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Europe v Rest of the World at World Cups
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I think Mexico's result against Sweden tonight will be decisive in whether 10 or 11 European teams advance.
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My statistics aren't good enough but what are the odds (assuming that every team is equally good and therefore has an equal chance of coming 1st - 4th) that all 13 UEFA teams would qualify to the second round? Or rather, what would be the expected number of UEFA teams in the second round give the previous and the fact that there are 5 groups with two UEFA teams and 3 with one?
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Yes, Uruguay as the exceptions to the general rule in this WC, are the ultra-realists: it was amazing watching them game manage against Saudi
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Most annoying are teams who show flair until they score but then just manage the game. Not only Europeans but also Uruguay, in the piss easiest group imaginable given the seedings.
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I'm increasingly annoyed by stodgy 'game management' tall/fit Euro-bores.
The only joyful exception so far was Mexico, and they weren't even playing a 'game management' team, hence all their counter-attacking oppritunities. Senegal-Poland the opnly other, and that was as self-inflicted as Argentina's defeat, in many ways.
Denmark the worst offenders so far- not cos they have no skill, but cos they 'realistically' refused to use it. Sweden at least had the excuse of not much flair to start with.
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In 2018, if I am reading correctly, Russia, Spain, Portugal, France, Denmark, Croatia, Iceland, Swiss/Serbia, Germany/Sweden, Belgium, England = 11, the shortfall being due to Mexico, Brazil and Japan/Senegal knocking out a European side. Could be 12 if Brazil keep playing this badly, 13 or 14 if Mexico, Japan and Senegal suddenly collapse.
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When we move to the 48 team atrocity, 16 European teams are likely to be seeded into 16 groups so the maths at least becomes easier. The number of teams going through to the last 32 in 2026, say, ought to be at least 13. A kind draw might put all 16 through. Luck of the draw then comes into play.
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I think the greatest revelation is a direct mid-ranking UEFA v mid-ranking CONMEBOL clash like Denmark v Peru. The South Americans were winning those in 2014. Would Chile have done any better than Peru here? Very doubtful.
But there is always one European team that fucks up and stinks the place out. Poland here so far. Germany or Sweden probably going out to Mexico.
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2010, 33 games
Europe won - 14
RotW won - 9
Draws - 10
2006, 34 games
Europe won - 23
RotW won - 6
Draw - 5
European teams in last 16
2006 - 10
2010 - 6
2014 - 6
2018 - ? but surely going to be more than 6 and might even top 2006's total
Hosting the World Cup in Europe gives European teams a big benefit.
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Europe v Rest of the World at World Cups
2014, 64 games
Europe won- 20
RotW won- 11
Draws- 10
Neither or both European teams playing- 23
2018, 23 games to date
Europe- 13
RotW- 2
Draws- 3
N/A- 5Last edited by Duncan Gardner; 22-06-2018, 11:47.Tags: None
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