AFL 2009

[trimster]

Just realised that the start of the new season is only four days away! Frankly, I haven't been paying much attention to club news and couldn't even tell you who won the pre-season cup (it was probably between two Melbourne teams!)

But with only four days to go, I must start to rev up my interest.... I guess the big question is, will Hawthorn's premiership last season turn out to be a flash in the pan; and will Geelong continue their dominance?

Not much happening in Adelaide- apart from the usual anti-Port Power campaign ("what right have they to claim the Port Adelaide Magpie's tradition when they are a seperate entity, etc etc") And Dominic Cassisi being unexpectedly given the Power captaincy only to have Sean Burgoyne claim his disapointment in the media. So that should sow the seeds for friction and disunity before the season even starts. And, of course, Port are in deep financial trouble as well.

Finally, the AFL are famous for changing the rules of the game every year ("innovative management initiatives"), but for once this year they could have come up with a rule change that improves the game. The outlawing of the deliberately rushed behind should keep defenders on their toes- provided the umpires get it right.

[Guest]

AFL 2009

2009 – the onfield preview

Are we in for an ugly year? The preseason cup was awful – lots of low scoring, ultra defensive games with many teams handballing more than they kick. At times, it was like watching rugby union. Hawthorn's success with the rolling defensive zone (really just a fancy term for flooding) has sparked a wave of imitators. Instead of lining up in the traditional man-on-man fashion, teams are zoning numbers behind the ball making it very difficult for the opposition to penetrate unless they have startlingly accurate kicking skills or are prepared to run and handball (which carries with it the big risk of being tackled and losing possession). What we've seen many times this preseason is a player in possession faced with a wall of players in front of him deciding to kick backwards or sideways, hold onto possession and go nowhere. "It's not football" has been the complaint from the purists – the game is becoming a hybrid of soccer, rugby and basketball. What the fans want, we're told, is 18 physical one-on-one contests around the ground with lots of long kicks (not handballs) and, of course, lots of goals. One of my work colleagues, a Western Bulldogs fanatic, went to a preseason match in which the Bulldogs kicked just 5 goals, only 1 after half time, and said it was as boring as watching soccer – it has to rain goals.

Every year since 1994, at least 1 team has finished in the top 4 having missed the finals the previous year. Normally, it's a young, improving side loaded with high draft picks (that would make Richmond and Carlton the obvious contenders in 2009); sometimes, like Geelong in 2007 and St Kilda in 2008, it's an established side recovering from a 1 year blip (Port Adelaide, who slumped from 2nd to 13th last year fit the bill here).

1 Geelong Forget the grand final result, they were by far the best team in 2008 finishing 16 points clear at the top. Unless they're traumatised by what happened in Septermber, I can't see a team that's won 42 of its last 45 games not finishing top again.

2 Hawthorn For the first time ever, the reigning premiers and the youngest list are the same club. That's not how it's supposed to work. Hawthorn have a squad loaded with high draft picks but those players have matured far quicker than anyone expected. Had more luck last season than any team has a right to expect – as always, discipline on and off field remains a big question mark.

3 Collingwood The run to the preseason cup final seems to have led to extraordinary levels of optimism for the new season. The forward options are impressive but I'm not convinced the defence is good enough. Mind you, I said that about Hawthorn last year.

4 Port Adelaide Had a remarkably high percentage for a bottom 4 team last year and lost 7 games by less than 2 goals. They will improve and, in a tight league, that improvement should be enough to have them shooting up the ladder.

5 Western Bulldogs They tried to get Barry Hall but failed so, once again, the lack of a big forward is a real weakness. Several players are going into the season underdone or coming back from injury. A slow start could be costly and they've been very poor in preseason.

6 Carlton Hawthorn's rapid rise has heightened the expectation on Carlton's high draft pick loaded squad but I can't see them making the top 4. The midfield is outstanding but there's too heavy a reliance on Fevola upfront and the defence is dodgy.

7 Brisbane Looked a top 4 side early last season before falling away. A real unknown quantity with this being Michael Voss' first season as coach but there's a lot of talent in that squad.

8 Richmond Another club with enormous expectations but there are too many doubts about certain players to prerdict a top 8 finish with any confidence – but I'll do it anyway. Ben Cousins might not recapture his best form, Matthew Richardson is 34 and too heavily relied upon and brilliant youngster Trent Cotchin is going to be out for an unspecified number of weeks.

9 St Kilda The premiership window is over. A handful of very good players but no depth and, worryingly, few promising young players. St Kilda haven't had many high draft picks in the last 5 years but what they have had has been horribly wasted. Unlike like previous years when I’ve been overly optimistic, I’m going for a worst case scenario this year. Such is the gulf between the top 2 and everybody else, we could finish as high as 3rd with a bit of luck but, with key defender Max Hudghton already injured, it’ll probably be the same old story.

10 Adelaide Their best players are getting on a bit and it's time to rebuild. Huge problems in the forward line.

11 North Melbourne Perennial overachievers will be passed by younger, improving teams.

12 Sydney They're past it and need to rebuild.

13 Fremantle For the first time in years, entering a season with no-one predicting great things. So they'll probanly finish top 4. Actually, they're rubbish so they won't.

14 Essendon A mixture of excting young players and a handful of top quality 30 plus types. Not a lot in between.

15 West Coast They've got some good young players but a year or two away from being finals contenders again.

16 Melbourne The easiest position on the ladder to predict. They're absolutely terrible and are a few years away from being competitive.

[Guest]

AFL 2009

2009 – Off field issues

Last week, Port Adelaide went to the AFL and asked for $3m in special assistance. Port, who had the lowest average crowds in the AFL last season, lost $1.4m last year and are several million dollars in debt. Assuming the AFL agrees to the request, one quarter of the competition will be on life support with Melbourne, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs receiving millions between them each year. If the proposed expansion into the Gold Coast and Western Sydney goes ahead, then we will have a third of the league getting propped up. To make matters worse, Sydney said this week that, with falling crowds, memberships and corporate hospitality revenues, they could face serious financial problems if they miss the finals this year. They also took another opportunity to have a dig at the AFL's plans for Western Sydney to which they are strongly opposed as are most people who follow the AFL.

On the subject of expansion, nothing is clear cut yet. The Gold Coast club has a coach, a recruitment manager and several young players. It will dominate the 2010 draft. However, at the moment, it doesn't have a suitable ground to play on although yesterday’s Queensland election produced the result the AFL wanted and the Labor Party look set to help fund a new stadium. Gold Coast are due to start in the AFL in 2011.

Western Sydney are due in the league in 2012 but, despite the outward show of unanimity, there are many within the game who believe it's an act of complete stupidity to ignore Tasmania in favour of a location which has zero interest in the sport and which may have an A League team by 2010. It took the best part of 2 decades to truly establish the Swans in Sydney and, even now, they could not survive without their large Melbourne fanbase. Unless Western Sydney is a relocated Melbourne club, they will be starting with a fanbase of nil in area where the game is not part of the culture. It could take a lot more than 2 decades to make the club viable if, indeed, that is ever possible.

It will be interesting to see what impact the economic situation has on attendances. A League crowds dropped by 16% in season 08/09. It's hard to imagine the AFL suffering that much but a fall is inevitable. Clubs having a poor season will likely be hit hardest so the AFL will no doubt be hoping that Collingwood, Carlton and Richmond make the finals.

[Guest]

AFL 2009

This is the AFL's 2009 tv commercial:

[Guest]

AFL 2009

trimster wrote:

Finally, the AFL are famous for changing the rules of the game every year ("innovative management initiatives"), but for once this year they could have come up with a rule change that improves the game. The outlawing of the deliberately rushed behind should keep defenders on their toes- provided the umpires get it right.

This is the second time in recent years the AFL have reacted to a grand final result they didn't like by changing the rules.

After Sydney bored everybody stupid in 2005 with their horrible stop-start tactics, measures were taken to speed the game up such as the quick kick in from a behind.

Hawthorn won last year's grand final after conceding 11 deliberate rushed behinds although, of course, there were other reasons the AFL weren't happy with the outcome of the final that had nothing to do with the way Hawthorn perform on the field.

[Guest]

AFL 2009

trimster wrote:

Frankly, I haven't been paying much attention to club news and couldn't even tell you who won the pre-season cup (it was probably between two Melbourne teams!)

Not quite. Geelong thrashed Collingwood in the final.

[trimster]

AFL 2009

I would have the Crows and Port Power fighting it out for eighth place... and surely at least one WA team will do better than 13th and 15th? WA can't have two bad years in a row.

And I'm sure St Kilda will finish higher than ninth....

[Rory Bunk]

AFL 2009

That is a really bad ad. Pretty, but utter rubbish. The players come out of it looking bereft of any impressive skills.

[trimster]

AFL 2009

Rory Bunk wrote:

That is a really bad ad. Pretty, but utter rubbish. The players come out of it looking bereft of any impressive skills.

It's always been like this, hasn't it? The AFL desperate to convince the rest of the world how fantastic their game is.....but they don't quite believe it themselves, really, so it just comes out as a bit of a fantasy...

[Guest]

AFL 2009

I'm no fan of the advertising industry but, as these things go, I've seen a lot worse than that - last season's A League one comes to mind which, rather amusingly, featured an absolutely jam packed stadium which looked at least as large as the MCG. Now that's a fantasy.

What I don't really understand is the point of the advert. I doubt if people who care about the game need to be reminded that the new season is starting and it's not likely to convert those who enjoy watching two lines of neckless neanderthals bumping into each other.

[Guest]

AFL 2009

The Herald Sun have published a list of the 27 AFL players earning more than $500k. That's 27 out of a total player group of around 700. Geelong, with the best playing group in the competition, have only 2 players on the list, neither of them in the top 10. If you want to play for a really good side, you have to be prepared to make financial sacrifices. If Gary Ablett wanted to earn $1m, I'm sure he'd find a team willing to pay it but he could probably forget about playing in any more grand finals. Hawthorn also have just 2 players on the list again neither in the top 10.

Carlton are paying 25% of the salary cap to just 3 players. The only club not paying anyone $500k are Melbourne – their list is so abysmal they don't have anybody who merits that kind of salary.

$1 million plus
Chris Judd (Carlton)
Jonathan Brown (Brisbane)

$700,000-800,000
Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda)
Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle)
Barry Hall (Sydney)
Matthew Richardson (Richmond)
Matthew Lloyd (Essendon)

$600,000-700,000
Simon Black (Brisbane)
Daniel Kerr (West Coast)
Chad Cornes (Port Adelaide)

$500,000-600,000
Brent Harvey (North Melbourne)
Brad Johnson (Western Bulldogs)
Brendan Fevola (Carlton)
Nick Stevens (Carlton)
Matthew Scarlett (Geelong)
Gary Ablett (Geelong)
Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn)
Luke Power (Brisbane)
Anthony Rocca (Collingwood)
Nathan Brown (Richmond)
Adam Goodes (Sydney)
Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle)
Dean Cox (West Coast)
Scott Lucas (Essendon)
Andrew McLeod (Adelaide)
Luke Ball (St Kilda)

[Rory Bunk]

AFL 2009

It is a bad ad because the point it is trying to make is how great the game is and how amazing its players. The ad for the regular fans has been done much better by Foxtel with their simple "Some People Don't Get It" ad which is much more geared to rusted-on crowd.

Whereas the A-League ad is only trying to pretend that our 3rd tier players are entertaining, it is not trying to make any particular comparison with anyone else. It also helps that in football you can do 'tricks' (even if there's really no one left in the comp to do them, or more precisely the stars of last season usually won't be around to do them this season) whereas in AFL, apart from the flying mark, the skills are done better in other codes.

AFL's main attributes are pretty hard to showcase in an ad form. It's the all-round athleticism being deployed in a massive ground for a long length of time. It's about that physical contact being there, and possibly manifesting itself from any direction, unlike in other heavy contact codes. There is a little bit of finesse here, a bit of pace there, but it's pretty humdrum compared to proper football. They can run with the ball, but without the pace or brutality of Rugby/NFL, ditto for the tackling.

And so on that very slick looking ad, it's what the players do which comes across as a yawn. Perhaps it mirrors the widely held wisdom of AFL not translating as well to TV as the other footballs. Perhaps they should have had Barry Hall in the ring beating soccer players up or something.

[Max Payne]

AFL 2009

Well, I'm looking forward to it....The husband of one of Mrs Max's friends has vowed to convert me to the Western Bulldogs cause... I'm sure the season will be fun

[Guest]

AFL 2009

If you're not doing anything on Thursday night, get yourself in front of the tv for the opening game of the season, Richmond v Carlton. Both of these clubs, the 3rd and 4th best supported in Victoria, have been in the doldrums for years – neither has played in the finals since 2001 and, in the last 7 years, they've picked up 5 wooden spoons between them. Both clubs have now got lots of high draft picks and are expected to make the top 8 this year. Certainly, if Richmond don't, Terry Wallace will be sacked as coach. To add to the intrigue, 2 of the best players of the modern era, West Coast's 2006 premiership side's 2 best players, Chris Judd and Ben Cousins, will playing against each other each other for the first time.

It's the grand final rematch on Friday but Thursday is completely overshadowing it and is ahead on advance ticket sales despite the strange scheduling – there should be at least 75,000 there.

[jason voorhees]

AFL 2009

It's old hat, but great reporting as always MA.

[Havencheese]

AFL 2009

1 - Geelong
2 - Footscray
3 - Hawthorn
4 - St Kilda
5 - Collingwood
6 - Port Adelaide
7 - Richmond
8 - Sydney
9 - Essendon
10 - Adelaide
11 - North Melbourne
12 - Brisbane
13 - Carlton
14 - Fremantle
15 - Melbourne
16 - West Coast

Am I the only person who thinks Carlton are massively overrated? A handful of injuries to certain players and they're in big trouble. Plenty of potential superstars, still little depth.

Voss will learn a lot this year, where as Harvey's position will be scrutinised.

Hawthorn will have to put up with potential hangover.

The Dogs will make a GF but wont trouble a once again hungry Geelong side without distractions this year.

...and as per usual, after a good run, Collingwood will wonderfully implode by about round 16.

[Guest]

AFL 2009

Are Carlton overrated? Probably by the many who have tipped them to finish top 4. It's a bold call to put them in the bottom 4 though.

Remarkably, the MCG is sold out for tomorrow night's game which is good news because Ten will now broadcast it live instead of on a 30 minute delay.

[Guest]

AFL 2009

86,972 turned up on a weekday night to see the return of drug addict Ben Cousins to the AFL and it was a disaster.

He had a fairly quiet first 3 quarters (understandable given he missed a whole season) with just 12 touches. In the final quarter, he tore a hamstring. In his last game for West Coast, in 2007, he also tore a hamstring. Of course, this doesn't prove Richmond were wrong to recruit him but it illustrates what a big gamble it was. Many St Kilda fans have watched with envy over the last few months as Richmond's membership has gone through the roof as they took advantage of St Kilda's shock decision not to take Cousins just days before the draft. Perhaps St Kilda will ultimately be shown to have made the right decision.

Carlton humiliated Richmond by 87 points. Richmond's next 2 games are against Geelong and the Western Bulldogs. It's crisis time already.

[trimster]

AFL 2009

Last night's match turned out to be a typical example of AFL over-hype. Carlton vs Richmond was built up all week as potentially the biggest blockbuster of all time... yet it turns out to be hopelessly one-sided and finishes up as a 14 goal thrashing.

The only amazing thing about it was the crowd... the level of support for such a large number of clubs based in one city surely can't be equalled anywhere else in the world...the Crows, WC Eagles etc should all withdraw from the competition so that Melbournites can concentrate on what is most important- supporting the big ten Melbourne clubs without any interstate distractions....

[Guest]

AFL 2009

Speaking to someone who was at the game last night, he told me that Richmond fans were pouring out of the ground before half time. It was certainly noticeable in the second half that there were gaps in the stands that hadn't been there in the first.

Richmond have only played finals 3 times in the last quarter of a century – the worst record in the competition. The hype obviously persuaded a lot of lapsed supporters to return last night. They might not be back in a hurry. Staying away is probably better than the alternatives – in previous years, Richmond fans have spat on their coach and players as they walked down the tunnel and, famously, a group of them once arranged for a big, steaming pile of shit to be delivered to the club.

[Guest]

AFL 2009

If Thursday night’s season opener was a letdown thanks to Richmond’s astonishing ineptitude, last night’s grand final rematch was a minor classic. It was a brutal, almost spiteful, match with 4 players reported and a level of skill and intensity far removed from Thursday’s fiasco.

For a while, it looked like it would go the same way as the grand final. Geelong dominated early but wasted chances. By half time, both teams had kicked 8 goals but Geelong had registered 16 behinds and Hawthorn just 4. Hawthorn made their decisive break in the grand final in the third quarter, Geelong did the same last night moving out to a 7 goal lead. In the final quarter, however, Hawthorn stormed back to lose by just 8 points.

Hawthorn went into this game undermanned. Had they won, it could have been devastating for Geelong’s confidence. As it is, I suspect Hawthorn will take a lot out of this.

[jamzinho]

AFL 2009

Great thread so far. I had a feeling Port would come back stronger this year, but I don't see them as a top four team. But then I didn't see them as a top two team two seasons back!

I do agree that the Crows will struggle to make the top 8, but it's pleasing to see that they won against Collingwood this morning.

[Guest]

AFL 2009

Round 1
St Kilda 80 Sydney 65
Crowd 32,442

You usually know what you’ll get when St Kilda play Sydney – a low scoring arm wrestle of no interest to the neutral and not a lot better for the committed supporter. What we saw in tonight’s first quarter was remarkable – Sydney had been transformed over the summer months into the poor man’s Geelong. They were attack minded, free scoring and handball happy. Normally, Sydney play slow, stop-start footy with short, methodical, precise kicks and an age spent weighing up all the options. And, of course, a huge emphasis on set plays around the (many) stoppages. It’s torture to watch. Tonight was almost like watching rugby union as a line of Sydney players advanced flicking the ball between themselves leaving St Kilda grasping at fresh air. Sydney kicked the first 4 goals of the game in an astonishing 5 minute burst and led 34-7 at quarter time.

Then, normal service was resumed. Sydney packed their defence for the next 2 quarters scoring a grand total of 2 points in half a game. They went 78 minutes between goals. The second quarter flood limited St Kilda’s scoring options – the Saints dominated the quarter but there were so many bodies in the forward 50, getting a clean mark and a shot on goal was just about impossible. Sydney still led by 8 points at half time.

In the third quarter, Sydney went scoreless as St Kilda kicked 5 goals and blew the game open. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team cross halfway less in a quarter; or, for that matter, in 2 quarters.

St Kilda finished the game off with 3 goals early in the final quarter before easing off and letting Sydney achieve some kind of respectability with 4 late goals.

St Kilda went into the match minus best defender Max Hudghton, best midfielder Lenny Hayes and the best forward, Nick Riewoldt, had calf soreness and spent the last quarter on the bench. The 2 debutants did well – much maligned defender Zac Dawson, discarded by Hawthorn, kept Barry Hall to one goal and Farren Ray, recruited from the Western Bulldogs, added some much needed pace to one of the slowest sides in the AFL. Sadly, Raph Clarke, who was excellent in the second quarter, pinged his hamstring in the third. Clarke’s career has been ruined by injury – he’s also had a major battle coping with epilepsy.

If Geelong and Hawthorn supporters watched this game, they would have had a good laugh.

[Guest]

AFL 2009

jamzinho wrote:

I do agree that the Crows will struggle to make the top 8, but it's pleasing to see that they won against Collingwood this morning.

A great win for Adelaide. It was amusing listening to the radio driving to the St Kilda game tonight - huge numbers of Collingwood fans phoning in blaming the umpires for Adelaide's win and then demanding the sacking of coach Mick Malthouse.

[trimster]

AFL 2009

jamzinho wrote:

Great thread so far. I had a feeling Port would come back stronger this year, but I don't see them as a top four team. But then I didn't see them as a top two team two seasons back!

I do agree that the Crows will struggle to make the top 8, but it's pleasing to see that they won against Collingwood this morning.

Was indeed a gutsy away win for the Crows, and this will be a confidence booster to open the season with. They have a few promising young players coming in, including a guy named Walker who is reputed to be a goal kicking full forward (something the Crows have needed for a long time)- although I did notice him cropping up on the half back flank late in the game!

Much of the opitimism at Port Power seems to be centred around the return of Josh Carr. The real controversy in Adelaide at the moment, however, seems to be centred around AAMI Stadium itself. Firstly, Power fans claim it is always decked out to look like the Crows home ground, and they don't feel at home there. So the solution is to rename some gates after Port legends on Port home match days! Secondly, there is a move to allow people to carry cups of beer to their seats in the stadium- outraging many Crows fans who seem to all belong to some sort of temperance union. They claim to not drink beer (they actually all drink chardonnay in the carpark before the match!) They claim Port fans drink more beer, and will cause trouble at Showdowns. Radio talkback programs are full of people threatening to resign their club memeberships.

Drinking has been allowed at Hindmarsh Stadium for as long as I can remember, and I have never seen any trouble or unpleasantness their as a result of that- so maybe soccer fans are just more mature and sophisticated...