Can't see the Woods

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Pity, I was hoping to see him in the flesh for the first time at Birkdale next month. It's not made me reconsider going to the tournament, but it's still a shame. Whoever wins this, and the USPGA, will have a kind of an asterisk against their names in the record books - "won a major while the clear world number one was not playing".

Mind you, if someone else from the top four or five - Mickelson, perhaps, or Ogilvy - wins both, in Woods' absence, it's still possible Woods won't be world number one by the end of this season. With the way the new ranking system devalues achievements more than three months old, by next year Woods' current massive lead in those standings (he's currently on more than double the points of anyone else) could have dwindled to almost nothing. It's not impossible that Woods could yet finish this year not even ranked number 2, a situation he's not found himself in since he won the US Masters in 1997.

When he comes back, he might have had to tone down the massive swing he's got, too, to relieve pressure on that knee. He might - might - not be the same player ever again. Maybe Nicklaus's career records will be safe after all, although Woods should still have another 13 or 14 years left to hunt down the 4 majors he still needs.

[Mighty Mudhsuden]

Can't see the Woods

Nicklaus didn't play with magic clubs, though.

[Outside Agent]

Can't see the Woods

Tiger plays with the same kind of clubs that his competitors do. It was the same for Nicklaus in his day. Neither player had any distinct advantage over the field.

The asterisk comment is very true. Whoever wins the British Open and US PGA will be regarded as having won a 'soft' major.

[Outside Agent]

Can't see the Woods

and shouldn't the title be "Can't see the Woods for the knees"?

[San Bernardhinault]

Can't see the Woods

The cynical amongst us thought, when Woods was limping, "My, he's got a very muscly upper body. How convenient to be taking a couple of months off just when drug testing is about to come into golf."

Perhaps that was a little unfair.

[Guest]

Can't see the Woods

Tiger can rest up now and count all the money

The other top players in world golf need to realise that they are the ones that are being laughed at

a one legged man beat them all last week

Not one of them has had the balls to go out and beat Tiger Woods in the last round of a major

never has he been beaten while leading going into the final round of a major

This really is a sad state of affairs , sport after all is about competition

world golf is about as competitive as the Zimbabwe presidential election at the moment

You can list the names off Els,Goosen, Casey, Donald, Garcia, Lefty,

All millionaires , all supremely talented, yet none of them have learned to deal with the pressure on a regular basis

Maybe Tigers self imposed absence might just trigger a new found fighting spirit, but somehow i would doubt it

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Can't see the Woods

You'd have to be very, very cynical to infer any drug-taking on Woods' part (although you're right, he is, suddenly, rippling). There's just little point, in golf, is all - the biceps play hardly part at in a golf swing, except possibly in chopping the ball through long rough, and even there, the really key muscles are in the forearms and wrists, and I don't think steroids would help much with developing those, would they? Jack Nicklaus apparently used to take a big broadsheet newspaper like the Times and roll it up, sheet by sheet, into tiny balls with the palms of each hand, to develop his forearm and wrist muscles. I tried that when I read about it; it bloody hurts after about four or five sheets, and I got shouted out by my Mum for leaving black print-ink handprints all down the hallway later on.

[Mighty Mudhsuden]

Can't see the Woods

Impact Substitute wrote:

Tiger plays with the same kind of clubs that his competitors do. It was the same for Nicklaus in his day. Neither player had any distinct advantage over the field.

Good point well made.

[ursus arctos]

Can't see the Woods

Indeed, though I do think that there is something to the assertion that Tiger's dominance is primarily based on his distance off the tee, which is in part due to his equipment advantage. He doesn't have an appreciable advantage over his contemporaries, but the courses that he and Nicklaus have both played regularly now play differently than they did in Jack's day. Put another way, if Tiger was playing with persimmon woods and Wilson Staffs, he would still be 20 yards longer than many of his rivals off the tee, but that 20 yards wouldn't put him as close to the hole as he gets now. And anytime one introduces more long iron shots into a round, one tends to introduce more risk and uncertainty (unless one is Hale Irwin).

BTW, has anyone here actually played a round with Wilson Staffs (which had a monopoly share on the Tour in Nicklaus' heyday?); they are beautifully simple and efficient tools, but completely unforgiving of mistakes. One of my more humbling experiences in golf.

[Mighty Mudhsuden]

Can't see the Woods

I've got Wilson Fat Shafts and I think they're great.

[evilC]

Can't see the Woods

Anyone mention this article yet?

[Uncle Ethan]

Can't see the Woods

Better clubs doesn't minimise Woods' achievements does it? That is like saying Schumacher doesn't measure up to Stirling Moss because he has a better car.

If you were comparing Woods' driving length with Nicklaus then the quality of the equipment, especially golf balls, would come into play. As it is everyone at that level has access to pretty much the same equipment.

As for muscling up being a sign of drug taking, I have muscled up enormously in the past few months. Two visits a week to the gym and no steroids in sight.

However, if steroids make a beer gut disappear, where do I sign up?

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Can't see the Woods

Beginning to turn my mind to the odds on this one, and as expected, with Woods absent, the book is wide open.

Current odds at William Hill:

Ernie Els 12-1
Padraig Harrington 14-1
Sergio Garcia 14-1
Lee Westwood 16-1
Justin Rose 16-1
Phil Mickelson 16-1
Vijay Singh 25-1
Adam Scott 25-1
Geoff Ogilvy 25-1
Robert Karlsson 25-1
Retief Goosen 25-1
Jim Furyk 25-1
Andres Romero 33-1
Stewart Cink 33-1

Virtually impossible to pick a clear favourite out of that lot. Pretty much all of them have been in the top ten of one of the last 3 Opens, with the exceptions of Mickelson (who you can never completely write off), Westwood (who had such a good US Open and will be home favourite) and Rose (who will be backed by a lot of people who remember his 3rd-place finish as an Amateur at Birkdale ten years ago).

I've got a sneaking feeling this could be another of those years when a complete outsider comes through the field. In fact, I might have a check on Ben Curtis's form - he finished 8th last year, and might just become this decade's Dave Stockton or Lee Janzen (winning 2 majors despite hardly winning anything else).

[Gangster Octopus]

Can't see the Woods

It'll be a journeyman from the US Tour. Again.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Can't see the Woods

The greatest story ever, in sports history, is bubbling under ...

I would literally wet myself with joy if Van De Velde won next week.

[El Nacnud]

Can't see the Woods

My clubs cost a grand total of £3.

[Outside Agent]

Can't see the Woods

Van de Velde on the 18th at Carnoustie was one of sports greatest ever moments. I still remember watching it in the pub after being at Croke Park for that year's Leinster Hurling Final. I must have been the only person watching it up until the 18th, then as events unfolded, the whole pub has fallen silent, the volume was hired up and there was intermittent bursts of exasperation as Van de Velde went about his business. Car crash television meets sporting drama.

That performance at Carnoustie earned Van de Velde enough points to make the Ryder Cup team, where he played one game and lost. I hope for his well-being that he has a good perspective on life.

That said, Harrington almost repeated Van de Velde's travails last year.

[San Bernardhinault]

Can't see the Woods

I played 18 holes today. I've never played in the rain before. It's a very, very wet experience. I wouldn't much recommend it to anyone.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Can't see the Woods

Andy North is another 2 hit wonder. Won only 3 PGA tournaments, including the US Open twice.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Can't see the Woods

Romero and Westwood were both on form today, from what I saw of it. Think I might watch them closely over the next couple of days. And Thomas Levet - who only lost on sudden death a few years ago to Els - shot a 68, too.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Can't see the Woods

Very interesting draw for the first round. The R&A have grouped all of the world's top twenty (the ones that are playing) into two distinct "halves", one lot (Rose, Ogilvy, Harrington, Singh, Stenson, Els, Westwood, Choi and Mickelson) going out in groups between 7.30 and 9.30 - pretty much one after the other - and the other half (Sabbatini, Furyk, Stricker, Scott,Cink, Immelman, Kim, Jimenez and Garcia) going out similarly one after the other between 12.30 and 2.30.

It will guarantee that viewers tuning in at breakfast time will see some top players playing the first, at lunchtime will see those players finishing and some leading players just starting out, and that by tea time the second group of leading players will be heading back up the final holes.

I like the look of two of the groups featuring non-"top" players, though, on the basis that sometimes a whole trio spur each other on to play really well. at 8.42, David Howell, Andres Romero and JB Holmes (the Yank who hits the ball about 400 yards) go out together, inbetween the groups featuring Els and Westwood. And at 9.30, following Mickelson's group, Boo Weekley, Colin Montgomerie and Mike Weir are out.

All six of those could be each-way tips, for me. For a late finishing group to produce a "surprise" first-round leader, too, look out for the group going out at 2.40 - especially if any wind during the day is dying down - Stuart Appleby, Brandt Snedecker and Ross Fisher.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Can't see the Woods

Fucking weather. Rain for the two days I'm here.

Fucking fuck's sake.

[Outside Agent]

Can't see the Woods

I'm punting on Ernie Els. Countless top five finishes in the British Open, comfortable on any course across the UK, I can see him winning.

Justin Leonard is in great form, and plays disciplined, regulation golf. If/When conditions get tough, I can see him coping better than most. A previous winner too. I'll back him to be the leading American.

Retief Goosen has played his best golf this year in the majors and leading PGA events. I can see that trend continuing. Worth an each way bet.

My '100/1 or over' bet will be on K.J.Choi. He tends to put together a couple of decent rounds in every major, usually making a move in the leaderboard. He's bound to eventually last the weekend, so I'll have an each way flutter.

It's a wide open (pun not intended) competition with no Tiger Woods, but it's going to be something of a downer without him.

[Commodore]

Can't see the Woods

Westwood is a good shout; his consistency in majors over the last 15 months has been excellent. He's a decent up and down player but his putting is his weakness. If he had a six footer to roll in for the title I wouldn't bet on him.

Garcia seems to enjoy links golf and despite his setback last year he just might have the game to do it this time round. Jiminez may also have a bit of self belief after his win at Wentworth. Romero also impressed last year, but only after the winds died down on the last day at Carnoustie.

Trevor Immelman showed the temperament needed to win at Augusta and is the strongest of the South African contingent. I think Els may struggle with the wind and Goosen is too unpredictable.

Stateside, Mickelson will do well to make the cut. But I have a sneaky suspicion that Hunter Mahan may produce something here. He is probably the toughest competitor that the US has right now.

Either way it is wide open, with the weather not looking too handy the cut could be set as high as 6 or 7 over. This will give the chance for a few dark horses to come through, one of whom just might go all the way.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Can't see the Woods

They've set Birkdale up as a par 70 this year - that's a par 70 with 2 499-yard par 4s, and a closing par 4 of 483 yards with out of bounds to the right, thick rough down the left and virtually any tee shot landing between 270 and 300 yards in the sand. Plus, I can confirm that it's absolutely pissing down, the wind's up too, and has been since it woke me up at about 5 this morning. Anything in the rough today is not going to come out again without a bit of luck. Ironic that everyone's saying this is the "asterisk" Open, because in all honesty these are precisely the conditions Tiger Woods is neutralised by anyway. He may well have played and finished well down the field, sighing and cursing at himself, like in 2001 and 2002.

If conditions don't ease up later on, scores are going to be high. Even a 68 or 69 will be a superhuman effort from someone, and probably one of those rounds that relies on as few as 23 or 24 putts.