Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Mont St Michel, my belle - Tour de France 2016

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Mont St Michel, my belle - Tour de France 2016

    Not a great Tour that, although at least it completed safely and successfully. I suspect it was closer to being called off after the Nice attacks than was necessarily apparent at the time. The racing for the GC was too defensive after Sky locked it down. There was one great day, to St Gervais last Friday, and it was also good to see a large number of breakaways succeed.

    Froome won because he was the best rider on every terrain, he showed more tactical awareness than his previous victories and looked more comfortable in his own skin. When his career ends I expect we'll look back on this as his most dominant victory. I do wonder how much longer the Froome Era will carry on for though, there have been murmurings that what with his kid he's getting tired of spending weeks on end in a hotel on a mountain in Tenerife. Also it was very pleasing that we didn't have endless blather about doping this year.

    Said this before on here, but I don't think Quintana has the skillset to win the Tour - the Giro / Vuelta yes, the Tour not. He seems to get frazzled by the nervousness on the flat stages and then can't switch to the mountains. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if he bypasses July entirely next year as the prospect of duffing up Zakarin and Kruijswijk in Italy must be more appealing. If he does do the Tour Movistar need to have a major rethink on their whole approach. The Route du Sud is plainly inadequate as a preparation race, he should follow everyone else and do the Dauphine. Their tactics need to be more imaginative - the moment when David Millar said "I just don't understand what Movistar are doing" in commentary was rather telling. I see Nairo has already pulled out of the Olympics, presumably to prepare for the Vuelta.

    Bardet is the real deal and now has to cope with the pressure of being France's main man instead of Pinot. I think he'll cope with this, he's approaching his peak and he could very well win the whole thing in a couple of years. Expect a "Bardet friendly" route soon.

    Adam Yates did very well to finish 4th but I'm not convinced he will do any better. He needs to ride further up the group for a start, though that should fade out once he grows in confidence. What he did show signs of was fading in the third week, which is worrying given how defensive the race was. You either can cope with the third week or you can't (hello, Bauke Mollema), it's not something that really comes with experience.

    Cav rolled back the years brilliantly, although the all time stage record still seems some way off, especially as you assume Ewan and / or Gaviria will be there next year, and Groenewegen will improve. Kittel was disappointing. Sagan was outstanding again, three stages, green jersey again, lots of attacking, and he's still only 26.

    I also see the commissaires revised the initial result yesterday and Purito climbed back to 7th as they implemented the 3k rule following the Cofidis rider who crashed. That's rather a liberal interpretation of it.

    Comment


      Mont St Michel, my belle - Tour de France 2016

      How likely is it that Froome will ride La Vuelta? That's the current talk.

      Comment


        Mont St Michel, my belle - Tour de France 2016

        Oh, very likely I should think. I reckon winning the Vuelta is an itch he wants to scratch, and Tour-Vuelta is a doable double. Usually you'd expect the Giro-Vuelta people to be in with a better chance of getting up to a performance peak but remember that the top of the Giro GC was:

        Nibali - also rode the Tour
        Chaves
        Valverde - also rode the Tour
        Kruijswijk
        Majka - also rode the Tour
        Jungels
        Uran
        Amador
        Atapuma
        Siutsou

        There's one name there who stands out as a possible Vuelta threat to someone of Froome's quality and who didn't also ride the Tour. Chaves. He also came fifth in last year's Vuelta in a tough field.

        Chaves aside, the biggest contenders for the Vuelta will be people we have seen at the Tour, such as Aru, Bardet, Meintjes, Pinot perhaps and whoever else gets to lead their team.

        Apart from one other obvious contender, of course, who will be looking to complete his only GT of the year.



        (But yeah, if anyone sees good odds on Chaves that look each-wayable... it might be worth a punt.)

        Comment


          Mont St Michel, my belle - Tour de France 2016

          Ah. PP have got their Vuelta odds up. And now I want to start the annual Vuelta and ToB dual thread. But it's surely too early... isn't it?

          Quintana 6/4
          Froome 5/2
          Contador 4/1
          Chaves 5/1 (bugger)
          Purito 9/1
          Kruijswijk 22/1
          Uran 25/1
          MA Lopez 33/1
          Kreuziger 33/1
          Amador 40/1
          Izaguirre 50/1
          Tejay 50/1
          Talansky 66/1 (he dropped off the radar a bit this year)
          Gesink 66/1
          Nieve 80/1
          Samu 80/1
          König 125/1
          Moreno 150/1
          Atapuma 150/1
          Peraud 150/1
          Elissonde 150/1
          Taaramae 150/1
          Geniez 200/1
          Cardoso 200/1
          Jungels 200/1
          Navarro 200/1
          Zubeldia 200/1
          Seb Henao 200/1
          Betancur 300/1
          Arroyo 300/1
          Brambilla 300/1
          Dupont 300/1
          Monfort 300/1
          Roche 400/1
          Valls 400/1

          Comment


            Mont St Michel, my belle - Tour de France 2016

            I'm not sure Froome will ride the Vuelta, simply because it starts a mere ten days after the Olympic time trial and there won't be the time to have a purposeful training camp or recce any climbs. He'd essentially be relying on holding his form. Could see Sky sending him for a pleasant jaunt round the Tour of Britain and then shutting him down for the season.

            Comment


              Mont St Michel, my belle - Tour de France 2016

              Ah, hadn't really thought about the Olympic side of things.

              Also, Sky will be wanting to give König, Roche and Nieve something to get excited about too.

              Comment

              Working...
              X