Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

[David Agnew]

Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

Fascinating insight into Italian culture, that.

Not really, I think it's more a case of the Italians being aware that a 2-2 stitch up is a possibility, whereas in the UK, ITV presenter Adrian Chiles mumbled about the qualification permutations in the event of Italy winning, and Spain/Croatia drawing as being beyond comprehension, so it'll take a day or so for it to dawn on people.

The draw is currently odds against, but it's incredibly low at 13/8 (2.6 in decimal odds). The next lowest odds is Portugal v Netherlands at 23/10 (3.3), but most are 5/2 (3.5) or more. Spain's odds are only just odds on at 4/5 (1.8), but I would expect them to be Evens or 11/10 by the time most betters realise the prospect.

Also, the bookies have all pulled the correct scoreline market. 2-2 would normally be around 14/1 to 16/1, but had dropped within minutes of Spain getting their third.

[David Agnew]

Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

Janik wrote:

both teams took the foot off the gas in the last 10 minutes in the knowledge that they would both advance; this was no West Germany-Austria though.

I'm fairly sure that this is what happened back then, and if the Croatia-Spain game reaches 2-2 will happen now. It just becomes a stalemate as neither teams needs to attack to get what it wants.

P.S. NHH, talking of your spreadsheet, there appears to be a bug. It's currently giving Denmark's GD as +1 (4-3) when it should be 0 (3-3). Everything else in Group B looks right.
I'm pretty sure that it's looking at the wrong cell. If one changes the score against Portugal, the Danish goals for column shifts as well as the goals against. If you change the score against Denmark, the Danish totals don't change and only the Portugese goals against alters.

SOmeone else pointed it out to him earlier, and he's updated it on the website.

[linus]

Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

nastynip wrote: If Spain finish second in their group (now unlikely), it's just about possible that England will play Ukraine to effectively determine the winner of the group, but with both teams preferring to finish second in order to avoid the bull-baiters.

It could happen if Spain finish second and both England and Ukraine win tonight, making the table thus

Ukraine 6
England 4
France 1
Sweden 0

It would likely only be an issue if both England and Ukraine win tonight's games by a couple of goals each,making England realistically uncathcable by France unless there was a large goal swing. Both Ukraine and England could then find themselves in a situation where second place rather than first was more desirable.

this is a series of fairly improbable events, meaning that this scenario is highly unlikely. England vs Sweden is a tossup (that's american english for 50-50), and the last time France played Ukraine last year they won 4-1, in Ukraine, so a France loss seems less likely than not.

[Janik]

Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

I don't think it's wise to assume results in the other group and try and avoid teams on that basis.

To give a recent example from another sport, in the 2011 Women's Hockey European Championships, England went into a game against Germany looking for a win to help them top their group, and so avoid a semi-final against perennial World and European Champions the Netherlands, as they would surely top the other group...
England duly beat Germany 2-0, but then the following day the Netherlands suffered a shock 1-0 defeat to Spain. Resulting semi-final line-up; Germany vs Spain, England vs. Netherlands. Two games later, the Dutch had their 8th European title (from 10 events), and England had their fourth straight bronze medal.

[Belhaven]

Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

Spain's conceding two or more goals should raise a few eyebrows irrespectively. When did that last happen?

[ursus arctos]

Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

Phoebe, I take your point, but still think that it says volumes about Italian culture that the possibility/probability of a stitch up was being widely discussed as soon as Spain scored their third, and has dominated the post match analysis and punditry.

[Satchmo Distel]

Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

Spain could and should have conceded two against Italy. They are much weaker at the back without Puyol.

However, I also think that Croatia look weak enough defensively for Spain to score 4 or 5, so the real issue might be 'why did Spain only score two'?

[Duncan Gardner]

Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

Belhaven wrote: Spain's conceding two or more goals should raise a few eyebrows irrespectively. When did that last happen?

They last conceded three in a competitive game against Norn Iron in September 2006.

Argentina and Portugal have both gubbed them in friendlies since then.

[Sean of the Shed]

Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

There is a bit of a delicious irony about the Italians potentially being knocked out by a pre-arrangede result.

[Er Liquidatore]

Shades of SWE - DEN: possible fix ups

Ursus is right. Because their football (culture in general) is so crooked, they assume that everyone else would stoop to the same level. It's all very cynical, and says more about them than the teams participating.

It would very very funny if they did carve it up though.