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Johnr's 2018 racing thread

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    Johnr's 2018 racing thread

    One for those of us who dip in and out of racing.

    The Lincoln is about to start. That's a proper race, for sure. Anybody else watching?

    #2
    The winner looked like a potential group horse in the making. Shame ITV couldn't hang around for the Brocklesby.

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      #3
      Won easily, didn't it?

      The top weight coming second ran well too.

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        #4
        Good to see venerable old stick Gabriel running on in fourth as well.

        After wetting the appetite of flat lovers it's pretty much gruel from now up until The Craven in mid-April. However the sand larks do have their big shindig at the AW Championships at Lingfield on Good Friday and it's The Dubai World Cup the day after, if you're that way inclined.

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          #5
          Probably of minimal interest but the Coolmore/Ballydoyle juggernaut looks to have a major player in this years Kentucky Derby. I don't believe a UK or IRE trained horse as ever won the race. Incidentally it clashes with the 2000 Guineas - Will Ryan Moore be at Newmarket that day?

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            #6
            https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...-marauder-2001

            Grand National course may be wettest since Red Marauder’s win in 2001
            Only four finished in 2001, two of those remounted.

            I think I'll be on a train the moment the race is happening.

            1980 had only four finishers too, including The Pilgarlic.

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              #7
              Thanks for the thread, missed it till now.

              Don't follow the flat at all - too aristocratic for me - but looking forward to the National. Prior to that, am up in Newcastle looking after a very close friend with Cancer, who says he's going to have his first bet with me on the first day of the meet on Thursday. (Other than that, we're sitting playing video games and laughing at Man City.)

              If he does better than me, I've told him that he can wave goodbye to any further care on my part...

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                #8
                Raz de Maree, Bain des Iles for me, and Virgilio in an accumulator, all e/w.

                As to my friend mentioned above, thankfully I managed to tutor him in the fine art of losing.

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                  #9
                  Today of course contained one of the most important events on the racing calendar - The classics trials at Leopardstown. Three races: The 1000/2000 Guineas trials and the Ballysax Stakes (which is one of the two main Irish trails for the English Derby). Two of the three races were a disgrace to the very idea of competitive sport being little more than Ballydoyle testimonials but for anyone wanting to place an antepost bet on the classics I will say Gustav Klimt looks as likely a winner of the 2000G seen from this crop so far. You won't get anything better than 6/1 now but I'd take him over market leader Saxon Warrior who looks more like a Derby type to me (big galloping sort, pedigree screams middle distance). Hopefully we'll see some decent English based challengers when the Craven kicks off next week.
                  Last edited by George; 15-04-2018, 20:11.

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                    #10
                    I went to the National meeting at Aintree and thoroughly enjoyed it, but I think I prefer Cheltenham as a festival. The proper racegoers are at Cheltenham whereas Aintree attracts the stag and hen do's, the party types and pissheads. I only had one win during the day (I was betting off course as well) and total losses only came to 11.50 which I was pleased with. The National itself seemed like a good contest, particularly as one of my bets - Bless the Wings - looked like it might win at one point. I don't drink at these large festivals as it tends to spoil the day for me these days, but a pint of water worked out as costing more than a pint of beer which puts me off from going again.

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                      #11
                      Just caught the Chester Cup. Hugely impressive winner, called Magic Circle.

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                        #12
                        The most taking performance of the day was by Kachy who came from a poor outside stall position and won by 9 lengths. One of the Royal Ascot sprints beckons. Disappointment of the day was the Frankel 4yo Eminent who is clearly not the most straight forward of characters.

                        The Derby/Oaks trials are coming thick and fast now with three races at Chester over recent days and two at Lingfield tomorrow, then it's the Dante and Musidora at York next week. The Oaks looks a wide open race, especially since a 66/1 outsider won the 1000 Guineas and the most fancied Ballydoyle filly September has encountered a setback. The Derby on the other hand looks like it could end up being a procession for Saxon Warrior, which would set him up for the St Leger and possibly the first triple crown winner in 48 years. Apparently ''The lads'' are enthusiastic.

                        The great race mare Enable has also met with a setback putting her out until August which puts the kibosh on any high summer showdown with Cracksman in The King George. I wouldn't be surprised if we never see her again on a racecourse, she's worth just too much as a future broodmare to risk anything more serious.
                        Last edited by George; 11-05-2018, 23:50.

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                          #13
                          Roaring Lion runs up an impressive winner of the Dante Stakes after a respectable 5th in the 2000 Guineas and before that disappointing in the Craven. Clearly a very talented horse the issue with him is a fondness for not running in a straight line when off the bridle, with a definite tendency to veer left. Now he can get away with that at most tracks but probably not Epsom given that the home straight (which is almost half a mile long)) as a significant camber towards the infield rail, and not in a race of that standing. It's highly likely he goes to France the day afterwards and races in the Prix Du Jockey Club on a more conventional track anyway. The owners sponsor that race incidentally.
                          Last edited by George; 17-05-2018, 17:02.

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                            #14
                            Originally posted by George View Post
                            The winner looked like a potential group horse in the making.

                            ...and Addeybb did become that in his following race winning a G2 at Sandown last month. He's currently third favourite (11/2 is about the best you'll get) for Saturday's G1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. It's a poor renewal, he's a progressive horse and the trainer/jockey combination of William Haggas and James Doyle is on fire.

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                              #15
                              Having a go each-way?

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                                #16
                                I'm not much of a punter but from an EW angle he seems a no brainer to me. Paddy Power are still offering 13/2 according to Oddschecker.

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                                  #17
                                  ..And the ''No Brainer'' finishes 8th.

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                                    #18
                                    Denman has been put to sleep at the age of 18. Not a great age by any means but it looks like past heart problems caught up with him. A great rampaging bull of an old fashioned chaser which were already becoming a dying breed at that time.

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                                      #19
                                      The US has another triple crown winner, it's 13th in total and after waiting thirty seven years since Affirmed in 1978 they've now had two in three years. A monster of a horse (look at the size of him compared to the others) who rather unusually never even ran as a two year old and only made his maiden back in mid Feb. Justify will probably race two, maybe three more times before he's sent off to stud sadly.

                                      Last edited by George; 11-06-2018, 19:06.

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                                        #20
                                        He is a beautiful horse.

                                        I thought about going out to the track, but as any New Yorker can tell you, Belmont Park on a potential Triple Crown day is an amateur hour shitshow.

                                        I wonder if he will even race twice. My guess is that he will run the Breeders’ Cup Classic and retire given his rather strange ownership (i.e., George Soros has an interest in his stud fees, but not his race winnings)
                                        Last edited by ursus arctos; 11-06-2018, 02:54.

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                                          #21
                                          It's five months between the Belmont and the Breeders Cup so I doubt any trainer much less Baffert would risk having a horse off for that period and then send them to a major race like the Classic without a prep run. American Pharoah ran twice in this space at the Haskell (which he won) and then the Travers (which he didn't). He'll probably take in one of these races although AP's defeat in the latter seemed to scar Baffert and the horse's connections at the time so he may swerve it due to bad juju.

                                          Regarding your final point - well that could be said for all of his connections. Winstar are in the business of creating a conveyor belt of stallions, China Horse Club have been spending a fortune at the yearling auctions buying some of the best bred colts in the hope that they become top racehorses and thus serious stallion prospects and of course Soros's people are in for this too. It's what this sport at the highest level is all about - breeding and bloodstock. The racing is just a brief shop window displaying the goods. That being said if they're really greedy they could keep him in training into Jan/Feb of next year so that he runs in that Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream which last year had a total purse of $16M.

                                          Justify's Sire Scat Daddy was an outstanding young stallion who dropped dead in his paddock aged 11 three years ago. Since then many of the top breeding/racing operations have been scrambling to purchase his most appealing offspring from the remaining crops in the hope that they get the one who continues his legacy, if any of them are up to the task. Because of this he's a more attractive stallion prospect than American Pharoah was, who's Sire and Grand Sire are still very much alive, well and active in the covering shed. AP's initial covering fee on retirement was $200K, although it seemed Coolmore got a little overexcited on this front and a few months later they sheepishly announced a ''2 mares for $100K each'' deal. If Justify remains unbeaten then god knows what they could end up standing him for.
                                          Last edited by George; 18-06-2018, 21:09.

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                                            #22
                                            Thanks for that.

                                            You are quite obviously much more knowledgeable about the sport than I am.

                                            The whole thing around Baffert, Pharaoh and the Travers is a large part of what was making me nervous, but you make excellent points in counter and the Haskell is real possibility (so, I imagine, are races in California, though the Breeders' Cup is at Churchill Downs this year, and I don't think that they have made any commitments as to where Justify will be stabled until then). There's also the fact that Justify is an extremely well-muscled horse who loves to run (someone described him as horse racing's Lebron James to Pharaoh's Michael Jordan, which I thought was very good).

                                            A few questions:

                                            1) have the significant changes in ownership during a stallion's racing career and his stud career now become common at the top of the sport?

                                            2) do you know how racing decisions are made in that situation? Do the "stud owners" have no input or protection as to how the horse is raced? That strikes me as very risky for them, but then the whole sport isn't known for low-risk "investments".

                                            3) my understanding of China Horse Club is that there ultimate goal is to make flat racing a thing in the PRC outside of Hong Kong. Is there any chance that Justify would go there, even for show? They had to be over the moon that he won the Triple Crown in their silks (which he only wears every fourth race).

                                            Thanks again for the input, I really appreciate it.

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                                              #23
                                              1) As ever it all depends on money, circumstances and backing. With Justify it appears the partnership which bought him as a yearling - WinStar Farm (60%), CHC (25%) and SF Racing (15%) - had already been formed prior with a plan to purchase numerous horses together not just Justify. Now chances usually are they would have gone years pissing millions up the wall at places like Keeneland and never found a horse of any note, but fortunately for themselves they've hit the jackpot early.



                                              In reality none of them need to sell their interests although I'm sure for SF Racing this is purely a business venture and if someone came up with a generous offer for their 15% they would sell, possibly CHC as well I don't think that can be discarded. With WinStar it could be different. They already have significant stud facilities in Kentucky and stand over 20 stallions - some of them very successful ones - so this further raises their profile and standing and who would be willing and capable to come up with the tens of millions needed to bag Justify's breeding rights? Coolmore? possibly Sheik Mo if he really wanted to. Why sell them to a rival anyway?

                                              With American Pharaoh it was different. The Zayat family who owned and bred him are significant owner/breeders but they would always have had to have made a deal with one of the big hitters. Coolmore came in early in his triple crown run and bagged the rights for significantly less than they would have been post-Belmont. They rarely miss a trick that lot.

                                              I get the sense that in North America there remains - although it appears to be changing - a greater variety of ownership in the sport than exists in UK/IRE, and it's still just about possible for relativity well off but not stinking rich individuals to end up owning a top colt or filly. In the UK/IRE the game, especially with horses bred at the classic distances of a mile and above, is dominated by the big operations such as Coolmore. Darley/Godolphin, Juddmonte, etc. It's not just that they have deeper pockets than everybody else (Juddmonte are not major players at the sales and rely on their homebreds anyway) and it's not just because they have the stallions. It's also because they have vast, high quality, broodmore bands with a particular stranglehold on elite families in the distances mentioned earlier. You can't buy into them for love nor money. These broodmare bands are important for supporting a stallion and would have been a significant reason (bar the cash) why American Pharoah went to Coolmore.

                                              2) I honestly don't know how it works when breeding rights have been sold to a separate entity than the original ownership whilst the horse is still in training. It's normally conveyed to the public that group A owns and controls the horse as they see fit until the day it retires from racing and then group B takes up full control in it's stud career. However, I can't believe - especially if significant amounts of money are involved - that the breeding right owners don't have a say in where and how often the horse races from the time contracts are signed with a set timetable and plan.

                                              3) NO in a word. Not a chance.
                                              Last edited by George; 11-06-2018, 18:09.

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                                                #24
                                                It's difficult for many casual viewers to separate the baggage that surrounds Royal Ascot from the sporting fare on show but behind the pomp and nonsense tomorrow starts the greatest flat racing meet on the planet. The opening day often offers the best racing across the five days as well.

                                                No bets on but keeping an eye on Calyx in the Coventry Stakes who hacked up in a Newmarket maiden (which are often the strongest in depth) nine days ago setting impressive sectional times. He's a 2yo son of the outstanding 4xG1 winning miler and first season sire Kingman. Also a Juddmonte homebred like his old man. Could be owt or nowt.

                                                Of the two Group 1s the Queen Anne looks moderate, and that's being kind. Don't be surprised if Rhododendron backs up her win in The Lockinge here. The St James Palace is more interesting - the French horse Wootton could well be the best but I'm no fan of the jockey Mickael Barzalona. Without Parole is a son of Frankel owned by the same American family who bred the triple crown winner Justify and needless to say there are three O'Brien raiders. One appears to be a no hoper and the other two - US Navy Flag and Gustav Klimt - are very much on a retrieval mission for their reputations. For sentiments sake it would be nice to see a win for either Roger Teal's Tip To Win who was 2nd in the English 2000 Guineas at SP odds of 50/1, or Romanised - a surprise winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas trained by Ken Condon.
                                                Last edited by George; 18-06-2018, 21:56.

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                                                  #25
                                                  Performance of the week there from Alpha Centauri who on fast ground over a mile could be pretty much unbeatable. Different story for her when 'Soft' is in the going description. Hope they move her up to face the colts who at both 3yo's and older are nothing to write home about plus she gets a nice weight allowance.

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