Strong Constitution - Cheltenham 2023

[jwdd27]

Starts tomorrow.
This year more than ever the sport of jump racing has made Cheltenham the absolute focus (and rightly so IMO), while the BHA have chaotically mismanaged everything (whips, gambling, schedule, prize money) in an apparent effort to eradicate their own sport.

Anyway, I'll do some previews and tips, as much for my benefit as anyone else. These four days are certainly the focus of my year and tension is high, even though I'm not gambling a great amount of money, I've got less than £100 down so far.

The course has had plenty of rain and should start off soft, which most horses prefer, and the rest of the week is "national hunt weather", i.e. wet, cold and windy.

[steveeeeeeeee]

I've got my alarm clock set for 4am tomorrow, let's see if I can make it.

Apologies for asking this, I appreciate I could find out myself, but what free bets/offers are available for Cheltenham this year. I saw Paddy Power are doing a free bet each day. I was given £5 by Coral last week. Are Sky Bet still doing a free bet for the first race each day?

Other than that, I will deposit £20 to whoever is giving the best free bet deals during the festival, which is usually Sky Bet. I like their app the best too.

[The Mighty Trin]

It'll be my first visit to Cheltenham on Friday and I'm very much looking forward to it. Certainly better than being in the office, although so are most things. As it's also St Patrick's Day I expect it to be a heavy day for many of the punters.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Don't know what it's like in Gloucestershire but it's fucking pissing down in Lancashire and has been all day. If it's like this there (or this moves south) tomorrow could get cancelled, as conditions move from "soft" to "that field in War Horse".

[Simon G]

Been off and on rain all day. Was hammering down between 4 and 5, but otherwise just drizzly.

It's weeks like this that I'm glad I work from home these days. Race week is a nightmare for traffic all over Cheltenham, Gloucester and Tewkesbury.

[jwdd27]

I've got my alarm clock set for 4am tomorrow, let's see if I can make it.

Apologies for asking this, I appreciate I could find out myself, but what free bets/offers are available for Cheltenham this year. I saw Paddy Power are doing a free bet each day. I was given £5 by Coral last week. Are Sky Bet still doing a free bet for the first race each day?

Other than that, I will deposit £20 to whoever is giving the best free bet deals during the festival, which is usually Sky Bet. I like their app the best too.

They're all much of a muchness, if you like Skybet's app the go for them, Paddy's offer seems the best but I can't recommend them (locked me out and then closed my account). I'm at the stage where I already have/had an account with them all so can't take advantage, plus nowadays the verifications are a nightmare (photo of you holding your passport etc).

William Hill is doing Constitution Hill for evs from 1/3, max £10, which is a free £10 if you fancy it, and paid in cash rather than free bets.

We've settled into Cheltenham Tuesday every three years, so 2025 is our next visit.

[jwdd27]

Cheltenham Day one - Champions Day

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle
Facile Vega blotted his copybook spectacularly at Leopardstown last month, giing a suicidal pace with High Definition and running out of gas quickly to come last of 5. He was shifted from was favourite out to 5/1, but since rightfully regained favouritism at attractive odds.
Main challengers are the dark grey Marine Nationale, lovely horse but from an obscure Irish trainer and with a conditional jockey, who is excellent but inexperienced in this sort of environment, and the light grey Il Etait Temps, who took advantage of Facile Vega's slip in Dublin but was thrashed by the same horse at Christmas. He also wears a hood which makes him look very dashing but headgear is historically a negative at this grade.
At longer odds Tahmuras leads the British challenge, High Definition is the quickest horse as he showed Facile, but the jumping isn't quite there yet, as he also showed when unseating. Doctor Bravo is Gordon Elliott's only runner and is 20/1, while Inthepocket was surprisingly rerouted here at the last minute and is a good horse, although unlikely to be good enough.
Win: Facile Vega E/W chances: High Definition, Doctor Bravo

2.10 Arkle Chase
It's Jonbon v El Fabiolo.
Jonbon's only defeat was to Constitution Hill at last year's Supreme, but he seems to be a horse that people find hard to love, always finding a reason to crab him (small field, race ran to suit, other horses rubbish).
El Fabiolo meanwhile is flavour of the month. He won the Irish Arkle impressively, and has surpassed Jonbon for favouritism, after the latter very briefly struggled to overcome an average opponent in a match race (he still won on the bridle by 5 lengths). Jonbon is a lovely animal with good speed whose jumping has been impeccable, whereas El Fab can clatter a fence and if you do that in the wrong place at Cheltenham you're done. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, and I may have him in a few multiples, but he needs another career best if Jonbon is on form. The other horses will also run.
WIN: Jonbon e/w: Saint Roi

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase
As with all the handicaps, you can drop a pin and have as a good chance as studying form, but previous form at the track and in the race has Historically been a plus, so Oscar Elite, 3rd last year and trained for this, gets my vote ahead of Nassalam, in the hope that the favourite and last year's jwdd27-tipped winner Corach Rambler is saving himself for the Grand National (I've got him at 20s for that race).
The Irish "never" win this race, but it's worth keeping an eye on Fastorslow, especially with 5 and 6 places on offer.
Winner Oscar Elite E/W chances: Nassalam, Fastorslow

3.30 Champion Hurdle
Constitution Hill wins, easily. He's the best we've seen for many years and could be the best ever. It would be a mild disappointment if he doesn't win by over 10 lengths. 1/3 is actually decent odds.
State Man would be a worthy short priced fav in other years, but is relying on a mishap/miracle to get anywhere near the winner. Vauban should head I Like To Move It for 3rd to pick up some easy e/w money.
Win: Constitution Hill e/w: Vauban

[jwdd27]

4.10 Mares Hurdle
Traditionally the mares' races have been low quality fare, which have been tolerated for the good work they do for bloodstock.
But that's changed, and this ias a great race - the top class defending champion Marie's Rock and Love Envoi are joined by the waning legend Honeysuckle and Epatante, who like the wonder mare is dodging Constitution Hill in the previous race. And then you have Brandy Love, hugely talented but "enigmatic" (unreliable, difficult) and Echoes in Rain, who usually finds one or two too good. I'd love it if Homeysuckle won, but she is regressing and can't be backed. Marie's Rock is worthy favourite, but Love Envoi is also class and also won at the festival last year and Epatante is extremely high class and had been somewhat disrespected in the betting.
Win: Love Envoi e/w Epatante

4.50 Boodles Juvenile Handicap
For 4 year olds who are not quite up to scratch for Friday's Triumph Hurdle.
As they've only raced a few times what form there is can be unreliable, so you can take your pick, the favourite Tekao has every chance, but I'll play each way on 3 at double figures.
E/W: Morning Soldier, Punta del Este, Sundial

5.30 National Hunt Chase
One of the worst races of the festival, formerly a 4 mile slog for slow horses, now a 3 m 6f slog for the same. Gaillard Du Mesnil is evs fav, by far the best horse, and will probably win, but anything can happen, so worth a couple as e/w reserves
Win: Gaillard du Mesnil e/w: Minella Crooner, Tenzing

Good luck

[Third rate Leszno]

I'm out of the country most of the week and geoblocked on my B365 account so I did a small handful of antepost bets and will watch the races when I get home. Jonbon and Bad (in the 4:50) are my two for tomorrow.

[Simon G]

I only bet on racing at Cheltenham, and I only bet tiny bets, so apropos of nothing, here's my selections today.

£2 cash back offer from Sky on the first race: Facile Vega 9/4

25p e/w accumulator:
14:10 - Jonbon - 13/8
14:50 - Into Overdrive - 7/1
16:10 - Honeysuckle - 5/2
16:50 - Metamorpheus - 20/1

[E10 Rifle]

Constitution Hill pissed it, as expected (I had a face-saving eachway on State Man), followed by a stunning race and performance from Rachael Blackmore and Honeysuckle in the Mares' Hurdle, putting me slightly up.

[slackster]

I was tempted to have a straight forecast punt on the 1-2 finishers in the Champ Hurdle, but only last minute as I turned the telly on to watch the race, and couldn’t remember my online bookie details as it’s been a year since I had a bet. Oh well, it wouldn’t exactly have been a bumper payout on a 10 quid stake anyway.

[jwdd27]

Well, that was pretty special. Could have done without Love Envoi getting outstayed by Honeysuckle, but it made for some memorable and emotional scenes.
Constitution Hill was spectacularly good. Bet 365 joined the "boost to evs" party so I fleeced them for £10 as well.

And it turned out I had the reverse forecast in the first race, a bet I can't even recall placing, which is typical of Cheltenham Tuesday. Facile Vega and Jonbon have nixed most of my antepost multiples, but I recouped a fair bit lumping on Gaillard in the last.

Lovely stuff.

[jwdd27]

Day 2

1.30 Ballymore Novices Hurdle
For those novices not quite fast or classy enough for the Supreme, but who are still a cut above the sloggers in the 3 mile potato race. Impaire et Passe is the hot Irish raider and is now fav ahead of Paul Nicholls' leading English hope Hermes Allen. Rightly so, Hermes won the Challow Hurdle impressively, but this is Cheltenham and the English horses are rubbish compared to the Irish. Barry Connell and Mikey O'Sullivan proved they weren't out of their depth in the Supreme yesterday, and their Good Land is probably the one to chase the fav home.
Winner: Impaire et Passe E/W: Good Land

2.10 Brown Advisory Novices Chase
The 3m chase formerly known as the RSA. Gerri Colombe is the short fav and is fairly solid, unbeaten, including an impressive previous British raid. Main damger could be Sir Gerhard, previously a Mullins good thing but has had problems in training this year and is now something of an unknown quantity. Thyme Hill is best of British, an endearing mix of supremely talented but supremely unreliable, I'd hope it's a going day.
Winner: Gerri Colombe e/w: Thyme Hill

2.50 Coral Cup
Everyone's new favourite Irish pundit Johnny Dineen says "not even God himself has a bet in the Coral Cup", which sums it up pretty well. My selections are Gordon Elliott's game little grey Fils d'Or, and HMS Seahorse who is also likeable. Loads of extra places, pick any two or three and you've got a chance
E/w: Fils d'Or, HMS Seahorse

3.30 Champion Chase
Used to be known as the Queen Mother, and I think it still is, but as she's been dead 20 years it seems she's fading in to the background, which is good.
It's basically Edwardstone (GB) v Enurgumene (IRE). The latter is defending champion but is very closely matched with Edwardstone. They met here in the Clarence House, rearranged from Cheltenham, and were so busy marking each other that they let Editeur de Gite steal the race from them, Edwardstone just failing to catch the winner as Enurgumene stumbled at the last. I prefer Enurgumene as he has slightly more charisma and obvious raw talent than the accomplished but unsexy Edwardstone. Editeur de Gite reopposes, but I fancy Greaneteen to run a big race at meaty odds, he seems to alternate between very good and very bad runs, and he shit the bed last time. He'll need one of the principals to fail, but worth a shot.
Winner: Enurgumene e/w: Greaneteen

[jwdd27]

4.10 Glenfarclas Cross Country
Always used to be a cue to go the bar, take the dog out or generally go out and do something less boring than watching a bunch of slow horses navigate a tiresome and confusing double figure of eight course. Tiger Roll changed all that, but he's done so it reverts to type. Delta Work, who pissed on Tiger's chips last year, is longstanding warm fav and will win, with next year's winner Galvin following him home for the same O'Leary/Elliott connections. Should be 4 places so take your pick for one you think will trail home after the front two, I-'ve gone for Diesel d'Alliers who is experienced at this nonsense.
Winner: Delta Work e/e Diesel d'Alliers

4.50 Grand Annual
With the Ultima as one of the better handicap chases and pretty much everything has a chance. Thyme White gets my vote because I'd also gone for Thyme Hill and the racing gods like a theme, plus Epson Du Houx because I always back it and its recent form suggests its handicap mark was being protected.
E/w: Thyme White, Epson du Houx

5.30 ChampIon Bumper
The flat race that shohldn't be here and certainly shouldn't be a Grade 1.
Willie Mullins has 14 of the runners in this, and of course he will win it, probably with is first string It's for Me, but possibly with the 5th or 6th string Chapeau de Soleil. I like a French name I can easily translate. Better Days Ahead for Elliott is one who could possibly spoil the Mullins fest, ahead of the fav (Dream to Share) who I don't fancy (the same unfashionable stable/inexperienced jockey angle that put me off the Supreme winner Marine Nationale)
Winner: It's For Me e/w: Chapeau de Soleil, Better Days Ahead

[Simon G]

My bits and pieces:

£2 cash back offer from Sky on the first race: Impaire Et Passe - 7/4

25p e/w accumulators:
14:10 - Thyme Hill - 17/2
14:50 - Fil Dor - 12/1
15:30 - Energumene - 13/8
16:10 - Delta Work - 5/4
16:50 - Elixir Du Nutz - 12/1

13:30 - Good Land - 4/1
14:10 - Gerri Colombe - 11/8
15:30 - Edwardstone - 6/4
16:50 - Epson Du Houx - 12/1
17:30 - It's for Me - 11/2

[jwdd27]

A decent second day with Delta Work (narrowly) and Enurgumene (emphatically) following on from Impaire et Passe in the opener. It could have been even better had Gerri Colombe not failed by a neck to overcome The Real Whacker.

Day 3

1.30 Turners Novices Chase
Mighty Potter is a strong favourite, and is head and shoulders above the rest on form so should piss in. The slight doubts that are keeping him hovering around evens rather than long odds on are his previous Cheltenham performance, a complete no show in last year's Supreme, and his occasional jumping mistakes, which he has got away with against lesser opponents bit might not tomorrow. Neither are enough to dissuade me, Davy Russell's made a swift return from retirement after Jack Kennedy's leg break, almost certainly so he could get another Cheltenham winner on this one. Of the opposition, Appreciate It has back class and winning festival experience, while Henderson's Balco Coastal is progressive and is good e/w value at 10/1.
Winner: Mighty Potter e/w: Balco Coastal

2.10 Pertemps Network Final
Another big field take your pick handicap. Qualification has been somewhat tightened this year (4th or better in a qualifier rather than 6th) so in theory their handicap marks should be more accurate, but nah. My darts are Hector Javilex for the talented Pinchin/Longsdon team, and An Tailliur for the Jonjo O'Neills. But the winner will of course be an Irish one that I have never heard of and didn't even see listed.
E/w Hector Javilex; An Tailliur

2.50 Ryanair Chase
This one is all about the resurgent Shishkin. Since beating Enurgumene at Ascot last year he had seemed a busted flush, a no show at the festival and a dreadful performance in the Tingle Creek at Sandown in December. But just when he was in the bin, he roared back at Ascot last month with an impressive rout of some quality horses, and he was swiftly installed at odds on for this. If he's above 75% fit he will win this with his cock out, the nagging doubts are the two poor performances and a fairly quick turnaround from his previous race. But he's far better than this opposition, of whom the honest and likeable Janidil and Envoi Allen, who seemed set for superstardom a couple of years ago but is now a reliable character actor who is good enough for 3rd.
A Mighty Potter/Shishkin double at around 5/2 is not the worst bet you can make.
Winner Shishkin e/w: Janidil, Envoi Allen

3.30 Stayers Hurdle
Normally my least favourite of the Championship races but a cracking renewal this year. Blazing Khal has been dynamite every time he's run, but is fragile, missing most of last season and running only once this year, in which he destroyed a string field. He's a worthy favourite, but fragility raises doubts. Teahupoo has surpassed him for favouritism, mainly based around him loving the mud, but I'm not convinced it will be deep enough for him. Home By The Lee has had a cracking season with two fine wins, but like most O'Brien horses might like drier ground. Flooring Porter has won this the past two years, but just about his only good form in that time has been in this race but this is a race notable for repeat winners and odds around 6/1 make him attractive. Klassical Dream is one of my horses, a likeable maverick, and is also attractively priced around 8s, given his class and festival form. And Paisley Park might be 11 years old, but he could easily win if the principals hit the gas too early and it falls apart for him - possible but unlikely.
Winner: Blazing Khal e/w: Home By The Lee, Klassical Dream

4.10 Plate Handicap Chase
Thos one would be sure to be a pointless answer if people were asked to ame a race at the Cheltenham festival. Very low profile. Like the other handicap chases, this is likely to be one for the British, despite Emmet Mullins' So Scottish and his Uncle Willie's Haut en Couleurs being the first two in the market. I'm punting on Datsalrightgino, good value at 12/1, and Midnight River for the Skeltons at slightly longer odds.
E/w: Datsalrightgino, Midnight River

4.50 Mares Novice Hurdle
Luccia is the fav and most likely winner, impressively unbeaten thus far, with slightly clumsy jumping and lack of depth (and numbers) in previous opposition being the potential stumbling blocks. Lot Of Joy is worth keeping onside, being a slightly under the radar Townend/Mullins entrant, if such a thing is possible. A big field of inexperienced types which often produces winners at long odds, so worth having a couple of longshots, mine are The Model Kingdom and Foxy Girl, as well as Princess Zoe, a fine former flat horse who dominates the Twitter feed of her trainer Tony Mullins, and so can't go unbacked.
Winner: Lucia e/w: Lot of Joy; The Model Kingdom, Princess Zoe

5.30 Kim Muir Handicap Chase
The one for amateur jockeys and no surprise to see the long established
professional Irish amateurs of O'Neill, P W Mullins and Codd the first three in the betting. Stumptow is fav and might well win, but let him win at that price. 6 places widely available and I've landed on Fontaine Collenges, Anightinlambourn and Captain Cattistock to try and pick up some place money for the home team.
E/w: Anightinlambourn, Fontaine Collenges, Captain Cattistock

[jwdd27]

Well that was absolutely brutal - a day to remind you that it's not easy picking winners, and that no one knows anything.
Of course while I was doing my bollocks Mrs D was quite happily racking up the winners and is now £200 to the good for the week. I'm about £50 down, but remain hopeful I'll get it back on Day 4. A truncated preview this time, Day 3 also taught me that it's not helpful to overthink things.

Day 4

1.30 Triumph Hurdle
The best 4 year olds. Normally one of my favourite races, but this year the market is dominated by three Mullins good things Lossiemouth, Blood Destiny and Gala Marceau, with a huge gap to the 4th fav. A combination tricast is order of the day, Lossiemouth should win.
Winner: Lossiemouth


2.10 County Hurdle
A handicap packed with quality which is a relief from last year's farce, where Mullins snuck in an obvious graded horse (State Man), which duly pissed in. I'm still keen for Jonjo O'Neill to get a winner, so his Petit Tonnerre (Little Thunder) gets the nod, with course horses Saint Sam and Ballyadam also punted.
e/w: Petit Tonnerre; Saint Sam; Ballyadam

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
The potato race! Soft ground will turn this into even more of a war of attrition, and I fancy Elliott's Favori de Champdou to be the last to run low on petrol, with Stay Away Fay and Weveallbeencaught (very topical) selected to plod on into the extra places at decent prices.
Winner Favori de Champdou e/w: Weveallbeencaught, Stay Away Fay

3.30 Gold Cup
This looks an absolute cracker on paper. A short favourite in Galopin De Champs (rascal of the field), but some real depth to the field, with practically every horse in with a decent chance. Last year's winner A Plus Tard has only one disastrous run at Sandown to his name this year, so is second favourite on the back of last year's impressive performance, as well as the De Bromhead stable's return to top form. He also runs Minella Indo, winner 2 year's ago and second last year but 18/1 this time. Bravemansgame leads the home challenge after an impressive victory in the King George, with Ahoy Senor (spring horse) and Protektorat (3rd last year, thorough stayer) also in with a shout. The Irish also have chances with Noble Yeats, Stattler and Conflated, all of whom stay.
If it really gets bad ground wise Royal Pagaille c9 es I to tye equation at a big price.
It's a tough puzzle, but I'm going with the probable superstar favourite. Him and Enurgumene are similar in character so I can see the same result.
Winner: Galopin de Champs E/w: Ahoy Senor, Stattler

4.10 Hunter Chase
The amateurs Gold Cup. An intriguing field of old slow horses eho you thought had retired, and younger unknown quantities from the point-to-point sphere. I'm going with The Storyteller (12 year old) from column A, and Rocky's Howya from column B. Each way, as Vaucelet is a worthy but dull fav and will likely win.
Winner: Vaucelet E/W: The Storyteller, Rocky's Howya

4.50 Mare's Chase
One Mares race too many IMO. Allegorie de Vassy is favourite just ahead of Impervious and I think she'll win, with her raw talent outweighing untidy jumping. Pink Legend is nlan e/w longshot.
Winner: Allegorie de Vassy e/w: Pink Legsnd

5.30 Martin Pipe
And finally, conditional jockeys having a spin in a race which has thrown up a few stars recently (e.g. Galopins de Champ 2 years ago). Fairly open affair, I've landed on Irish Hill to give Paul Nicholls another winner, and Spirit of Legend to run him close.
WInner: Irish Hill e/w Spirit of Legend

Thanks for reading, if you have

[Simon G]

I've really enjoyed it jwdd27 - thanks for the tips.

[The Mighty Trin]

Well we won nothing, but had a great day out. An amazing atmosphere and very well organised. Insane queues for the bars meant that we also saved a bit, although I took a hit at the champagne tent.

[Logan Mountstuart]

Gallopin Des Champs sort of saved my bacon. My only other winner was Envoi Allen.

I had Stattler ew as well in the Gold Cup. Not sure what happened to him. Normally such a reliable horse.

[jwdd27]

Gallopin Des Champs sort of saved my bacon. My only other winner was Envoi Allen.

I had Stattler ew as well in the Gold Cup. Not sure what happened to him. Normally such a reliable horse.

Not sure, it was the same with Minella Indo, who missed the start a bit but then never travelled, but that could have been down to a late jockey change, De Boinville doesn't like to do much work. When he pulled Minella up he very nearly took out Noble Yeats, who was behind him and had just woken from his mid-race nap, going in to claim 4th.
But perhaps the gallop being set by Ahoy Senor was quicker than it seemed, Stattler probably needed the pace to slow a bit so he could plod his way through.
A mighty run from Bravemansgame - like State Man in the Champion Hurdle he would have won it comfortably in a "normal" year.