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Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

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    Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

    At the end of WC 2010, you could have said that Germany were on the rise, that Blanc would make France strong again, and Holland were good albeit dirty in the final. This meant, at the time, that Euro 2012 did not look likely to be a cakewalk for Spain.

    At the end of Euro 2012, however, there doesn't seem to be anybody that I'd pick to beat Spain in 2014. Portugal had their chance here and blew it in the shoot-out. Italy would seem to be vulnerable to injury and fatigue, and Balotelli will give you one good game in four. Germany in my view have only marginally improved since they hosted in 2006.

    That leaves Brazil, who fell at the QF stage in 2006 and 2010, and Argentina, who always flatter to deceive, and Uruguay, who perhaps also had their chance in 2010 but couldn't get past a not-great Holland.

    #2
    Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

    Yes.

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      #3
      Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

      Not just the next tournament, either. Most of that squad were between the age of 23-27, with only Xavi (32) and Casillas (31) older than 30 years of age, and 31 is not really that old for a keeper.

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        #4
        Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

        It will be up to Brasil/Argentina/Uruguay.

        Paraguay gave them their toughest test, and Chile gave them a good game as well. The same way the USA tends to match up well with Latin American sides, Latin American sides tend to match up well with Spain.

        But barring injuries, and the mental fatigue of two more Barça-Real campaigns and two more CL campaigns, and having to stay disciplined for 2 more years, then yes, they are the favorites.

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          #5
          Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

          One good performance, and they are suddenly unstoppable monsters? OTF is a fickle beast...

          Location generally seems to matter in World Cups and home advantage even more so. Brazil will be the favourites when the tournament kicks off. Spain will probably be regarded as the strongest European challengers, though, and rightly so. Especially if they have a centre-forward fit and on-form.

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            #6
            Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

            Given their attacking options, Argentina should be a force if Sabella can get the defence sorted out. Messi's looking better than ever for them, which could be very ominous for opponents, especially given that if you stick two or more men on him, you're leaving yourselves open to attack from one or all of Higuaín, Agüero or Di María. Their problem is that the defence is maturing maybe a couple of years behind the forwards, and that their goalkeepers are good rather than truly world class. All the same, if they can get patient enough on the ball and keep letting Messi do his thing, that might not matter.

            Uruguay are tricky to predict because some key members of the team are getting a bit old now. That being said they've got an incredible manager, so might surprise again. Their biggest weakness is that the year isn't going to end in a zero, though, so they probably won't make the quarter-finals (winners in 1930 and 1950; semi-finalists in 1970 and 2010; quarter-finalists in 1990 - those are all the WCs ever played in years ending in zero).

            Brazil are trickier to keep up with given their lack of competitive matches at the moment, but the pressure's going to be colossal on them and their team is going to be pretty young in some key areas. If Neymar doesn't move to Europe this year or next he might struggle as well. Jonathan Wilson - I think for the Howler Brazil-Argentina preview mini-issue - wrote recently that with Brazilian defences barely pressing at all, Neymar's simply never been seriously tested by a tactic that pretty much everyone is going to use against him during the World Cup, and that in that respect he'd benefit from a move to Europe before 2014. The conventional wisdom, though, seems to be that he's staying with Santos until after the World Cup at the earliest.

            Spain are undoubtedly the strongest team at this stage. The climates are going to be a real leveller, though; for starters the humidity in some of the venues and the heat, but also the fact that some of the groups are going to have teams flying from Manaus, where those conditions will be at their worst, playing a game there and then for their next match, heading to cities on the other side of the country, much further from the equator, where conditions will be completely different. Acclimatisation's going to prove impossible for some of the sides who are unlucky in that respect in the draw.

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              #7
              Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

              (Needless to say I'm desperately hoping I can get accreditation for it and get at least some expenses covered, and if that does happen I'm going to be keeping my fingers crossed all the way for another Maracanazo...)

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                #8
                Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                Good luck with that Sam, sounds like a plan!

                The weather shouldn't be a big factor in 2014, most of Brazil will feature mild to pleasantly warm conditions. Manaus looks like the only venue with tropical weather but even there the evenings are supposed to be mild enough.

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                  #9
                  Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                  satchmo76 wrote:

                  At the end of Euro 2012, however, there doesn't seem to be anybody that I'd pick to beat Spain in 2014. Portugal had their chance here and blew it in the shoot-out. Italy would seem to be vulnerable to injury and fatigue, and Balotelli will give you one good game in four. Germany in my view have only marginally improved since they hosted in 2006.
                  You are contradicting yourself: Portugal were one penalty away from beating Spain. They showed that eliminating Spain is possible.

                  I'd also counsel against measuring a team's quality only by their performance over three weeks. Germany went into the tournament in desperately poor form, and improved only marginally. I suspect that the Bayern contingent was still a bit demoralised from three runners-up spots (they are probably glad they didn't make it four). I don't think that we saw Germany playing to its potential.

                  I can't really comment about Holland, but they probably also did not reach their full potential.

                  Spain, on the other hand, peaked at the right time. Of course, that ability, on top of everything else that creates such a chasm between them and the rest, makes Spain a compelling favourite. But I still think that they can be beaten. Any side can be beaten by inferior competition, as Barcelona and Reakl Madrid learnt this year.

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                    #10
                    Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                    I can't say I've been keeping tabs on how the major South American teams are shaping up, but it seems that if any one player has sufficiently reliable precision to make a handful of chances, or even half-chances, count (or even cook up chances out of absolutely nothing), then it's Lionel Messi. Byond that, it's the usual job of keeping the Spanish attack at bay, which as the Portuguese demonstrated, is not impossible.

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                      #11
                      Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                      Of course they are firm favourites but I have to say that Germany and Portugal are young enough and got near enough to them that they will pose a threat. I can't speak in any great knowledge about Uruguay, Brazil or Argentina but, surely, it being on their continent will help a touch.

                      I hope that all teams playing against them realise that an improved version of the Portugal/Italy approach of taking the game to them rather than sitting back and defending is better as both a tactic as well as a spectacle though

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                        #12
                        Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                        satchmo76 wrote: Germany in my view have only marginally improved since they hosted in 2006.
                        Sorry, I disagree with that. I think Germany are a much better side now and still have room to improve.

                        Doubt they will win in Brazil, but it's not impossible.

                        Spain may get lazy. Other teams are going to figure out the six midfielders trick. There are a lot of miles to cover before 2014 and a lot of games to play. How strong is their squad if a few top names get injured?

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                          #13
                          Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                          Ireland will be there or thereabouts, mark my words. Trap's going to ditch 4-4-2, introduce an extra man in midfield, drop Whelan, call up Wes Hoolahan to play in the Zola role, pension off the old guard and turn everything on its head. The Swedes and Germans won't know what's hit them, the poor bastards.

                          Ahem.

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                            #14
                            Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                            Analogue Bubblebath II wrote: The Swedes and Germans won't know what's hit them, the poor bastards.

                            Ahem
                            Aren't you a little bit worried about the challenge from Austria and even Kazakhstan for third place? Borat's boys might be a handful on their own manor.

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                              #15
                              Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                              If we can't beat Kazakhstan, we may as well disband the national team. We're poor but we're not that poor.

                              Austria didn't win any of their six games against serious or semi-serious opposition in the Euro qualifiers. We'll finish ahead of them but that's as far as we go.

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                                #16
                                Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                i think argentina are the team most likely to stop spain. i desperately hope messi gets to play against them. mascherano too. then as sam says they've got better supporting players in attack than almost everyone else.

                                i could see brazil struggling with the pressure, but argentina should be excited by the prospect of winning the world cup there.

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                                  #17
                                  Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                  Is this Sabella any good? Argentina were really handicapped last time round with Maradona as coach, it really was a great shame.

                                  Ireland needs to start by selecting a new captain. I reckon James McCarthy is the man.

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                                    #18
                                    Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                    Odds from Boylesports:

                                    10/3 Brazil
                                    9/2 Spain
                                    11/2 Argentina
                                    8/1 Germany
                                    12/1 Holland
                                    16/1 England
                                    16/1 Italy
                                    20/1 Uruguay
                                    22/1 France
                                    25/1 Portugal
                                    40/1 Chile
                                    66/1 Paraguay
                                    66/1 Mexico
                                    66/1 Belgium
                                    66/1 Russia
                                    66/1 U.S.A.
                                    80/1 Colombia
                                    80/1 Serbia
                                    80/1 Ecuador
                                    80/1 Turkey
                                    100/1 Ghana
                                    100/1 Ivory Coast
                                    100/1 Czech Republic
                                    100/1 Croatia

                                    Holland still rated well ahead of Portugal?

                                    Some very tempting choices at 100/1.

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                                      #19
                                      Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                      One good performance, and they are suddenly unstoppable monsters?
                                      I think the key point surely is that Spain aren't losing even when they're playing badly - let's face it, they didn't even concede during their last 500 minutes of play.

                                      I prefer the 'we'll score more than you attitude' of Brazil's classic sides, but have to concede that that is the measure of a great team in modern football.

                                      Some very tempting choices at 100/1.
                                      Indeed - Croatia are surely worthy of an each-way?

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                        Jongudmund wrote: Spain may get lazy. Other teams are going to figure out the six midfielders trick. There are a lot of miles to cover before 2014 and a lot of games to play. How strong is their squad if a few top names get injured?
                                        If they were going to get lazy, wouldn't that have happened already? They still seem fairly driven, unlike France in 2002, for example. No reason to think it will change.
                                        As for squad depth, well, they coped with the lose of two highly probable starters in Puyol and Villa for this event. They also got through the tournament without Llorente, an excellent player, ever getting on the pitch, and with brilliant players like Santi Cazorla and Juan Mata getting a handful of minutes maximum. These are all likely starters for any of the other 15 countries.
                                        I'd say Spain have the best depth of talent of anyone bar Brazil. They also have shedloads more talent coming through their underaged teams, who repeatedly win the youth tournaments. An injury to a first choice player hurts them the least of anyone.

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                                          #21
                                          Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                          are you mad? there is hardly a brazillian player that would make it near the spanish squad. If thiago alcantara had chosen to play for brazil, he'd be the cornerstone of their national team already. They've given rafael da silva a cap. Rafael bloody da silva. The phrase Brazilian international is truly a debased currency.

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                                            #22
                                            Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                            I mean he wore the same jersey as carlos alberto. Carlos Alberto, and cafu.

                                            Even when wanderley luxemburgo was allegedly selling caps to get players moves, they didn't sink this low. At least that was good oldfashioned corruption. They picked rafael because they thought it was a good idea.

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                                              #23
                                              Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                              Luxemburgo capped Rafael Scheidt a couple of times. That'll never be beaten.

                                              Lucas is also in the Brazil team these days. I think he appeared in all their games at the Copa America.

                                              Lucas is . . . decent, at certain things . . . up to a point . . . but this is Brazil, FFS. In the 1980s or 1990s he wouldn't even have been allowed to live there.

                                              Marcelo is in the squad too.

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                                                #24
                                                Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                                Lucas is . . . decent, at certain things . . . up to a point . . . but this is Brazil, FFS. In the 1980s or 1990s he wouldn't even have been allowed to live there.

                                                hahaha.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                                  Analogue Bubblebath II wrote: Luxemburgo capped Rafael Scheidt a couple of times. That'll never be beaten.
                                                  Wasn't he involved in some conspiracy to give caps out to crap players in the qualifiers for World Cup 2002, which their agents were then able to use to get their players a lucrative move to Europe?

                                                  May have been a different manager, but I have a half a memory that several agents were prosecuted. Also I think Luxemburgo went through capped 80-90 different players before the tournament.

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