Ashes to Ashes

[Satchmo Distel]

They probably need Stokes, Bairstow and Buttler to get around 180 between them, which seems unlikely based on form and technique.

[diggedy derek]

You're right in part, but credit to the Australians giving them absolutely nothing in the first four overs to force the indecision.

[ad hoc]

I really (really) hate to say I told you so

[Satchmo Distel]

Lyon to Root, OUT, down the track, gone!

JE Root c Warner b Lyon 77 (205b 7x4 0x6) SR: 37.56

To be fair, the Aussies earned that by not giving any runs away in the first 20 mins; piling on pressure; but Root should be good enough to just give the first hour and half to the bowlers and wait it out.

[diggedy derek]

I think the stats show that around four per cent of chases over 300 are successful. They've made some decent headway already, so I'd put it about a ten per cent chance of winning, like jwd. But England are SO BAD at starting again the next morning that I can't see it.

[Ray de Galles]

So, England need 203 to win and have seven wickets in hand. It's doable, isn't it? If root can stay in and someone else gets a big score. i have day 4 tickets so am keeping my fingers crossed.

Er, today is day four!

[longeared]

They've definitely got a chance - they don't have to rush the scoring, it'll be hot, it's still only a fourth day wicket and in any case the Headingley Test pitch has had a modern tendency to flatten out as the game goes on. In the West Indies Test a couple of years back England were three down at the start of the fourth day and put another 319 runs on before the declaration - so there is some recent precedent there for them.

[jwdd27]

I'd put England's chances at about 1 in 10, reliant on Stokes and Root digging in again this morning and edging the deficit to under 100, but even then I can see the rest just folding, unless they also dig in rather than go straight for their T20/ODI repertoire.

At least yesterday was a reminder that test cricket is about not losing your wicket, not scoring runs. It's meant to be boring.

[Sporting]

Yes, I can still see Australia winning by at least 100 runs.

[ad hoc]

Root always gets out early in the morning after he's got in the day before. Always. I'll be stunned if he's not out by the 6th over this morning.

[Satchmo Distel]

I think they have maybe a 1 in 5 chance but they have to get through the 2nd new ball before it becomes more than that.

[Jon]

So, England need 203 to win and have seven wickets in hand. It's doable, isn't it? If root can stay in and someone else gets a big score. i have day 4 tickets so am keeping my fingers crossed.

[The_Purple_Cow]

So if Foakes is a better batter and a better keeper....

[diggedy derek]

I'm sympathetic to that point of view. But does that matter as much as it used to? It's very rare indeed to have a keeper standing up to medium pacers these days. Pitches are probably a bit less unpredictable. Bairstow's catching has generally seemed pretty good to me for the past year or so, and he's not costing as many runs as his used to. That said, Foakes is probably a better batter at the moment.

[The_Purple_Cow]

Ben Foakes is a proper wicketkeeper. Bairstow and Buttler will never be wicketkeepers, they just don't have the skill set and there's no sign of them attaining that skill set any time soon.

[George C.]

If only they'd picked a proper Englishman, they might do a little better.

[Satchmo Distel]

Jason Roy's graceful exit: "Fuck off!"

https://twitter.com/nickrog83/status...47000452857856

...a phrase which all England fans would repeat back to him.

[Satchmo Distel]

In England the shine will stay on the new ball longer due to lush outfields.

[diggedy derek]

Is Bairstow a bad keeper these days? I find it hard to remember many dropped catches.

I'm all for specialist wicket keepers in principle. However, I'd use Bairstow as evidence that you can make a fairly effective keeper out of a decent fielder.

That's not to defend his brittle batting.

[Sporting]

At what stage are batsmen seen to have negotiated the new ball? Is it 20 overs or thereabouts? Does it change with different conditions or types of ball?

One measure might be when the new ball bowlers are replaced.

[multipleman78]

At what stage are batsmen seen to have negotiated the new ball? Is it 20 overs or thereabouts? Does it change with different conditions or types of ball?

[Satchmo Distel]

359 to avoid Australia retaining the Ashes. England's record chase is 332 (1928), 2nd highest 315 (2001, dodgy declaration in dead rubber).

[Satchmo Distel]

What evidence/logic did Agnew use to back up his case, if any?

[Etienne]

Yeah, I had to turn off TMS when Agnew went on his back to the future rant. It might benefit Leicestershire, but I can't see how it would help the England test team.

[Levin]

Did I mention that we also need a proper wicket-keeper? These 'ball-stoppers-who-can-bat-a-bit' are fine for T20 or ODI's but just don't work at test level.

That ship has sailed I think. Is Jack Russell the last to hold down a place in the England team?