Betting/Stats Question

[Stumpy Pepys]

I just won a £100 betting voucher for bluesq.com. I haven't got the code yet, but I would imagine that I can't pocket the £100 but I can collect any winnings.

I reckon a reasonable target is to try and come out with £100, but what's the best strategy to achieve this, bearing in mind I don't have any particular abilty at picking winners?

Twenty £5 bets with fairly short odds? Bets shorter than evens, or more of a range of probabilities? Also, are any particular sports better or worse, in terms of my target?

[Ek weet nie]

Betting/Stats Question

You are better off using matched bets on betfair or similar exchanges to guarantee profit. Here is a guide on that.

You'll probably have more fun on betting on stuff you have an interest on though.

[Sean of the Shed]

Betting/Stats Question

I would bet it all on the next Accrington Stanley v Bury match.

[Stumpy Pepys]

Betting/Stats Question

I can only use the voucher on bluesq.com.

Years of doing the pools confirmed the uselessness of my football gambling.

[Hofzinser]

Betting/Stats Question

It's probably quite tricky to use a BlueSquare voucher on Betfair, unless I'm missing something.

There's obviously no sure fire way to make £100, and if there was we'd all be professional gamblers and the bookies would be out of business. I'd say just study the odds, stick to the sports that you know most about, and use your own best judgement. You should bet small amounts on the long shots, and larger amounts on the bets most likely to come in, assuming you don't want to risk it all in one go.

If you want to get really serious about it, you might want to study the Kelly criterion, which can give you advice on how to manage your bankroll most effectively.

[Stumpy Pepys]

Betting/Stats Question

There's obviously no sure fire way to make £100, and if there was we'd all be professional gamblers and the bookies would be out of business

What I want to do, effectively, is to make no money at all, with the intention of converting the voucher into cash. Intuitively, this seems to carry the least risk as a strategy.

[Ek weet nie]

Betting/Stats Question

No, I meant bet on bluesq with your £100 but lay the exact same bet on betfair for £100. If you match the odds and they are high enough you are guaranteed to profit. The link I gave you explains the process in detail for free bets.

[Stumpy Pepys]

Betting/Stats Question

Ah! That's exactly what I'm looking for. Cheers NA.

[pebblethefish]

Betting/Stats Question

The normal thing to do would just be to bet on a near certainty - England beating Andorra, that sort of thin. Sure, it'll pay 1-100, so you hardly profit at all, but the returns should be in cash.

If, on the unluckiest of chances, you lose, then you get to tell the story of how you jinxed England that time they lost to Andorra, which has got to be worth £100.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Betting/Stats Question

The long-form Premiership odds (depending on how quickly you want your money back) are very tight this season. I think the bookies are tightening their belts, too, in the "credit crunch".

Man U, Chelsea and Liverpool are all pretty much around 2-1 for the title next season, which means if you bet an equal amount on all 3 of them, you'd do no better than break even in the end, and if Arsenal or Man City won it you'd lose the lot.

There's got to be something wrong in that (from the punters' point of view).

[Ek weet nie]

Betting/Stats Question

pebblethefish wrote:

The normal thing to do would just be to bet on a near certainty - England beating Andorra, that sort of thin. Sure, it'll pay 1-100, so you hardly profit at all, but the returns should be in cash.

That's fine if they return your free bet stake but most free bets you only get the winnings which means that he'd get £1 back for his efforts.

[pebblethefish]

Betting/Stats Question

Really Nil? They've changed since I used to do it then. Which wouldn't surprise me.

With regards to Rogin, I remember that a few years back the average profit made from each race was 5.85% (why that exact figure has stuck with me I don't know), whereas football, which is largely based on loyalty rather than logic, was in the 12-15% category, depending on bet type.