Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

[Satchmo Distel]

On current trajectories of decline, are any of these sides in danger of not making it: France, Czechs, Russia, Turkey, Serbia, England, Ireland?

[ooh aah]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

I can say with some confidence that France will make it.

Czech's are improving from 2 years ago, Ireland hardly count as a big team, but I think Russia have some rebuilding to do, and maybe Croatia will be in decline by then, as Modric will be getting on a bit by then.

[EIM]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

China, or Brazil.

[Satchmo Distel]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

What's the biggest team Russia or Croatia would have to beat to qualify: someone like Scotland?

[ooh aah]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

I seem to recall there was talk of radical changes taking place to the qualifying for 2016. Groups of 4 with the winners qualifying automatically. Then the remaining teams being drawn in home and away playoffs. That could see one or two surprises.

This hasn't been confirmed though.

[Satchmo Distel]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

Can't see that happening: too big a risk that a big nation would fuck up.

[ooh aah]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

Well the pressure was from the bigger nations - they didn't want to go through a long qualifying campaign when 24 teams were qualifying. There would be 13 groups of 4, so there would only be one big team in each group.

I think this was discussed on here about 6 months ago.

[Sam]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

Also, the fact that 24 nations are going to qualify for it seems to rule out much real possibility of any of those mentioned in the OP not qualifying, doesn't it? They might be on a downward trajectory, but they'd have to fall all the way through the basement floor to not make it.

And as ooh aah says, it would be quite surprising if France weren't there.

[linus]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

The last time France failed to qualify for the Euro was in 88, the USSR finished ahead IIRC. It's been a while.

[David Agnew]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

Russia have a suspended six point deduction hanging over them, in the case of there being any fan violence during 2016 qualification, so they would be in the biggest danger.

On current form Romania, Scotland, Bulgaria, Austria and Hungary are probably the biggest sides hovering around or below the 24th seed slot.

satchmo76 wrote: On current trajectories of decline, are any of these sides in danger of not making it: France, Czechs, Russia, Turkey, Serbia, England, Ireland?

In what way are France, the Czechs, England and Ireland in a trajectory of decline? The first two got further than they did in 2008, and the latter two qualified this time when they didn't four years ago.

[Diable Rouge]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

Sam Kelly wrote: Also, the fact that 24 nations are going to qualify for it seems to rule out much real possibility of any of those mentioned in the OP not qualifying, doesn't it? They might be on a downward trajectory, but they'd have to fall all the way through the basement floor to not make it.

And as ooh aah says, it would be quite surprising if France weren't there.

There'd have to be a remarkable reason to strip them of host status.

[Sam]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

Yes... that was sort of my (and I assume ooh aah's) point.

[Sean of the Shed]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

ooh aah wrote: I seem to recall there was talk of radical changes taking place to the qualifying for 2016. Groups of 4 with the winners qualifying automatically. Then the remaining teams being drawn in home and away playoffs. That could see one or two surprises.

This hasn't been confirmed though.

23 teams are required to join France, so my best guess would be 9 groups of 6 (2 containing 5 assuming there are no suspensions) with the top 2 teams qualifying automatically, along with the best 3rd place team. The remaining 3rd place teams would then play off for the last 4 places.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Biggest Nation that might not qualify for 2016?

With UEFA needing to reduce 52 teams to 23 qualifiers to join France in 2016, and promising to review the qualification process to make sure it is not "boring", one can only hope that sense prevails and qualification becomes a straightforward matter of 6 preliminary round ties and then 23 qualifying round ties, all over two legs.

You'd see a few shocks then, I'm sure, even if the draw was seeded.