We're one week out. This is the best I can do for a thread title. I'll post my picks later tonight or tomorrow since it's always nice to share a combination of totally obvious and way off. I did pick the Dodgers to win it all in 2020 (and about a decade straight before that) and the Braves in 2021. The NL East is going to be the toughest in my opinion.
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Moving to DH was the wrong decision given the choice to align with one or the other. -
Fangraphs' projections agree with danielmak (in that the third best team in the NL East still has almost a 1 in 5 chance to win the division)
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-oddsComment
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Here are my picks for 2022. I'd be curious to see what other folks are picking. I'll check out UA's link after I post this.
A little preamble. I have a feeling this new playoff format is going to hurt the best teams. I know there is a rest vs. rust debate that exists in every sport, but for baseball too much rest seems to create rust. Hot teams seem to get over minor injuries.
NL East
Mets
Atlanta
Phillies
Nationals
Marlins
I wrote above that I think this is the hardest division to predict. I think the AL East is rough as well, but this one is tough because I don't think the teams will be as good as other analysts think. The Mets have serious problems with keeping people healthy. I don't know if the have cycled through medical and health sciences folks, but they really need to steal from clubs who keep their players healthy. Atlanta might suffer a hangover. MLB has not seen a repeat champion since 1999/2000. That's partially down to strength of rosters but also the exhaustion that comes with the extra wins required to be the champ. The Phils are poorly built. Nats and Marlins aren't there. But all of these teams could be bunched together.
NL Central
Brewers
Cards
Cubs
Pirates
Reds
The Reds should be challenging for the division but they pulled a Marlins: spend a lot and then tear it apart a year later but I'm thinking the last iteration of the Marlins, not the championships (obviously). I expect the Brewers and Cards will both make the playoffs. The Cubs have spent enough not to tank but not enough to get out of the middle.
NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Dbacks
Rockies
Colorado could be the worst team in the NL. Padres should have the season they were expected to have last season. I, like most people (even some Giants fans who might not say this out loud) expected the Giants to fade last year. Still, so many of those guys had career years. The problem with career years is there is nowhere to go but down. I still expect the GIants to compete for an expanded wild card option. The Dodgers have too much depth to fall out of the playoffs and will spend money/trade from depth (see Scherzer last season). But they have a lot of unanswered questions in the pen and the starting rotation which should keep them under 100 wins. I know, that's only a concern for me and other diehards.
AL East
Rays
Jays
Yankees
Red Sox
Os
At some point this Rays run is going to end. I think they have done 4 deals during the off season, which should be a concern. But their outfield talent is young and good. Jays, the same. I worry about the Jays pitching. I don't know if the additions will pitch to the expected levels. The Yankees have depth, but (like the Mets) keep running into injuries. The starting pitching is not frightening at all beyond Cole. Red Sox were solid last year, but pitching is a concern. Os will be better than the Rockies. Honestly, this is hard because any of the top 4 that I listed could go all the way or flame out.
AL Central
White Sox
Cleveland
Tigers
Twins
Royals
This is tough because all these teams except the White Sox will probably suck. Cleveland has the best starting pitching of the others. Tigers and Royals are trying. I have no idea what the Twins are doing. Another example of Reds: buy and dump without much of a plan. They spent money on Buxton, who is hurt all the time. Unlike the AL East where 1-4 could all finish in first, 2-5 could all finish in last place. This division should be sent on sabbatical.
AL West
Astros
Angels
Mariners
Rangers
As
I think this division is bunched up. As seem to want to reubild, Angels are out from under the contracts of some boppers but I have no idea who will pitch with any consistency, the Rangers have made some nice moves but a first season together for a lot of these guys might mean growing pains (look for Seager to be out most of the season as always), so Astros by default and because they have good arms and still have some solid bats. They also know how to win, unlike every other team in this division (As lost too many of their best players already and more to come).
Wild Cards NL: Atlanta, Padres, and Cards (barely over Giants)
Wild Cards AL: Jays, Yankees, Red Sox (nuts, I know but the rest of the league is too weak. The AL East will need to clean up against the Central and West).
WS: Dodgers beat the Jays (who will need to trade away a big prospect to land the kind of ace -- Verlander -- that can help them go far in the playoffs, pick up someone like Greinke, and hope Riyu can be a Cy caliber pitcher all season).
Now I'll see how I stack up to Fangraphs and PECOTA if that's out.
Last edited by danielmak; 31-03-2022, 17:27.Comment
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I’ve never been less-interested. Sadly.Comment
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Well known PoS Trevor Bauer has sued The Athletic and Molly Knight for defamation, which is very on brand for him.Comment
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He claimed the incident in Ohio was a woman trying to money grab. Possibly believable. But then a second case with him being the central tie to both....Originally posted by ursus arctos View PostComment
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I'm pretty confident the Cubs can lose the division even without tanking.The Cubs have spent enough not to tank but not enough to get out of the middle.Comment
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Damn. Multiple sources reporting the Dodgers have traded Pollock to White Sox for Kimbrell. I wasn't a Pollock fan, but Kimbrell is so inconsistent. His all-time great numbers related to strike outs is bloated by early dominance. Unless the White Sox are paying some of that deal, the Dodgers should have kept Jansen who is only $1million more if I remember correctly.Comment
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I have probably posted this every year in the baseball thread: The Mets need to fire their entire fitness and medical staff and look to programs with the least injuries (college and pro). Then spend the money to hire those folks.Comment
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Padres get Sean Manaea, as the NL West arms race and the A's fire sale continue apace.
Oakland are a very challenging club to support.Comment
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I'm a T-Mobile customer now, so I redeemed my free MLB.TV subscription for the season. Now if I can only figure out a way to do a VPN or DNS so I can watch Dodger games (it's apparently not very straightforward with my setup--smart TV in the living room with Roku, which doesn't allow for VPN/DNS on the device itself, and I have an Eero router, which also can't have a VPN/DNS installed in the router). It might be easiest just to plug a laptop or iPad into an HDMI port.Comment
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Go Mariners.
Though as I've just seen, not tonight.Comment
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I think you can get a router VPN via Eero if you pay for the Secure+ tier, but you'd need to use Encrypt.me and I don't know what their performance is like. Alternatively you could just buy another router, install the VPN on that and pass it through. But, yeah, simplest will be to do it at the device level. Roku has screen mirroring doesn't it?Originally posted by Incandenza View Post
I also don't know how aggressive MLB.tv is about blocking VPNs.Last edited by Ginger Yellow; 07-04-2022, 10:01.Comment
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I don't think the Padres will have much more than an average season.
They've moved on Victor Caratini who was part of the deal when they signed Yu Darvish. No one knows what that means for Darvish. They seemed to be a unit. Maybe the relationship has soured. Caratini was the catcher for Joe Musgrove's franchise first no-hitter last season.
Their other roster changes haven't been inspiring. Tommy Pham was moved on, although he was a better hitter than Padres fans generally acknowledged. I'm pleased Wil Myers is still around for now. The Tatis dramacrisis train continued in the close season as he broke his wrist falling off a motorbike in the Dominican Republic. Makes a change from dislocating his shoulder during an at bat. At least they have kept hold of other young talent like Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham.
The pitching staff looks really strong on paper, especially if Clevinger can actually pitch this year. But in reality, well, if those arms stay healthy then they might do better than average. It's a big if though.Comment
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Yeah, after last year I'm beginning to wonder whether the Padres might be better off investing a couple of hundred million in medical staff and physios rather than more very expensive but fragile players.Comment
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They apparently block some of the more commonly used VPN IP addresses. Also, you can't cast via the MLB.tv app, or so I've read from others getting it through T-MobileOriginally posted by Ginger Yellow View PostComment
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Pretty sure I've cast it before, but maybe it doesn't work to RokuComment
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Thanks for your informative posts danielmak, I'm intending to watch some baseball when possible to fill the massive hole left by the NFL season ending. I'm going all in supporting the Dodgers, just like every other person in Guadalajara, so no problems choosing my team.
My only issue is the quantity of games and best viewing approach. I'm totally turned off by basketball and ice hockey, I've just got no idea which game to watch an why, the quantity and schedule is just all over the place. So, I'm worried I'll have the same problems with baseball. I guess the key thing is just stick with the games your team is playing and watch other games if you've got nothing better to do? I really can't understand how you can have such an in depth knowledge of players and team ability, but I didn't understand much about NFL in September last year and feel I can hold my own now.Comment
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Opening Day! Rain in Chicago! Blue Jays getting hyped! Such enjoyment...Comment
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I go away for a day and look what happens.
Incandenza A friend of mine followed this before the Dodgers were added to DirecTV:
https://www.laweekly.com/l-a-weeklys...-warner-cable/
I have a dedicated London VPN line through Torguard so I can access BBC stuff. The dedicated line works but the general London/Manchester options don't trick the BBC. I don't know if MLBTV is as sophisticated as BBC's blocker. Torguard has instructions about various ways to install the VPN app. You might see if they include your router. A final option is to pick up an Amazon Firestick. They are cheap, there are instructions on various sites about switching to developer mode to add VPN. I think Torguard has an app for Firestick so you don't even need to mess with developer mode (which is easy).
@steveeeeeeeee Inca and I welcome you to the party. My advice is just watch what you want to watch. Any given night there will be games between rival teams that will be interesting. And there will be games against non-traditional rivals who should be in the mix for winning (e.g., the White Sox playing Atlanta could be fun). But there are so many baseball games that you will wear yourself out trying to follow too many games. And the games are too damn long. If you have access to something like MLB Network then you can just watch what is now known as a whiparoud: producers jump from game to game when something exciting is happening and studio analysts talk about the action. I can't do this for futbol. I need to watch or listen to complete games.
Some other news I missed during the off-season. There is now a communication system that pitchers, catchers, and three fielders can wear to protect against sign stealing and hopefully speed up the game when men are on base. This is great. I wish it would have come sooner but better late than never.
The Padres have traded the Sheriff. I think this is a good move. He had about 4 months of lights out baseball and has been a sub-par pitcher since.Comment
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On current trends, Hendricks is going to pitch dozens of no hitters this season.Comment
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