So here we go with the big loop once again. The defending champion will start the Tour with the strongest squad dedicated to getting him safely round until he can launch his attacks, and surely that can only mean that Chris Froome and Team Sky will once again take the overall victory in .... er, pardon?
Oh yes, that's right. Froome didn't win it last year, Geraint Thomas did. And Team Sky don't exist any more either.
So this feel a bit weird, doesn't it? The goings on at Team INEOS (new name and kit - the energy/fracking company has taken over the sponsorship of what was Team Sky) have been dominating the build-up to this year's race. Initially, despite Thomas being the stronger rider at last year's race and winning the Tour, he was unlikely to be the outright leader this time - that's what they pay Chris Froome for. But Froome's horror crash that nearly killed him (he was 'lucky' to get away with multiple injuries) has meant that the team are going with 'joint leaders' in the experienced defending champion and the young Colombian star, Egan Bernal.
This has probably made more difference for Bernal than it has for Thomas. Thomas would have been a protected rider even if Froome was riding, and would have been the last one to pull on the front on the mountain stages. Bernal, on the other hand, would have been a match to burn. One of those very long matches that burns nicely for ages, but a match nonetheless. It's not unknown for the second rider in the team to win a Grand Tour. Heck, that's how Thomas did it last year, and we saw the trick repeat in May as Richard Carapaz proved stronger than Mikel Landa and went on to win the Giro d'Italia. But the third guy would never have that chance. Froome's injury has promoted Bernal from a probable yellow flame to a potential yellow jersey.
And we'd been expecting to see dominance of the time trial giants - Roglic and, especially, Dumoulin. Roglic went for the Giro and finished a creditable third. Dumoulin went for it and retired through injury. He came back in the Dauphiné, aiming for the Tour, but his knee is still not right and he misses this race.
So where does that leave us?
Well, we've got a couple of former winners - the only two, other than Froome, who are still riding - in Geraint Thomas and Vincenzo Nibali. The last time Froome failed to finish the Tour, Nibali won it handsomely. But this time he's got a Giro in his legs.
We've got loads of experienced riders who have never managed to topple Sky and Froome here: like Valverde, Quintana, Fuglsang, Porte, Bardet, Dan Martin, Pinot, Landa, Uran, Zakarin, Mollema, Kruijswijk and van Garderen. Apologies for any I missed!
Then we've got the Yateses. Both of them. Adam is the one who came fourth here a few years ago. Simon is the one who won La Vuelta last year. Runner up to him was Enric Mas, a young Spaniard of Deceuninck - Quick-Step, He's coming too.
So it's quite hard to call. But one thing we know is that INEOS will be strong and dedicated to the cause, which is going to make Thomas - at least initially - the man to beat.
Oh yes, that's right. Froome didn't win it last year, Geraint Thomas did. And Team Sky don't exist any more either.
So this feel a bit weird, doesn't it? The goings on at Team INEOS (new name and kit - the energy/fracking company has taken over the sponsorship of what was Team Sky) have been dominating the build-up to this year's race. Initially, despite Thomas being the stronger rider at last year's race and winning the Tour, he was unlikely to be the outright leader this time - that's what they pay Chris Froome for. But Froome's horror crash that nearly killed him (he was 'lucky' to get away with multiple injuries) has meant that the team are going with 'joint leaders' in the experienced defending champion and the young Colombian star, Egan Bernal.
This has probably made more difference for Bernal than it has for Thomas. Thomas would have been a protected rider even if Froome was riding, and would have been the last one to pull on the front on the mountain stages. Bernal, on the other hand, would have been a match to burn. One of those very long matches that burns nicely for ages, but a match nonetheless. It's not unknown for the second rider in the team to win a Grand Tour. Heck, that's how Thomas did it last year, and we saw the trick repeat in May as Richard Carapaz proved stronger than Mikel Landa and went on to win the Giro d'Italia. But the third guy would never have that chance. Froome's injury has promoted Bernal from a probable yellow flame to a potential yellow jersey.
And we'd been expecting to see dominance of the time trial giants - Roglic and, especially, Dumoulin. Roglic went for the Giro and finished a creditable third. Dumoulin went for it and retired through injury. He came back in the Dauphiné, aiming for the Tour, but his knee is still not right and he misses this race.
So where does that leave us?
Well, we've got a couple of former winners - the only two, other than Froome, who are still riding - in Geraint Thomas and Vincenzo Nibali. The last time Froome failed to finish the Tour, Nibali won it handsomely. But this time he's got a Giro in his legs.
We've got loads of experienced riders who have never managed to topple Sky and Froome here: like Valverde, Quintana, Fuglsang, Porte, Bardet, Dan Martin, Pinot, Landa, Uran, Zakarin, Mollema, Kruijswijk and van Garderen. Apologies for any I missed!
Then we've got the Yateses. Both of them. Adam is the one who came fourth here a few years ago. Simon is the one who won La Vuelta last year. Runner up to him was Enric Mas, a young Spaniard of Deceuninck - Quick-Step, He's coming too.
So it's quite hard to call. But one thing we know is that INEOS will be strong and dedicated to the cause, which is going to make Thomas - at least initially - the man to beat.
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