusiasm the Ottawa media manage to summon up.

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      #3
      Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

      Crap.

      I was hoping that this was about an all party campaign for the RCMP to bring Zdeno Chara to justice.

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        #4
        Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

        I would hope that the electorate-at-large in these parts might reflect that, in light of the recent mayoral election, you don't have to vote Tory every time and that the world doesn't end if you do.

        But I won't hold my breath.

        For personal reasons, a fantasy election moment would be the esteemed immigration minister being toppled. But again, given his riding, I won't hold my breath. A trash can with a blue rosette would probably win Calgary SE.

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          #5
          Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

          Ouch. You're in the 40-year-old virgin's riding. One of the many ridings in Alberta where they weigh the vote rather than count it.

          Come on amor, where's your sense of wonder. Think of all the things we don;t know about what might happen in this election.

          1. What colour sweater will Harper favour?
          2. Will the Liberal platform emphasize health and education? Or will it be education and health?
          3. Which riding has the most ludicrous name? Is it Tobique-Mactaquac? Denesthene-Missinippi- Churchill River? Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia ?
          4. Will the CBC allow Rick Mercer on the election night special, and if so, in God's name, why?

          It's enough to get anyone's blood pumping, I say.

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            #6
            Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

            I'm not in his riding, it's just the goalposts for my permanent residence application are continually moved. As he's the public face of CIC, he's the object of my ire.

            I live in Calgary West, once the PM's domain before he moved south of the river.

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              #7
              Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

              Sweet jesus, that's worse. If the Conservative caucus needed an enema, Rob Anders would be where they'd stick the tube.

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                #8
                Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                ursus arctos wrote:
                Crap.

                I was hoping that this was about an all party campaign for the RCMP to bring Zdeno Chara to justice.
                It's provincial jurisdiction and the Surete du Quebec is handling it. Moves by the federal government to intervene will only hand another five seats to the Bloc (even if they do think the Canadiens are a federalist team).

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                  #9
                  Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                  I've a great deal of enthusiasm for this election, if for nothing more than it'll mean the end of Iggy the way the last one meant the end of Dion. Harper won't get a majority. Iggy won't get a minority. But unless he's willing to fall on his sword, nothing's going to change until we've squandered a few hundred million and aired our national dirty laundry for a couple months.

                  I think it would be more exciting if they brought the government down over its filthy behaviour rather than its budget, but I don't think that's going to happen. Iggy doesn't have the balls. None. He couldn't even borrow a set.

                  And let's be finally rid of Jack Layton and his bum hip into the bargain.

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                    #10
                    Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                    it'll mean the end of Iggy the way the last one meant the end of Dion. . . . Iggy won't get a minority.
                    I'm hoping that Jeff is not the only one who wondered why WoM was suddenly talking about the Calgary Flames.

                    Would the election end up being during the NHL Playoffs?

                    Isn't that against the Charter?

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                      #11
                      Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                      Assuming the government falls on a vote of confidence sometime the week after next, the statutory 35-day election period would put voting day in the last week of April, during the quarter-finals.

                      Obviously, this won't matter in Ontario. In fact, it's really only a big deal in Montreal and Vancouver; Calgary doesn't need election campaigns to know how to vote.

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                        #12
                        Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                        This year, or in the preceding 44, for that matter.

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                          #13
                          Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                          How quickly you metropolitan elitists forget the Sens.

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                            #14
                            Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                            Who?

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                              #15
                              Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                              I didn't forget them. But since they're duking it out for worst team in the league with Edmonton...

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                                #16
                                Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                                That's why my response was to WoM, not you.

                                You seem to be trying to corner the market in pointless national elections.

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                                  #17
                                  Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                                  Doesn't Italy hold the record for most governments since WWII?

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                                    #18
                                    Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                                    Yes, but most of those weren't the result of general elections.

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                                      #19
                                      Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                                      What...coalitions forming and reforming?

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                                        #20
                                        Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                                        Yup.

                                        Factional battles within parties, coalition reshuffles, ministers being indicted, the usual catastrophe.

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                                          #21
                                          Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                                          ursus arctos wrote:
                                          That's why my response was to WoM, not you.

                                          You seem to be trying to corner the market in pointless national elections.
                                          Oh, sorry, yes I see that now.

                                          This election won't be pointless. I actually think the odds on a change of government are much better than they were last time. Iggy's starting to get his messaging together, for one thing. And if they do manage to pull the trigger on the contempt of Parliament stuff, that will help, too. And the Libs don't need even to get into minority territory - a combined Lib-NDP total that is higher than the conservatives will probably be enough to knock them out.

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                                            #22
                                            Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                                            But we were optimistic last time too.

                                            Can they trot out Ms. Guergis again? She was always good copy.

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                                              #23
                                              Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                                              Ah, the Guergis/Jaffer disaster. Poor timing, that. We could have used that right around.....next week would be fine.

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                                                #24
                                                Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                                                Well there's always Bev Oda. Best Canadian political image of the year:

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                                                  #25
                                                  Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

                                                  Too bad she just had retinal surgery. Kind of takes the edge off the photo's undercurrent.

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