How about a sumo thread?

[Wouter D]

Ah, I've learned something today. Thanks, Kev!

[ursus arctos]

The scheduling is a black box.

They clearly have pulled out the stops to give Hometown Hero Goeido a fast start, but other decisions are baffling.

Impressive win by Tamawashi today; Takakeisho is finding that his Ozeki campaign is very much not a walkover. Tochinosin also continues to surprise me, though his knee brace increasingly resembles a major infrastructure project, and one wonders if he can hold up for 15 bouts. Hakuho is Hakuho.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Which ones do you find baffling? I think I'm getting to the point where I instinctively understand the rotation (but I am not sure I can put it into words). I think it's more the case that the top ranks are all healthy and the M1-3s are just getting pounded this tournament - currently a collective 5-25

[Anton Gramscescu]

Just managed to catch the Tochinoshin-Kaisei bout. The power is there for T, *if* he can get a mawashi grip. I think it really is just that more and more riksihi have figured out how to prevent him from doing it.

[Wouter D]

Which ones do you find baffling?

The difference between the two M3s:
Nishikigi's opponents: S, S, O, O, O.
Shodai's opponents: M4, M4, M5, M5, O.

[Wouter D]

By contrast, the higher-ranked Maegashira seem to be getting a balanced diet.

The difference between the two M2s:
Daieisho's opponents: O, S, O, Y, Y.
Myogiryu's opponents: S, O, S, Y, Y.

The difference between the two M1s:
Kaisei's opponents: O, Y, Y, O, O
Endo's opponents: O, Y, Y, O, M4

[MsD]

Blimey, you really are talking about Sumo wrestling in here.

[Wouter D]

Well, maybe there is a pattern here if I complete the cycle.

Komusubi:
Mitakeumi's opponents: Y, O, S, S, K
Hotokofuji's opponents: Y, O, O, S, K

Sekiwake:
Takakeisho's opponents: M2, M3, K, K, S
Tamawashi's opponents: M3, M2, M2, K, S

Ozeki:
Goeido's opponents: M1, K, M3, M1, M3
Takayasu's opponents: M1, K, M2, M1, M3
Tochinoshin's opponents: M2, M2, K, M3, M1

Yokozuna:
Hakuho's opponents: K, M1, M1, M2, M2
Kakuryu's opponents: K, M1, M1, M2, M2

So there is some kind of symmetry, but the symmetry gets thrown off by the fact that there is an odd number of Ozeki and even number of all other ranks (until you reach the lone M17 to even things out). As a consequence, the higher-ranked M3 East (Nishikigi) joins the rotation at the top, while the lower-ranked M3 West (Shodai) joins the rotation in the virtual second tier.

[Wouter D]

Blimey, you really are talking about Sumo wrestling in here.

Some of us are even compiling statistics to discover the logic behind the pairings in the sumo wrestling competition schedule. Life well spent!

[MsD]

Carry on!

[ursus arctos]

Enho injured shoulder muscles on his visit to the top flight yesterday and appeared with strapping back in Juryo today. He was severely impaired and lost quickly.

A real shame.

[Anton Gramscescu]

The difference between the two M3s:
Nishikigi's opponents: S, S, O, O, O.
Shodai's opponents: M4, M4, M5, M5, O.

Yeah, you;ve got it re: symmetry.

Think about how they have to design the schedule from the yokozuna on down. In principle, the Yokozuna fight the next fifteen best fighters. At the start of a basho, with the upper ranks the way they are and everybody healthy, that means: 1 other yokozuna, 3 ozeki, 2 Sekiwake, 2 komusubi...and that leaves seven more, so in theory they;ll fight all the M1s, 2s, 3s, and one of the 4s. ("in theory" because it;s possible someone below M3 goes on a run and is a potential factor in the yusho, and you have to throw them into the mix two at some point in week 2. Plus, injuries may change the equation.)

For the yokozuna, they have to end with the Ozeki and yokozuna. All other things equal, both Hakuho and Kakuryu will spend thursday - Saturday next week fighting Goeido, Takayasu, Tochinoshin and then each other on the final match of the final day. They also have to give the big guys decent opponents on the opening Sunday and on the two mid-weekend days. So that;s when they tend to fight the Sekiwake and Komusubi. When you think about all that, you realise they need to keep some of the chumps from the upper Megashira ranks in reserve for the top boys for middle of week two.

Now look at it from the perspective of someone in the upper joi (the top end of the megashiras). The M1s and 2s get fed to the top ranks first (a dubious privilege of rank). Which is why M1s and M2s more often than not have these 1-4 or 0-5 starts. But the number of people in the joi who get fed to the top ranks in week 1 is a function of the number of top ranks. Rule of thumb: However many Ozeki/Yokozuna there are, that;s the number of people in the joi who are going to get tough matchups in the first week. This basho, there are five healthy Ozeki/yokozuna. Which means the M1s and M2s are the ones who get fed into the meatgrinder, as well as one of the M3s. Nishikigi is rankked higher than Shodai, so he draws the short straw (so to speak). That doesn't mean Shodai avoids the top guys - it means he avoids the top guys in week 1. He and Ichinojo (6-0! Wow!) will get their turn next week,

[Anton Gramscescu]

Goeido loses. Takayasu wins, Tochinoshin beats Mitakaeumi to go up to 4-2 and safety is looking a little likelier. Hakuho beat Nishikigi (who nevertheless put up a hell of a fight and briefly looked like he might win). Kauryu disposed of the hapless Shodai (who started his tour through the scheduling valley of death today), though I thought the start was a matta.

Overall after six days: Hakuho and Ichnojo undefeated; Kakuryu, Goeido, Takayasu, Kotoshogiku, Aoiyama and Ryuden all on one loss.

[ursus arctos]

Tochinoshin is half way there. He needs to avoid aggravating his injury.

Terutsyoshi's struggles are an instructive exercise in how tough the the top level is.

WTF was Abi trying? A leap frog henka?

Aoyiama has really surprised me, though he will always be the bulbous Bulgarian. Ryuden has also impressed.

Kaisei has been a joke. Takakeisho benefitted today.

Nice win by Tamwashi,, who seems to be coming into form.

I'm wondering if Hakuho's relatively labouring wins are actually more likely to lead to a title than his imperious start in January. He knows what it takes and has every trick in the book.

Highlights here.

[Wouter D]

WTF was Abi trying? A leap frog henka?

That was amazing.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Not sure I have ever seen Abi try a henka before, so it's probably just down to a lack of practice. Seemed to me to be an act of desperation for him since Plan A just isn't working anymore.

Kaisei is a weird one. He is imperious against lower-ranks and freaking useless against the top ones. So he yoyos wildly between about M8 and K, looking great one basho and crap the next. Aoiyama used to be like that, too, (he has taken a runner-up spot within the last 24 months, though can't remember when exactly) so in some ways this performance is just a return to form. But the times I have seem him near the top he has been more pitable than Kaisei.

0-6 for Nishikigi is harsh. Watch him roll off seven straight wins now.

[ursus arctos]

[URL]https://twitter.com/sumofollower/status/1106199254022963200?s=21[/URL]

[ursus arctos]

Excellent blog on the Osaka basho experience.

[ursus arctos]

Day 7 Highlights, beginning with Enho's bout in Juryo

[Anton Gramscescu]

Takayasu's win was unbelievably sloppy.

Tochinoshin is now officially screwed. 4-3 with matches still to come against both Ozeki and both Yokozuna equals zero margin for error. And tomorrow he is up against an ultra-genki 7-0 Ichinojo who has quite suddenly remembered how to sumo.

The most interesting match today for me was Okinoumi's win. Watch carefully - the way he managed to shift his grip from an outside to an inside was awfully skillful. And Yoshikaze's win was sweet. He looked like that in every match two years ago but he's been mostly awful the last fourteen months or so. Nice to see it again

No idea how Kotoshogikou keeps winning with his kangaroo sumo. I guess he's finally fallen far enough down the banzuke that he's no longer meeting opponents who remember that the secret to beating him is to just twist slightly while he has both feet in the air.

Two fights which show the pros and cons of an ultra-oshi strategy were Abi;s and Takakeisho's. in principle, they have identical push-and-slap styles. But Abi is perpetually leaning forward and off-balance. All it takes is for someone to step backwards and he falls forward - boom! hatakikomi. Takakeisho on the other hand moves his feet forward at the same time as he pushes. Totally different effect - never off-balance, and again today he just steamrollered his opponent. Part of it is a different body shape, obviously, but maybe the lesson there is that Abi's shape isn't really conducive to push-and-slap sumo at the highest level.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Hakuho alone at the top after a *very* nervy win against Tochiozan. Tochinoshin pulls a half-henka to get a grip on Ichinojo and - eventually - does his mountain-lifting thing for the yorikiri win. Kotoshogikou loses. Everyone else wins, so we've got a group of Kakuryu, Goeido, Takayasu, Ichinojo and Aoiyama chasing the Boss with one loss apiece. This is totally proper sumo, btw - four of the top dudes still scrapping it out going into week two. Will be a great finish as they all have to fight each other starting Wednesday.

(The converse of great records at the top is disastrous records in the M1-3 zone; those six are now collectively 11-37)

So, there was an interesting piece of scheduling for tomorrow, and this is kind of where you can see the artistry in the whole thing. Takakeisho is 6-2. He has yet to fight any of the Ozeki or Yokozuna, so that's five matches spoken for. Who do you give him for the other two? Just going by the banzuke, Shodai should be one of them, since he is M3. But he's currently 0-8 and just below M3 there are a couple of dudes with good records - Ichinojo at 7-1 and Chiyotariyu at 5-3. He's currently got 30 wins going back to November - four more wins would make his Ozeki run official. So do you give him the easy fights or the hard ones?

Today we found out he's scheduled to fight 5-3 Chiyotariyu. I suspect that means they have decided to put up as many barriers as possible in Takakeisho's path and will give him Ichinojo as well, but we'll see. In any case, that is good news for Shodai - it means he will have an easier run-in and might pick up a couple of wins that would give him a cushion on a likely long drop down the banzuke.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Note on Tochinoshin: he has Shodai tomorrow, presumably a win though Shodai does have a good record against him; his last six matches will be against the two Sekiwake, the other two Ozeki, Kakuryu and Hakuho. Can he get two wins from those last six? Very iffy.

[ursus arctos]

Number of entertaining bouts in today's highlights

[ursus arctos]

The winnowing continues, and we are down to only two rikishi within a win of Hakuho.

Highlights here.

[Wouter D]

Those two rikishi UA mentioned fought each other today. Highlights of day 11 here.

Takakeisho gossip: Show

Takakeisho is well underway to receive his promotion to Ozeki after this tournament. He did not get it last tournament, due to his suboptimal score in the September basho and being steamrollered by Goeido on the final day in the January tournament. In this basho he has already beaten the one Yokozuna, was narrowly defeated by the other, with a current score of 8-3. His remaining four matches will probably consist of the three Ozeki plus Ichinojo, of which two or three victories should suffice. Not easy at all, but not impossible if you're an Ozeki pretender and definitely not if you're already a tough nut to crack for the Yokozuna.

Further gossip: Show

I see a huge promotion in Ichinojo's near future, given that he is doing quite well, but mostly given that many people above him on the banzuke are performing abysmally. Kaisei (M1), Shodai (M3), Nishikigi (M3), and Hokutofuji (K) are already certain of ending with a make-koshi record, and Endo (M1), Tamawashi (S), Myogiryu (M2) all stand at 4-7, so some of those will fall too. Tochinoshin is currently at 6-5, but he hasn't looked too great and he still will have to fight all the tough opposition. Perhaps Ichinojo can get himself promoted to Komusubi, or even Sekiwake (especially if Takakeisho does receive his promotion).