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Johnr's 2018 racing thread

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  • George
    replied
    Golden Horde's strong formlines from last year (which were staring me in the face but ignored) are backed up in the Commonwealth Cup. Always good to see Clive Cox win a big race - In a sport full of awful people he seems to be a decent man.

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  • George
    replied
    It's scheduled to continue pissing it down tomorrow so I'm going with Millisle in the Commonwealth Cup due to proven form over soft ground. On the negative side Jessica Harrington's yard is hardly in great form.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Tomorrow looks another good one.

    I'm hoping that what worked with Varian today will work with Haggas tomorrow, looks like he's got a decent bunch and he has an in form James Doyle on board for a couple of them, who will be keen to catch up with Crowley.
    Watched today with Mrs D, and she was quite taken with Doyle when interviewed - she's learning the subtle differences between flat and jumps, the flat boys being slightly more photogenic and also quite a bit less Irish.

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  • steveeeeeeeee
    replied
    Stradivarius was great to watch today.

    I'm also finding things hard to predict and am having greater success with ew bets on the handicaps rather than the usually more predictable group races. Amazingly got the final race right today, 35p ew on Onassis bagged me the best part of ?15. Hayley Turner is a fantastic jockey.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Wow. Well. I have these "feelings" about trainers, or jockeys, or owners nearly every day and they're rarely correct, but the sun even shines on a dog's arse sometimes.

    A very enjoyable and yes, profitable afternoon, I also backed Varian's Mountain Angel and had his Waliyak in the last in an each way multiple.

    Stradivarius seemingly won the Gold Cup by 10 lengths on the bridle, which is both a reflection on how seriously good the horse is, as well as on some lacklustre opposition.

    ITV's coverage pre-race was entertaining, with graphic footage of Stradivarius' pre race "distraction", "excitement" and "coltishness", with insightful live commentary on the erection by Mick Fitz ("He's OK now, it's drawn in"). Lovely stuff.

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  • George
    replied
    Khaloosy, the second piece of the Crowley/Hamdan/Varian puzzle falls into place. A premium rate tipping phone line will be operational soon.

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  • George
    replied
    Outstanding performance from Stradivarius. Three times Gold Cup winner now.

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  • George
    replied
    Never mind, all good stuff, some good fields tomorrow, I like the look of Roger Varian's lot so avoid those.

    It's been a good meet so far for Jim Crowley and the Sheikh Hamdan operation so throwing a few shekels on the Varian horses in both the Jersey and Britannia Stakes is not unreasonable.
    One down with Molatham winning the Jersey Stakes.

    The winner of the Chesham (Battleground) looks like it pulls a beer cart around the gallops at Ballydoyle. A right unit of a 2yo. He's also the first foal out of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Found, which bodes well for her second career as a broodmare.
    Last edited by George; 18-06-2020, 15:04.

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  • George
    replied
    Japan and yesterday's flop Mogul are fittingly full brothers.

    O'Brien has a reputation for getting off to a slow start at the beginning of a flat season, with many fancied runners giving ''it'll come on for the run'' performances on debut before arriving to major races in much better condition as the season rolls on (this is especially true of the 2yo's). Normally this means blowing away the cobwebs at Naas in April or May but he doesn't have that luxury this year. No different to any other trainer of course but some will have adapted better to long standing schedules being thrown out of kilter. Japan for instance is already a two times Group 1 winner so I wouldn't dismiss his chances in any of the big 10f-12f races over the summer.

    It's been a good meet so far for Jim Crowley and the Sheikh Hamdan operation so throwing a few shekels on the Varian horses in both the Jersey and Britannia Stakes is not unreasonable.




    Last edited by George; 17-06-2020, 23:04.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Japan was today's O'Brien flop in the 3.00, although punters this time had learned the lesson and it drifted from odds on overnight to a more realistic 6/4 before fading into 4th.
    I didn't fancy it either, but my pick Barney Roy only went one better for Godolphin.

    It's proving tough to pick winners in these fields, the absence of April and May form meaning it's about guessing a horse might do well rather than having conviction it should do well. Which means piddling stakes for me. I mentioned Barney Roy to a colleague this morning and he whipped out his phone and put ?50 on it, which is just silly, especially as my reputation as a tipster is not great.

    Never mind, all good stuff, some good fields tomorrow, I like the look of Roger Varian's lot so avoid those.

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  • George
    replied
    De Sousa had a rotten time of it there last year as well. He's an admirable and extremely hard working jockey but arguably not at the top level, and it shows in group racing. When he's driving some yoke to the line in a class 5 handicap at Brighton it's a different matter. Of course, it would be unfair to lay the blame solely on him and it's just as likely that King Power have spent a fortune on average bloodstock.
    Last edited by George; 17-06-2020, 07:06.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    Indeed, although I prefer that to happen in races where I haven't backed said "certainty".

    A fairly disappointing day was rescued by Coeur de Lion in the last, which won at 16s, meaning some chips were grudgingly shoved back my way to play again tomorrow. Thanks, Hammer.

    Interesting to see the King Power horse bringing up the rear in the King Edward, they seem to be really struggling - apart from my Love Powerful mentioned above (which I backed without spotting the ownership), they've barely had a winner*, despite seemingly having a runner in every other race. I'm starting to wonder if De Sousa has shot it - Balding has been doing OK otherwise.

    Of course having typed all this, I've now double bluffed myself and I'm obligated to back Group One Power and Fox Power at Ascot tomorrow. Decent odds too.

    * just checked, it's 2 winners out of 31, which is as bad as my strike rate at picking winners.

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  • George
    replied
    Ballydoyle's ''Derby Horse''and 10/11 on favourite gets turned over by an 18/1 outsider* in the King Edward VII Stakes. Splendid stuff - more of it please.

    *Unsold at ten thousand Guineas as a yearling and out of a mare who ran her final race over hurdles at Fontwell.
    Last edited by George; 16-06-2020, 14:23.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    I didn't back it, unsurprisingly.
    "Gelded since 26 length defeat on debut" and an RPR of 16 (sixteen) is not much of a profile to go on.

    Biggest winner I remember backing was 66/1 a year or so back, but that was a punt on a name (Citta d'Oro, IIRC) and have had 100/1 shots sneak a place a few times.

    Tonight however I am basking in tipping Love Powerful in the 6.00 at Leicester, got it at 25s, it won at 16s.

    It's been famine and feast for me since the resumption, but early season on the flat is always tough, especially for a jump boy like myself.

    Ascot should be good fun without the Royals and the fashion wankers getting in the way. Strategy, avoid Dettori, pick Godolphin second and third stringers for value.
    I'm liking Mick Channon's horses at the moment. He's not exactly awash with winners, but doing better than usually and often good value, so I'll keep an eye on any Ascot runners of his.

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  • Paul S
    replied
    Bloody hell, there was a 200-1 winner in the 4.10 at Newbury this afternoon. Intercessor ridden by Cieren Fallon claimed the win, the first 200-1 winner since 2016. Still not enough to break the all-time record of 250-1 at Kelso in 1990.

    Jockey Cieren Fallon helps claim a slice of history at Newbury on Saturday as his mount Intercessor triumphs at odds of 200-1.

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  • Sporting
    replied
    Originally posted by Paul S View Post

    Edited to add: The pound sign comes out as a question mark. I wonder why.
    Indonesians.

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  • Paul S
    replied
    I'm looking forward to it as well. I tried online betting about 8 years ago but I didn't get any fun out of it as I discovered the real joy for me was getting that nice crisp ?10 note in my hand. Adding ?10 to my bank account doesn't really feel like I've won anything but I may give it a go again so that I have something to do. Small stakes, so ?2 bets for me, but I just want something to look forward to.

    Edited to add: The pound sign comes out as a question mark. I wonder why.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    So Racing becomes the first sport to return on Monday, and will pretty much have the stage to itself for the next couple of weeks, especially next weekend at Newmarket. Will be interesting to see how the sport and the public respond to that. They go again at Newcastle on Tuesday, with Kempton joining in, then Yarmouth and Kempton Wednesday, Newcastle (again) and Newmarket Thursday, Newmarket and Lingfield Friday, and Newmarket, Lingfield and Newcastle (again) next Saturday.

    I'm looking forward to it, the French have whetted the appetite somewhat, although picking a winner has been tricky for the reasons George intimated above.

    A Monday afternoon all weather meeting at Newcastle would normally struggle to drum up much interest from trainers, especially outside of the north, but 369 horses were initially entered for the proposed 7 races, which has now expanded to 10 races and 120 runners.

    Betting strategy - one would assume that the big stables have more/better staff and facilities to keep their horses fit in lockdown, but does mean the attention the individual horse receives is diluted, are you better off looking at the small operations? Plus it's a new season, last year's 3yo wonder horse could be a no hoper this year, and vice versa.

    I'll be keeping the stakes small and going with my favoured jockeys, trainers and namings.

    Ice Pyramid, 5.05 is Monday's banker.

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  • George
    replied
    Those two beaten favourites were very disappointing considering one (Victor Lundorum) has been a well fancied potential Classic winner throughout the winter and the other (Sottsass) won last year's Prix Du Jockey Club and was third in the Arc.
    The filly who won the G3 race Tropbeau is an admirable sort. Third in last year’s Cheveley Park Stakes (major G1 race for 2yo fillies), she's now won three group races in France and is priced as low as 6/4 for the French 1000 Guineas.

    I also understand there's been some classic 'French Ridings Tactics' on display today. Those who are familiar with international racing are well accustomed to the more laid back horsemanship often found there, but the paucity of sports betting opportunities in recent weeks has no doubt seen many who are not piling into today's card. It's an education of sorts, especially for those punters who are now facing a daily diet of beans on toast for the remainder of the month.
    Last edited by George; 11-05-2020, 21:46.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    The favourites shit the bed at Longchamp, very heavy rain overnight levelled the playing field somewhat. I had a nice 10/1 winner late in the card though.

    The BHA have been given a date of June 1 *at the earliest* for a resumption.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    The French are vertes for go tomorrow, despite a last minute wobble by Macron caused by lobbying from football, who were asking what happened to the "no sport until September" ruling.

    I'm sure the BHA/HRI will watch with interest to see how they can get something similar off the ground.

    Looking forward to having a bet, have been dry apart from an occasional (actually fairly profitable) dip into Belarus football. The strategy will be longshots. Or maybe favourites.

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  • jwdd27
    replied
    It sounds like HRI have seriously dropped the ball by getting themselves out of Varadkar's loop, and allowing themselves to be treated as a sport instead of lobbying to be treated as an industry.

    The BHA's plans are indeed ambitious, but UK governments have long been in the pocket of the gambling industry, so there'll probably be something happening by the end of the month.

    Jockeys seem to be practically immune to the virus so far, which some have attributed to all those saunas. Don't tell Trump.

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  • George
    replied
    Authorisation given...

    https://twitter.com/EddeRothschild/status/1257259020370526208

    ...and since it's the Parisian Police who've signed off on this it appears Longchamp rather than Deauville will host the card next Monday. Ten races scheduled in total - four of them group races. The initial burst of joy from degenerate gamb...'Pro Punters' tempered by the realisation that a much earlier start time of 9:25am means a clash with Homes Under the Hammer.

    Meanwhile at The Curragh, earlier confidence that racing in Ireland could commence from the 18th of May appears to have taken a knock.

    https://twitter.com/RacingPost/status/1256644625273483271

    If the opening sentence in the tweet is accurate it doesn't reflect well on the HRI, which has mentioned above is a semi-state body.

    In the UK the BHA have proposed an ambitious schedule to resume racing on the weekend of the 23rd-24th, with eleven group and listed races. The following weekend would have eight group and listed races and the first weekend of June would see the running of both Guineas and the Coronation Cup (usually ran on Oaks Day at Epsom). The possibility of these races being ran at their usual and multiple locations is slim to non-existent, instead condensed cards at designated regional racecourses seems the most likely scenario. It's all dependent on the OK being given from various public bodies anyway.
    Despite all this much of the attention over the last week has been on leaked emails originally sent to the BHA consisting of criticism from a number of trainers towards it's outgoing Chief Executive Nick Rust. Mark 'Braveheart' Johnston and Ralph 'Rafe' Beckett the most trenchant.



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  • George
    replied
    A state monopoly on fags that lasted until the mid-90's. I tell yer, France - it's like another country.

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  • ursus arctos
    replied
    Reminiscent of the official French attitude towards tobacco when the state monopoly was still in place.

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