Born on the 3rd July

[Janik]

We have a number of different Tennis threads springing up. But none specifically for Wimbledon. A hat tip to Tee Rex on the shift in the date, and lets start with the seeded draws as per... I’ll even call them by the proper titles here, but not after that.

Nominal Round 3

Gentlemen's Singles

Andy Murray GBr [1] vs Fabio Fognini Ita [28]
Nick Kyrgios Aus [20] vs Lucas Pouille Fra [14]
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Fra [12] vs Sam Querrey USA [24]
Fernando Verdasco Esp [31] vs Stan Wawrinka Sui [5]

Rafael Nadal Esp [4] vs Karen Khachanov Rus [30]
Ivo Karlovic Cro [21] vs Gilles Muller Lux [16]
Kei Nishikori Jpn [9] vs Roberto Bautista Agut Esp [18]
Steve Johnson USA [26] vs Marin Cilic Cro [7]


Milos Raonic Can [6] vs Albert Ramos Vinolas Esp [25]
Jack Sock USA [17] vs Alexander Zverev Ger [10]
Grigor Dimitrov Bul [13] vs John Isner USA [23]
Mikhail Zverev Ger [13] vs Roger Federer Sui [3]

Dominic Thiem Aut [8] vs Paolo Lorenzi Ita [32]
Richard Gasquet Fra [22] vs Tomas Berdych Cze [11]
Gael Monfils Fra [15] vs Feliciano Lopez Esp [19]
Juan Martin del Potro Arg [29] vs Novak Djokovic Srb [2]


Ladies' Singles

Angelique Kerber Ger [1] vs Lucie Safarova Cze [32]
Kiki Bertens Ned [23] vs Garbine Muguruza Esp [14]
Agnieszka Radwanska Pol [9] vs Timea Bacsinszky Sui [19]
Lauren Davis USA [28] vs Svetlana Kuznetsova Rus [7]

Karolina Pliskova Cze [3] vs Zhang Shuai Chn [30]
Daria Gavrilova Aus [20] vs Anastastia Pavlyuchenkova Rus [16]
Kristina Mladenovic Fra [12] vs Coco Vandeweghe USA [24]
Daria Kasatkina Rus [29] vs Caroline Woznaicki Den [5]


Dominika Cibulkova Svk [8] vs Ana Konjuh Cro [27]
Barbora Strycova Cze [22] vs Venus Williams USA [10]
Jelena Ostapenko Lat [13] vs Madison Keys USA [17]
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni Cro [26] vs Elena Svitolina Ukr [4]

Johanna Konta GBr [6] vs Roberta Vinci Ita [31]
Caroline Garcia Fra [21] vs Petra Kvitova Cze [11]
Elena Vesnina Rus [15] vs Anastasija Sevastova Lat [18]
Carla Suarez Navarro Esp [25] vs Simona Halep Rou [2]

[Janik]

One intriguing feature of these championships is that both the Men’s and Women’s No.1 rankings are up for grabs, and are so with a number of contenders for each. Murray, Nadal, Wawrinka and Djokovic could exit the tournament at the top of the Men’s pile, with three players having the possibility in the Womens: Kerber, Halep and Pliskova.
The starting grids (i.e their current totals on Monday minus last year’s points) look like this:
Men
1. Murray (7,390)
2. Nadal (7,285)
3. Wawrinka (6,130)
4. Djokovic (5,965)
Women
1. Pliskova (6,785)
2. Halep (6,240)
3. Kerber (5,735)

[Janik]

Burblings

Is the defending champion fit? The big question that. At least Andy Murray has the chance of easing himself in in R1. R2 might be a different kettle of fish as he could face Dustin Brown, whose all out attack is just so unusual these days. However Muzza should make R4 against Kyrgios, and then all bets are off. Winning a slam is difficult enough when you go into it fully fit, let along with question marks.
Novak Djokovic is without a slam to his name for the first time since in three years. Which is very different from 12 months ago, when he had all of them. He has brought Mario Ancic into his coaching team, which is being spun as a positive but surely is more of a sign that it isn’t ever going to work properly with Agassi. He also has a stacked little section of the draw, with potentially del Potro and Monfils or Lopez coming back-to-back to just make the QFs (if Djokovic vs Delpo happens it will be match of the day this coming Saturday). Tough, but also confidence building if he makes it through. Odd to think that Nole lacks confidence, but he does and if he can get it back he will become very, very dangerous.
Roger Federer is being widely tipped to win an 8th Wimbledon, on the basis of his form in Halle, where he looked imperious. And of course doing likewise in Melbourne. His draw is not a help, though. Like Djokovic he has a tough path just to make the last eight, starting with the best match of R1 vs Dolgopolov. And then Dimitrov or Isner in R4. And Mischa Zverev and Tomic are also hanging around (they also play each other in R1).
Rafa Nadal has not been handed the nicest draw, as he could be facing Istomin, Khachanov and Karolovic or Muller in rounds 2 to 4. Khachanov in particular looks like posing a threat on a grass court. He is very capable of a Rosol-like performance (Rosol is also in Rafa’s little sector, for what it’s worth). And Gilles Muller is a grass court specialist.
Beyond the big four, can Stan Wawrinka win Wimbledon? Likely not, he is too tied to the baseline. If it goes to seeding he will have an intrgiung R4 match against Tsonga, but it’s hard to see whoever wins that achieving much. That isn’t the case of whoever wins the putative Raonic vs Sascha Zverev R4 meeting. If that comes to pass (which, barring injury or Mahut taking Roanic out in R2 it surely will) then it will be the big match of R4 in the Men’s, and one that whoever wins will consider a significant obstacle cleared on their path to the title.
Marin Cilic has a tough looking opening two rounds (Kohlschreiber then the winner of Troicki vs Mayer). However his form at Queens was good, and if he negotiates those then a return to the QFs for a fourth straight year beckons. And if he gets to that, well he will have a distinctly good shot against Nadal/ANOther. But champion? Nah. Just as everyone said in New York in 2014.
I feel very safe ground saying the title winner won’t be Dominic Thiem. He is yet to make it past R2 and is the high men’s seed on the reddest alert ahead of a R1 meeting with Vasek Pospisil. That screams potential shock. If Thiem does fall early, does that clear Tomas Berdych’s path? Likely not, he is in no kind of form. In fact I would go with Richard Gasquet to make the QFs from that particular little area of the draw. And then lose, of course. Having publically backed Gasquet, now watch him go out in R1 to (unseeded this year) David Ferrer!
What of lower seeds or unranked? Well Feliciano Lopez is the Queens champion, which means something. But his age must count against him in a Slam. He could get a big showdown with Djokovic in R4 though. Nick Kyrgios? God knows with Kyrgios. He might be licking his lips in anticipation of an opportunity to take out a half-fit Murray in R4... if Kyrgios didn’t have his own hip injury concerns that is. Kei Nishikori is another like Kyrgios that seems to be perma-injured. Most recently in Halle. And just like Murray and Kyrgios, it’s a hip that is causing him grief.
Of the more unheralded players, Gilles Muller is so well adapted to grass, and is playing good stuff that he might spring a shock against Nadal in R4. But Muller is a veteran, any breakout stars? Well, no-one that knew in general, though maybe newish to British TV audience. The obvious choices for this are Sascha Zverev and Karen Khachanov. Or Thanasi Kokkinakis, who has a very good R1 match in prospect against del Potro.

[Janik]

No defending champion on the Women’s side as she is otherwise engaged being pregnant/castigating McEnroe for not respecting her privacy/posing nude on the cover of Vanity Fair. Girl has to remain busy.
That leaves Angie Kerber as technically the top performer, seeing as she is the no.1 seed and was runner-up last year. But she is so not playing like it. Her position on the race standings is 15th, and her performance last week in losing to Konta at Eastbourne shows how far she has fallen from her 2016 level. Her serve, which became a strength, is back to where it was in 2015 and prior; a means of starting a rally and as such a weakness. She has done well in Wimbledon recently... in the even numbered years. ’11, ’13 and ’15 read R1, R2, R3. Continuing that progression and making R4 looks the upper limit of her possibilities.
Simona Halep comes into the event with the No.1 ranking up for grabs, just as it was in the French Open final. In that event she showed that her new mental approach was good, but at the same time losing to an unseeded player from a set and a break up must be a very significant blow. Her game is not well adapted to grass, and her section of the draw has some notable floaters in it. Finally pushing through the glass ceiling looks unlikely here.
Not so for Karolina Pliskova, who won her second career grass court title yesterday. Ridiculously enough she has never made it past R2 of Wimbledon previously, but just like in Paris a month ago and the US Open last summer she should blow that one out of the water. That was true regardless of her draw, but that also helps as it looks very tractable. Her last three Slams read runner-up, QF, SF. Pliskova is the joint favourite for the event with most bookmakers, and that seems right to me. What we have been missing at Wimbledon is a tall Czech girl with a thunderous serve. Nice to see one finally appear...
Elena Svitolina has been top or close to it of the YTD rankings for nearly the whole season. However like a number of the other top 10 players she has limited form at SW19, and nothing much to speak of on grass at other venues. She also talked of missing the tournament with a heel injury after exiting in the event in Edgbaston. All of this adds up to her not even being the favourite to win her R1 match, which is about as tough as it could possibly be as she has landed Ash Barty.
Leading the next tranche of players is another in good form for the year, Caroline Wozniacki, but one with lots of grass experience. There was an injury scare in the Eastbourne Semi against Heather Watson, but the good news was that she played the final (that she lost is pretty irrelevant). Caroline’s relative success at Eastbourne has never translated to Wimbledon though, where, despite regularly being a very high seed, she is yet to reach the QFs. That trend could well continue if Coco Vandeweghe, who is perfectly adapt to grass, is fully fit, because if she is then Vandeweghe is a potential wild card right up to the final. However Coco is another with injury concerns, having retired with an ankle injury from Birmingham.
And then there is Jo Konta. Is her back right? If it isn’t, she will probably fall early as the Wimbledon draw computer has once again got it in for. Following last years Puig/Bouchard one-two punch, this year it has handed Jo Hseih Su-wei (who beat her five weeks ago in Paris) and then Donna Vekic (who did likewise three weeks back in Nottingham). Konta is actually third favourite with the bookies on account of her grass court prowess.
Even if Konta is fullys recovered, there is another very formidable obstacle in her path; Petra Kvitova, who she would nominally meet in R4. Kvitova is the joint favourite with Pliskova for the title, and home loyalties aside will surely be the emotional favourite. She was already popular with the Wimbledon crowd on the grounds of being the sort of nice girl that they like, and then she got criminally assaulted which nearly cost her her career. The champion in 2011 and 2014, it could be her turn again particularly as the other two players to have won since her first title (Serena and Marion Bartoli) are not involved. She showed form in winning the Birmingham title, but how if the fitness to go through two weeks?
Sveta Kuznetsova is the no.7 seed, but this is a player who last made the QFs a decade ago. The main threat for a deep run from the section of draw that Kuznetsova occupies is surely not her, but Aga Radwanska. Time is rapidly running out for Aga to turn being the most skilful player on Tour into being a Slam champion. Wimbledon is her only realistic chance of doing so. So these two weeks are always huge for her. She should make the QFs, could easily appear in the SFs but eventually will run into a power player playing too consistently well and be blown away again. Sadly.
Numbers 8 and 10 are Domi Cibulkova and Venus Williams. They occupy a sector, and would produce a very good match if they do indeed meet in R4. Cibulkova has a good grass pedigree (Eastbourne champ in 2016) and has all the right mental tools. She reached the QFs last year and has a decent looking route through the draw. Venus is another category, though. She is a five-time Wimbledon champion. However the last of those was in 2008 and she hasn’t been to the Final since the year after that. The last 12 months have seen something of a late career resurgence, with an SF appearance on these courts 12 months ago (l to Kerber) and then her first Slam Final since Wimbledon 2009 in Melbourne. The downside is that there is all that evidence that her fitness simply won’t last the pace of winning a slam, and then there is this car crash story which feels almost deliberately timed in its release to undermine her campaign.
Any others worth talking about? Well, the French Open champion certainly. If Jelena Ostapenko can use that win to take herself on a level and be consistent, then she will win many senior Wimbledon titles to go with her junior one. Grass has been generally regarded as her best (and favourite) surface, as it takes those powerful shots away from opponents. The big question, which this tournament and the US Open will answer, is where is her head at? That one is unanswerable until we see her in the later stages of a major with expectation rather than as a nothing-to-lose underdog.
And non-seeds? Well, one match R1 match in particular stands out – Vika Azarenka vs CiCi Bellis. Bellis is the latest great hope for the Americans of a steady top 5 presence. Vika finally looked over the injuries and back to her best just prior to the announcement of her pregnancy. Azarenka did play a warm-up in Mallorca, which was underwhelming (edged past Ozaki in R1, well beaten by Konjuh in R2), but I’m expecting her ramp up to full match pace to be quick. Indeed I’ll tip her as the Quarter-Finalist from the bottom eighth. But no further than that.
My breakout tip is Oceane Dodin, who faces Lucie Safarova in R1. Dodin is another of these hit the cover of it merchants, and one who likes quick surfaces. If she gets rolling, she will be hard to stop.

What are my tips, you say? Just as Eastbourne - Djokovic and Pliskova.

[Satchmo Distel]

It's going to come down to mental strength on the big days, which to me says Nadal. But I also think Murray could be playing rope a dope, and it wouldn't be the first time he has overcome an exaggerated injury scare. Federer and Novak are less convincing to me in the head to head scenarios, although Federer got one back on Rafa in the Australian.

Women - yeah, Pliskova. It is hers to lose. Venus is perhaps more likely to see a slammer than a Slam, but if she hits a groove on grass can beat anyone except Serena, so is always worth an Each Way bet. Konta would be my third choice if she did not have the injury scare, which looks too severe to overcome.

[Jimski]

Damn, Janik, I thought I was going to be considered leftfield in suggesting Djokovoic would win it! But you beat me to it. Agree with you on both winners, fwiw.

Though I actually think Safarova (rather than Dodin) will be the "surprise" package who goes further than expected. ("Surprise" only in the sense that she seemed until very recently to have lost any semblance of form.) Anyway, that top quarter of the draw does seem particularly open to anyone. Kerber in freefall, Muguruza struggling for form, Radwanska doing nothing much. I guess there's also Kuznetsova.

Anyway, I'm going with the "big four" as semifinalists for the men - Nadal the most vulnerable, I'd say, with Cilic as the possible beneficiary.

And for the women, 3 Czechs plus Venus Williams (if she can get her mind off that car crash ... if not, then Madison Keys instead.)

[Janik]

I nearly mentioned Keys, but then opted against it. It wouldn't have been positive. She returned to the court after surgery at Indian Wells. Her win-loss record since is 4-5. Ok a lot of that is on clay, clearly her worst surface by a distance, but that ain't good. Plus there is the reason why she has played no grass warmup events - she has had a second operation on the same wrist to correct some aspects of the first op that didn't go quite right. She says her team believed it wouldn't be ready for Wimbledon, but she was determined to play. It doesn't bode well.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

I'll tip Raonic and Cibulkova.

[Janik]

Day 1 picks

Cibulkova [8] vs Petkovic
Barty vs Svitolina [4]
Vekic vs Vikhlyantseva
Azarenka [PR] vs Bellis
Suarez Navarro [25] vs Bouchard

Tursonov [PR] vs Fognini [28]
Shapovalov [WC] vs Janowicz [PR]
Verdasco [31] vs Anderson
Troicki vs Mayer
Kohlschreiber vs Cilic [7]

Andrea Petkovic has been struggling this season (her ranking is down to #90), but she is the sort of player who could thrive on a big stage. Or a biggish one, as this match is scheduled third on Court 12. Which is a show court, but not one of the main ones. Domi Cibulkova has QF points to defend, and is a better grass court player. She should win, but if Petko hits form it could be off Domi’s racquet.
As noted above, Ash Barty is the bookies favourite to beat 4th seed Svitolina. That can’t be usual, and shows now nasty a draw that Elena has landed here. It also has something to do with her recent injury, which looked a bad one. Barty is an excellent all-round player (indeed all-round sportswoman), which really helps on grass. Plus her serve is nippy, giving returners the hurry-up. The prices probably reflect an amount of patriotic Aussie betting, but they don’t look that far from reality. This will be the second match on Court 3.
Ferreted away on an outside court (the fourth match on #8), Vekic vs Vikhlyantseva will attract those who follow the WTA closely. It’s just over two weeks since these two, aged 21 and 20 respectively, were playing grass court Tour Finals, Vekic beating Konta in Nottingham and Vikhlyantseva going down to Kontaveit at 's-Hertogenbosch. Both are clearly capable on the surface, so it will hopefully be a high-class match for any that seek it out.
Azarenka vs Bellis is a confrontation of the established against the fresh-faced, but with the added intrigue of the substantially more experienced player making a comeback. If CiCi Bellis manages to emulate the career that Vika Azarenka has had to date then she and those whose hopes hang on her will consider it a success, but maybe only a partial one. The sky does appear to be the limit for the young American. Beating the mother hen would set down a(nother) significant marker.
Two former top ten players clash in Suarez Navarro and Bouchard. One has fallen rather father than the other. However Genie does like grass, whilst it really isn’t Carla’s surface. The Canadian has a chance of an upset here. She needs it, because she reached R3 last year and really can’t afford another ranking hit (the in-running ranks have in the mid-60s). As with Azarenka vs Bellis, this match is not to be played not before 5pm on a court TBC. They are essentially being held back in case play races through on one of the ticketed courts.

Dmitry Tursunov was unable to avoid sticking his nose in to the Jonny Mac-Serena schmozzle last week. His nominal reason for getting involved was that his ranking is currently around the 700 mark that McEnroe estimated was Serena’s level. The real reason is that Tursonov is a confrontational soul, who thrives on this sort of thing. Fabio Fognini is also rather spiky. There could be fireworks. It shouldn’t be a mismatch, because, as Tursonov notes, he is much better than the 700th best. His presence here, via a protected ranking, is proof of that. And he is much more comfortable on grass than the Italian. I think he’ll win. First match on Court 17, for those who fancy a bracing time.
Another player coming back from injury (of sorts) is former Semi-Finalist and top 20 player Jerzy Janowicz. In fact the tall Pole has been back for a while, but clearly still had a PR stored up to use at Wimbledon, which makes sense with his massive game. It will be a challenge for the young talent of Denis Shapovalov, who is starting to make a name for himself for things other than braining Umpires. He has already demonstrated that he likes the big stage in his first ever top 50 win, which came over Kyrgios in front of a home crowd at the Canada Open. Though this will be a little more in the sticks, being played first on Court 7. I go with the Canadian, I think.
Fernando Verdasco’s brand of power Tennis can be effective on grass, as his run to the QFs in 2013 proved. That was only ended by Andy Murray, in Murray’s closest squeak en route to his first Wimbledon title (Verdasco led by two sets to love). However playing someone with as big a serve as Kevin Anderson is a challenge for anyone. The South African is not ranked quite where he once was (his career high is #10), but is ranked only just outside the seedings making him probably the most dangerous floater in the Men’s draw. And, I think, the favourite for this one. It could be a long one involving tie-breaks gets a show court billing, the second match on Court 18.
Both Viktor Troicki and Florian Mayer have had past success on grass. They are comfortable with the surface. However the approaches are rather different; Troicki uses power to make use of the speed of the surface, Mayer goes more for guile to exploit the low bounce. It should make for a fascinating contrast in styles and another that will draw aficionados looking for intriguing outside court match-ups (this one is being played third on Court 11).
The winner of Troicki-Mayer plays the man who comes through between Philipp Kohlschreiber and Marin Cilic. Again we have two players with grass court pedigrees. Both are past Wimbledon quarter-finalists and have one title from three finals on the surface, which, given how short the grass seasons are nowadays, counts as significant! However Cilic’s success is has continued to the very, very recent past, whilst veteran Kohlschreiber’s is getting smaller and smaller in the rear view mirror. Beating Cilic might be one last hurrah. They do have a decent amphitheatre for it, with the match taking place third on Court 2.

[Janik]

Brit-watch

Konta [6] vs Hseih
N.Broady [WC] vs Begu
Zanevska vs Watson [WC]
Haddad Maia vs Robson [WC]
A.Murray [1] vs Bublik [LL]
Tsonga [12] vs Norrie [WC]
Karlovic [21] vs Bedene

Jo Konta is third on Court 1 versus Hseih Su-wei. It is her alone that has got the match that billing. And so the questions arise; is she fit? Can she handle the pressure that will be on her? If there are movement issues, be it either back or nerves, Hseih’s unconventional game could prove a serious problem. Just as it did in Paris. However if Jo is on decent form, then she should blow the Taiwanese away on the quicker surface.
Naomi Broady has been rather overlooked, not even getting one of the lesser show courts like #12 or #18 (she is third on Court 14). She has a genuine chance of winning her match though, if she serves well. It would be Irina-Camelia Begu all the way on clay and probably on hard, but on grass the girl from Stockport is right in this one.
If Heather Watson could have hand-picked her draw, it would probably have been Maryna Zanevska. The Belgium (via Ukraine) was the last in to the main draw as an alternate. She has no particular record on grass, with nothing much better than a QF in the Ilkley Challenger. It doesn’t compare with the Eastbourne Semis. Watson is a strong favourite to win, in the fourth and last scheduled match of the day on Court 2.
Also a good draw for Laura Robson, as Beatriz Haddad Maia is a clay courter ranked just under the 100 mark. She made her grand slam debut in Paris a month ago (lost in R1) and has never won a Tour level match on grass. Or indeed an ITF main draw match on the surface, either! However Robson’s form is so patchy that she could well look a gift horse in the mouth. This match opens the championship on Court 18, and I’m not expecting a high quality encounter.
Talking of opening the championships, Andy Murray takes the traditional champions bow on Centre Court against Lucky Loser Alexander Bublik. There was at least some merit to Bublik’s selection for the spare place, as he was one of two players who lost their final qualifying match 12-10 in the fifth set (the other was John-Patrick Smith). However this looks a good draw for Murray to ease himself in. But then Jordan Thompson looked likewise at Queens…
Cameron Norrie has done the rounds of the English-speaking world prior to landing up here. South African born, New Zealand brought up, switched to Britain aged 16 but found things stalling so headed across to the US to pursue a college career (his home residence still listed as Forth Worth, where he studied up until April). And now a Wimbledon debut as a home player. Against mutliple former Semi-Finalist Jo-Willy Tsonga, no less. Norrie will need to be a confident young man to win this. He probably is, though, seeing as his college ranking was No.1, his record for TCU in his last season was 10-0 and he has shot up the rankings since turning Pro. As Steve Johnson has recently proved, College Tennis still provides a good grounding. So maybe… but surely not. They get the first use of Court 2 as their stage.
And finally, Aljaz Bedene’s challenge against Ivo Karlovic in the third match on Court 3 – watch the aces go by. Very hard to see a win for the Brit here if Ivo is in any sort of groove on his delivery. Any rally that gets past three shots things will massively favour Bedene, who is much younger and more mobile (Karlovic was never swift, and he is an ultra-vet at 38 these days), but keep the ball alive to that point is not going to be easy. Aljaz’s best chance will be surviving to tie-breaks and hoping against hope.

[Etienne]

Bedene does have a 3-0 H2H vs Karlovic, but none of those have been on grass I don't think.

[Etienne]

Ready? Play!

[Janik]

Wouldn't it be nice if they managed to start on time on at least one court, which would be 11:35 on the outside ones and 13:05 on Centre/1? I don't really get why Tennis players are indulge in delaying the start to the extent that they are. Most other sports are clear - the match starts at this time, it's up to you to be ready.

I particularly like the Hockey one at International tournaments. The game begins whether both sides are on the pitch or not. Be late, and pay the price.

[Etienne]

Haddad Maia looks like she might have a serve that is quite suited to grass.

Norrie has a big big backswing on his forehand, makes you expect something like Kyle Edmund's level of power. Instead it's a bit meh. He's an accurate player but a bit underpowered against Tsonga.

[Etienne]

Brown and Kygios are both a set down, so Murray's notional route could be quite different.

[Janik]

Hip, hip... ouch my hip

Murray - looked fine to be, though Pat Cash on the radio detected a bit of a limp.
Kyrgios - definitely not feeling right, retired hurt after losing the first two sets to Hugues-Herbert. As always with Kyrgios there will be some questions about how bad the injury was compared to how much he couldn't be bothered battling through a slight niggle.

Murray-Bublik is fun, old school Tennis. All chips, angles, lobs and drops. However if Bublik wants to win he needs to up the pace, he won't beat Andy playing the touch game. Unfortunately from everything that has been said, the touch game is Bublik's game.

Laura Robson, well... To be fair as Etienne notes upthread I did underestimate Haddad Maia, she will actually provides a decent challenge on grass with a good lefty slice serve and comfort on the volley (one of her few wins in grass qualifying competitions is against Petra Martic, which makes more sense having watched a bit of her). However Robson was still pretty damn poor, again. In the end it was kind of easy for the Brazilian, with just a bit of nerves at the end about claiming her first ever win in a Slam main draw. Which she greeted with a massive yell of satisfaction.

Tsonga cruised past Norrie, who looked like he was trying too hard.

[Janik]

Dustin Brown has just won in four, so he awaits Murray. That should be fun.

Madison Keys beat Nao Hibino as well. The start was reportedly scratchy, but she came through, which is the main thing. One might almost say the key... [kaboom, tish!]

Karen Khachanov has been taken the distance by older Russian Andrey Kuznetsov, who has a decent record at Wimbledon (R3 in his last two visits). That would be disappointing if the young gun loses.

Venus Williams is in a first set tie-break against Elise Mertens, and has just blown a number of set points. Williams vs Mertens was one of five Women's matches on my long list of picks of the day, before it got whittled down. Lisicki vs Konjuh, Giorgi vs Cornet, Konta vs Hsieh and Kr.Pliskova vs Vinci were the others to be cut.

[Janik]

Venus gets it done in the end, 9-7.
Barty is about to serve for the first set against Svitolina at 5-4.
Shapovalov is 6-5 up on serve in set four against Janowicz, but two sets to one down.
And Khachanov is a break up in the final set against Kuzentsov.

And now I'll switch back off, as that is the end of lunchtime.

[multipleman78]

After all the talk about Murray struggling with an injury, his projected route has softened up a bit due to injuries to Kyrgios and Wawrinka.

Konta looked very good in her match and Watson got over a 2nd set wobble. Both of those ladies should be looking for a good run.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Won't quote the post but as Janik predicted it's a serve fest between Bedene and Karlovic, into the final set without a break in serve.

[Janik]

Bedene eventually registered a break of serve in the 64th game of the match. And the last, as that gave Bedene the deciding set 8-6. I'm not surprised that Aljaz struggled so much to break Karlovic's serve, I'm more impressed that he went over four hours unbroken on his own delivery.

[Various Artist]

Two tremendous service return winners from Bedene too, when he finally got Karlovic to deuce at 6-7 in the final set. Deserved to win the match with those, good for him.

[Janik]

Fritz [Q] vs Isner [23]
Dolgopolov vs Federer [3]
Thiem [8] vs Pospisil
Gasquet [22] vs Ferrer
del Potro [29] vs Kokkinakis [PR]

Dodin vs Safarova [32]
A.Radwanska [9] vs Jankovic
Puig vs Bacsinszky [19]
Jabeur [Q] vs Kuznetsova [7]
Babos vs Wozniacki [5]


Taylor Fritz was a rapidly rising youngster a year ago; he turned pro directly after winning the 2015 US Open Boys Singles, having previously been the runner-up in Roland Garros, and flew up the rankings with Challenger titles and an appearance in an ATP World Tour Final in just his third ever event at that level (in Memphis, l to Nishikori), and took Federer to three sets on grass in Stuttgart. By the US Open last year he was up to 53 in the world, still aged 18… and today he is back down at 128. This isn’t injury, either, just pure loss of form. This wasn’t part of the plan at all. Coming through qualifying is hopefully a sign that the good times are coming back, the trajectory to the eventual top 10 has only suffered a blip. A win over John Isner would confirm it. Expect lots of heavy serving and heavy forehands, as both are from the modern American Tennis player template – basically could be playing Basketball. It’s on quite an intimate court, #14, the last match of the day. If I was a spectator at that one I might bring a cricket helmet for safety (yes, true, #14 only sits people at the sides, not at the end).
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Roger Federer should be a feast of shot-making for those in the crowd who stay for the last match on Centre Court crowd. The Ukrainian hits a powerful ball, but also a deceptive one. He will mix heavy topspins that leap away with slices and chip-charges. An all-courter of the old school. Whether this can ruffle Federer’s feathers is another matter. Unorthodox play unsettles some of the metronomes on the Tours (both genders) but Roger is anything but that. For players comfortable in their own skills, Dolgopolov’s variations are more the choice for a less optimal shot.
Dominic Thiem has won a grass court title in his career, at Stuttgart last year, but that is very much an exception; clay is his surface. Back-to-back French Open semis attest to this. By contrast his best in Melbourne and New York is R4 and he hasn’t been past R2 at Wimbledon yet. Vasek Pospisil is a player made for fast surfaces, with a big serve and a go forward attitude. He is a past Wimbledon Men’s Doubles champion and Men’s Singles quarterfinalist. 2016 was inconsistent as he finish outside the top 100 having previously been a regular in the top 50, but he has bounced back from that well in 2017 with a lot of success on the Challenger Tour lifting him back towards his proper ranking. He is quite capable of beating Thiem on grass, which would be another step back up the ranks. I smell a shock. The schedulers possibly likewise, as they have a big stage for this match – Court 1. Third on.
It seems that David Ferrer is finally fading out. The last time he played a Slam as a non-seed was the 2005 Aussie Open. His performance in Melbourne this year (R3) was his worst since 2010. And his showing in Paris (R2) equaled his earliest ever eliminations in his first two tries at that event. Unless his form picks up in the rest of 2017, one has to wonder if he will continue for 2018? The threat to Gasquet therefore comes in the form of a last hurrah. It will have to be that, because Richard’s own form is strong; Semis in both Halle and Esatbourne. The very idea that Ferrer winning a R1 match in a Slam would count as a shock is hard to get one’s head around, but that is the reality here. Also reflecting the new world is that this takes place at 11:30am on Court 12.
Del Potro and Kokkinakis could spend hours comparing medical notes. The big Argentine’s career hasn’t quite been ruined by his wrist problems, he has still managed significant achievements, but it will always be a what might have been with him (see also Soderling and Ancic to an even greater extent). In some ways he is a great lost talent, the fifth Beatle. However the ability is still in there, and we may yet get to see him add to his sole US Open crown. The worry with Thanasi Kokkinakis is that he has already suffered the litany of injuries aged 21. He might not even manage the isolated peaks that Delpo has. Which would be a real pity, as unlike some other Aussies he seems a decent guy and as results like beating Milos Raonic at Queens show is clearly very able when he is fit enough to take to the court. Which in this particular case will be No.2, first thing.

I’ve already trailed my belief that Oceane Dodin could be the breakout star of these championships. Her game is big and aggressive, with an emphasis on moving up the court and ending rallies. She serves large. She has an arrogance and tunnel-vision about her that is common in the best players. Her ranking trajectory is up-and-up, with the most recent landmark being breaking the top 50 following Roland Garros. She is yet to make it past R2 of a Slam, but even this isn’t as bad as it seems – all but one of her exits have been over three sets, many of these against seeds. When she gets past that early stage, she will run and run. Lucie Safarova will need to be on her mettle today. Safarova has advantages, the typical Czech ones of a big serve and a generalised comfort with the idea of playing on grass. Evidence of that: a Semi in Birmingham and a previous last four run here. That Birmingham run ended with retirement, but it didn’t seem that serious. The challenge will come more from the other side of the net. Dodin won’t die wondering, so expect some explosive hitting. Court 12, fourth match, is their stage.
Agnieszka Radwanska vs Jelena Jankovic sounds like it should be a quarter of semi from five years ago. Expect that Jelena has never made it past R4 on her worst surface (she has at least one Semi appearance at all the other slams). And like Ferrer, her career is surely now in terminal decline. No titles since 2015, no finals or top ten wins in 2017. Plus game styles don’t favour the Jankovic; she is a counter-puncher, and Radwanska doesn’t have the pace of shot to allow counter-punchers to play their game. They follow Delpo-Kokkinakis on to court 2, where I think Aga will tie Jelena up in knots.
Monica Puig vs Timea Bacsinszky looks a knife-edge one to me. Bacsinszky has had the most success on clay, but that shouldn’t prevent her also succeeding on grass as her mix of baseline power and willingness to come forward and use touch is effective on both the extreme surfaces. Indeed Wimbledon is her next most successful Slam after Paris (QF in 2015). Olympic champion Puig is the other way, basically playing hard court Tennis on everything. Which can be effective. The Puerto Rican’s maximal level, which came out in Rio, is extremely high (she looked genuinely unbeatable that week), but it’s inconsistent and like many hard courters she can get thrown by variations. So it has to be the Swiss here. But it should be high quality… when they get to play, as this is one of those Not Before 5pm, Court TBA matches that could end up on Centre or 1.
There has been a fuss recently around Ons Jabeur, particularly at Roland Garros where she sneaked in to the main draw as a lucky loser and then made the most of it by reaching R3, taking a massive scalp in Dominika Cibulkova along the way. Simply making the third round there made Jabeur the most successful Arab woman in Slam ever, surpassing her Tunisian colleague Selina Sfar who reached R2 on a few occasions. Jabeur will probably do more than that, in time. She is still young (22) and has one French Open girls singles title and another runner-up finish behind her from juniors. Grass is a different matter, though she has won some ITFs on it, and came through qualifying (which she won’t need to play in New York following her rankings rise) to get her shot at Svetlana Kuznetsova. Jabeur has the power in her game to spring an upset, and also has serious momentum behind her at the moment. They have even been given a show court to play it on, the last on Court 2 today.
Caroline Wozniacki has been in significant form in 2017 so far, getting herself back into the top 10 and making a joint WTA leading 4 tournament finals, including Eastbourne last week. The only slight fly in the ointment – she has lost all four! And she has never done all that much at Wimbledon, with a best ever result of R4. The problem is, for all her determination, fitness and scrambling, when she comes across a power player playing well on most surfaces and particularly on grass, Caro loses. And Timea Babos is potentially exactly that. The Hungarian may be rather more known for her doubles (the runner-up here both last year and 2014) but she was not far outside of being seeded and has the big serve, big groundies and willingness to close the net down that make her a live hand grenade for seeds on grass. Consistency is an issue for Babos, but if she is on form then Wozniacki will need all her grit to scramble through. It could be very good, and is another being held back in case the show court programme ends early.

[Mumpo]

Heard Murray on the radio, he said he'd had a nice bath every night. Good to see he's receiving all the most up-to-date treatment.

[KGR]

After being at the Nottingham Open final two weeks ago, I am not at all confident that Konta will beat Vekic.