It's been almost 2 decades since Maddux and Glavine did that Nike ad and steroids were inflating numbers. While MLB experts worry that there's not enough offense, I think baseball fans have to be pleased with the balance of play. Anyway, I'm taking a chance going with my picks this early given the possibility of major injuries to key players but I'm usually wrong so injuries won't affect things too much.
AL East
Toronto
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Rays
I have no idea how Baseball Prospectus has the Rays winning this division. The best known starting pitchers are still recovering from major surgeries, the bullpen is always chopped and changed, and I don't see any added power that will make a difference. The Blue Jays should win this thing but I think the Yankees can surprise. I was going to go with the Red Sox but I think they've got too much dead weight locked in with Hanley and the fat Panda who is a playoff star and a regular season middling.
AL Central
White Sox
Royals
Tigers
Indians
Twins
Twins had a great season last year but I don't see that repeating. The Royals should still be in the mix but they have had weak starting pitching for too long; that can't last. Tigers have the most talent but are old and will probably be hit with injuries. I look for the talent on the White Sox, which is at a decent age, to finally come through. With that said, I think it's either first or worst for the White Sox. If it's the latter, Ventura is out by the all-star break.
AL West
Rangers
Astros
Mariners
Angels
As
I have been picking the Angels for a while. They're too injury prone, starting pitching is weak, and they have not filled important holes. I thin Mariners are finally built to be a team instead of a collection of OF/DH/bad 1st base types but I don't trust that they will pull it together given the total remake of that team. Astros strike out rate is way too high for my tastes. Rangers, who I hate so I hate to pick them to win it, seem to have the most depth. Oakland are impossible for me to assess. Billy Bean needs to stand pat for a year or two instead of changing half of his team every off season.
NL West
Dodgers
Giants
Diamondbacks
Padres
Rockies
Giants really should win but I don't think they will. As I've said the past year+, I don't know what this braintrust in LA is doing. They pay a lot of money for b-level players. At least Ned spent big on big players. The starting pitching scares me but I do understand not locking up 60 million per season on two starting pitchers. Diamondbacks were one of the top defensive and offensive sides last season but had bad pitching. They have moved some parts around, which has hurt the defense. Grenke has been healthy and I assume that can't last. Miller isn't a true number 2 in my mind. Padres could surprise us since they do have a strong starting staff.
AL Central
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Reds
Brewers
Everyone is super high on the Cubs. I worry about the starting pitching. Arietta can't be as good as he was last season. If Lester or Lackey gets hurt, the rotation gets thin in a hurry. And they're going to have a hard time figuring out how to play all these young guys. I don't see why they needed to sign Heyward. He's weak with the bat and although a stud in the field, they've disrupted the playing time for the kids. Cardinals don't seem to get enough love for a team that won a lot of games in the regular season last year. Either way, I expect that the Pirates and Giants will fight for the last WC spot unless the Cubs fizzle.
NL East
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Phillies
Braves
The Nats should win but I am not sure if this is a team that really knows how to win. Dusty should calm the clubhouse but we'll see. Mets had a great second half last year. The pitchers will be healthy, but they were worked hard last season. I'm not sold on the offense. And they have moved Cespedes out of a position where he is one of the best in the league to a position where he is below league average. These moves (as would have happened had the Cubs not re-signed Fowler) create too many problems. The White Sox are a great example here. Many of their busts have been caused by signing people to play out of position.
Wild Cards: SF, Cardinals (NL) and Yanks, Royals (AL)
World Series: Dodgers beat Rangers
I have picked the Dodgers 3 years in a row now (or maybe 4) and obviously have not been correct. Some of these picks have been with the heart and some based on the payroll. But the reality is that this Dodgers side is nothing like those big payroll Yankees sides in the late-90s and early-2000s (a core group of homegrown players who wanted to win and had skills that were blended with the best free agents).
AL East
Toronto
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Rays
I have no idea how Baseball Prospectus has the Rays winning this division. The best known starting pitchers are still recovering from major surgeries, the bullpen is always chopped and changed, and I don't see any added power that will make a difference. The Blue Jays should win this thing but I think the Yankees can surprise. I was going to go with the Red Sox but I think they've got too much dead weight locked in with Hanley and the fat Panda who is a playoff star and a regular season middling.
AL Central
White Sox
Royals
Tigers
Indians
Twins
Twins had a great season last year but I don't see that repeating. The Royals should still be in the mix but they have had weak starting pitching for too long; that can't last. Tigers have the most talent but are old and will probably be hit with injuries. I look for the talent on the White Sox, which is at a decent age, to finally come through. With that said, I think it's either first or worst for the White Sox. If it's the latter, Ventura is out by the all-star break.
AL West
Rangers
Astros
Mariners
Angels
As
I have been picking the Angels for a while. They're too injury prone, starting pitching is weak, and they have not filled important holes. I thin Mariners are finally built to be a team instead of a collection of OF/DH/bad 1st base types but I don't trust that they will pull it together given the total remake of that team. Astros strike out rate is way too high for my tastes. Rangers, who I hate so I hate to pick them to win it, seem to have the most depth. Oakland are impossible for me to assess. Billy Bean needs to stand pat for a year or two instead of changing half of his team every off season.
NL West
Dodgers
Giants
Diamondbacks
Padres
Rockies
Giants really should win but I don't think they will. As I've said the past year+, I don't know what this braintrust in LA is doing. They pay a lot of money for b-level players. At least Ned spent big on big players. The starting pitching scares me but I do understand not locking up 60 million per season on two starting pitchers. Diamondbacks were one of the top defensive and offensive sides last season but had bad pitching. They have moved some parts around, which has hurt the defense. Grenke has been healthy and I assume that can't last. Miller isn't a true number 2 in my mind. Padres could surprise us since they do have a strong starting staff.
AL Central
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Reds
Brewers
Everyone is super high on the Cubs. I worry about the starting pitching. Arietta can't be as good as he was last season. If Lester or Lackey gets hurt, the rotation gets thin in a hurry. And they're going to have a hard time figuring out how to play all these young guys. I don't see why they needed to sign Heyward. He's weak with the bat and although a stud in the field, they've disrupted the playing time for the kids. Cardinals don't seem to get enough love for a team that won a lot of games in the regular season last year. Either way, I expect that the Pirates and Giants will fight for the last WC spot unless the Cubs fizzle.
NL East
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Phillies
Braves
The Nats should win but I am not sure if this is a team that really knows how to win. Dusty should calm the clubhouse but we'll see. Mets had a great second half last year. The pitchers will be healthy, but they were worked hard last season. I'm not sold on the offense. And they have moved Cespedes out of a position where he is one of the best in the league to a position where he is below league average. These moves (as would have happened had the Cubs not re-signed Fowler) create too many problems. The White Sox are a great example here. Many of their busts have been caused by signing people to play out of position.
Wild Cards: SF, Cardinals (NL) and Yanks, Royals (AL)
World Series: Dodgers beat Rangers
I have picked the Dodgers 3 years in a row now (or maybe 4) and obviously have not been correct. Some of these picks have been with the heart and some based on the payroll. But the reality is that this Dodgers side is nothing like those big payroll Yankees sides in the late-90s and early-2000s (a core group of homegrown players who wanted to win and had skills that were blended with the best free agents).
Comment