Johnr's 2018 racing thread

[George]

Those two beaten favourites were very disappointing considering one (Victor Lundorum) has been a well fancied potential Classic winner throughout the winter and the other (Sottsass) won last year's Prix Du Jockey Club and was third in the Arc.
The filly who won the G3 race Tropbeau is an admirable sort. Third in last year’s Cheveley Park Stakes (major G1 race for 2yo fillies), she's now won three group races in France and is priced as low as 6/4 for the French 1000 Guineas.

I also understand there's been some classic 'French Ridings Tactics' on display today. Those who are familiar with international racing are well accustomed to the more laid back horsemanship often found there, but the paucity of sports betting opportunities in recent weeks has no doubt seen many who are not piling into today's card. It's an education of sorts, especially for those punters who are now facing a daily diet of beans on toast for the remainder of the month.

[jwdd27]

The favourites shit the bed at Longchamp, very heavy rain overnight levelled the playing field somewhat. I had a nice 10/1 winner late in the card though.

The BHA have been given a date of June 1 *at the earliest* for a resumption.

[jwdd27]

The French are vertes for go tomorrow, despite a last minute wobble by Macron caused by lobbying from football, who were asking what happened to the "no sport until September" ruling.

I'm sure the BHA/HRI will watch with interest to see how they can get something similar off the ground.

Looking forward to having a bet, have been dry apart from an occasional (actually fairly profitable) dip into Belarus football. The strategy will be longshots. Or maybe favourites.

[jwdd27]

It sounds like HRI have seriously dropped the ball by getting themselves out of Varadkar's loop, and allowing themselves to be treated as a sport instead of lobbying to be treated as an industry.

The BHA's plans are indeed ambitious, but UK governments have long been in the pocket of the gambling industry, so there'll probably be something happening by the end of the month.

Jockeys seem to be practically immune to the virus so far, which some have attributed to all those saunas. Don't tell Trump.

[George]

Authorisation given...

https://twitter.com/EddeRothschild/status/1257259020370526208

...and since it's the Parisian Police who've signed off on this it appears Longchamp rather than Deauville will host the card next Monday. Ten races scheduled in total - four of them group races. The initial burst of joy from degenerate gamb...'Pro Punters' tempered by the realisation that a much earlier start time of 9:25am means a clash with Homes Under the Hammer.

Meanwhile at The Curragh, earlier confidence that racing in Ireland could commence from the 18th of May appears to have taken a knock.

https://twitter.com/RacingPost/status/1256644625273483271

If the opening sentence in the tweet is accurate it doesn't reflect well on the HRI, which has mentioned above is a semi-state body.

In the UK the BHA have proposed an ambitious schedule to resume racing on the weekend of the 23rd-24th, with eleven group and listed races. The following weekend would have eight group and listed races and the first weekend of June would see the running of both Guineas and the Coronation Cup (usually ran on Oaks Day at Epsom). The possibility of these races being ran at their usual and multiple locations is slim to non-existent, instead condensed cards at designated regional racecourses seems the most likely scenario. It's all dependent on the OK being given from various public bodies anyway.
Despite all this much of the attention over the last week has been on leaked emails originally sent to the BHA consisting of criticism from a number of trainers towards it's outgoing Chief Executive Nick Rust. Mark 'Braveheart' Johnston and Ralph 'Rafe' Beckett the most trenchant.

[George]

A state monopoly on fags that lasted until the mid-90's. I tell yer, France - it's like another country.

[ursus arctos]

Reminiscent of the official French attitude towards tobacco when the state monopoly was still in place.

[George]

It looks increasingly likely that French Horse Racing could be the first sport to return in Western Europe, with it's governing body France Galop pencilling in a behind-closed doors meet at Deauville on the 11th of May as the starting date should the green light be given. Hardly anybody in France gave a shit about attending race days (unless it's the trotting) before the virus so not attracting people under the current circumstances wouldn't be an issue. Despite the pitiful on-course attendances the sport is well funded through a state run Tote monopoly operating under the pari-mutuel system.

Yesterday's decision to cancel all sporting fixtures in the country until September wouldn't affect the gee-geez, has it's not officially considered a ''sport'' and comes under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Agriculture instead. It's a similar situation in Ireland where the HRI is a semi-state body under the umbrella of the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development. Both benefitting from having large bloodstock industries attached to them.

[George]

Pinatubo is another high class son of Shamardal, who alongside Sheikh Mo's beloved Dubawi is the best stallion Darley/Godolphin have. He's also a completely private one, only covering mare's belonging to the organisation and no outside one's. That's highly unusual and suggests some physical frailties (rumoured to be dodgy legs) that will limit his time as a stallion. The boys in blue understandably want to make hay while they can.

Darley/Godolphin's decision to monopolise Shamardal's offspring could well end up being vindicated as the stallion's been PTS at the age of 18. The rumoured health issues are vaguely alluded to in the press release. Expect bidding wars to erupt on any yearlings that come onto the open market - if we still have an economy to speak of once this is all over of course.

https://twitter.com/DarleyEurope/status/1250789185096744960

It's also worth keeping an eye on what the medium to long term future is for Darley/Godolphin given the criminal antics of it's

patriarch, has revealed in a recent court case involving his estranged wife . Don't expect the BHA or any other authority to rock the boat though.

On the actual racing front the 1000/2000 Guineas (first weekend of May), Derby and Oaks (first weekend of June) have all been postponed with the Jockey Club looking at rescheduling sometime later in the year (if at all). The latter two races are a particular problem because a significant part of Epsom racecourse is public land, which anybody can wander onto. It would be extremely difficult to fully secure the entire site and prevent public congregation in places. Similar issue at Doncaster with the St Leger and also with York. In the unlikely event that Royal Ascot (third week of June) does go ahead it will be behind closed doors.

[jwdd27]

Standard Henderson bullshit which pushes the price nicely out, 3/1 in places now which is ridiculous for a minor, very treatable bit of lameness 3 days out. In my opinion.

[Paul S]

Even worse news, Altior may not run at Cheltenham and is currently lame:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/51790655

[Guy Profumo]

As there's not a "this year's racing thread"


It seems things might not all be well at the headquarters of the sport of kings -

Newmarket fear possible repercussions over Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...t-horse-racing

[jwdd27]

The "it might all get cancelled" scare has become an annual fixture in the Cheltenham build-up.

The UK government's view at the moment is that protecting the economy from damage is more important than public health, and in this case, long may it continue.

But any severe escalation and they would have to think about it.

I wonder if running the festival with no spectators would be an option? Switzerland have banned gatherings of over 1,000, but I bet stable staff, media, groundstaff etc would tip over that even without anyone paying on the gate.

It will go ahead as planned, I'm sure.

[Paul S]

Two weeks until the Cheltenham Gold Cup and I'm beginning to get a bit excited, but I do wonder what will happen with this coronovirus.

[jwdd27]

Henderson is getting some almighty flak for announcing Altior's removal from the Kempton field on his (betting company) blog, before actually officially informing the BHA. A bit naughty, and the BHA sent their own vet out to confirm the injury.

Altior should win at Cheltenham, and now he's actually been defeated the odds might actually make him worth backing, although you won't get rich.
I saw Altior win the "legendary" Supreme in 2016, with nearly everything he beat going on to win big races, since then it's always been about him doing just enough to win, without producing a performance for the ages. Maybe this year.

The Cheltenham tingles are definitely starting. 9 weeks.

[Paul S]

Altior not racing at Kempton this Saturday, but instead is aiming for Cheltenham in March. I can't wait to see this horse race in the flesh.

[jwdd27]

Lostintranslation had a bit of a shocker, far too many mistakes (including jockey mistakes, Power changed line at the wrong time and lost three lengths) and then landed on top of a fence near the end which meant game over. A pity, because as I had surmised, Cyrname was there for the beating, and well done to Twiston-Davies and Clan des Obeaux. Cobden made the wrong call, which re-inforces that you should never, ever take the jockey's choice into account. They are as clueless as the rest of us.

Just about broke even for the day (translation: lost, but not badly), helped quite a bit by Rachael Blackmore doing the business on Notebook in Ireland.

[Paul S]

Back from a fabulous day out at Kempton Park. The atmosphere was really good and I paid extra for the Premier Enclosure which meant I was beside the finish line and had a decent view of the big screen. I also managed to get to the back of the terrace which meant the rain was kept off by the roof. Lostintranslation losing was a but of a bummer and I lost £27 in total today but won £27.50. One further note, why do people park in the middle of racecourses? It takes an age to get away. My tip for parking at Kempton Park is to park in Sunbury Way at the next junction up where you can lgeally bump your car wheel up the kerb. Then it is a 15-20 minute walk back along the footway to the racecourse entrance. When it came to leaving I walked back in my car and straight back onto the dual carriageway, no delays. Meanwhile the people who parked in the racecourse....!

[steveeeeeeeee]

I'm still yet to back a winner at Kempton. Got my stake back on the King George via betway's offer.

[Paul S]

[longeared]

I enjoyed that race that ITV showed from Wetherby, purely for the horse that started so late it was almost participating in the next race, barely mustered enough speed to be able to clear the first, and then got pulled up.

[steveeeeeeeee]

I went about 10 years ago, there were engineering works, so Kempton Park station was closed, so had to get bus from Richmond. Bit of a nightmare and lost every race. Good atmosphere, nice crowd.

I've been unlucky so far, Danny Whizbang and Hold the Note were both running well before they were impeded by fallen horses. Elixir de Nutz e/w for 14:40 and then Cyrname for the King George.

[Paul S]

[Paul S]

I'm big on Lostintranslation as well because there is a LOT of rain due to fall over the next few hours which will suit this horse more than the others.

[jwdd27]

Should be a good day, enjoy.
I'm big on Lostintranslation in the big one, a very impressive jumper and more sure to stay than Cyrname, who I also don't like because he beat my beloved Altior.
Eragon de Chanay in the last one is my saver at big odds.
Looking forward to the 10 race meetings tomorrow, after a nice 4 day break with no racing at all.