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A (Dubious) Theory On Penalty Kicks

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    A (Dubious) Theory On Penalty Kicks

    I've no data to back me up, but I've been annoying my family by being right twice in four days with my theory that the team that misses first more often than not goes on to win the shootout.

    I don't have the energy to look into this statistically, but my memory says that anecdotally it seems that way. My theory is that the team that falls behind relaxes more because it already thinks it's half way to losing, and so is under less pressure. The team that's gone ahead, meanwhile, gets either slightly complacent and thinks it's half way to winning, or the pressure of being ahead and being so close to winning gets to them, and they start missing.

    When its opponents miss, the team that was behind suddenly has new psychological momentum, just as a team that equalizes in a game often goes on to win.

    For the sake of my family (and for my sake, so they hate me less for seeming to be right), please go ahead and blast some holes in this theory.

    #2
    A (Dubious) Theory On Penalty Kicks

    Let's blast a massive hole in that theory.

    Before Euro 2012, there had been thirteen penalty shootouts in the finals. Of those, only three shootouts featured both sides missing. Of those, the side that missed first always lost.

    So, before last Sunday, in the European Championships, the team that missed first had won 0% of the time, that figure is now 13%.

    Euro 76:
    West Germany missed first. Czechoslovakia won 5-3

    Euro 80:
    Italy missed first. Czechoslovakia won 9-8

    Euro 84:
    Denmark missed first. Spain 5-4 Denmark

    Euro 92:
    Netherlands missed first. Denmark 5-4 Netherlands

    Euro 96:
    Spain missed first. England 4-2 Spain
    Netherlands missed first. France 5-4 Netherlands
    France missed first. Czech Republic 6-5 France
    England missed first. Germany 6-5 England

    Euro 2000:
    Netherlands missed first. Italy 3-1 Netherlands*

    Euro 2004:
    England missed first. Portugal 6-5 England*
    Sweden missed first. Netherlands 5-4 Sweden*

    Euro 2008:
    Croatia missed first. Turkey 3-1 Croatia
    Italy missed first. Spain 4-2 Italy

    * denotes that both sides missed at least one kick.

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      #3
      A (Dubious) Theory On Penalty Kicks

      That said, the last four shootouts I've seen, the side that missed first won.

      Huddersfield v Sheffield United
      Chelsea v Bayern
      England v Italy
      Spain v Portugal

      It's been a lucrative bet in-play market.

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        #4
        A (Dubious) Theory On Penalty Kicks

        The last five World Cup penalty shootouts have been lost by the side that missed first. Ukraine (v Switzerland in 2006) were last to buck the trend. France (v Italy in 1998), Argentina (v England in 1998), Sweden (v Romania in 1994) and West Germany (v France in 1982) are the only other four to miss first and win.

        Overall, in 21 World Cup shootouts, only 8 have featured both sides missing, with five missing first and winning (23%). Overall, in World Cups and European Championships, just under 20% have been won by the side that missed first.

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          #5
          A (Dubious) Theory On Penalty Kicks

          My theory now has the appearance of a bloody and bullet-riddled dead duck, floating on still waters, slowly drifting out to sea. Thanks for doing the research, DA. And don't tell my family.

          New theory: have you noticed that in penalty shootouts at Euro 2012, the team that misses first always goes on to win? Amazing, eh?

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            #6
            A (Dubious) Theory On Penalty Kicks

            Like 1994, when the team getting the red card won all 4 games that it happened in.

            There was a great website called The Game Behind The Game, written by Ric or Rick Miller in the late 90s.

            In it, he analyzed all shootouts through 1994, and determined that the team shooting second won most of the time. In this case, the team shooting and missing first kind of gets the jitters out, and takes the worst possible thing to happen out of the equation.

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              #7
              A (Dubious) Theory On Penalty Kicks

              I thought imp's theory was specifically to do with sides who miss their first penalty, not simply the first to miss a penalty in the shootout. Most of the examples in DA's list are the latter. Obviously if a side is the first to miss with the 6th kick, like England did in 1996, they'll most likely lose. But I can see the points imp makes about teams missing their first one changing the "pressure dynamic".

              I always remember when Liverpool sent up the palpably quaking Steve Nicol to inevitably miss their first in 1984 against Roma, then Roma went to pieces after Phil Neal calmly equalised with their second.

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