Sneezy steps in for Dopey, everybody Happy: Cheltenham 2021

[jwdd27]

Yes, we're officially a year into the pandemic as it's Cheltenham next Tuesday, this year being run behind closed doors, as last year's should have been. It was rather unfairly blamed (with very little in the way of evidence) for spreading the virus, but there was still a whole week of crowded pubs, transport, offices, schools etc etc after they wrapped it up, and it was unfortunate to coincide almost exactly with Covid reaching the end of the runway in the UK. To remind you, football was only halted on the Friday after Arteta was revealed to have the virus after the Olympiacos game (and Arsenal are happily having an anniversary rematch today to mark the occasion).

Anyway, Gordon Elliott is banned for his dead horse photo idiocy, and his licence has been taken over by Denise "Sneezy" Foster, presuambly because she is near to his operation in Co. Meath. She has 10 horses in her own yard, but now finds herself taking 106 horses (even after the defections) to Cheltenham, although doubtless Elliott and his assistants will be making most of the decisions.
Mrs D Foster is the name to look for on the cards, despite racing being a level playing field for female participation, female trainers still get a title, and in some cases (Jessica "Mrs John" Harrington) don't even get their own name. She'll have a very strong hand in the lower grade handicap races, but Elliott's yard is short of a genuine superstar for the Championship races nowadays.

The Champion Hurdle on the opening day looks a real cracker - Honeysuckle is a worthy favourite (10 wins in a row), but is up against her fellow mare and last year's winner Epatante, and my favourite Goshen, who I have become obsessed with since he cost me all that money tripping himself up at the last hurdle in last year's Triumph, when the rest of the field had fallen out of next door's TV. After a couple of disappointing runs on the flat and hurdles, he came storming back the other week at Wincanton, destroying a quality field with minimum effort and absolutely blitzing through the line. I think he'll win spectacularly. And then they'll ask Jamie Moore how it felt last year when he unseated.

Earlier on the first day we've got Shishkin v Enurgumene in the Arkle, I fancy the latter, probably only because I'm not a Shishkin fan. Enurgumene won the Irish version in good style, although got an uncontested lead and had a rival fall late on. Of the other strong favourites, I'm backing Monkfish, Envoi Allen and Kilcruit, but laying Chacun Pour Soi, Appreciate It, Al Boum Photo and both Paisley Park and Thyme Hill.

Heart rules head every time. I love it.

Previews, tips and all that to follow. Good luck.

[jwdd27]

Let's go... it's Cheltmas! One of the bookies came up with that one, but I like it - for me, it is the most wonderful time of the year.

Day One - Champion Tuesday
Always my favourite day, and the one I attend when I go. The Supreme, the Arkle and the Champion Hurdle.

1.20 Supreme Novices Hurdle
Usually a high quality contest which identifies the hurdling and chase superstars of the future. Usually high quality, but not this year. A smaller field than usual and not much to set the pulse racing. Appreciate It is a strong favourite, although not many of the pundits think it will win, despite it having the form and course experience (Champion Bumper winner last year). It is the most likely to win, but not worth backing at the odds. I'm on Blue Lord e/w.

1.55 Arkle Chase
Enurgumene's lameness has made it a complete penalty kick for Shiskin, who would have probably won anyway. It's 1/2 and getting shorter so a complete no bet. Captain Guinness is my selection to follow Shishkin home at a distance.

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase
Hooray, a handicap. 16 to pick from, there's no such thing as a no hoper so you can feel free to pick what you want. I think course form and experience are useful, so I wouldn't discount the three 11 year olds, OK Corral, Fingerontheswitch and crowd favourite (when we had crowds) Vintage Clouds. But having said that I'm picking two 8 year olds, namely Milan Native to give Sneezy Foster her first festival winner, with Pym also a likely contender for Henderson, who like Elliott (Foster) knows how to ready one/campaign a horse astutely to fiddle the handicap. Pym is being backed this evening, which is good in that other people rate its chances, bad because I've not got my bet on yet.

3.05 Champion Hurdle
A cracking renewal, certainly better than the last few years. Head says Honeysuckle, who is undefeated and a complete class act. I've backed her using a couple of free bets. Heart says Goshen by 15 lengths. Some dangerous floaters down the betting (Abracadabras, Sharjah, Silver Streak) who might make it interesting if one of the favourites meets trouble.

3.40 Mares Hurdle
aka the Willie Mullins benefit hurdle. Concertista will win it for him this time, but they seriously need to scrap these races. Great White Shark is my token e/w selection, but I have no great interest in it (other than Concertista being in a couple of my favs/sure things accas).

4.15 Boodles Juvenile Hurdle
These being the 4 year olds not quite good enough for the Triumph on Friday. 23 runners so anything could happen, and they've done a bit of beating each other which makes it a tough one to call. JP O'Brien usually does well with the young 'uns that his Dad chucks his way from the flat, and Busselton fits the profile well. I'm also strong on "the new Goshen", Nassalam, who won a couple of Fontwell basement small field hurdles by a mile, but since then has come up a bit short when properly tested. More of an Ariel Ortega than a Lionel Messi. Has lengthened to 20/1 from 8s, which doesn't inspire confidence, but I'll still chuck a quid at it. Most bookies are paying 5 places, so a third selection is called for, the topical Sage Advice being a decent shout.

4.50 National Hunt Chase
This is usually for amateur jockeys, who are not allowed to compete this year as they are not classed as "elite". So you can't just pick Jamie Codd's horse as you normally would. They've also shortened the race after the chaos the last time I was there, where only four very tired horses completed, virtually walking over the line. Not a very inspiring field this time around, Escaria Ten is a tentative selection, Remastered is another.


Enjoy.

[Simon G]

As usual, this is the only time I bet on Racing (and the Grand National). Having read the form and decided a pin in the paper is the best way to go I've gone with the followng today:

1:20 - Metier - 9/2
2:30 - Alnadam - 17/2
3:05 - Honeysuckle - 3/2
3:40 - Roksana - 11/4
4:15 - Houx Gris - 9/2
4:50 - Galvin - 7/2

The 1:20 is a win only thanks to Sky Bet's up to ?10 losing stake back as cash and the other 5 are on a 50p e/w accumulator.

I like to bet big....

[Third rate Leszno]

I'll be honest, I've struggled to work up any enthusiasm for Cheltenham this year and haven't even bothered to take leave or keep my diary free for anything other than the Gold Cup - I'll leave the TiVo box on record and watch the races in between work calls.

Have done Goshen in the Champion hurdle today and had small bets on Aye Right, Dame de Compagnie and Remastered.

[johnr]

I'm on a Lucky (ha ha) 15, so am going e/w on Grumpy Charlie, Admiral's Secret, Indefatigable and Balco Saint. It's all very speculative and against my normal 'back something in the 8-16/1 slot', as I never get a sniff at Cheltenham anyway, and stand to win about ?135000 if they all come in first - if that happens, I promise to send y'all a voucher for one drink each when the pubs open...

[steveeeeeeeee]

Just placed my bets. Much like Simon, I'm poorly informed this year, having lost interest in most sport without spectators present. I've been good in recent years at predicting when favourites won't win, this year I don't have a clue and am largely betting on favourites or going pot luck on handicaps, which I always enjoy.

1:20 - Appreciate it - 5/6 F (?10 on Sky Bet promo)
1:55 - Shishkin - 1/2 F (?2)
2:30 - Admiral's Secret - 16/1 (?1)
3:05 - Honeysuckle - 5/4 (?2)
3:40 - Dame De Compagnie - 7/1 (?1)
4:15 - Soldier on Parade - 100/1 (50p ew)

[steveeeeeeeee]

A lack of any drama at the moment, with little competition against the favourites. My pot is growing, but the reduced fields reduce the excitement.

[johnr]

If any of you can keep an eye out for a sight of my first two selections, that'd be appreciated...

[jwdd27]

Disappointing.

Had a favourites acca, my finger was poised on the cash out button before Concertista, but I instead opted for a saver on Roksana, which was the only horse likely to beat it, wasn't It? Wasn't it?

Goshen decided he'd prefer a ride out in the country on his own to contesting a Champion Hurdle, Honeysuckle had them all beat though. Goshen is still my boy, still only 5 so he'll be back.

Oh, and a free horse tips email which I get every day tipped the 80/1 winner, but I didn't open the email. I did open the email crowing about it.

There's always tomorrow. And tonight at Newcastle before that.

[jwdd27]

Wow. A colleague on my work gambling WhatsApp group just casually posted "my cousin's horse was at Cheltenham today", along with a screenshot of a celebratory Facebook post by his cousin, who is, it turns out Vintage Clouds' head lass.

Now this lad is not the sharpest tool, and is mainly focused on football bets, but how it has never occurred to him to mention that his cousin works for Sue and Harvey Smith is beyond me. Especially as there are multiple messages flying around the group whenever "Vinny" runs.

I've told him to keep in touch with her, I want to be one of those "my mate's cousin works at the stable and she says..." tipsters. Except it would be true.

[Third rate Leszno]

I was 13p down for the day - by my standards that counts as successful!

[steveeeeeeeee]

?8.83 up, which doesn't seem much, seeing as I had 3 winners and one of those was a ?10 bet.

[jwdd27]

Day Two - Ladies Day???
It's usually Ladies Day, not sure if they're pressing on with that without crowds, who cares. I'm accompanying Mrs D to hospital at Halifax for a poorly timed minor examination, so will record it, having no doubt woefully failed to avoid the results while hanging around outside. Might have to mute a few WhatsApp groups.

1.20 Ballymore Novices Hurdle
Rachael Blackmore will get more patronising crap from ITV (they managed to refer to her as a lady and a girl while saying that it was very normal for a female jockey to win big races), as favourite Bob Olinger looks a good bet to bring home the prize. Bravemansgame would be most likely to get Nicholls off the mark.

1.55 Brown Advisory Novice Chase
Formerly known as the RSA, no need to waste time, Monkfish is nailed on and not worth a bet unless it's in a multiple. The Big Breakaway is a class act and is my fancy to follow him home.

2.30 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
I love this race, although I never get the winner. 26 runners, free for all, stick a pin in and hope for the best. Botox Has for the Moores, again, and Shakem Up'Arry are the unlucky ones to get the jwdd27 kiss of failure.

3.05 Champion Chase
Formerly the Queen Mother, god bless 'er. Used to be my favourite race years ago (Master Minded), not so keen now, especially when game trier Politologue somehow managed to win it last time. Slightly better quality this time. Chacun Pour Soi is a warm favourite, but hasn't run at Cheltenham before and is not an easy customer. First Flow has won me a fair chunk this year, improving every time and winning every time, he needs another career best, but I think he's got it in him. Put The Kettle On has winning festival form and is another to consider if the favourite blows up.

3.40 Cross Country Chase
This race used to signal it was time to take the dog out, head to the bar, make a start on supper, but it's become a hit in the past 10 years, thanks firstly to specialist trainer/jockey combo Enda Bolger/Nina Carberry, followed by the gutsy Cause of Causes, followed by the legendary Tiger Roll. Tiger is back for one last try having been outclassed by the French Easysland last year, and I'm giving him a chance by not backing him. I feel sure they'll retire him whatever the result, he sadly appears to have shot it. I'll leave Easysland at those very short odds and go for Alpha Des Obeaux, a class act on his day and 18/1 is great value.

4.15 Grand Annual Handicap Chase
This used to be at the end of the last day but has been shifted around to fit in another bullshit Mares race. Wide open, JP O'Brien's Us and Them has festival form and is my pick,and last year's ready winner Chosen Mate should be thereabouts, especially at 8/1.

4.50 Champion Bumper
Tony Mullins is a bit of a gobshite but knows his horses, and he was talking up his Kilcruit long before it had been near a track. It was bred by his mother, and has since been sensibly passed on to brother Willie. Flopped first time out, but has since shown his class and should win readily. Still available at odds against but that will change once the first favourite goes in earlier on. I Like To Move It is my outside chance for the Twiston-Davieses.

Roll on Thursday.

[Third rate Leszno]

I like Bravemansgame in the first, and Zanza in the 4.15. Between those I will probably fart about with some multiples on favourites, of which I like Easysland the most. Might do Le Breuil as a saver in the cross country.

[Simon G]

I finished yesterday a whopping ?1.40 up. I cashed out ?1.87 on the accumulator after the 3rd race because the maximum win was about ?8, then I put 43p e/w on the last two races. Placed in the first of that, with Galvin winning in the last. I consider that an almighty success for day 1.

On to today then, I've gone a bit favourite heavy:

1:20 - Bob Olinger - 7/4 - ?10 money back as cash single

E/W accumulator at 25p e/w (stop laughing at the back)
1:55 - Monkfish - 1/3
2:30 - Craigneiche - 7/1
3:05 - Chacun Pour Soi - 4/5
3:40 - Easysland - 5/6
4:15 - Embittered - 9/2
4:50 - Elle Est Belle - 16/1

If they all win (they won't) it pays out ?829.82. I'll probably cash out after Easysland if they've all won by then. Cash out really sorts the wimps from the real gamblers doesn't it?

I really wanted to go on to Tiger Roll, but being the only thing I've read about this year is how he's shot I decided it wasn't worth it.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

I don't often bet real money on national hunt racing as it's such a lottery but it's worth noting for OTFers that there is a thing called ITV7 you can log onto and create an account where you can pick 7 horses to win today and win 200 grand, completely free. It is linked to sky bettting but you don't have to deposit a penny or make any real bets whatesover (just ignore the popups tempting you to). I've just done mine for this afternoon and four of my picks are the same as Simon's above.

[Simon G]

I also do the ITV7.

[Guy Profumo]

I also do the ITV7.

The ITV7 (/6)

Nostalgia, eh?

[johnr]

I've been doing the ITV 7 for a few months, am really not a fan of this new tiebreaker - in the 7th race, you also have to get nearest to the distance won by, if there's more than one winner at that point - as it is a bit random, and effectively is an 'ITV 8'. I'd rather get a share of 50,000 than fuck all (I know, I know, I'd rather win 50,000 than share it too...). That said, I'll be entering in a mo.

Other than that, I'm in the e/w Lucky 15 again, despite its lack of success yesterday, last Saturday, the previous Saturday...

2.30 Dysart Diamond (1st 6 places), First Flow, Some Neck (4 places), Amoola Gold (5 places).

[jwdd27]

All caught up.

Tiger, what a horse.
Bob Olinger impressive, Monkfish less so but it was a novice chase and he jumped like a novice. Put The Kettle On brilliant.

I've clawed back a bit of cash, mainly thanks to a Ladbrokes boost of Bob Olinger/Sir Gerhard.

[Simon G]

I've had a decent day today - Bob Olinger got me started, then the acca was looking ok for the places until Embittered came down. With a little of my Bob Olinger winnings, I put ?2.50 e/w on Sir Gerhard and that took me up to +18.83 on the week so far.

I also had a couple of side bets on a couple of the other races with no luck whatsoever.

[Third rate Leszno]

Absolute wank on the betting front, but what a joy to see Tiger Roll spreadeagle the field like that.

[steveeeeeeeee]

Tiger Roll caught me out completely, great to see him him back to the form of 2 years ago.

I'm up 14 pound now, I did well on getting placings in the handicaps with Not that Fuisse and Tea Clipper. I did a treble on Mullins horses for other races, only Monkfish won.

Nothing adventurous tomorrow, ?10 Sky Bet on Envoi Allen and then ?2 on Paisley Park.

[Paul S]

No enthusiasm for it this year. I've been to Cheltenham three times for Gold Cup day and loved every minute of it. But online betting does absolutely nothing for me. I would rather stand in my local betting shop with a load of regulars watching the races than sat in my front room on my own with billy no mates. Sight, sound and emotion are what drives horse racing and I get nothing out of Cheltenham during lockdown.

[jwdd27]

Day 3 - St Patrick's Thursday
I think they've done away with the labels, but it's like when they change race sponsors, the labels stick.
This looks a cracker, and it has the most competitive race of the week in the Ryanair Chase.

1.20 Marsh Novices Chase
If Shishkin and Monkfish were bankers, Envoi Allen is the mega banker. Has won 11 times out of 11, including twice at the Festival, and has barely been off the bridle in those races. He's not spectacular (his first victory was 10 lengths, but every other win has been single figures), but he just wins, finding whatever is necessary. It would be nice if he got challenged and was forced to really dig deep, but I can't see it happening here. He's changed stables, but Sir Gerhard and Galvin have already come in having left Elliott late, and he's quite a placid character by all accounts. I fancy Fusil Raffles to follow him home at a price.

1.55 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)
A big field of familiar names from the various qualifiers over the winter, and it's as open as it should be. However, I'm sticking close to the head of the market to find the winner Come On Teddy has a course win under his belt, is nicely handicapped and gets my vote, along with The Bosses Oscar from the Elliott/Foster camp.

2.30 Ryanair Chase
Wow. What a field. Absolutely packed with proven Cheltenham talent, and absolutely wide open. Min, Samcro, Melon, Dashel Drasher, Kalashnikov, Allaho, Imperial Aura... every time I look at the card I see the glaringly obvious winner. I'm carrying on my vendetta against Joseph O'Brien by tipping Fakir D'oudairies. A very impressive performer for whom 2m is too fast, but who doesn't quite stay 3m, so this 2m4f should be ideal. Each way old favourite Melon should make the frame yet again. But Samcro is 9/1! Kalashnikov is 25/1, but can absolutely trounce this field if he's on a good day. Really looking forward to this one.

3.05 Stayers Hurdle
I've never been that keen on this race, hurdles are for speed not slogging over. Paisley Park is a warm favourite since Thyme Hill's withdrawal, but his poor performance last year sticks in the mind, and I'm not sure he can do a Tiger Roll. I'm taking Tiger's jockey Keith Donoghue to steer home the hugely likeable The Storyteller. He's probably slightly better at fences, but he can stay and knows how to steal a race. I also keep getting drawn to a huge outsider. Main Fact is 66/1, and there's probably good reason for that, but he won 9 races in a row before two failures up in class. He's got a place chance, I hope.

3.40 Festival Plate (Handicap Chase)
A decent field for one of the lowest profile handicaps. Wide open, so another one for the bookies. I'll back 3 or 4 in various ways, and I'm hitting O'Brien twice in this one. A Wave Of The Sea and Fils D'oudairies are both plausible winners so my backing will no doubt make sure they don't. Caribean Boy (their spelling) also appeals for the underperforming Henderson yard.

4.15 Mares Novices Hurdle
These Mares races. Breeders like them because they keep mares in training, the form they have shown boosting the prices of their foals, but they can be desperately low quality, the decent mares go straight in with the boys. Anyway, it's O'Brien time again, Mighty Blue is good value at 12/1. And The Glancing Queen is a nice horse with a nice name, and Alan King is a good sort.

4.50 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Another big field handicap, more interesting than usual as it's normally for amateur riders but only professionals are allowed this year. Shantou Flyer is normally ridden by its owner David Maxwell, and he's had some success on it over the years, including placing at the festival, but as with his other horses you are always left wondering if a professional jockey might eke out something extra. Harry Cobden is one of the best and he takes the ride. Storm Control for Kerry Lee is a viable alternative.

Looking forward to it, some winners would be a bonus.