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Teams that Surpassed or Fell Short of Expectations

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    Teams that Surpassed or Fell Short of Expectations

    These were the pre-tournament odds listed on the Sporting News website. I have added some comments

    Country Odds Comments

    Brazil 7/2 Odds were always too short given that they've gone out in the QF in their last three away WCs now.

    Germany 4/1 Seemed reasonable at the time but obviously there was a rot at the heart of the squad

    Spain 6/1 Doomed when the coach was sacked

    France 6/1 Should have been favourites. It's "their" time. Best team of post-2014 era.

    Argentina 9/1 Odds too short given historical failure in Europe, poor form in qualifiers, creaky defence, Mascherano, no Plan B

    Belgium 10/1 Odds about right. The draw meant they had to beat Brazil and France just to make the final. Shaky defence. Martinez.

    England 16/1 Exceeded expectations even though these odds were shorter than logic would have suggested at the time due to mug punters. Losing a dead game to Belgium paradoxically meant they went a round further than would otherwise have been the case because it's very unlikely they would have beaten Brazil in the QF that Belgium got.

    Portugal 20/1 Generous odds for European champions until you consider that they had a weaker draw in 2016 than here

    Colombia 33/1 Surpassed expectations until stupid tactics and bad temperament fucked up the winnable England game

    Uruguay 33/1 Surpassed expectations with their quality of play. Unlucky to draw the champions-elect.

    Croatia 33/1 Crazy that their odds were more than double England's. Odds set by a market with a poor grasp of history.

    Russia 40/1 Odds were about right. Surpassed expectations but largely because Spain fucked up and Croatia almost fucked up

    Poland 50/1 Most undeserved top seed (excepting the hosts) I can recall for a long time. Plodders.

    Mexico 80/1 Exceeded expectations by defeating Germany but then fell into the old pattern of last 16 elimination

    Denmark 80/1 Last 16, par performance on European soil.

    Switzerland 80/1 Last 16, par performance on European soil.

    Sweden 100/1 Got lucky because Germany's collapse meant they avoided Brazil last 16 exit

    Nigeria 150/1 Would have predicted 4th in the group so almost getting through probably exceeded expectation

    Egypt 150/1 Biggest flop of any non-European side compared to expectations. Couldn't even get a point off the Saudis.

    Senegal 150/1 The African side that most impressed, in a group that turned out to be tougher than predicted.

    Serbia 150/1 Shouldn't have been in Pot 4 but were still poor. Contrast with Croatia.

    Japan 250/1 Exceeded expectations of everybody except some of those who studied the Asian qualifying tournament.

    Morocco 250/1 I think they fell a bit short, even of these odds

    Peru 200/1 Should have been able to take a point off Denmark. Disappointing.

    Iceland 200/1 Got found out this time, or were simply past their peak.

    Australia 400/1 Performance reflected their indifferent qualifying form

    Costa Rica 400/1 Just way too negative. Very disappointing after 2014.

    South Korea 500/1 Beating Germany obviously exceeded anybody's expectations, even after Germany lost to Mexico

    Tunisia 500/1 Another plodder

    Iran 500/1 Exceeded expectations and would have qualified from some groups.

    Saudi Arabia 750/1 Bottom two deservedly

    Panama 750/1 Worst team I have seen at the finals for a long time. Torrid canal hammering ( © Nishlord)
    Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 12-07-2018, 20:21.

    #2
    Who do you think should have been seeded ahead of Poland- Portugal?

    Comment


      #3
      Yes

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        #4
        Jesus, give me a few seconds here, I just went blind from the overwhelmingness.

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          #5
          So odds have no relation to real life and betting's a mug's game then?

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            #6
            Football has so many random events in it that I can't see how anyone would ever beat the bookies long-term. However, I have a friend who backed France and that always seemed more sensible than backing Brazil, which really is a mug's bet given the previous three tournaments.

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              #7
              Since 1998 Brazil have won 12 knockout round games, Germany 12 and France 11. A bet on either to win the tournament makes sense although Brazils odds are usually shortened by marketing issues.

              I backed France at 6/1 but also Germany to Final and both Poland & Serbia to last 8

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                #8
                Serbia were not poor. They suffered from the draw as much as England benefitted: they gave Brazil a game and had the misfortune to face a hyper-motivated Swiss-Kosovar contingent.

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                  #9
                  Other than that overstatement, Satch’s assessment is spot on.

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                    #10
                    If England had drawn against Belgium and progressed on yellow cards I think Japan would have done them in the last 16.

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                      #11
                      Knockout Round Wins 1998-2018

                      Germany 12 / 16
                      Brazil 12 / 17
                      France 11 / 14
                      Netherlands 7 / 11
                      Argentina 6 / 11
                      Italy 5 / 7
                      Croatia 5 / 7
                      Spain 5 / 8
                      England 4 / 9
                      Belgium 3 / 6
                      Uruguay 3 / 6
                      Turkey 2 / 3
                      Korea 2 / 4
                      Portugal 2 / 5
                      Russia 1 / 2
                      Ukraine 1 / 2
                      Costa Rica 1 / 2
                      Senegal 1 / 2
                      Colombia 1 / 3
                      Ghana 1 / 3
                      Denmark 1 / 4
                      Sweden 1 / 4
                      America 1 / 4
                      Paraguay 1 / 4
                      Greece 0 / 1
                      Norway 0 / 1
                      R Ireland 0 / 1
                      Romania 0 / 1
                      Serbia 0 / 1
                      Slovakia 0 / 1
                      Ecuador 0 / 1
                      Algeria 0 / 1
                      Australia 0 / 1
                      Nigeria 0 / 2
                      Switzerland 0 / 3
                      Chile 0 / 3
                      Japan 0 / 3
                      Mexico 0 / 6

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                        #12
                        You need some 'recency' and home advantage adjustment. Only 5 of Brazil's 12 wins are post-2002 and two of those were at home.

                        The fact that Croatia's record was as good as England's coming into the tournament makes the odds even more perversely market skewed.

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                          #13
                          Recency (recentness?) is arbitrary. If I'd considered only the last 3 World Cups, Netherlands would have looked good- despite not making Europe's top 18 this time or slumping to 30th in the last Euros.

                          Brazil are consistent- quarter-final at least in the last 7 tournaments. That outweighs relative underperformance since 2006 and the semi final disaster last time.

                          Have you looked at foreign bookies' odds? They wont have had England so high. Croatia were reasonably a relative outsider- a previous good WC was 20 years ago and they'd won 1 knockout game in the last 8 tournaments. Struggled a bit in qualifying this time and all- less goals than NI and even Scotland

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                            #14
                            fewer

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                              #15
                              Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                              Panama 750/1 Worst team I have seen at the finals for a long time.
                              Worst since the Saudis in 2002, I'd wager.

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                                #16
                                Yes, and most thuggish minnow since even farther back.

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                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                                  fewer
                                  Fewer surely?

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                                    #18
                                    'Fewer, surely?' surely?

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Phew, Shirley

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