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    Yeah, that's true, that was some rag doll stuff.

    Enho did beat Goeido yesterday, but Takakeisho had his number. Very one-sided.


      Day 11 highlights here.

      Both Tokushoryu and Shodai struggled but prevailed today. Enho went in lower today, and promptly took out Asanoyama. Hokutofuji-Tamawashi was spectacular.


        Day 12 highlights here

        Both Goeido and Takayasu confirmed their make-koshi today. Tokushoryu saw off a throne pretender in Kagayaki, while Shodai beat his last remaining sanyaku opposition in Abi.

        Takakeisho trails the leading pair by a single win. Tomorrow Tokushoryu meets Yutakayama, and Shodai meets Kagayaki. Both are not in bad form (now at 9-3), but Kagayaki is way below Shodai on the banzuke while Yutakayama is way above Tokushoryu. To be fair to the planning committee, you cannot go below M17, but Shodai could conceivably meet Endo or Myogiryu. Both are fighting for their kachi-koshi and would therefore be hungry for the win.

        Takakeisho meets Takayasu, which makes sense given their ranks and the phase of the basho we're in.
        Last edited by Wouter D; 23-01-2020, 10:43. Reason: got my details wrong


          Day 13.

          Endo got his kachi-koshi today, mostly because Okinoumi's leg gave out in a rather winning position. Enho got his kachi-koshi too, by taking out Abi with a move that sent a roar of approval through the Kokugikan. Well deserved.

          Did Takayasu just try to take out Takakeisho with an elbow at the tachiai? Looked dirty to me.

          The top-three made no mistakes. Tomorrow, co-leaders Tokushoryu and Shodai will fight each other.


            If Tokushoryu wins, it will e interesting to see what the pairing is for the final day. Shodai is the only rikishi over M8 her will have fought the entire tournament. They can't give him to Takakeisho because he has to fight Goeido in the musubi no ichiban. Hokutofuji maybe? Shodai, on the other hand, has fought all the san'yaku already - I believe Endo is the highest-ranking dude he has not yet fought, so it will probably be him.

            And that Enho win was AWESOME. KK and 4th straight promotion.


              When Asanoyama won Natsu 2019 from M8, they gave him similar-rank opposition up to and including Day 12, but then they made him fight a Sekiwake on Day 13, an Ozeki on Day 14, and a Komusubi on Day 15. They could have made him fight Kakuryu or Takayasu, so there were more Ozeki and Yokozuna available. But they didn't keep feeding him mid-maegashira either.

              Surely Tokushoryu will face at least a high-ranked maegashira or a sanyaku opponent in the final match, if he beats Shodai tomorrow. Otherwise there is no point. But tradition will indeed probably dictate that Takakeisho and Goeido face off.


                Tokushoryu prevails!

                Asanoyama takes Takakeisho out of the race.

                Tokushoryu does meet Takakeisho on day 15, while Shodai meets M2 Mitakeumi whose record is 7-7, so he definitely has something to fight for.

                Kiribayama has now won seven in a row, in his first makuuchi basho. Not bad.


                  Well now

                  The only thing consistent about Asanoyama is his inconsistency. I wonder if it is a matter of concentration. Perhaps a real shot at Ozeki will concentrate the mind.


                    Oh wow, they are just totally skipping the traditional two top-ranked dudes must fight each other on day 15 thing. Crazy. bad form on the part of the scheduling wizards to leave it so late to give Tokushoryu decent opposition though.

                    I hated the outcome of pretty much every single match today except down in juryo where my man Nighikigi did what no one else could, and stopped the Terunofuji zensho bid. That put him back in the top division for sure next time.


                      Apparently it;s been at least 35 years since the last time a maegashira fought in the Mushubi no Ichiban..


                        Re: setting up the banzuke for March. Based on day 14 results, this is where all the various rikishi "should" be based on their current records and my rule-of-thumg. With only three O/Ys there will be two Maegashira 17s and one Maegashira 18 next time (there has to be 40 in Makuuchi)

                        There's a bit of a pile-up at Komusubi, with three who "should" be in those two positions. My guess is Endo will be the one dropped to M1. Ryuden, Daieisho and Mitakaeumi all should be M2, but presumably tomorrow's results will tip at least one of them into the other M1 spot. Similarly, there is no one who "should" be M6 or M13, but these places will be filled either through tomorrow's results or committee discretion.

                        I think there are only two guys going down - Kotoeko for sure and one of the injured Meisei or Kotoyuki (the other will probably get the rare M18 spot).

                        Y Hakuho, Kakuryuu
                        O – Takakeisho
                        S – Goeido, Asanoyama
                        K – Shodai, Endo, Hokutofuji
                        M1 –
                        M2 Ryuden Daieisho Mitakaeumi
                        M3 Takayasu Yutakayama Enho
                        M4 Abi Okinoumi
                        M5 Onosho
                        M7 Shohozan Myogiryu Kagayaki
                        M8 Takarafuji
                        M9 Tamawashi Takanosho
                        M10 Tochinoshin
                        M11 Chiyotari Kiribayama
                        M12 Ishiura Sadanoumi Terutsuyoshi Tochiozan
                        M14 Aoiyama Chiyomaru
                        M15 Azumaryu Kotoshogiku Ikioi
                        M16 Shimanoumi Kaisei Tsurugisho
                        M17 Nishigiki Terunofuji
                        M18 Meisei or Kotoyuki


                          That was awesome


                            Yes. Yes, it was.

                            Highlights here.

                            So where does Tokushoryu end up on the new banzuke? Fourth Komusubi slot?


                              That was what happened the only other time a rikishi won from M17 (in 1939).

                              Only for the man in question to go 5-10.


                                Well, that was something.

                                Hard to know what will happen. As Ursus indicates, not a lot of precedent. But look, he;s not going to go ahead of Shodai. 13-2 from M4 trumps 14-1 from M-17 no matter what. Not going to go ahead of Hokutofuji, either (11 wins from M2) So they would definitely have to go to a 4-Komusubi system to accommodate him and to do that, Endo would also need a pretty strong case for a promotion, and not sure a 9-6 constitutes one.

                                Assuming there are only 2 Ks, the "rule-of-thumb-ometer" predicts

                                Y Hakuho, Kakuryuu
                                O – Takakeisho
                                S – Goeido, Asanoyama
                                K – Shodai, Hokutofuji
                                M1 – Tokushoryu, Endo
                                M2 Daieisho Takayasu, Yutakayama
                                M3 Ryuden Mitakaeumi, Okinoumi,
                                M4 Enho, Onosho
                                M5 Abi
                                M6 Myogiryu, Kagayaki
                                M7 Takarafuji
                                M8, Shohozan, Tamawashi
                                M10 Takanosho, Kiribayama
                                M11 Tochinoshin, Sadanoumi
                                M12 Chiyotariu
                                M13 Ishiura, Terutsuyoshi, Tochiozan
                                M14 Kotoshogiku, Ikioi
                                M15 Chiyomaru Aoiyama Kaisei Tsurugisho Nishikigi
                                M16 Azumaryu
                                M17 Terunofuji Shimanoumi
                                M18 Meisei/Kotoyuki

                                Youcan see the positions where there are bunch-ups and where there are empties, so a bunch of people at the top will need to slide down a bit, and some at the bottom will get a bit of a boost. My guess:

                                Y Hakuho, Kakuryuu
                                O – Takakeisho
                                S – Goeido, Asanoyama
                                K – Shodai, Hokutofuji
                                M1 – Tokushoryu, Endo
                                M2 Daieisho Yutakayama
                                M3 Takayasu,Mitakaeumi
                                M4 Ryuden, Okinoumi,
                                M5 Enho, Onosho
                                M6 Abi, Kagayaki
                                M7 Takarafuji, Myogiryu,
                                M8, Shohozan, Tamawashi
                                M9 Takanosho, Kiribayama
                                M10 Tochinoshin, Sadanoumi
                                M11 Chiyotariu, Terutsuyoshi,
                                M12 Ishiura, Tochiozan
                                M13 Kotoshogiku, Ikioi
                                M14 Aoiyama Nishikigi
                                M15 Kaisei Tsurugisho
                                M16 Chiyomaru Azumaryu
                                M17 Terunofuji Shimanoumi
                                M18 Meisei/Kotoyuki

                                (shift everything up one if those two M1s turn into Ks).


                                  Apparently, Goeido is considering retiring. If this is with immediate effect, that would open up a sanyaku spot.


                                    Wow. If true and if both Yokozunas do the expected and retire this year, it;s a full-scale guard change. There are going to have to be some cheap promotions to Ozeki. Has to be because literally you are not allowed to hold a basho with fewer than 2 O/Ys.


                                      More on precedent: In 2000, Takatoriki won the yusho with a 13-2 from M14. They made a second Komusubi rank for the following tournament and put him in it. He proceeded to go 2-13.


                                        Oh, the tears! I was not prepared for the tears. What an incredible achievement.


                                          I know less than little about this but M1 feels right for Tokoshoryu to me too. Think about Leicester City. Despite winning the league, noone yet refers to them as a 'big six' team. They're definitely recognised as the best of the rest but it'll take sustained achievement for them to dislodge an Arsenal, say.


                                            Official: Goeido retires.

                                            That messes up my banzuke.
                                            Last edited by Anton Gramscescu; 27-01-2020, 13:30.


                                              Exhibition sumo: Hakuho vs. Enho.


                                                Banzuke is out.

                                                Asanoyama and Shodai at Sekiwake
                                                Hokutofuji and Endo at Komusubi
                                                M1s - Daieisho and Takayasu
                                                M2s - Okunomi and Tokushoryu
                                                M3s - Mitakaeumi and Yutakayama
                                                M4s - Enho and Abi

                                                Nishikigi gets the bump to M14. Terunofuji shit out of luck at J3.


                                                  Looks very conservative stuff, which I guess makes sense if the top has been taken off the pile. Looking for some new cream to rise rather than taking a gamble.


                                                    I think that's exactly right. Asanoyama is technically not on an Ozeki run, but I think they are desperate to get a second Ozeki so even a 12-win performance in Osaka (which would leave him short of 33 wins) might get him a promotion.

                                                    One very weird thing about having only one Ozeki is that it changes the whole Dohyo-Iri (ring entry) ritual at the start of each day. The way this usually works is that the "East" Makuuchi Sekitori all enter the ring Indian file, in ascending rank order, wearing their apron-y things (forget what they are called) and form a circle and do a little salute. Then they leave, and the "west" sekitori come in from the opposite side of the stadium (obvs) and do the same thing. Then the Yorkoznua come in wearing their rope, and accompanied by their spear and sword bearers and do their special dohyo-iri which involves the stamps and the tea-kettle impersonations and whatnot. The thing is, those Makuuchi processions *must* be led by an Ozeki.

                                                    But we have only one Ozeki! How can the processions proceed? (I know this sounds ridiculous but it's exactly the stuff official sumo really cares about) Answer: The East Ozeki (Takakeisho) leads the east group. The West Yokozuna drops down symbolically to Ozeki level and enters that way. I *think* that means Kakuryuu does not get to do his usual Yokozuna dohyo-iri. or maybe he gets to do it twice, am not sure.

                                                    Really not sure how this works if two of them go kyujo, to be honest.

                                                    Anyways, yes. Asanoyama is on fact track to promotion. Assume Hokutofuji and Endo are close behind him in the running for Ozeki and the Shodai is a temporary blip in Sanyaku.

                                                    Last point: what is Enho's ceiling? I have a hard time imagining him in San'yaku but he does keep getting promoted....