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Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

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    Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

    It's been almost 2 decades since Maddux and Glavine did that Nike ad and steroids were inflating numbers. While MLB experts worry that there's not enough offense, I think baseball fans have to be pleased with the balance of play. Anyway, I'm taking a chance going with my picks this early given the possibility of major injuries to key players but I'm usually wrong so injuries won't affect things too much.

    AL East

    Toronto
    Yankees
    Red Sox
    Orioles
    Rays

    I have no idea how Baseball Prospectus has the Rays winning this division. The best known starting pitchers are still recovering from major surgeries, the bullpen is always chopped and changed, and I don't see any added power that will make a difference. The Blue Jays should win this thing but I think the Yankees can surprise. I was going to go with the Red Sox but I think they've got too much dead weight locked in with Hanley and the fat Panda who is a playoff star and a regular season middling.

    AL Central

    White Sox
    Royals
    Tigers
    Indians
    Twins

    Twins had a great season last year but I don't see that repeating. The Royals should still be in the mix but they have had weak starting pitching for too long; that can't last. Tigers have the most talent but are old and will probably be hit with injuries. I look for the talent on the White Sox, which is at a decent age, to finally come through. With that said, I think it's either first or worst for the White Sox. If it's the latter, Ventura is out by the all-star break.

    AL West

    Rangers
    Astros
    Mariners
    Angels
    As

    I have been picking the Angels for a while. They're too injury prone, starting pitching is weak, and they have not filled important holes. I thin Mariners are finally built to be a team instead of a collection of OF/DH/bad 1st base types but I don't trust that they will pull it together given the total remake of that team. Astros strike out rate is way too high for my tastes. Rangers, who I hate so I hate to pick them to win it, seem to have the most depth. Oakland are impossible for me to assess. Billy Bean needs to stand pat for a year or two instead of changing half of his team every off season.

    NL West

    Dodgers
    Giants
    Diamondbacks
    Padres
    Rockies

    Giants really should win but I don't think they will. As I've said the past year+, I don't know what this braintrust in LA is doing. They pay a lot of money for b-level players. At least Ned spent big on big players. The starting pitching scares me but I do understand not locking up 60 million per season on two starting pitchers. Diamondbacks were one of the top defensive and offensive sides last season but had bad pitching. They have moved some parts around, which has hurt the defense. Grenke has been healthy and I assume that can't last. Miller isn't a true number 2 in my mind. Padres could surprise us since they do have a strong starting staff.

    AL Central

    Cubs
    Cardinals
    Pirates
    Reds
    Brewers

    Everyone is super high on the Cubs. I worry about the starting pitching. Arietta can't be as good as he was last season. If Lester or Lackey gets hurt, the rotation gets thin in a hurry. And they're going to have a hard time figuring out how to play all these young guys. I don't see why they needed to sign Heyward. He's weak with the bat and although a stud in the field, they've disrupted the playing time for the kids. Cardinals don't seem to get enough love for a team that won a lot of games in the regular season last year. Either way, I expect that the Pirates and Giants will fight for the last WC spot unless the Cubs fizzle.

    NL East

    Nationals
    Mets
    Marlins
    Phillies
    Braves

    The Nats should win but I am not sure if this is a team that really knows how to win. Dusty should calm the clubhouse but we'll see. Mets had a great second half last year. The pitchers will be healthy, but they were worked hard last season. I'm not sold on the offense. And they have moved Cespedes out of a position where he is one of the best in the league to a position where he is below league average. These moves (as would have happened had the Cubs not re-signed Fowler) create too many problems. The White Sox are a great example here. Many of their busts have been caused by signing people to play out of position.

    Wild Cards: SF, Cardinals (NL) and Yanks, Royals (AL)

    World Series: Dodgers beat Rangers

    I have picked the Dodgers 3 years in a row now (or maybe 4) and obviously have not been correct. Some of these picks have been with the heart and some based on the payroll. But the reality is that this Dodgers side is nothing like those big payroll Yankees sides in the late-90s and early-2000s (a core group of homegrown players who wanted to win and had skills that were blended with the best free agents).

    #2
    Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)



    It's the best chance of my lifetime.

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      #3
      Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

      Mmmmm, ERA...

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        #4
        Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

        Haven't you picked the Rays in the AL for the past few years, danielmak? Maybe this will be their year now that you've picked them last!

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          #5
          Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

          Incandenza wrote: Haven't you picked the Rays in the AL for the past few years, danielmak? Maybe this will be their year now that you've picked them last!
          I did pick them a couple years ago (maybe 2 years in a row). Last year I had the Dodgers beating the Tigers.

          I will say this, I watch way too much sports and need to take up some other hobbies. But for all that I watch, I can't pick winners to save my life. In football I picked Netherlands to win WC 2010, Italy to win Euro 2012, and Argentina to win WC 2014 so I've got second place covered. If you want to place a bet now for Euro 2016 I'm going with France to beat Belgium in the final so you should bet on France to finish 2nd.

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            #6
            Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

            I've just discovered what a Cool-A-Coo is, and that only can only get them at Dodger games.

            In true SF style, I've decided that it's just a jealous Angeleno ripoff on an It's It.

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              #7
              Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

              When Fox bought the Dodgers, they stopped selling them in the stadium. Stupid McCourt wasn't smart enough to bring them back. Guggenheim bringing the Cool-A-Coos back was as popular a decision to Dodger fans as any expensive roster move.

              You can get It's Its in grocery stores here, but not Cool-A-Coos.

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                #8
                Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                It hasn't been brought up yet, but the Adam & Drake LaRoche/Chisox situation is getting worse:

                http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25521949/sale-calls-williams-a-bold-faced-liar-hangs-laroche-jerseys-in-clubhouse

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                  #9
                  Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                  Incandenza wrote: It hasn't been brought up yet, but the Adam & Drake LaRoche/Chisox situation is getting worse:

                  http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25521949/sale-calls-williams-a-bold-faced-liar-hangs-laroche-jerseys-in-clubhouse
                  This is a fascinating story I think. But I have to wonder how this kid has so much time to be hanging out with the team. Is he being home schooled? And if so, how is that happening when he's at the baseball field all day?

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                    #10
                    Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                    I was wondering that as well. Apparently LaRoche wanted to take him there every day. That seems a bit much.

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                      #11
                      Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                      I had the Michael Kay show going on YES the other day and Kay had a good pint: there's now way that Kenny Williams just decided to make the change. Willimas was either pressured from above (Reinsdorf) or pressured from below (players and/or coaches). Apparently the kid was around all the time: all year during spring training last year and all home games. I don't know if he traveled as well. And I guess the same was true when LaRoche was with the Nats. I have no idea why a team would agree to this and if I was a player I wouldn't want a kid hanging around the locker room, having to edit the stuff I wanted to say or do. Kudos to LaRoche for wanting to be around his kid, although I don't know what kind of parent treats that as a form of home schooling and what it says to his daughter that he hangs out with the son so much but not the daughter (a bit sexist in my opinion--but I don't know the age of his daughter).

                      Of course, had LaRoche actually hit then maybe this wouldn't be an issue but a bopper who hits .215 with 40something RBI is not someone you're going to work to keep around. The problem is that the White Sox continue to sign people to play out of position and he is the second guy in a row who had been playing the outfield but was signed to be a DH having not done that (Dunn being the previous bad signing). The Sox need to follow the new approach to DHs and rotate guys to give them a day off from the field.

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                        #12
                        Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                        All of that seems right. But apparently letting his kid hanging around was in his contract or at least agreed upon. I think I saw that somewhere.

                        I'm visiting my brothers and his family in Florida. So we tried to go to the Pirates-Twins Spring training game today in Bradenton but it was rained out. So tomorrow we're going to try Clearwater - Phillies vs Astros.

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                          #13
                          Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                          Either we have been posting on different threads, or you're back from a hiatus Reed. Which is it?

                          There wasn't a contractual agreement but apparently there was a verbal agreement, which is why he was so pissed (and apparently why Chris Sale called Williams a liar in the locker room on Thursday or Friday).

                          It's been since 2000 or 2001 since I was last at that Clearwater stadium to see a Single A Philies game but it was an old stadium with charm. I think they've since re-done it.

                          My favorite was the St. Pete Rays but they have since relocated spring training and Single A operations to Orlando. The Yankees Stadium in Tampa is very nice as well.

                          I heard Girardi interviewed during the Yankees game on YES on Friday and he was complaining about the brutal drives in Florida, hoping that a few more teams could move in that direction. It does seem like the Cactus League is much better for the players although I would take Florida over Arizona if I had the choice (not that either is ideal for year round living).

                          EDIT: I watched a bit of the Red Sox-Cardinals (or Cardinals-Red Sox) spring training game on ESPN earlier today and they said that the kid was being home schooled. Still, he needs to be around other kids at some point, which isn't going to happen if all of his time is spent with his dad. The whole thing just seems too weird to me.

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                            #14
                            Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                            Apparently it is fifteen years since this happened (I didn't actually know it happened so went and found a gif).

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                              #15
                              Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                              Fifteen years ago yesterday.

                              At the time, some of the more hysterical animal rights types called for Johnson. to be prosecuted.

                              Cespedes ain't goin' to do no bendin' down in Spring Training

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                                #16
                                Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                                I think that reaction to Johnson was exacerbated because he seemed to be laughing about it, if I recall correctly.

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                                  #17
                                  Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                                  The quotes I read have Randy Johnson basically saying that he didn't find it very funny at all. (A lot of other players did.)

                                  It's just astonishingly weird though. Even watching it repeatedly, it just seems so impossible.

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                                    #18
                                    Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                                    We have hit an ungodly amount of home runs in the past 4 days, and look likely to be starting a Rule V pick in left field.

                                    Inca-fantasy this year?

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                                      #19
                                      Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                                      My favorite was the St. Pete Rays but they have since relocated spring training and Single A operations to Orlando. The Yankees Stadium in Tampa is very nice as well.
                                      The Rays are down in Port Charlotte now and their High A affiliate in the FSL are the Stone Crabs.

                                      Everyone is abandoning central Florida for ST. The Braves are planning to leave Disney for somewhere closer to Tampa/St Pete and the Astros are moving from Kissimmee to down by Palm Beach where the Cards and Marlins are. I think the Nats might be going that direction too. They're kind of all alone in northeast Florida.

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                                        #20
                                        Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                                        jefe wrote: We have hit an ungodly amount of home runs in the past 4 days, and look likely to be starting a Rule V pick in left field.

                                        Inca-fantasy this year?
                                        Sorry, I realized last year that I just wasn't interested in fantasy baseball towards the end of the season, and I haven't been excited by the thought of starting it up again this year.

                                        If anyone would like to become the OTF Beisbol commish, I can start it up and hand the reigns over.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                                          Reed John wrote:
                                          My favorite was the St. Pete Rays but they have since relocated spring training and Single A operations to Orlando. The Yankees Stadium in Tampa is very nice as well.
                                          The Rays are down in Port Charlotte now and their High A affiliate in the FSL are the Stone Crabs.

                                          Everyone is abandoning central Florida for ST. The Braves are planning to leave Disney for somewhere closer to Tampa/St Pete and the Astros are moving from Kissimmee to down by Palm Beach where the Cards and Marlins are. I think the Nats might be going that direction too. They're kind of all alone in northeast Florida.
                                          Ah, I didn't know that. Once I moved from Florida in 2001 I lost track of most teams. Like I wrote above, that St. Pete stadium is really great, although it looks like the stadium is now used for NASL. You can see from this photo, though, why sitting on the 1st base side was always a real treat:
                                          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Lang_Stadium#/media/File:Rowdies_Soccer_Config_2015.jpg

                                          The stadium is near a bunch of old people's homes so there was always a collection of seniors dozing during the games, which had its own inter-generational charm.

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                                            #22
                                            Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                                            Yeah, that's very close to my brother's house. Al Lang Stadium is now the Rowdies stadium and they've tried to make it make it more soccer-friendly.

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                                              #23
                                              Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                                              Ken Burns is doing a new two-part series on Jackie Robinson starting 11 April.

                                              It feels a little bit redundant given his extensive coverage in Baseball, but I'm sure we'll learn many new things about the man. And how many more chances do we have to hear Rachel Robinson speak anyway?

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                                                #24
                                                Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                                                I think it's going to focus on their relationship.

                                                I've come to realize that I really love baseball. I don't love many things but this is one. It's so odd because I didn't like it at all from about 1995-2005, and even when I was playing it as a kid - perhaps especially when I was playing it as a kid - I didn't like it as much as I do now. Life is funny that way.

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                                                  #25
                                                  Dudes Dig the Low ERA (MLB 2016)

                                                  Entertaining feature from the NY Times interviewing people in that photo of fans' reactions to Hosmer sliding in to home in the World Series. I had no idea that George Brett was in there!

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