Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

[Janik]

"Wimbledon hates Rafa"

Well, no, they don't, they love him. But my word he has a tough looking opening to the tournament.

R1 vs Klizan
R2 possibly vs Rosol
R3 possibly vs Karlovic

Not fun when trying to adapt to the surface.

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Djokovic can't be happy either

Potentially;
R4 vs Tsonga
QF vs Berdych
SF vs Murray

Murray starts vs Goffin. Should be entertaining.

[ad hoc]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Didn't Goffin just die? That sounds fairly easy, frankly (though I fully expect Murray to throw away the 3rd set, somehow)

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Big four pathways

Djokovic
Golubev
Stepanek/Cuevas
Pospisil
Youzhny/Tsonga
Gulbis/Verdasco/Cilic/Berdych
Murray

Murray
Goffin
Andujar/Rola
Bautista Agut
Anderson/Fognini
Dimitrov/Dolgopolov/Seppi/Ferrer
Djokovic

Federer
Lorenzi
Muller/Benneteau
Granollers (Mahut)
Janowicz/Robredo
Wawrinka/Tursunov/Lopez/Isner
Nadal

Nadal
Klizan
Paire/Rosol
Karlovic
Gasquet/Monfils
Raonic/Garcia-Lopez/Kohlschreiber/Nishikori
Federer

Murray and Federer pretty content. Djokovic less so, Nadal looking at that and saying 'Holy Moly'.

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Seeing as there was confusion last time, lets keep the British no-marks on the same thread as the big boys and girls.

Draws are as follows.

Men;
James Ward vs Mikhail Youzhny [17]
Dan Cox vs Jeremy Chardy
Kyle Edmund vs Andreas Haider-Maurer
(Aljaz Bedene* vs Kevin Anderson [20])
Dan Evans vs Andrey Kuznetsov
Dan Smethurst vs John Isner [9]
* - Bedene would appear to have lucky losered his way in.

Women;
Heather Watson vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Sam Murray vs Maria Sharapova [5]
Tara Moore vs Vera Zvonereva
Jo Konta vs Shuai Peng
Naomi Broady vs Timea Babos

Good chances for Evans and Watson. Decent ones for Edmund, Cox, Konta and Broady. Small for Ward, Bedene and Moore. Not a cat in hells for Smethurst and S.Murray.

[KGR]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Not been following this all as much as some, hence the following question: Is Laura Robson still suffering from the wrist injury that she had at the start of the year? Notice she is not in the draw mentioned above.

[Seven Saxon Kings]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

I'm not sure I've ever seen Smethurst. What's his serve like? If Isner needs 69 cracks to break Mahut's serve on grass it can't be beyond possibility that Smethurst could put a few streaks of six together and get to a few tie-breaks.

Murray has to be looking at that draw as pretty much a bye to the semi-final. Which he probably needs to avoid falling to 9th in the world, and his worst ranking since before he broke through as a star.

[Seven Saxon Kings]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Kryvbas Gripper Rih wrote: Not been following this all as much as some, hence the following question: Is Laura Robson still suffering from the wrist injury that she had at the start of the year? Notice she is not in the draw mentioned above.

Yep - out of not just Wimbledon but the US Open too. She still had a huge cast on her wrist when being interviewed at Queen's.

[Seven Saxon Kings]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

To be fair Rafa has a tough first couple of rounds but then it isn't so bad and he's surely rather be with Federer than Murray or Djokovic. Karlovic's grass court record is suprisingly poor and I wouldn't be that surprised if he had a different R3 opponent. I don't think Gasquet or Monfils should hold too much fear and then he probably has the easiest looking spread of potential QF opponents.

[Gerontophile]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Janik: you missed the part where Murray beats Djokovic in the semi-final.

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Seven Samba Kings wrote: Karlovic's grass court record is suprisingly poor and I wouldn't be that surprised if he had a different R3 opponent.

That assumes Rafa will be in R3 himself. He hasn't won back-to-back matches on a grass court since 2011. Entirely fitness based, but I'm not really seeing how his knees will cope better with the adjusment this time compared to 2012 and 2013 when he was playing half-crippled.

The group of players who have beaten him in that time is notable by being rather more proasic than is usually the case.
Kohlschreiber
Rosol
Darcis
Brown

As for players he has beaten in that time, the complete list is;
Lacko
Belluci

[Gerontophile]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Is Brown the German who beat Nadal (this week?)

[Seven Saxon Kings]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Yep - though he was Jamaican until he fell out with their tennis federation.

[Gerontophile]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

He is a very dangerous 'thunderer'. Like the Polish geezer last year. Except. we kkknow who he is now.

[Southport Zeb]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

I saw Tara Moore play in the final at Liverpool today. She lost in straight sets to fifteen year old Jodie Burrage, which I don't think is ideal preparation for Wimbledon. Burrage looked nervous at first but won eight games in a row at one stage.

The big draw for Liverpool this year was current Wimbledon champion Marion Bartoli. She retired from her match against Burrage yesterday, having lost the first set, but returned today for a mixed doubles match alongside Barry Cowan. She put on a decent performance but could only serve underarm. At the end of the match there was a parade of models showing off shoes that Bartoli has designed. This appeared to distract Greg Rusedski and Jan-Michael Gambill as they knocked up before their match.

Other than Moore, the only player involved today who will be in the main singles draw next week was American Michael Russell, who will consider that he has a chance against Julian Reister. He won today against Sebastian Jackson, who is ranked fourth amongst British over 40s. This puts him in the men's final tomorrow against Andrey Rublev of Russia, who won the boys singles at Roland Garros last weekend.

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

The Football? Is that still going on?

Time for the real summer sport to start - the consumption of eight stupidly overpriced strawberries with a dash over overly sweet cream, served with a glass of Pimms. If there is time, we might even watching a couple of athletic slavic girls biff some fuzzy yellow balls about.

Anyway, the traditional opening gambit of the nominal R3 draws.

Gentleman's Singles

Novak Djokovic Srb [1] vs Vasek Pospisil Can [31]
Mikahil Youzhny Rus [17] vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Fra [14]
Ernests Gulbis Lat [12] vs Fernando Verdasco Esp [18]
Marin Cilic Cro [26] vs Tomas Berdych Cro [6]

Andy Murray GBr [3] vs Roberto Bautista Agut Esp [27]
Kevin Anderson RSA [20] vs Fabio Fognini Ita [16]
Grigor Dimitrov Bul [11] vs Alexandr Dolgopolov Ukr [21]
Andreas Seppi Ita [25] vs David Ferrer Esp [7]

Stan Wawrinka Sui [5] vs Dmitry Tursunov Rus [32]
Feliciano Lopez Esp [19] vs John Isner USA [9]
Jerzy Janowicz Pol [15] vs Tommy Robredo Esp [23]
Marcel Granollers Esp [30] vs Roger Federer Sui [4]

Milos Raonic Can [8] vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez Esp [28]
Philipp Kohlschreiber Ger [22] vs Kei Nishikori Jpn [10]
Richard Gasquet Fra [13] vs Gael Monfils Fra [24]
Ivo Karlovic Cro [29] vs Rafael Nadal Esp [2]

Ladies Singles

Serena Williams USA [1] vs Alize Cornet Fra [25]
Andrea Petkovic Ger [20] vs Eugenie Bouchard Can [13]
Angelique Kerber Ger [9] vs Kirsten Flipkens Bel [24]
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Rus [26] vs Maria Sharapova Rus [5]

Simona Halep Rou [3] vs Sorana Cirstea Rou [29]
Roberta Vinci Ita [21] vs Carla Suarez Navarro Esp [15]
Ana Ivanovic Srb [11] vs Sabine Lisicki Ger [19]
Klara Koukalova Cze [31] vs Jelena Jankovic Srb [7]

Victoria Azarenka Blr [8] vs [strike]Gabrine Muguruza Esp [27][/strike] Coco Vandeweghe USA
Lucie Safarova Cze [23] vs Dominika Cibulkova Slo [10]
Sara Errani Ita [14] vs Ekaterina Makarova Rus [22]
Svetlana Kuznetsova Rus [28] vs Agnieszka Radwanksa Pol [4]

Petra Kvitova Cze [6] vs Venus Williams USA [30]
Sloane Stephens USA [18] vs Flavia Pennetta Ita [12]
Caroline Woznaicki Den [16] vs Samantha Stosur Aus [32]
Elena Vesnina Rus [32] vs Na Li Chn [2]

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

What thinketh thy all? Both look about the most open for years.

Amongst the Men Djokovic has been suffering from the yips, Nadal's fitness on grass is highly dubious, Murray has been in patchy form through the year and will be under enormous pressure (albeit a different enormous pressure from last year), Federer hasn't won a slam for ages as he keeps on ageing (obviously) and keeps on getting further away and Wawrinka has never really done anything much on grass (he has only won one match at Wimbledon since 2009 and hasn't missed a year in the meantime), I think because he needs a slightly higher and more predictable bounce to play his shots.

Over to the Women, and Serena is also stuttering this year; when she wins she looks like she is playing a different game to everyone else but I don't think the gap on her good days is as representative as it appears. She has made it to the SFs of just two of the last six majors, although she did convert both of those into the titles. Li has never been beyond the QFs at Wimbledon and failed to make the second week in 4 of her last six tries - like Wawrinka I think the surface undermines the way she plays. Halep has limited form and experience on the surface and also has a game not brilliantly suited to it. Radwanska, on the other hand, is massively experienced on grass and totally suited to it, but just lacks power when it comes to the very latter stages. Finally Sharapova has been playing very well (she currently tops the race standings), but has struggled at Wimbledon in recent attempts with three R2 and three R4 exits in her last seven tries. The other was a runner-up spot, so like Serena the time to get her is early.

Will stick my thoughts on possible winners and dark horses up tomorrow lunchtime, leaving a space for other voices first.

[Satchmo Distel]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Murray making the SF at the French suggests he's in good shape and I think he can retain his crown. The women's can certainly be wide open, as Bartoli proved, but it's always Serena's to lose because her power makes her unbeatable on grass when she clicks.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Is Steve Darcis not in the draw? You'd have thought they'd have wild-carded him purely on sentiment after his first-round win over Rafa last year, which was one of the stories of the tournament.

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Mens

Across the last ten Finals of the Championships (who can also throw the Olympic games in), only 6 Men have contested a Final at Wimbledon. The big four, Andy Roddick and Tomas Berdych. In recent years there has been one player who has looked like breaking that stranglehold, Juan Martin Del Potro, but he is injured again.

As such, last years finalists, Djokovic and Murray, will almost certainly go close. Murray has a very decent chance of retaining his title, his artistry about the court is just made for grass. As noted above, his run to the Semis in Paris, as good as he has ever achieved, does give strength to the idea that it is all coming back to him (no pun intended). Losing early at Queens wasn't in the script, but he will be ready and doesn't need the time to adjust to grass of some others. As for Djoker, he must be getting a little desperate to win another Slam after a string of defeats in Semis and Finals. It seems stubbornness that is keeping him with Becker, that really hasn't worked out so far; if it fails at Wimbledon as well, Becker's best venue, then surely it is time for the partnership to end.

Very hard to judge Nadal because the main question is over his knees rather than his Tennis. It is never been made entirely clear if the problem is the surface change, or simply the lack of time to heal after the French Open (the man himself may not be sure). Probably a combination of the both. If it turns out he is fit, then as a two-time former Champion and three-time former runner-up he becomes a very obvious candidate for more.

As for Federer, the way he played in Australia suggests he will be serving-and-volleying much more this championship than in previous ones. His play down under looked very impressive, as he did at times in the early going in Paris. The light is flickering though, and was put out unusually early in France by Gulbis. For one thing, he just doesn't hover up titles any more. He won just his second tournament of the year in Halle two weeks ago. At least that is better than 2013 when Halle was all he won. His last Masters Series win was 23 months ago, and he has gone out prior to the Quarters of three of the last four majors.

Amongst the next batch, Wawrinka has no form on grass and Ferrer makes the best of himself as usual but just doesn't have enough to move beyond a respectable showing. Raonic should have done better previously (R2 in his three previous appearances), but his dander is up and he could explode. He plays fairly similarly to Berdych, who has had previous success on grass and could easily have more.

Outside the top 8, Dimitrov looks likely to be the most comfortable of the leading players in the coming generation on grass. Come 2020 he ought to be the favourite for the title, and could start breaking through to that this time. Gasquet, Tsonga and Janowicz are all recent Semi-Finalists but are having seasons ranging from poor to appalling. Youzhny has been consistent at Wimbledon without ever really breaking through.

So, where do I go? For a somewhat left-field choice - the seven time former Champion. Federer to have a Samprasian last hurrah.

Dark horse - Feliciano Lopez. Has had an excellent build up, is a very useful grass court player and has a decent draw segment (of the other seeds in with him, Wawrinka has one win in four years at SW19, Tursunov one win in five, Isner three wins ever). Biggest challenge in getting to the QFs may well be Alejandro Falla in R2.

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Womens

The Women's Singles in recent years has been one for course and distance specialists. Petra Kvitova is the only player to have been in the quarter-finals in all of the last four years, and Sabine Lisicki the only one to have made that stage three times from four. If one did a very crude ranking system based on results since 2010 and awarding 10 points for being champion, 6 for runner-up, 3 for SFs and 1 for QFs, we would come up with the following top five;

1 - Serena
2 - Kvitova
3 - Bartoli
4 - Lisicki
5 - A.Radwanska

A very different list from other events or the actual rankings.

It is always difficult to look beyond Serena, if she plays to her best she wins. But that was also true on a number of other surfaces and she has stumbled repeatedly recently. I repeat my feeling that she is nowhere near as far ahead of the pack as it can sometimes appear. I have a inkling she might get a message of "Retire, grandma" on Monday week...

Li has been up-and-down both in terms of play and by the sounds of it inside her head since the Aussie Open win. If she is feeling good she could be a threat but there is nothing that particularly suggests she is. Halep is a coming force and never self-belief must be off the scale; she has won a title on grass before so an early elimination would be an extreme shock but Lisicki lurks in her part of the draw, as does the unseeded but highly dangerous Madison Keys. I don't see much to hamper Aga Radwanska making the latter stages. Her R4 could be tricky in either Makarova or Pironkova but she should be able to handle it.

In the next batch, Sharapova is the player of the year so far but Serena owns her on all surfaces and doubly so on grass. It is a horrible match-up from Maria's point of view as her serve comes under constant pressure anyway, which she usually counters by returning hard so threatening her opponent. You can't do that against Serena on a grass court. Maria's only way to go deep is if someone upsets Serena early. Kvitova has a two potentially tricky matches in R2 vs Barthel and especially in R3 vs Venus, but if she gets through those (and is and stays healthy for once) she could be very dangerous. Grass is to quick a surface for Jankovic to seriously challenge and Azarenka is probably too early in her comeback to be a major threat; her opening match against veteran former Semi-Finalist Mirjana Lucic-Baroni is on court 1 as a potential upset.

There are significant players seeded outside the top eight, or in Keys case not seeded at all. Angie Kerber is a former Semi-Finalist and has the quick hands, balance on the court and mental strength to play successfully on grass. Domi Cibulkova is a handful on anything. Grass suits Sloane Stephens power game and Slams are where she comes alive. She has something to prove after Keys won Eastbourne. Lisicki is wildly under-seeded at #19; she is probably the favourite to reach the Semi in her draw segment. Venus is also much more than the 30th best player in the Women’s draw, but she is really into the veteran years now.

I've left one player out of that last paragraph, Eugenie Bouchard. Six women have one Slam SF appearance in 2014. Only Genie has two. She has the skills, the power and the litheness of Tennis brain to play on grass. Hell, I reckon it is her best surface; she won the Girls Doubles in 2011 and defended her crown in 2012 and added the Girls Singles for good measure. She has been good so far, and that was on surfaces less well suited. I think she will be unstoppable on grass. The comparison I made of her to Navratilova during the French was done for a reason. She is going to win this thing time and again.

No dark horse, as my pick for the title would be considered as that.

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Forgot to mention that we will get to see Bouchard's credentials very early. She has drawn Dani Hantuchova in round 1. Given that Bartoli isn't playing so they have a free choice of Women's match to put on Centre tomorrow, it has to be this one. Surely...

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Opening Brit action is Jo Konta. Court 12 vs Peng. Time to get streaming.

[Janik]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Sam Stosur out before anyone has set foot on Centre Court. Even by her standards on grass, and acknowledging that she had a tough draw in Wickmayer, that is a bit poor.

[PDD2]

Wimbledon 2014 - 2011 revisited

Sloane Stephens out as well.

Jo Konta 1 set all, but has been broken in the 1st game of the 3rd set.