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Prestbury Park is in your heart - Cheltenham 2020

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    Prestbury Park is in your heart - Cheltenham 2020

    It's that time again. The Jockey Club will be pleased that the calendar has made this year's festival an "early" Cheltenham, another week and the spread of Covid-19 would have put it in serious doubt, especially if Ireland's infection rate were to pick up.

    It's not looking a vintage year, although I probably say that every year. Envoi Allen (Ballymore) and the thread title reference Paisley Park (Stayers) look like the absolute bankers, with Tiger Roll (cross country), Appreciate It (Bumper) and Altior (Champion Chase, lameness permitting) in the "very probable" category.

    Altior v Defi de Seuil v Chacun Pour Soi will be the highlight if all 3 line up. Heart and head says Altior, but wallet says throw a free bet at Defi. Chacun won't hack it against those two at Cheltenham.

    Otherwise it's the usual - the best horses up against each other, with some unknown Irish nag you didn't even see on the card coming through late to take it.

    Trainers: Mullins looks to have a stronger line up than Elliott this year, after a couple of years of comparative weakness, and he's a justifiable favourite. I like the look of De Bromhead at 12/1, especially if he starts to rack up the weaker handicaps.

    Jockeys: If De Bromhead does well, so will Rachael Blackmore, who is a good value 5/1. She's not quite as bubbly and charismatic as Bryony Frost, but she's a much better jockey so doesn't need to be quite as engaging.


    #2
    I'm a big fan of the Champion Hurdle this year, especially the whining from people about it being the 'worst ever'. Well, it's competitive, which for me is miles better than there being some Mullins 4/11 shot walking home the winner.

    I've listened to podcasts, read tipsters and watched YouTube Preview Nights, and I have no idea in any of the races. Will probably put aside a tenner for each day, back two or three only, and end up £40 down. As long as it's exciting, and of course it will be*, then I'm ok with that.

    Even the horses I really like will find it hard in competitve races, so I'll not go tipping any of them. I do like Copperhead and Goshen, but their not Irish trained which is a negative.

    *Unless Mullins/Elliott win 16 races between them, which would be very very dull.

    Comment


      #3
      One does wonder why it's actually going ahead, especially now that a case of coronavirus has actually occurred in Cheltenham today.

      Comment


        #4
        And your tips for tomorrow



        1.30 Asterion Forlange (IWAC)
        2.10 Notebook (nb)
        3.30 Pentland Hills (nap)

        Comment


          #5
          Day One "Champions Day"

          My favourite day of the festival, and the day I go and see the years that I go (not this year).

          The roar when the Supreme goes off is something to behold, except for last year when it false started (there'll be lots of those this year, the starters have got a lot fussier).

          Feature races:
          Supreme Novices Hurdle (1.30)
          Some years this will be a great race, I was there when Altior won it, with Buveur D'Air, Min and a good few other future Graded winners in behind.
          Other years it can not point to anything at all, last year I saw Klassical Dream look very impressive, but he's gone on to shit the bed this season, and the favourites (Angel's Breath, Al Dancer) haven't progressed much either, although Fakir d'Oudairies still has time on his side.
          This year I don't like Shishkin or Asterion, both look impressive but Shishkin hasn't beaten anything good, Asterion jumps right, and neither have been to Cheltenham before. I like Chantry House (winner at Chl in December) for the win and Captain Guinness (Blackmore) to nick a place.

          Champion Hurdle (3.30)
          As KGR alludes to, a lot of experts suggest it's very weak, which some others have suggested that just means it's competitive and there's not an obvious winner.
          Again I don't like the favourites, Epatante has done well at other tracks, but this time last year finished 9th behind some absolute rubbish in a very weak Mares Novices. Pentland won a weak Triumph last year and won't stay in the mud. Cilaos Emery lacks any real Cheltenham/British form. I'm edging towards the perpetually underestimated multiple Grade 1 winner Supasundae at a decent price (10/1). He will enjoy the slog and will be there at the finish. Silver Streak looks tasty to place at 20/1.

          Arkle (2.10)
          I'm all about Notebook, which I think will win with something to spare. More experienced (and in stronger races) than Brewin'Upastorm. I like Fakir but not in Notebook's class. I think Maire Binrigh will run the legs off most of them from the front and should stay in the frame at a decent 12/1.

          Mares' Hurdle (4.10)
          I was standing right in front of Benie Des Dieux last year when she did a note perfect Annie Power impersonation, falling with the race in the bag. She'll make amends this year in an even weaker race, Honeysuckle 2nd and torn between Stormy Ireland and Yorkshire's own Lady Buttons for the other place. Lady B won me a lot in the winter but might not cut it away from Donny.

          Handicaps/other races: take your pick, anything could and will win.

          Jwdd27's Day One selections in full:

          1.30 Chantry House (nb)
          2.10 Notebook (nap)
          2.50 Cepage
          3.30 Supasundae
          4.10 Benie des Dieux
          4.50 Trainwreck
          5.30 Forza Milan

          Good luck.
          Last edited by jwdd27; 09-03-2020, 21:50.

          Comment


            #6
            Thanks for the tips jwdd27. I still feel rotten that I insulted you like I did last year so will put £1 on the nose for all of your tips. When Cheltenham has finished I'll put the accumulated winnings (we hope) into the animal charity that my wife and I are close to. Hope that you approve of this and hope your punts prove to be winners. Again, apologies for the insults last year and I hope you take this post in the spirit it's intended for. Thanks again.

            Comment


              #7
              Thanks a lot Foxy, I was going to add some sort of "please can we not fall out about animal welfare and/or gambling" coda to my opening post but decided against it.

              I wholeheartedly approve of your gesture, although I'm not sure if my tips will swell the coffers that much, the thing that makes the sport so great imo is that I could write another preview completely discounting all of my picks (Supasundae is 10 years old, ffs!), and making a compelling case for all the horses I've slagged off (Shiskin is absolutely top drawer, he beat a 139 and a 141 by 11 lengths without clipping a hurdle), and it would still read as if I knew what I was talking about. It's all about how the form and evidence resonates with the individual.
              The 2.50, 3.30, 4.50 and 5.30 bets should be 50p e/w for a better chance of getting some cash in, but as you wish.

              And don't feel bad about last year, all forgotten, and as I intimated privately, I should consider my audience a bit better in these matters and maybe not discuss horse fatalities and gambling losses in the same breath, when people might not recognise it as a black humour coping mechanism.

              Now to try and get some sleep, I've got a "Henry Hill in Goodfellas on the day of his arrest" day tomorrow, as I need to cram a whole week off's worth of errands and personal admin into the time before 1.30. First stop the newsagent. The gambling pensioners around here are keen and get in early for their Racing Post. Don't make me walk to Sainsbury's Mr Aslam!

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by jwdd27 View Post
                Day One "Champions Day"

                My favourite day of the festival, and the day I go and see the years that I go (not this year).

                The roar when the Supreme goes off is something to behold, except for last year when it false started (there'll be lots of those this year, the starters have got a lot fussier).

                Feature races:
                Supreme Novices Hurdle (1.30)
                Some years this will be a great race, I was there when Altior won it, with Buveur D'Air, Min and a good few other future Graded winners in behind.
                Other years it can not point to anything at all, last year I saw Klassical Dream look very impressive, but he's gone on to shit the bed this season, and the favourites (Angel's Breath, Al Dancer) haven't progressed much either, although Fakir d'Oudairies still has time on his side.
                This year I don't like Shishkin or Asterion, both look impressive but Shishkin hasn't beaten anything good, Asterion jumps right, and neither have been to Cheltenham before. I like Chantry House (winner at Chl in December) for the win and Captain Guinness (Blackmore) to nick a place.

                Champion Hurdle (3.30)
                As KGR alludes to, a lot of experts suggest it's very weak, which some others have suggested that just means it's competitive and there's not an obvious winner.
                Again I don't like the favourites, Epatante has done well at other tracks, but this time last year finished 9th behind some absolute rubbish in a very weak Mares Novices. Pentland won a weak Triumph last year and won't stay in the mud. Cilaos Emery lacks any real Cheltenham/British form. I'm edging towards the perpetually underestimated multiple Grade 1 winner Supasundae at a decent price (10/1). He will enjoy the slog and will be there at the finish. Silver Streak looks tasty to place at 20/1.

                Arkle (2.10)
                I'm all about Notebook, which I think will win with something to spare. More experienced (and in stronger races) than Brewin'Upastorm. I like Fakir but not in Notebook's class. I think Maire Binrigh will run the legs off most of them from the front and should stay in the frame at a decent 12/1.

                Mares' Hurdle (4.10)
                I was standing right in front of Benie Des Dieux last year when she did a note perfect Annie Power impersonation, falling with the race in the bag. She'll make amends this year in an even weaker race, Honeysuckle 2nd and torn between Stormy Ireland and Yorkshire's own Lady Buttons for the other place. Lady B won me a lot in the winter but might not cut it away from Donny.

                Handicaps/other races: take your pick, anything could and will win.

                Jwdd27's Day One selections in full:

                1.30 Chantry House (nb)
                2.10 Notebook (nap)
                2.50 Cepage
                3.30 Supasundae
                4.10 Benie des Dieux
                4.50 Trainwreck
                5.30 Forza Milan

                Good luck.
                Thanks youth.

                Comment


                  #9
                  My optimism and excitement are as high as any year, so I'm in for a Lucky 15 E/W on
                  1.30 Captain Guiness
                  2.10 Maire Banrigh
                  2.50 Who Dares Wins
                  3.30 Silver Streak

                  As always, I never win a fucking thing at Cheltenham, so if any of those are your picks, change your mind pdq.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    With Skybet doing their “up to £10 cashback on the first race” I’ve gone with Asterion Forlonge in that knowing I won’t lose anything.

                    I’ve then done a 5 race accumulator on the following:

                    14:10 – The Notebook
                    15:30 – Cilaos Emery
                    16:10 – Benie Des Dieux
                    16:50 – Trainwreck
                    17:30 – Carefully Selected

                    A slight irony in that last one as none of my picks are carefully selected and are 90% guesswork as the festival is the only time I have a bet on the gee-gees.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Altior is out of the Queen Mother race tomorrow with shin splint problems. A great horse to watch, always a pleasure to see it race.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by johnr View Post
                        My optimism and excitement are as high as any year, so I'm in for a Lucky 15 E/W on
                        1.30 Captain Guiness
                        2.10 Maire Banrigh
                        2.50 Who Dares Wins
                        3.30 Silver Streak

                        As always, I never win a fucking thing at Cheltenham, so if any of those are your picks, change your mind pdq.
                        So far, one brought down, one fell over, when both were looking good for at least a place. Bit gutted.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          This is going well I see…

                          Comment


                            #14
                            I've got Lord Du Mesnil in the 5.30, currently at 4-1.
                            Last edited by Paul S; 10-03-2020, 17:36.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Paul S View Post
                              I've got Lord Du Mesnil in the 5.30, currently at 4-1.
                              Well done!

                              That counts as a result for the otf collective today doesn't it?

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Day 1 review.

                                Well. Sobering, depressing, and disappointing about sums it up. I did at least prove my point, two horses I slagged off (Shishkin and Epatante) won impressively, Notebook was pretty much a no-show, Cepage ran a grand race, but it turned out that he didn't relish the extra furlongs that his connections thought he might. Didn't relish it at all, hit 2 miles and clocked off.

                                So of my selections there was some e/w in the first and last (if your bookie was paying 4), and that's it. Of course my wife perused the Racing Post for about 5 minutes without checking such things as odds, form or anything meaningful, and came up with two winners and two seconds.
                                Which is good, because that's the money I'll play with tomorrow.

                                At least my De Bromhead bet is looking OK, 2 winners, same as Henderson.

                                Onwards, upwards.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Anyone got any stupid ideas for tomorrow then?

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    I've got loads of stupid ideas Guy, but a bit wary of sharing them...

                                    Having to do my form reading tonight, then make my bet online on a 8.30 train to Southampton, cos I'm in a meeting all day. Will avoid any news, but then have friends coming round for dinner. Which means I'll be watching ITV Hub pissed, stoned and bleary-eyed some time after 11pm tomorrow. Might be the best state in which to do it.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Day Two - "Ladies' Day"

                                      Bit sexist that, I wonder if in future it might become "fashion" or "dress up" day. It's not a huge thing at Cheltenham anyway, the wind and rain usually put paid to anything too spectacular.

                                      Wednesday looks on paper to be a day for favourites, which means it pays to get your bet on early as the bookies will be running scared tomorrow and will shorten everything up to cover losses, especially from multiples. You should get best odds guaranteed so you don't lose out it if it drifts and wins as Sishkin did, and if you back the favs you should definitely link them up to maximise returns.

                                      Feature races:

                                      1.30 Ballymore Novices Hurdle
                                      Envoi Allen is already odds on, won the Bumper (flat race) here in style last year and has continued in the same vein this year over obstacles. There's always a chance that the big Irish banker of the week gets over-hyped but not in this case. The main opposition is Sporting John and the confusingly similar The Big Breakaway and The Big Getaway, all three are good horses but are stepping up in grade today. I'd suggest Easywork is good value for a place at 22/1, with decent enough form in testing ground and Rachael Blackmore taking the ride.

                                      2.10 RSA Chase
                                      I'm going for my boy De Bromhead and my girl Blackmore in this one. Minella Indo won the Albert Bartlett Hurdle at 50/1 here last year, but is no outsider now chasing and is 4 out of 5 over 3 miles. The main opposition is Champ who has developed some serious reliability issues this season, nearly running out in one race, only just recovering to win, before a heavy fall last time. Copperhead also looks dangerous, but he's younger, and Ascot form rarely translates to Cheltenham to my mind. Having dismissed Copperhead for being too young, I'm picking another 6-y-o for the e/w long shot. Easy Game has good form over 2m5 but I'll have to trust Mullins that he stays 3, but why not go with my gut, my brain's not too hot is it?

                                      3.30 Champion Chase
                                      It doesn't seem to get called The Queen Mother much anymore, probably for the best. My favourite race at the festival, 2m chasing is what it's all about. Sadly despite my remote veterinary advice, Altior is out. He would have won, but in his absence Defi De Seuil will win. Chacun Pour Soi has beaten Defi once, but that was in Ireland, Chacun has never even been to Cheltenham, whereas Defi is 6/8 here, and 2/2 at the festival. Only seven runners so not worth an e/w punt as the two mentioned should be 1 and 2.

                                      4.10 Cross Country
                                      Trainers aren't usually renowned for being too bullish about their horse's prospects, so Gordon Elliott's honesty was refreshing when he said Tiger Roll would only have to be at 75-80% to win this.
                                      Last year he won by 22 lengths without a great deal of apparent effort, he was crossing the line as the main field (of top quality cross country specialists) were only just rejoining the course. Easysland has been talked up as decent, and won on this course impressively, but Tiger will be far too good. This race is always good for e/w punts, and it looks appealing this year, bookies should pay four places and at the moment the third favourite is 16/1 so I'll be backing 2 or 3 outside of Tiger. That third favourite is our old friend Might Bite, a very likeable character who I'll back for old times sake but who lacks any real cross country experience. Surprised that de Boinville is taking the ride rather than an amateur specialist. I'll look to the French for my longshots, Arlequin D'Alliers is one of Emmanuel Clayeux's gang, unknown quantity and 40/1 but Clayeux knows his shit in this discipline and Derek O'connor is in the saddle.

                                      5.30 Champion Bumper
                                      Technically it's a Grade 1, but it's a flat race for young horses and there are 23 of them. Mullins has a hot favourite in Appreciate It, which I don't fancy, especially at 15/8. I like Panic Attack at a decent 12/1, Ask A Honey Bee at a big 33/1, and Audacity at a huge 66/1, but stick a pin would be the advice.

                                      Handicaps: The Coral Cup has 26 runners. The Boodles/Fred Winter has 22. Steer clear of favourites in these.


                                      In summary, the horses I have slagged off above who you should definitely now back are: The Big Breakaway, Champ, Chacun Pour Soi, Easysland and Appreciate It. I'll probably put a little Lucky 31 on that lot just to double jinx myself.

                                      jwdd27's Second Day Savers:

                                      1.30 Envoi Allen (nb)
                                      2.10 Minella Indo
                                      2.50 Protektorat e/w
                                      3.30 Defi de Seuil (treble)
                                      4.10 Tiger Roll (nap)
                                      4.50 Theatre of War e/w
                                      5.30 Panic Attack e/w

                                      Good luck

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Aye

                                        The only two I'd mention are Defi de Seuil and Tiger Roll

                                        And the value ain't great

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          I've gone all in for outsiders today on Lucky 15 e/w - 1.30 Easyworks 2.10 Slate House 2.50 Traffic Fluide (only cos you can get 6 places on Betfred) 4.10 Arlequin d'allier (I think I may be reading the same analyses as you on this one jwdd). According to Betfred, I'm due around £212000 if they all win , which is nice.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Two winners for me yesterday - Shishkin and Ravenhill. I'm mostly on value bets today for my bumper each-way Heinz - 114 bets at 10p per go. I'm not touching the 4.50.

                                            1.30 The Big Getaway 11/1
                                            2.10 Copperhead 5/1
                                            2.50 Franco De Port 9/1
                                            3.30 Sceau Royal 18/1
                                            4.10 Easysland 4/1
                                            5.30 Israel Champ 10/1

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Here’s my pin in the paper guesses for today then:

                                              Using the aforementioned cash back promotion I’ve gone for a single in the first.
                                              13:30 – Sizing John – 7/2

                                              Then a 6 way accumulator that I’ve spunked 25p e/w on in order to win £967.
                                              14:10 – Minella Indo – 10/3
                                              14:50 – Franco De Port – 9/1
                                              15:30 – Defi Du Seuil – 6/5
                                              16:10 – Tiger Roll – 5/6
                                              16:50 – Palladium – 7/1
                                              17:30 – Appreciate It – 7/4

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Genuine question (I've done a bit of reading and still don't quite get it) - why do people take an accumulator (where all horses have to win) rather than a Heinz/Lucky 15/31etc (where you can get a return on 1+ bet), and thus retain a bit of interest? I think the answer must be staring me in the face, but I'm missing something.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  For me, 10p on a single winner at even 9/1 means I only get a quid back, and it doesn't cover the cost of the bet. So I tend to go for a Yankee, Canadian or Heinz because if two horses win (the minimum winning bet), it's actually worth winning.

                                                  Comment

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