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    Olympic Games medal predictions

    Huge list here:

    https://apnews.com/article/sports-20...6e6555effc47be

    But which gold medal is the easiest to predict? USA basketball?

    And any other forecasts?

    #2
    If Japan don't win a couple of Judo ones it'll be surprised.

    Comment


      #3
      Ireland's Rory McIlroy's got a fair shout, too.

      Comment


        #4
        The USA Basketball team is probably the worst one since the Dream Teams began. They have been embarrassed in both warm up games and could very easily not win gold.

        There will be a lot of World Records on the track.

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          #5
          I imagine US womens team gymnastics has to be a near dead-cert for gold, right?

          Comment


            #6
            Unfortunately in almost anything determined by judges I expect to see a lot of decisions going Japan"s way.

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              #7
              Easiest to predict? Barring illness, Katie Ledecky should win two Gold medals with room to spare, and has an outside chance at 5:

              1500m Freestyle => 11 seconds faster in qualifying times than anyone else, WR holder, 1st time the event is being held at olympics
              800m Freestyle => ~4 seconds faster in qualifying times than anyone else. WR holder
              400m Freestyle => 3 seconds slower in qualifying times than Titmus, WR holder
              200m Freestyle => ~ 1 second slower in qualifying times than Titmus and Pellegrini. Pellegrini WR holder
              4x200 Freestyle Relay

              She was also less than a second from qualifying for the 100m, which I mean, come on, would have been utterly ridiculous. I'd be the first to argue she's not even as dominant lately as she was 4 or 5 years ago.

              Comment


                #8
                on the men's side, Caleb Dressel has the 50m Free, 100m Free, and 100m Butterfly, and possibly 4 different relays. If watching for world records, the 100m Butterfly is the one I'd watch.

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                  #9
                  Adam Peaty is another swimmer for who it would be a major shock not to win gold, this time in the 100m breaststroke. He is the only man to have gone under 57 seconds for the event, and also the only to go under 58. Peaty' world record is 56.88, and he then has the next 17 best ever times until you finally reach Arno Kamminga at 58.10 (set at this year's European Championship, nearly half a second behind Peaty)

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Sports Illustrated used to do one of these, don't know if they still do now given their downward march since Rio.

                    I know the cycling road races are a bit of a lottery but I'm intrigued as to how they'd get a women's race finishing van der Breggen - Moolman Pasio - Vollering. Vollering is a better sprinter than the other two, so they're saying van der Breggen and Moolman Pasio have broken away together and either it's been a solo win or a sprint between them. That's ... quite a specific prediction. Or they wrote the piece the day after a Giro Donne stage finished Moolman Pasio - Vollering - van der Breggen.

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                      #11
                      Kellie Harrington in Boxing and Sanita Puspure in Rowing are Ireland's best Gold medal chances.

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                        #12
                        USA Women's Basketball is a much better bet than the men's team (the latter have now won a couple of warmups, but still are not clicking).

                        The thing with gymnastics is that the margin of error at this level is so small, and that small mistakes can have major impacts on scores.

                        I would second Ledecky as the surest bet for at least one gold.

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                          #13
                          Ledecky has basically made a point of swimming sprints lately (going head-to-head against Manuel a few times), and has been very, very competitive. I think racing in the 400m against an opponent of similar caliber will be very interesting and might be the push needed for a new WR there. A few years ago I thought she might be able to crack 8 minutes in the 800m, but I think that's gone now. Curse of women's swimming, she's probably past her peak years for world records at the longer distances.

                          Piece of Ledecky trivia, her world record time in the 1500m would have finished 8th this year at the US Olympic Team Trials. In the men's 1500m.


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                            #14
                            I predict that the virus will lead the medal tables

                            https://twitter.com/themainichi/status/1417361818817687552

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                              #15
                              Men's Rugby Sevens gold to Fiji.

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                                #16
                                It's going to take something spectacular to stop Australia's Logan Martin winning the men's freestyle BMX. In the women's event Britain's Charlotte Worthington has a genuine medal chance, although America's Hannah Roberts has to be favourite for gold.

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                                  #17
                                  USA Rugby Women take an early lead in the likeability lists - https://twitter.com/wuji_mp3/status/1418391923451076612

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by elguapo4 View Post
                                    Kellie Harrington in Boxing and Sanita Puspure in Rowing are Ireland's best Gold medal chances.
                                    Probably throw in Paul O'Donovan and Fintan McCarthy to the equation, as for Rogin the Armchair fan, such has been the decline in McIlroy's form in recent years that Shane Lowry has better prospects of success in the golf.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Sporting View Post
                                      Taekwando:

                                      "Women’s 57 kg

                                      Gold: Jade Jones, Britain"


                                      Nope.

                                      Tennis

                                      "Silver: Ash Barty, Australia"


                                      Nope again.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        CYCLING

                                        Road Race

                                        Men

                                        Gold: Wout van Aert, Belgium

                                        Silver: Tadej Pogacar, Slovenia

                                        Bronze: Michael Woods, Canada



                                        Much bettter.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          There has been a pleasingly wide distribution of gold medals early

                                          Kosovo, Ecuador, Iran, Hungary and Thailand have all won events

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                            I imagine US womens team gymnastics has to be a near dead-cert for gold, right?
                                            Biles picks up an unfortunately-timed injury to manifest the "near" in this prediction.

                                            Comment

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