Women’s Semi-Finals
Jelena Ostapenko Lat [12] vs Angelique Kerber Ger [11]
This match will present a fascinating contrast in styles, both of which are proven to be effective on grass. Ostapenko’s approach is to throw the kitchen skin at it, absolutely thump the ball and try and blow her opponent away with the pace of her shots. Kerber’s is too absorb and counter-punch, use the opponent’s pace against them.
Which will work? Well that probably depends on what proportion of the Lativans big strikes find the court. Matches tend to be on her racquet, and I don’t see this as different even with Kerber’s superb defensive skills and previous record of success both in Slam and at Wimbledon. As noted up thread, Angie has a strong run in SW19 every other year at the moment with this Semi appearance backing up runs to the Semis in ’12, Quarters in ’14 and Final two years ago. Despite her titles in Melbourne and New York, London is Kerber’s most consistent hunting ground.
As for Ostapenko, this is new ground as she only made the QFs last year (l to Venus). However given her own court approach and general attitude to the world, as exemplified by winning the French title last year for her first Tour level title, she is unlikely to be fazed by the situation. It’s a Tennis match, go out and whack those little yellow balls.
The players will have to feel each other out a little in the early stages as they have never met before in tournament play. That will make the first games a little more nervy in one sense, but it also gives something else to focus on than the gameplans and thoughts as to what shots should work, what could and what needs to.
My feeling is the key shots are the serves, Ostapenko’s first delivery and Kerber’s second. If Ostapenko can land the big blows on her first strike she can cruise through most of her service games, and if Kerber is missing and having to spin in her second then Jelena will unload on the returns. Which, I think, will prove decisive.
Ostapenko in two.
Julia Goerges Ger [13] vs Serena Williams USA [25] [PR]
First up, we have to congratulate Julia Goerges on making her first ever Grand Slam Semi, and doing so at a venue where she can hardly have arrived brimming with confidence given how it has bitten her on the arse in recent years. But 2018 has been very different, with things really picking up after an epic R3 win against Strycova (10-8 in the third) to peak with turning the Quarter around against Bertens and running away with it in the end.
Peak, though? Wouldn’t eliminating Serena knock all the rest into a cocked hat? Well, absolutely it would but I really don’t see it happening. Goerges’ game is just not quite big enough or reliable enough to live with Serena. I mean we saw that in Paris a few weeks ago when Goerges was on about her best surface, full of confidence and did push hard Williams but ultimately lost 3&4 which was a scoreline that felt like it was written before play had started. And then we found out a couple of days later that Serena had been playing injured for the latter part of the match, and still won anyway!
Serena’s serves too big for Goerges to get enough back in court, she hits her groundstrokes too hard for Goerges to absorb and counter, she moves too well so will get in behind Goerges own big blows and finally she will whale on any tentative second serves, which can come from a player who is sometimes prone to double-faulting when the pressure is on. And there pressure there certainly will be on a first Slam last four appearance.
There is also a pressure, albeit rather a different one, on Serena of course. She is not fighting for herself, but for all sorts of other causes like equal rights, mothers rights, black rights. She clearly feels herself to be doing this, that her success represent something (and she is correct in that assessment, of course). That doesn’t help make the process any more fun, but it can be a driving force to put the necessary work in to make it happen. There have been spells in Serena’s career where her work ethic was somewhat under question, but no longer, she is clearly the most driven player out there. Will she win this? I can only see injury preventing her from doing so.
Williams in two.
Jelena Ostapenko Lat [12] vs Angelique Kerber Ger [11]
This match will present a fascinating contrast in styles, both of which are proven to be effective on grass. Ostapenko’s approach is to throw the kitchen skin at it, absolutely thump the ball and try and blow her opponent away with the pace of her shots. Kerber’s is too absorb and counter-punch, use the opponent’s pace against them.
Which will work? Well that probably depends on what proportion of the Lativans big strikes find the court. Matches tend to be on her racquet, and I don’t see this as different even with Kerber’s superb defensive skills and previous record of success both in Slam and at Wimbledon. As noted up thread, Angie has a strong run in SW19 every other year at the moment with this Semi appearance backing up runs to the Semis in ’12, Quarters in ’14 and Final two years ago. Despite her titles in Melbourne and New York, London is Kerber’s most consistent hunting ground.
As for Ostapenko, this is new ground as she only made the QFs last year (l to Venus). However given her own court approach and general attitude to the world, as exemplified by winning the French title last year for her first Tour level title, she is unlikely to be fazed by the situation. It’s a Tennis match, go out and whack those little yellow balls.
The players will have to feel each other out a little in the early stages as they have never met before in tournament play. That will make the first games a little more nervy in one sense, but it also gives something else to focus on than the gameplans and thoughts as to what shots should work, what could and what needs to.
My feeling is the key shots are the serves, Ostapenko’s first delivery and Kerber’s second. If Ostapenko can land the big blows on her first strike she can cruise through most of her service games, and if Kerber is missing and having to spin in her second then Jelena will unload on the returns. Which, I think, will prove decisive.
Ostapenko in two.
Julia Goerges Ger [13] vs Serena Williams USA [25] [PR]
First up, we have to congratulate Julia Goerges on making her first ever Grand Slam Semi, and doing so at a venue where she can hardly have arrived brimming with confidence given how it has bitten her on the arse in recent years. But 2018 has been very different, with things really picking up after an epic R3 win against Strycova (10-8 in the third) to peak with turning the Quarter around against Bertens and running away with it in the end.
Peak, though? Wouldn’t eliminating Serena knock all the rest into a cocked hat? Well, absolutely it would but I really don’t see it happening. Goerges’ game is just not quite big enough or reliable enough to live with Serena. I mean we saw that in Paris a few weeks ago when Goerges was on about her best surface, full of confidence and did push hard Williams but ultimately lost 3&4 which was a scoreline that felt like it was written before play had started. And then we found out a couple of days later that Serena had been playing injured for the latter part of the match, and still won anyway!
Serena’s serves too big for Goerges to get enough back in court, she hits her groundstrokes too hard for Goerges to absorb and counter, she moves too well so will get in behind Goerges own big blows and finally she will whale on any tentative second serves, which can come from a player who is sometimes prone to double-faulting when the pressure is on. And there pressure there certainly will be on a first Slam last four appearance.
There is also a pressure, albeit rather a different one, on Serena of course. She is not fighting for herself, but for all sorts of other causes like equal rights, mothers rights, black rights. She clearly feels herself to be doing this, that her success represent something (and she is correct in that assessment, of course). That doesn’t help make the process any more fun, but it can be a driving force to put the necessary work in to make it happen. There have been spells in Serena’s career where her work ethic was somewhat under question, but no longer, she is clearly the most driven player out there. Will she win this? I can only see injury preventing her from doing so.
Williams in two.
Comment