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Johnr's 2018 racing thread

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    #76
    A friend of mine worked in a bookies (in Liverpool) during university. He despised National day as it was much busier than normal, and the average transaction time was much longer because the non-regulars needed to be talked through how to make a bet.

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      #77
      I'm wishing it wasn't a three day festival, not had a winner in the first two days.

      I dislike Aintree intensely. Horses that proved themselves poor at Cheltenham suddenly turn it round and win and vice versa, to an extent - only Pentland Hills has managed the double so far.
      A feature of the first two days is horses winning who I, and quite a few pundits, had assumed were a busted flush - Kalashnikov, Supasundae, Lostintranslation, Min...

      I once had a colleague who also worked in a bookies at the weekend, and he told of his regular punters coming in on National day accompanied on this one day by their wives, and them going through a charade of pretending they weren't quite sure how to place a bet, asking my colleague how the slip should be filled out etc

      Heart and head both say Tiger Roll tomorrow, plus Ramses de Teillee, Monbeg Notorious and Regal Encore for places.

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        #78
        Only 2 dead horses today. Enjoy your betting tomorrow .

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          #79
          Doing OK at Aintree so far, much better than Cheltenham.

          Walk in the Mill looks good for e/w @ 28/1. I think Tiger Roll has too much weight, though I'd love to see him do it.

          (nmrfox, I respect your opinions and interventions - the only reason I'm not engaging here is because I've done it a few times over the years, on various threads, and it generally turns out as 'never the twain'.)

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            #80
            I'm having an absolute shocker. I was going to give it a miss completely, but took up first televised race back as a free bet off. Lost on Thursday and Friday and have lost most of my free bets today. Only the national left.

            I've £4 on Tiger Roll (was going to be my only bet, did it a while back with money left over after a successful Cheltenham)
            £2 Mala Beach (messed up was meant to be £2 ew)
            Then Coral offered me two £1 free bets on the national, so I've done:
            Rathvinden & Joe Farrell

            I expect to see nothing in return...

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              #81
              Stick a pin it racing. Drew two longshots at 66s and 80s in the work sweepstakes.

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                #82
                I have split my bets backing Anibale Fly and a couple of quid on 8 Minella Rocco. Looking forward to it!

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                  #83
                  I thought Tiger Roll was impressive at Cheltenham, but that was something else.

                  Come out marginally ahead with the bookies after a very poor few days.

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                    #84
                    What happened to Vintage Clouds? He fell at the first and they avoided it second time round. But I've been told he walked back to the paddock okay so I'm wondering what happened.

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                      #85
                      Originally posted by Paul S View Post
                      What happened to Vintage Clouds? He fell at the first and they avoided it second time round. But I've been told he walked back to the paddock okay so I'm wondering what happened.
                      Because Up for Review was already dead.

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                        #86
                        Vintage Clouds fell and brought down Up for Review, whose leg was broken in the process. Bit of a freak accident as it wasn't a race with a lot of fallers, and jockeys weren't taking unnecessary risks.
                        Aintree might want to think about moving that fence back, as the dash to the first is always a feature and a bit more time for the horses (and jockeys) to settle and spread out would help.

                        So, sickeningly turning to my personal profit from this killer sport: Ornua, If the Cap Fits and Tiger put me about even for the meeting, Tiger Roll was absolutely awesome, a great ride from Russell who is not my cup of tea but very good at his craft. Could have done with Regal Encore sneaking into 6th at 66/1, but musn't grumble.

                        ITV were slightly over excited but great coverage, and Bryony Frost was a really good guest presenter - at first I thought it was going to be her "being a celebrity", but most of her contributions were highly technical insights into jump jockey craft, the type which McCoy, Fitzgerald etc don't really provide.

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                          #87
                          I think the national could do with 30 rather than 40 runners. It might reduce the chances of the pile-up/horse not having time to get out of the way that happens after the first fence.

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                            #88
                            Originally posted by jwdd27 View Post

                            So, sickeningly turning to my personal profit from this killer sport: Ornua, If the Cap Fits and Tiger put me about even for the meeting, Tiger Roll was absolutely awesome,
                            Yeah, well played you.
                            Last edited by nmrfox; 07-04-2019, 09:43.

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                              #89
                              I'm going to put a treble on in your name at Newbury next Saturday Mr Fox.

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                                #90
                                Next week is the Scottish Grand National up at Ayr not Newbury!

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                                  #91
                                  Newbury has a flat card which includes the Greenham (traditional Guineas trial). I much prefer the flat to the jumps, which is in an increasing oddity.

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                                    #92

                                    Originally posted by George;n2052648[/SIZE
                                    Offspring from Lah Ti Dar's family are consistently high class, but do have a tendency to be quite fragile.

                                    ...And this trait now seems to have been inherited by her full brother Too Darn Hot. Last season's champion 2yo colt and a short favourite for this year's 2000 Guineas, he'll now miss the race due to a leg issue and will be aimed at either the Irish 2000G or the Dante at York (big Derby trail) later in May.
                                    The first Classic of the season had already started to cut-up before hand with Godolphin's top prospect Quorto picking up a injury, and the Andre Fabre trained
                                    Persian King almost certainly heading to Longchamp instead, although there remains a slim possibility of him turning up at Newmarket if the ground veers towards soft.
                                    PK's already been out this season winning a French Group 3 in impressive style, and as things stand he's probably the best 3yo colt in Europe. I hope we see him on The Rowley Mile.
                                    Last edited by George; 24-04-2019, 17:44.

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                                      #93
                                      Ruby Walsh has retired from riding with immediate effect after winning the Punchestown Gold Cup this afternoon.

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                                        #94
                                        Guineas weekend at HQ. Due to my own idleness I have no great insight on the fillies race tomorrow, other than hoping Skitter Scatter wins for the great John Oxx (who has suffered a number of lean years after losing patronage from major owners), or failing that either Mot Juste or Star Terms, who are both descendants of the great 80's mare Time Charter. They even race In her old colours


                                        Last edited by George; 04-05-2019, 09:43.

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                                          #95
                                          ….I also have no great insight into today's race other than hoping a Ballydoyle horse doesn't win the bloody thing. The top two in the market are predictably O'Brien horses but neither appear to have the buzz of potential superstar about them. Most of the best horses in this look like they could be sprinters on pedigree, so it shouldn't be surprising if the winner gets it on class despite running on fumes by the end.

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                                            #96
                                            Predictably an O'Brien horse wins it, but the post-race talk will be about the 2nd being a 66/1 shot and the track bias afforded for horses running up the inside rail compared to the middle of the course.

                                            There will now be a month of the traditional deliberations about whether Magna Grecia will run in the Derby, and if he does will he stay the extra half mile distance? The pedigree people will look at his Sire (Invincible Spirit) and say no, but will point out that middle distance stamina comes from his Damsire (Galileo), although the Dam herself won a G3 over sprinting distances. My guess is he doesn't go to Epsom.
                                            Last edited by George; 04-05-2019, 15:31.

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                                              #97
                                              Today's Kentucky Derby, one of the few (sometimes only) days in which the US sports world focuses on horse racing, has occasioned a number of pieces on the existential threat the sport is facing (at least in California) from its "unexplained" death toll.

                                              More prosaically, a lack of a cohesive national leadership - the industry is regulated in 38 different states by 38 different bodies - is often cited. Rather than confront the problem of equine deaths, the industry has done its best to hide them. Animal rights activist Patrick Battuello runs a website dedicated to naming every horse killed on US tracks - a Stakhanovite task carried out by daily scanning of racecard reports and regular Freedom of Information Act filings. He describes the Equine Injury Database (EID) set up by the Jockey Club as little more than a “marketing tool” – undermined by its voluntary nature and the anonymity of the racetrack submissions. “They believe that if they do not put a name to the dead horses the problem won’t seem as bad as it really is,” he says.
                                              There appears to be very little appetite within the "industry" here to adopt the practices that have made racing elsewhere much safer for horses.

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                                                #98
                                                If the tide of race day drugs and other ''medication'' went out, then many US trainers - including some very prominent and successful ones - would be found out to have been swimming in the buff. Utter frauds, and never forget this about Baffert https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/23/sports/despite-the-evidence-trainers-deny-a-doping-problem.html

                                                People tend to have short memories when you train two Triple Crown winners unfortunately.

                                                The spate of fatalities at Santa Anita can't just be blamed on pharmaceuticals. The fondness for breeding speedier, more precocious horses has affected the durability and soundness of the Thoroughbred, but this is a trend which has taken place over many years, even decades. It would be interesting to see the pedigrees of the horses involved though, and there was definitely something wrong with that specific track.

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                                                  #99
                                                  There are no words to describe the Kentucky Derby, except to say that it wasn't 65/1.

                                                  It was $20 to win at 65*/1.

                                                  And we did.

                                                  Thanks to Chart Music, and Blur, and that mental jockey who was a 'bit of a twat'.

                                                  *Taxable. Bummer.

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                                                    After the collective groan upon seeing a Coolmore double in the Guineas last weekend Aiden O'Brien has since followed it up with victories in three traditional Derby trials. The most impressive winner being Sir Dragonet, a son of Camelot who won the Chester Vase by eight lengths. He looks a genuine Derby contender but would need supplementing for the race at a cost of £85000. ''The lads'' should be able to find the cash.
                                                    Today's Lingfield Trial victor Anthony Van Dyck looked a little underwhelming, but was regarded by many over the winter has Ballydoyle's 1st or 2nd pick ''Derby Horse'' coming into this season. His ante-post market price is holding up at 7/8s as well, which is more than can be said for the Dee Stakes winner Circus Maximus - who is friendless at up to 20s in the market. That horse is co-owned by Coolmore but races in the colours of the Niarchos family. It's always instructive to watch where the money is coming down for any O'Brien horse, since both Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith are ex-bookmakers and widely believed to stake large sums on their own horses.

                                                    The two main Oaks trails from the past week were both won by John Gosden trained daughters of Frankel - impressively so as well. Anapurna (Lingfield trial) has an Oaks entry, but Mehdaayih (Cheshire oaks) would need supplementing, which Gosden expects the owner to OK. Hopefully either can secure a first classic for their sire.



                                                    Last edited by George; 11-05-2019, 22:19.

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