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Johnr's 2018 racing thread

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Fair play to Geraghty, 40 is old for a jump jockey, their bodies are pretty much done by then.

    Mark Walsh would seem to be next cab on the rank for McManus, but he's 34 already so not one for the future, and he's certainly never been able to transfer Irish form to the British festivals as Geraghty did. Rachael Blackmore is the best jockey, but both Elliot and Mullins seem to have her lined up should she decide to part company with de Bromhead.

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  • George
    replied
    JP on the lookout for a new retained jockey after Barry Geraghty announced his retirement from riding.

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  • George
    replied
    Romantic isn't it. I believe Covering Shed is the traditional terminology on this side of the Atlantic, whilst Breeding Barn is the preferred description in the US.

    Aside from the Coral Eclipse (race of the season so far) today also sees the running of both the Prix du Jockey Club and the Prix De Diane at picturesque Chantilly. Historically the French equivalents of the Derby and Oaks, although they both had their distances shortened by one and a half furlongs 15 years ago.

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  • Sporting
    replied
    I know now what a covering barn is!

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  • George
    replied
    Originally posted by jwdd27 View Post
    And, whisper it, I also don't fully understand everything in this thread - I prefer jump racing, where the lineage of the horse is of less significance, so George 's ruminations on the breeding side are useful and educational for me. Jump horses are gelded well before they prove their worth, so there's never a situation where the sire of a horse has any jump form (although they can often be flat champions), and the dam is quite often fairly obscure. But it's not completely irrelevant, so it's a side of the game I need to improve on.
    The French have a number of National Hunt stallions who raced over hurdles at a young age before retiring to the covering barn (and their stock Is increasingly successful in jumps racing on this side of the Channel), in fact I believe they have a race program in place to encourage keeping young jumps colts 'entire'. There are tentative signs some breeders in the UK/IRE would like to replicate this. The unfortunate Sir Erec who broke down at last year's Champion Hurdle was ungelded, and the family who owned the highly successful NH stallion Midnight Legend have kept one of his last son's entire in the hope it can win some decent races and continue his old man's legacy.


    Last edited by George; 05-07-2020, 08:29.

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  • George
    replied
    It's a reasonable question. For me personally the three-year old ''Classic Generation' are the glue which holds together the narrative of the flat season, and nothing gives the season more impetus than very good to great horses coming out of the classics and then trouncing the older beasts in the all age races from July onwards. It's why the most historically noteworthy years tend to be those that throw up outstanding 3yo's: 1970 for Nijinsky, 1971 for both Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerrard (truly a golden age) and 2011 for Frankel and that performance in the 2000 Guineas.

    Occasionally, relative outsiders can go on to be excellent horses and rack up G1 races - Generous Is one such example from 1991, but they're few and far between. Usually it's a case of having one day in the sun which is never replicated and it all ends up feeling like a fluke - and when like yesterday that fluke is part of Coolmore/Ballydoyle it's highly dissatisfying. Even more so when you consider how the race was ran tactically.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Originally posted by Sporting View Post
    I know next to nothing about horse racing but still enjoy this thread. I'm a bit curious as to why outsiders who win Group 1 races seem not to be more celebrated as unexpected champions in other sports are. Or am I missing something?
    The closest analogy for me would be the "anyone can beat anyone on their day" cliche in football. Watford beat Liverpool this season, but no one would take that result and suggest that Watford are now challenging for the Premier League and European glory. They executed their game plan well, and caught their better opponents on an off day. Serpentine is Watford, and next time it runs it will be well beaten by the equine equivalent of Crystal Palace or Southampton (or Fulham, or Reading, most likely).

    And, whisper it, I also don't fully understand everything in this thread - I prefer jump racing, where the lineage of the horse is of less significance, so George 's ruminations on the breeding side are useful and educational for me. Jump horses are gelded well before they prove their worth, so there's never a situation where the sire of a horse has any jump form (although they can often be flat champions), and the dam is quite often fairly obscure. But it's not completely irrelevant, so it's a side of the game I need to improve on.

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  • Sporting
    replied
    I know next to nothing about horse racing but still enjoy this thread. I'm a bit curious as to why outsiders who win Group 1 races seem not to be more celebrated as unexpected champions in other sports are. Or am I missing something?

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  • George
    replied
    1st: 25/1
    2nd: 50/1
    3rd: 66/1

    The Derby, which is supposedly the ''Crown Jewel of the Flat Season'' badly needs a noteworthy victor. There was arguably only one seriously good winner in the last decade (Golden Horn), and there hasn't been a great one since Sea the Stars. The consequences of Coolmore monopolising the best middle distance bloodlines is becoming more apparent - and it goes much deeper than the fact they have Galileo standing in Co. Tipperary. Because there's no limit on the number of runner's connections can declare it allows Ballydoyle to throw shit at the wall in the knowledge some of its going to stick, and in recent years we've seen 3rd and 4th string horses winning. It's had a profoundly negative affect on both The Derby and Oaks as spectacles.

    If possible I would put your Ascot winnings on Serpentine never winning another Group 1.
    Last edited by George; 05-07-2020, 06:55.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Absolutely. On the one hand it proves nobody knows anything, a horse running its second race under a nomark jockey who hasn't even ridden a winner for 9 months and it absolutely destroys the field.
    On the other hand there's some jockeys back in the pack who gave him far too much rope, probably thinking that the horses up there with him had it in hand (not realising that they themselves were longshots just out for the run). They'll be disappointed with themselves, although most of them didn't really stay 1m4 anyway by the look of it.

    Mrs D had Khalifa Sat at 50s, so that softened the blow a bit.

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  • George
    replied
    Joke of a race.

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  • George
    replied
    Both market leaders have got a bit washy. Not a great sign.

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  • George
    replied
    You've got Tabor and Smith punting big sums on their own horses whenever they have a good'un, so the price is always suggestive.

    Don't know what to make of the Derby. Suspect Kameko won't stay, English King has a bad draw but Dettori should get him in to a decent position to win if he's good enough. It's going to be another fucking Ballydoyle horse TBH.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Yes, 11/10 now looks a bit generous rather than "skinny" as some rubbish pundits had it. BetVictor gave me a free bet as predicted so I'm nicely up on the deal.

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  • George
    replied
    Potential Arc winner klaxon - that's a seriously good filly.

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  • George
    replied
    Ennistymon ran on well in second behind Frankly Darling at Ascot so is worth a small outlay at 11/2. Love's pedigree is typical of the Galileo's Coolmore are breeding nowadays, with more speed on the Dam's side to counter the sire's middle distance heritage*. See looked a decent 1000 Guineas winner but Frankly Darling is proven at 12 furlongs and it's possible she out stays Love due to superior stamina. At Ascot Gosden's horses were conditioned far better than O'Brien's, but I expect that gap to have narrowed over the last fortnight.

    *The Galileo/Pivotal cross, which is proven and highly successful.
    Last edited by George; 04-07-2020, 09:46.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Derby Day, and the Oaks too.

    English King looked a good bet, hence Dettori's unceremonious jocking off of Marquand, but he's got the graveyard draw of stall 1. He'll probably still go off favourite due to weight of jockey recognition, which provides value elsewhere. Mogul should be a Derby horse but was disappointing at Ascot.
    I'll go each way on Vatican City, although 8/1 is short for a Padraig Beggy ride. I've foolishly based that on reading between the lines of O'Brien's pre-match briefing, that he expects a big run.

    Love is the obvious choice for the Oaks but 11/10 is skinny, I prefer Ennistymon, but might throw a free bet at Love if I get one, which I will.

    After a successful Ascot I predictably have embarked on a long losing streak, developing an uncanny knack of picking the horse to finish last.

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  • George
    replied
    Always pleasant to see that industrial scale juicer Baffert not win a major race in the US.

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  • ursus arctos
    replied
    Commercial considerations have meant that the US is proceeding with its Triple Crown, though under highly unusual conditions.

    No fans, of course, but also a radically different calendar that has the Belmont first and the Preakness not being run until October. The Belmont was also shortened, given that the horses haven't had an opportunity to build. To the usual mile and a half, but still produced news, as we had our first New York-trained winner since 1882.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Dettori also ended up top jockey at the meeting with those wins, which is a fine achievement. At his age (50 in December) it can't have been easy staying fit during lockdown, so to come out of it still at the top of his game is remarkable. For all of the clowning and the showmanship, he's still a fearsome competitor once he's on a horse.

    Thatcher was prime minister when he rode his first Royal Ascot winner.

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  • steveeeeeeeee
    replied
    Like many punters, I did a Dettori accumulator today consisting of ?2 free bet spread over 3 doubles and a treble. Stood to win ?65 and could have cashed out for ?32, Ended up with ?15 from the double, so can't complain too much.

    Also got another 33/1 we shot come good in the 4:50, so another good day, ?20 winnings in total.

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  • George
    replied
    Good point, and it's the reason why Willie Mullins* has targeted some of these staying handicaps in recent years.

    *Gets a lot of the best French bred NH stock.


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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Ha, might not be a bad call, he's pretty much in the second tier on the jumps scene now behind Henderson and Nicholls. He was dominant for a year or so early in his career with the likes of My Way de Solzen and Voy por Ustedes, with Choc Thornton as his jockey, but has never reached those heights since.

    Obviously all his flat success is with 4yo+ hurdlers who are fast enough to compete on the flat scene, with superior stamina to the flat horses usually pretty much a given.

    There are quite a few jumpers getting chucked into the flat races at the moment which shakes it up a bit, because it's rare that the form is transferable so the odds can be attractive. Although a lot of them lose badly when there's a proper pace to the race.

    I've had 3 consecutive profitable days now, it's starting to worry me.

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  • George
    replied
    Jumps trainer Alan King had five runners at RA - The record: 12151. The man should switch codes.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Plan A with Haggas didn't pan out for me, but the second string bets came through, judicious use of a free bet on Art Power (not all KP horses are rubbish), plus The Lir Jet and then Ventura Power placing at 50/1, in a multiple with Santiago (W) and West End Charmer (P), and some wins at Newmarket and on the evening rubbish.
    Two days of feast. Famine is coming.

    Khaadem for the big one tomorrow.

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