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    The brackets.

    They are likely to be heavily imbalanced, with the top 5 teams favored by the bookkeepers all in one bracket; here is a very likely matchup scenario:

    Spain-Russia
    France-Argentina/Nigeria

    Brazil-Germany
    Belgium-Senegal

    ------------------------

    Portugal-Uruguay
    Croatia-Denmark

    Mexico-Switzerland
    Colombia-England

    No "name" teams in the bottom brackets outside of the Euro title holders, although squads like Mexico, Croatia and Colombia have earned their keeps in the group phase.

    #2
    The problem with England / Belgium throwing their game to avoid the tougher looking half is you'd probably end up playing Colombia rather than Senegal or Japan.

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      #3
      And if Senegal destroy Colombia we'll be back saying it's better to avoid Senegal. It's been a very back and forth tournament so far.

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        #4
        Into the QFs and groups B and H are gone, with A and G supplying four of the eight between them. Six group winners and two runners up.

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          #5
          I imagine that group B being gone now was something on which a good profit at the bookies could have been made.

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            #6
            And ruined my sweepstake...

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              #7
              A or G could still supply both finalists. The two runners-up could meet in the lower half SF.

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                #8
                I've decided I like the name octofinals for the second round, though it probably won't catch on.

                2018 - six group winners won their octofinals, two groups gone
                2014 - eight group winners won their octofinals, no groups gone
                2010 - seven group winners won their octofinals, one group gone
                2006 - six group winners won their octofinals, no groups gone (in both of the G v H matches, the runners up won)
                2002 - four group winners won their octofinals, two groups gone
                1998 - six group winners won thier octofinals; two groups gone

                In the current world cup format, 37 out of 48 group winners have reached the quarter finals, a rate of 77%.
                Last edited by Kevin S; 04-07-2018, 12:38.

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                  #9
                  The 11 "upsets" in full:

                  2018: Spain 1-1(P) Russia ; Colombia 1-1(P) England
                  2014: none
                  2010: USA 1-2 Ghana
                  2006: Switzerland 0-0(P) Ukraine ; Spain 1-3 France
                  2002: Mexico 0-2 USA ; Denmark 0-3 England ; Sweden 1-2 Senegal ; Japan 0-1 Turkey
                  1998: Nigeria 1-4 Denmark ; Romania 0-1 Croatia

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                    #10
                    Some extenuating circumstances. In 2010, I think USA won the group with the last kick, and their group was weaker than Ghana's. In 2018, England and Japan rested players from the last game, Colombia went full strength. Japan had beaten Colombia in their match.

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