How about a sumo thread?

[Wouter D]

Is there any way of working out how many maegashira levels a rikishi could move up or down from their record during a basho, or does it all depend on how everyone does? For example, can you say that 'If Terutsuyoshi wins 10 bouts he'll be up to at least M8' or similar?

It's a combination of precedent, hard rules, and practical considerations following from how everyone else does.

The people at Tachiai do a prediction every basho, and they're typically pretty close to the final result. This was their last prediction, and this was the postmortem. So there is logic to the solution. The logic is just not ironclad.

[ursus arctos]

Gramsci is our resident banzuke expert, but my sense is that it is too dependent on other results for one to develop a meaningful formula.

It also isn't uncommon for low ranked Maegeshira to get off to hot starts, as they are initially paired with guys close to them on the banzuke and may even get a visitor from Juryo. Terutsyuoshi wlll have a much more challenging dance card in "Act II", as the second set of five matches are sometimes known.

[Kevin S]

Is there any way of working out how many maegashira levels a rikishi could move up or down from their record during a basho, or does it all depend on how everyone does? For example, can you say that 'If Terutsuyoshi wins 10 bouts he'll be up to at least M8' or similar?

[Anton Gramscescu]

Enho is apparently doing the cupping thing too. Loved the Goeido-Okinoumi bout. Endo-Asanoyama was a very good one too.

I refuse to believe withe Shodai or Kagayaki are really going to make a run at a yusho, but man I have a feeling about Terutsuyoshi...

[Wouter D]

Day 5 highlights here.

One third of the basho gone, and both yokozuna are out. Three rikishi are unbeaten: Terutsuyoshi, Shodai, and Kagayaki. Of the chasing pack of five, one would expect Endo, Takakeisho, and perhaps Hokutofuji to challenge for the title.

Was very pleased to see Okinoumi beat Goeido again in their second bout; the first was called wrong, and somehow the powers that be didn't overturn the verdict completely but decided to do a rerun. I thought they sold Okinoumi short there.

Shohozan threw in a tsuppari with his matta, so it was delicious to see him lose too.

[ursus arctos]

And he does, leaving us with a Yok-free tournament

[Anton Gramscescu]

The kimarite was "Atomic Wedgie", I think. Enho started way too high off the ground at the tachiai, he needed to go full ankle-biter to have a shot.

I assume at 1-3, Kakuryuu is going to go kyujo tomorrow. Makes the Geido and Takayasu stories a little more interesting: despite terrible and mediocre starts (respectively) they may still have a shot at this.

[Wouter D]

I can barely sleep I am so excited about Enho-Tochinoshin

Well, that didn't disappoint.

Day 4 highlights here.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Goddamn it.

Also: I can barely sleep I am so excited about Enho-Tochinoshin

[Anton Gramscescu]

This is a GREAT basho so far. Endo and Asanoyama have both been great. But 12 days to go, still, still anyone's basho.

(Except Goeido. Goeido is done.)

[Wouter D]

The word of the day is shitatedashinage.

This is turning into a very expensive basho for the sumo association. Three days in, and we have four kinboshi. Exceptional.

I would put Asanoyama as favorite for the yusho. He's in great form. Two of the high-ranked maegashira have a fantastic record as well, though: Endo has beaten two yokozuna and one ozeki, and Hokutofuji two ozeki and one yokozuna. Tomorrow they can even out their records by making it two all each. We will also see Enho take on Tochinoshin.

[ursus arctos]

Domnisoara Gramscescu, as it turns out, has a mind-bending capacity to remember everyone's mawashi colour. Literally within two seconds of every bout today, she'd perk up with "X has a new mawashi". Uncanny.

Female of Italian heritage turns out to be a connoisseur of fine silks. Whodya thunk it?

Fabulous musubi no ichiban today

[Wouter D]

Day 2: here come the zabuton!

Shodai contained Enho masterfully. Both Aoiyama's opponents so far made it far too easy on our Bulgarian friend.

Last year in the Nagoya basho we had four ozeki. They are not doing so well. Tochinoshin had already fallen down the banzuke. Takayasu is currently fighting for immediate repromotion to Ozeki, needing 10 wins; he improved to 1-1 today with a narrow win over Okinoumi, but barely beating an M4 does not bode well for the prospect of winning 10 in total. Goeido is kadoban and currently 0-2. Only Takakeisho's Ozeki status is secure for the next basho, and at 1-1 he started okayish.

With Hakuho having announced retirement sometime in 2020, there is going to be a big hole at the top.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Ooh there is one new-ish gyoji down in lower megashira who I quite like. portly with a tiny moustache. He has some fine new pyjamas for this basho. Nothing's going to displace my love for my favourite gyoji Konosuke, (the #5 judge who usually wears bright red or pink, and yesterday did the Tochinoshin and Enho bouts), but I like this new guy's style.

[Wouter D]

The gyoji's instincts in that Endo match were spot-on. He went through his knees to get exactly the right sightline to where Kakuryu hit the clay. Impressive

Ishiura's marks matched the gyoji's outfit. Wonder what he has in store tomorrow.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Also, did anyone else see how Ishiura is now apparently into cupping therapy? That was kind of weird.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Yeah that was kind of too bad, but i have to say, when I was watching it this AM with my daughter, I thought the gyoji got it wrong, too - very understandable mono-ii (even if it was clear on the replay).

Domnisoara Gramscescu, as it turns out, has a mind-bending capacity to remember everyone's mawashi colour. Literally within two seconds of every bout today, she'd perk up with "X has a new mawashi". Uncanny.

[ursus arctos]

Most likely because it went to a mono-ii (which confirmed the result).

One doesn't want to have tossed one's zabuton only to have decision overturned.

[Wouter D]

Terutsuyoshi and Kotoeko produced something special in their bout. Agree that Enho showed fantastic technique once more, but to me it seemed like Kaisei did everything he could to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Endo was well worth his kinboshi. Why was there no zabuton shower?

[Anton Gramscescu]

OK, Day One of Hatsu is in the books and DAMN that was a good day of sumo. Really lovely stuff. Everyone seems to be going full Hakuho with the face-clap at that Tachiai, though. That could get interesting. Newcomer Kiribayama had a brilliant win over the returning Kaisei - really great footwork. And of course, Enho is awesome.

[Anton Gramscescu]

About halfway through, and yes. Also, a lot of guys deciding that the way to beat Enho is to stay *way* back of the shikiri-sen. They seem to be onto something. But Enho will adapt for next time, I imagine.

Very distressed about Nishikigi's performance. Juryo now pretty much certain.

[ursus arctos]

That will be a good deal of annoyed Hakuho beating up on mediocre opposition.

[Anton Gramscescu]

I am about five days behind in watching highlights due to work travel in odd time zones so haven;t watched the last five days. hoping to catch up tomorrow.

[Wouter D]

Still some intrigue further down the banzuke, but the turn of events required to see a change of tournament winner is so unlikely that you can bet your house against it.

Did Hakuho just break Endo's nose?

[Anton Gramscescu]

Hakuho with a 2-match lead over Asanoyama with three days to go and this basho is done.