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    Originally posted by danielmak View Post
    I mean line to line hitting. The Braves scored 1 run from a blast in this game. All the others were line drives sprayed all over the field.
    I know what you meant.

    You claimed that they should have won the series. In order for them to do that, they needed to overcome a 11 run deficit last night.

    Reading it back, I now realise that you were speaking in future tense. There is a rather high probability that that eventually comes true.

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      I had to read back as well. I was talking about the Dodgers needing to spray the ball originally. They just didn't want to do that. Again, I get it. The pitcher isn't pitching to help the opponent hit line drives.

      I expect the Dodgers will do well tomorrow because I think May will pitch well. I think he's their best pitcher right now given Bueheler's health. But I don't see the Dodgers getting out of this series. The only bright side is that if the WS is Braves-Astros, I can spend my time doing something else. Haha.

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        The absence of any off days is really messing with team's pitching plans,

        No one built a roster for this, particularly after Washington won a title with only three starters. Instead, we have the first eight or nine guys who took the mound in San Diego all being rookies.

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          Actually, I think I said this during one of our earlier exchanges about Dodgers pitching melting down in past seasons. I felt like the Dodgers were ready provided Beuhler's blister healed. At that time Kershaw was very healthy. Had a great season. He really isn't a post-season pitcher. He is either great or shit. But the thing that distinguished this year from the past few is that May and Gonsolin have been amazing. Urias has been great other than during the first inning during the season. Obviously he had run support Wednesday night but many pitchers have screwed up big leads. Maybe not 11 run leads, but he could have quickly allowed the Braves to gain momentum. In years past Maeda was pushed to the pen and the other starters beyond Kershaw and Greinke could never go more than 4 or 5 innings because Friedman loves guys with good analytics and poor health: Hill, Anderson, McCarthy, Kazmir, Wood.

          The problem for me is that Roberts used May in short relief already. I said to some friends that had Roberts not done that, once Kershaw went out, May could have started. Then Gonsolin could have gone tonight. Then Kershaw tomorrow night after another day rest. Even with Beuhler's blister, the Dodgers still have 5 excellent starters. So, they're built for it, but just not living up to the in-season ERAs. And the bullpen, which was excellent, has come undone. Again, the no rest days meant Roberts couldn't pull a Brandon Morrow redux. The pitchers just need to pitch up to their ability. Padres were screwed because if injuries but the Dodgers still held those power bats except during one game (or really one half inning). I don't know if Braves bats are better on paper than Padres bats, but Dodgers pen isn't handling the Braves.

          Obviously I watch the Dodgers more than other teams but I can say objectively they are probably one of two or three playoff teams that didn't necessarily have to use a bullpen day. Perhaps the Reds were another. I didn't watch Cleveland enough to know about their starting pitching after they traded Clevinger. But the rest as you say, UA, are having to rely on the Ray's model.

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            Fully expect the Dodgers to win today, then epically shit the bed in Game 6. I'm tired of this year after year, but I'm mostly angry with myself for expecting that anything will change.

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              Telling

              https://twitter.com/bawfuls/status/1317138589386379264

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                The brutal thing about looking at these games lined up is the amount of runs the Braves have scored in every game except game 3. The pen is getting pummeled. Given the results during the season, and the shorter season, these guys should be doing better. Kenley should be the only concern.

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                  I don't have the same type of breakdown for Kershaw, but when I think about the quantity of starts he has had in the post-season, I start to think about other pitchers that I would identify as great post-season pitchers. Andy Pettite comes to mind:

                  I can't find the total stats for Kershaw but his post-season era is 4.31 (as UA posted above, he's also getting credit for runs against when relievers let those runs in, which boosts his era--not saying that should change).

                  Pettitte was 19–10 with a 3.83 ERA and 173 strikeouts in the postseason (1995–2003, 2005, 2007, 2009–2010), with the most postseason wins in MLB history. He also holds the all-time postseason record for most starts (42) and innings pitched in the postseason (263). [wikipedia]

                  Kershaw has sucked by comparison to his regular season (2.43 and the number 1 adjusted era of pitchers with 2k innings of all time). Pettite's stats aren't great but his wins in big games and the number rings is great.

                  But man, that image of him diving and missing the ball on that infield chopper last night summarized his career. Roberts needed to pull Kershaw right then. First, it was the third time through the order so bullpen needed to be ready. Then send catcher out to stall. Then Prior out to stall. If any of this was needed because Acuna being examined by trainer actually created a stall. Go straight to the pen. Maybe Graderol is better. Maybe not. But only 1 run is on Kershaw at this point. Roberts has to know the history. Stupid fluky plays or homeruns are the undoing of Kershaw.

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                    I didn't watch the first two innings very closely since I was on video chat with some friends but I thought pulling May that early was going to be cause problems. Dodgers bats heated up enough and pitching held on to quiet the Atlanta bats. Ozuna's base running foolishness probably tipped the game. I don't expect the Dodgers will win two more but I'm glad they are still in it. The bullpen looks too shaky, but luckily Atlanta's bullpen also looks shaky. I think the rest did Treinen some good. He wasn't great the other day but he's be amazing this year.

                    In the other series. Wow. The Rays have melted down. They are home run or nothing. I think they need to switch up the lineup a bit. Need to go with higher average guys versus messing with leftie/rightie matchups. But man, if they lose this one, that's very rough. I know Houston was hitting, but just not scoring runs so eventually that was going to even out, but Rays have gone cold against rookie pitchers.

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                      I'm shocked that the Dodgers win again. Obviously, I believe in this team, but the Braves have been so good. Kenley looked great. I'm hoping for a return to the early part of the season when he was pitcher of the week or the month (can't remember which).

                      If Roberts uses Kershaw tomorrow in any inning other than the first, he better be fired.

                      Now on to the Rays, who hopefully will regain some of their nerve and get those bats going.

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                        I say this almost every year. I have no idea why managers are in love with having starters come in as relievers during the playoffs. Houston and Boston both had plans with tandem starters, which is what Houston is doing tonight. But TBS just showed Greinke down in the pen. Look, the Houston pen has been solid. Greinke has probably relieved a handful of times in his life. And Greinke is no longer a lights out pitcher; he's still very good, but probably not as good for one inning or 1 1/3, 1 2/3 as what's already in the pen. If this goes to extras then going to Greinke makes sense, but not during a regular 9.

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                          As a general rule, starters are better pitchers.

                          That is why they are starters, and why managers are tempted to use them in relief in Games Seven. They (like me, and the starters themselves/ have also seen this usage pattern for their entire lives.

                          That doesn't mean that a starter will definitely be more effective in relief than a reliever, but it isn't at all surprising that managers are tempted.

                          I'm glad to see that you didn't give up on the Dodgers for hitting those two homers.

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                            #raysup

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                              Your nephew is having a pretty decent sporting year

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                                I prefer it when the homers follow some doubles. Haha. Then the batters stop swinging for the fences.

                                In general, starters are better pitchers for sure. But in general, relievers have more swing and miss, which is needed (esp. if men are on base). And most starters aren't used to coming into a game when someone is on base. Granted, most smart managers bring starters in during a clean inning. Although Anderson, for example, had a rough ride against the Astros, going into that series it would be crazy to take even the best starters over him for a single inning. His era was below 1. The value of a starter for me out of the pen is long relief. But inning for inning, relievers know how to warm up, know how to come in at any point. At the end of the day, as long as I'm not seeing Kersahw come in, I'm ok.

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                                  Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                  Your nephew is having a pretty decent sporting year
                                  Yeah. So far so good. And the Rowdies made the USL semis.

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                                    Mookie Betts, wowza

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                                      It would be sort of remarkable if, despite the expanded playoffs and the bubble for the last two rounds, the WS ends up being the teams that had the best records in their respective leagues anyway.

                                      Likewise, neither the NBA or NHL playoffs ended up with an outcome that would have been at all surprising had everything been normal.

                                      Arguably, the Bruins should have done a bit better and the Lakers were not the best regular season team. But they were among them, and when you factor in playoff experience, etc, their victories were not really an upset by any stretch.

                                      It’s unclear if the bubble favored younger teams or if that really matters anyway. At times, the Lightning looked worn out against the Islanders, but seemed to be the fresher team vs Dallas. Mentally, the bubble must have been exhausting, but traveling is probably more exhausting physically.

                                      I got the sense that observers thought the quality of play in the NBA playoffs suggested the lack of travel was helping overall.

                                      And I suppose being in the bubble helped the Lightning avoid the constant media questions that they would have faced about failing so badly the year before, etc. Perhaps that helped the Lakers too, as they probably get the most media attention.

                                      In baseball, not being booed everywhere probably helped the Astros. Not being constantly asked “is this the year?” has probably helped the Dodgers.

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                                        I was just going to make your first observation

                                        i also admit that I was sort of hoping that Roberts brought Kershaw in to pitch the ninth, just to see danielmak's reaction

                                        i am not always the person I aspire to be

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                                          I can’t believe these guys. Let’s make it 2 titles in two weeks

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                                            Hearty congratulations to danielmak and Inca, and even Ray, who has a cap.

                                            Should be a fun Series

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                                              I'm elated. I didn't think this was going to happen. Bats and bullpen had been too inconsistent. I saw Kershaw stretching in the pen, and though we are cooked. But Urias has been amazing in the playoffs. I felt like we could grind out at bats and wear down Atlanta's pitching but didn't know if the stranded runners would just keep happening. Trying to step back, it was a great game but as a fan too close for my comfort.

                                              I tried searching for the last time the two top teams played in the WS and got nothing. Maybe someone else knows this, but I'm really excited for this world series. If Rays get some mojo back, it should be a thriller. Dodgers should have a slight advantage with the third consecutive series in this stadium. It's a new location for Rays since Rangers weren't playing here last season. Mookie's understanding of where to play is not only a product of his skill but also getting to know the wall.

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                                                I take some relief that, should the Dodgers lose, it won't be the Astros celebrating.

                                                Unusual situation that one city will be guaranteed to have a championship double.

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                                                  Has there every been a world series with such a wide disparity in payroll?
                                                  Perhaps the last one the Rays were in?

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                                                    Roughly four times is a lot

                                                    https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll

                                                    I tend to think the disparity to the Phillies wasn't that high

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