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    Rafa’s Parisian Pad

    [glances around]OK, is this the right place this time? Seems to be. Righty-o...


    Another year, another fortnight in the Bois de Boulogne. And if it’s anything like the majority of the last 15 years, it will end with a Spaniard biting a trophy that must resemble a particularly anxious dog’s chew-toy by now.

    Let’s start with the usual, the nominal R3 draws. I can’t remember which I put above the other for the Aussie, and can’t be bothered looking it up, so Gentleman first this time as I suspect I break the other way more than 50% of the time...

    Men's Singles

    Novak Djokovic Srb [1] vs Gilles Simon Fra [26]
    Denis Shapovalov Can [20] vs Borna Coric Cro [13]
    Fabio Fognini Ita [9] vs Roberto Bautista Agut Esp [18]
    Dusan Lajovic Srb [30] vs Alexander Zverev Ger [5]

    Dominic Thiem Aut [4] vs Kyle Edmund GBr [28]
    Fernando Verdasco Esp [23] vs Gael Monfils Fra [14]
    Karen Khachanov Rus [10] vs Lucas Pouille Fra [22]
    Felix Auger Aliassime Can [25] vs Juan Martin del Potro Arg [8]


    Stefanos Tsitspias Gre [6] vs Frances Tiafoe USA [32]
    Stan Wawrinka Sui [24] vs Marin Cilic Cro [11]
    Marco Cecchinato Ita [16] vs Diego Schwartman Arg [17]
    Marco Berrettini Ita [29] vs Roger Federer Sui [3]

    Kei Nishikori Jpn [7] vs Laslo Djere Srb [31]
    Alex de Minaur Aus [21] vs Daniil Medvedev Rus [12]
    Nikoloz Basilashvili Geo [15] vs Guido Pella Arg [19]
    David Goffin Bel [27] vs Rafael Nadal Esp [2]


    Women's Singles

    Naomi Osaka Jpn [1] vs Maria Sakkari Gre [29]
    Caroline Garcia Fra [24] vs Madison Keys USA [14]
    Serena Williams USA [10] vs Bianca Andreescu Can [22]
    Hsieh Su-wei Tpe [25] vs Ashleigh Barty Aus [8]

    Simona Halep Rou [3] vs Lesia Tsurenko Ukr [27]
    Daria Kasatkina Rus [21] vs Wang Qiang Chn [16]
    Aryna Sabalenka Blr [11] vs Anett Kontaveit Est [17]
    Mihaela Buzarnescu Rou [30] vs Petra Kvitova Cze [6]


    Sloane Stephens USA [7] vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Blr [32]
    Garbine Muguruza Esp [19] vs Elina Svitolina Ukr [9]
    Belinda Bencic Sui [15] vs Donna Vekic Cor [23]
    Johanna Konta GBr [26] vs Kiki Bertens Ned [4]

    Angelique Kerber Ger [5] vs Carla Suarez Navarro Esp [28]
    Elise Mertens Bel [20] vs Anastasija Sevastova Lat [12]
    Caroline Wozniacki Den [13] vs Julia Goerges Ger [18]
    Petra Martic Cro [31] vs Karolina Pliskova Cze [2]


    OK, anyone want a first shot at predictions?

    #2
    What confronts the Brits in the first few rounds? Well, as follows:-

    Johanna Konta GBr [26] vs Antonia Lottner Ger [Q]
    Lauren Davis USA [WC] vs Krystyna Pliskova Cze
    Viktoria Kuzmova Svk vs Alize Cornet Fra
    Pauline Parmentier Fra vs Kiki Bertens Ned [4]


    Dusan Lajovic Srb [30] vs Thiago Monteiro Brz [Q]
    Cameron Norrie GBr vs Elliot Benchetrit Fra [Q]
    Mikael Ymer Swe [Q] vs Blaz Rola Slo [Q]
    John Millman Aus vs Alexander Zverev Ger [5]

    Dominic Thiem Aut [4] vs Tommy Paul USA [WC]
    Rudolf Molleker Ger [Q] vs Alexander Bublik Kaz
    Maxime Janvier Fra [WC] vs Pablo Cuevas Uru
    Jeremy Chardy Fra vs Kyle Edmund GBr [28]

    Fernando Verdasco Esp [23] vs Dan Evans GBr
    Antonie Hoang Fra [WC] vs Damir Dzumhur BiH
    Stefano Travaglia Ita [Q] vs Adrian Mannarino Fra
    Taro Daniel Jpn vs Gael Monfils Fra [14]


    I’m guessing none make R4.

    Konta obviously has much improved form coming in, and hopefully can get the monkey off her back and finally win a R1 match against Lottner though the German did qualify in style (not losing a set) and is also on her own good form on the back of that. She has her own mountain to overcome – like Konta, she has never won a main draw match at the French Open (nor has she lost one for that matter, this will be her debut in the main show) but unlike Jo Lottner has never won one anywhere else either.
    Get past that and either Davis or Pliskova (other) in R2 are beatable but also losable too. However Kiki Bertens in R3 ought to be a step too far. Yes, Jo beat her in Rome recently but Bertens would have been extremely worn down at that point after two weeks of near constant playing.

    Norrie probably has the best chance of the lot, as Benchetrit is sort of a plum (the Frenchman needed a wild card just to get into qualifying) and ought to be rather more straightforward to play against than the original draw of Kyrgios. However, given Benchetrit’s path through he has little to lose now. It could be something of a Marcus Willis-Richard Berankis situation and nobody wants to be cast in the Berankis role!
    Get past the banana skin and Norrie becomes that himself, assuming Lajovic (a Masters Series runner up in Monte Carlo a month or so back) avoids an upset in R1. Lajovic would be favourite, particularly on clay, but not an overwhelming one. And if Norrie can survive that, then it’s probably Sascha Zverev and various demons on the other side of the net.

    Ugh. Kyle Edmund. It’s not been great, has it? It’s not even been good, really. Just five wins all year (which adds up to 71 in the year-to-date rankings), and only one on clay against Humbert in R1 of Marrakech. Since then it’s been five straight defeats and OK, some of the draws could have been kinder (Tsonga, Schwartzman, Kudla, Fognini and Verdasco is not an easy run for anyone) but Edmund was at least as high ranked as most of them if not higher than most. Clay is also supposed to be his surface. And Jeremy Chardy is a name that fits neatly into that roll-call of disaster.
    Even if Kyle survives R1 then veteran Pablo Cuevas would definitely be the favourite to beat him in R2 and Dominic Thiem (the runner-up in 2018) clearly so in R3. I guess if he does find a way to battle through, he could play himself into form...?

    Dan Evans to beat Fernando Verdasco on a clay-court? Yeah, right... As part of his charm campaign Kyrgios noted that Verdasco’s backhand is not stellar. Evans, rightly, has pointed out he is more concerned about dealing with the huge forehand the Spaniard possesses. I guess, if Dan can get through, then anything is possible (Hoang/Dzumhur in R2 and Monfils in R3 are not terrifying draws) but that is an enormous if given he hasn’t won a Tour level clay court match this year (and just four overall in his life). In any event, Evo is probably just glad to be in a Grand Slam main draw by dint of his ranking again.

    Comment


      #3
      OK then, what do I think will happen? Well, let’s start with the Men’s because it’s easier. And do it in seeding order, with all of the top 10 and then a few selected others.

      #1 Novak Djokovic – Has had a strangely scratchy year so far, despite his Australian Open success. However, he is now into the phase of his career where only the Slams matter. Indian Wells, Miami, etc.? He has won all of those often enough for his legacy, another one or two added to the pile won’t matter. It’s only the four biggies that count from here on out, and whether he can overhaul the two Men in front of him.
      So it’s now about peaking for the Slam, and, well, the evidence is good. The lack of an appearance in a final between January and May is irrelevant given that his showing in the two main Masters Series events in the warm up were winning Madrid and being Runner-Up to Nadal in Rome. Aged 32 and with his physically intensive game style he probably doesn’t have that many years at the top left (it’s hard to see him still going and winning at 35+ like Federer) so every chance is precious. One potential banana skin in R3 aside, where he is due to face a player who has given him problems before, Gilles Simon, and if he does a passionate home crowd, the route to the Semis looks pretty clear. And then the tournament starts for real...

      #2 Rafa Nadal – The out-and-out favourite for his 12th title, based on his past successes (his career record at Roland Garros is a staggering 86-2!). That status was looking a bit flaky prior to Rome, as Nadal hadn’t won a clay court title in the year prior to that. For how exceptional that is, it would have been the first time ever that Nadal had turned up to Roland Garros without being a current champion of a clay court event somewhere. He was a champion of six different tournaments when he made his French Open debut (which he won).
      However, the destruction he wrought as he went through the draw in Rome suggests that rumours of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Numerous good clay court players were given a beating, up to and including Djokovic in the final, who is also not operating at the same level as he was in 2018. All those other events are three sets, the French is five sets of Tennis which reduces the random factor significantly. The odd-ons favourite to win the title with every British firm, which just shows how dominant he is. Has to be the tip to win it. It’s insane to go anywhere else.

      #3 Roger Federer – The biggest noise around a player in the whole draw will surround Federer on his return to the event after three successive absences. He remains the most popular with almost every crowd. But possibly, maybe, not the Roland Garros one. He certainly used to be their favourite, not just a beautiful and devastatingly good player but a fluent French speaker to boot. However, he has shunned their great tournament. The reaction might be surprisingly cold. The RG crowd and the French in general have been known to take slights to heart and to bear a grudge...
      Will the hype be matched by performance? Er, ask me another one please? OK, no, it probably won’t. This is a player who hasn’t won a clay court event of even been in a final in four years and before his fans say ‘yeah but he hasn’t been playing much on it recently’ hasn’t won anything of importance on the surface in seven (the 2012 Madrid title being the last of significance). The route to the last sixteen looks smooth enough, though Gulbis might pull off a shock in R2, but then things should go up stratospherically; first Cecchinato in theory but I suspect someone else in practice, then Tsitsipas, then Nadal! I don’t think the latter happens. QFs and out.

      #4 Dominic Thiem – How is it possible to be the World No.4, the runner-up of the event last year and be under the radar? To find out, ask Dominic Thiem. His performances in the French Open over the last three seasons have been extremely consistent – Semis, Semis, Runner-Up. Another deep run should absolutely be expected. However there is also how those runs ended – straight set defeats against Djokovic (2016) and Nadal (2017 and 18) where Thiem only got to four games in a set once per match and never beyond that.
      He is clearly the best of the rest, but has a large hurdle and mental stumbling block to overcome. Beating Nadal in the Barcelona Semi will help, but that was over three. Until he has done it on the big stage, or at least threatened to do so and he hasn’t even managed that yet, it’s very difficult to see him winning the title.

      #5 Sascha Zverev – Hooo dear. The future World No.1 and main hope of the NextGen looks to have lost his way badly. The question asked of Zverev for a couple of years now has been when he would deliver his ATP Tour form, where he has won three Masters Series events, two of them on clay, in Slams? Because he has only been past R4 in those once, last year’s French as it so happens. And that needed three straight madly tense five setters before a meek capitulation to Thiem. Well, now we are getting our answer to bringing the form, but its back-to-front – the ATP results are regressing to match the Slam performance! That is not the way it was supposed to happen...
      The Masters Series this year have been poor, just one QF reached and only four match wins in five events (3/3 in the clay ones. By contrast, last year he came into Paris with the Madrid and Munich titles in his back pocket and a runner-up showing in Rome, and despite losing that showpiece he did win a set 6-1 against Nadal. Could reduced expectations, and they certainly are way down, will be a help on the grounds that high expectations have been a hindrance? Is there a proper cause-and-effect in that? Hmm. R4 is supposed to be against Fognini, the QFs against Djokovic. Let’s hope Sascha makes it that far and that the minor title he won today helps break the funk. But I doubt it.

      #6 Stefanos Tsitsipas – Still behind Zverev on the ranking lists, but now a long distance ahead of the young German in more nebulous overall perception. Clearly thought of as the next big thing, and part of what might be the Tennis power couple of the 2020s (he is reportedly dating fellow Greek Maria Sakkari). In this year of varied results has been one of the few consistent performers, with two titles (Marseille and Estoril) and two other finals (Dubai and Madrid), and also a further two Semis and two Quarters reached.
      Beat Federer at the Aussie Open, Nadal (and Zverev) in Madrid and Djokovic in Cincinatti last year. The Aussie run was also a breakthrough in a Slam though Rafa did show him what the next level entails in the Semi. This time around he could easily find himself facing a string of multiple slam champions, with a possibly run of Wawrinka in R4, Federer in the QFs and Nadal in the SFs. And I expect him to make it to the third of these, but no further.

      #7 Kei Nishikori – Still up there on the rankings, but not really the threat he posed a few years ago when he had a period of causing Nadal and Djokovic genuine troubles on clay. Injury is always the bugbear with Nishikori. If he were to have a long period without his body giving up on him, what might he achieve? We will probably never know because if apples were oranges...
      May very possibly be dumped out before his seeding spot of the QFs, with notable obstacles in the form of Tsonga in R2 and Mededev in R4.

      #8 Juan Martin del Potro – another whose achievements would have looked so, so different without the curse of injuries. But they are what they are. Delpo remains a threat to all with his powerful forehand, but on clay he probably doesn’t move and defend well enough to threaten a Nadal/Djokovic or even a Thiem/Federer. Has a tough R1 match against Jarry (R-Up, just, in Geneva) and a potentially intriguing one in R3 against Felix Auger-Aliassime. If he gets to matches with Thiem (QF) and Djokovic (SF) they might be awesome, but at this stage even reaching that is probably too big an ask.

      #9 Fabio Fognini – His picture appears in dictionaries alongside the word mercurial. Immensely talented and very highly strung, with a record of beating Nadal on clay which all but Djokovic would envy and nowhere near the overall success his Tennis skills might have brought. In all his years playing the French Open, Fognini has only made the QFs once (2011) and then he didn’t even bother taking to the court, handing Djokovic a walkover. Could crash and burn at any time, including and especially R1 against fellow Italian Andreas Seppi, but if he holds it together and brings the Monte Carlo form (beat Nadal, won the title) he should fight through to a QF against Djokovic. But if he gets there, he will rise to the challenge of shrink from it. Past experience suggests option B.

      #10 Karen Khachanov – very tall Russian with a booming serve, massive forehand and a fear of the net that reminds one of cartoons of an elephant shying away from a mouse. Just about the archetypal one-dimensional male power player, really. The lack of go forward means he seems the most comfortable and certain of himself on clay, but on that he lacks the wit to win points when raw power isn’t itself enough. Despite the clear preference for crushed brick, most of his best results have been on Indoor Hard courts where the cannon of a serve is more effective. Could conceivably make the QFs or even SFs if Thiem (his likely last eight opponent) is knocked out early; either would be a best ever for a Slam, surpassing the two R4s he has made on his previous trips to West Paris.

      Comment


        #4
        #12 Daniil Medvedev – Has performed consistently through 2019 with one title, two runners-up and two other Semis. Two of these events were on clay, with the very notable scalp of Djokovic in the Monte Carlo QFs (l to Lajovic in the SFs) and also Nishikori in the Barcelona SFs (l to Thiem in the final). Could meet Nishikori again in R4 but may have to get past Alex de Minaur (see below) in R3. Worth keeping an eye on.

        #17 Diego Schwartzman – SF in the Italian Open two weeks ago, beating Nishikori in the last 8. Last 8 in Paris last year, where for an hour he threatened something really remarkable by being a set and a break up on Nadal. Normal service was quickly resumed after that, but both results show that the diminutive Argentine is absolutely no mug on clay. In Federer’s eighth of the draw, and could easily find himself playing the great man in the last 16. If he does, he may not see the match turn around on him in the same way Rafa managed...

        #20 Denis Shapovalov and #21 Alex De Minaur – Two young guns (both 20) who are hovering at the moment and waiting to make the next big step up by breaking through at a slam a la Tsitsipas in the Aussie Open. Of the two, I feel the Aussie, De Minaur, is better equipped for the slower surface as he has a more varied and cerebral game; Shapovalov is much more a hardcourt type player, firing away from the baseline. They met in the 2016 Wimbledon Boys Singles final and may do likewise in a few years time in Men’s Slam title matches. If either reaches R4 there will be fuss, as Shapovalov would likely be playing Djokovic and De Minaur would have a genuine chance of winning against Nishikori/ANOther.

        #24 Stan Wawrinka – Champion once, runner-up once but down the rankings due to injury. Nobody wanted to see Stan in their section of the draw. The top seed who has got unlucky? Tsitsipas, who may well face Wawrinka in R4, though Stan may have to come through another Slam champion, Marin Cilic to get to that point. A note of caution, however – Wawrinka, at 34, is very much in the veteran phase, particularly given his physical style of play. Yes the last couple of years have been marked by injuries, but aren’t those to be expected? He hasn’t won a title since his last Roland Garros final two years ago, and has only won 5 slam matches in total despite entering six events. On the way out, but maybe a last hurrah at his favourite venue? Or was the last hurrah winning the 2017 Semi against Andy Murray, a brutally physical match that both players emerged from with essentially injuries that limited or possibly completely curtailed their careers as top players.

        #25 Felix Auger-Alisassime – One Francophone is slowly leaving the stage, another is getting ready to take the central spotlight. Just 18 and the youngest player in the ATP’s top 100, he is high enough ranked to be seeded already despite this being only his second ever Grand Slam main draw. Comfortable on clay (both his ATP finals to date have been on the surface), possessing a varied game of both power and subtlety that works well on the surface. Is on form having made a final this week. Yes, a teenager on debut at Roland Garros winning it is unlikely, but it has happened before and more than once (M.Wilander, R.Nadal). It couldn’t again... could it?

        #27 David Goffin – First announced himself on these courts by going toe-to-toe with Federer in the 4th round on his debut in 2012. Has dropped away a bit in the last 18 months after breaking the top 10, which is partly attributable to a nasty injury he suffered on these very courts in 2017 when he tripped over a tarpaulin that had been on for rain and was now gathered against the backstop and injured his ankle. Roland Garros owes him, and he does have the ability and clay-court nous to do something massive. Massive like beating Nadal in R3? Er, probably not. Giving him a good match might have to do.

        I usually try and pick out a few promising youngster to watch amongst the non-seeds, but this year they all have a little number against their names already. We are in the midst of a changing of the guard. However, I will identify one other to watch – US wild card choice Tommy Paul. He won the 2015 Boys Singles final and was also the runner-up at Wimbledon a month later, both matches coming against the same fellow American, Taylor Fritz. However, where Fritz rocketed up the senior rankings, making a final in just his second ever ATP event, Paul’s rise has been much, much slower. It will be interesting to see if he still has potential, though he could have done with a friendlier R1 draw (his is playing Dominic Thiem!).

        And the tip? Well, Nadal of course.


        Posted now as the matches are about to start. The Women's ones will appear as soon as I've written them!

        Comment


          #5
          Posted now as the matches are about to start. The Women's ones will appear as soon as I've written them!


          Since the start of 2017, eight different women have won a Grand Slam singles championship. Do you know how far you need to go back to find an eighth male name on a trophy? January 2005! That was when Marat Safin won the Aussie Open for his second and final slam. In the same time, 22 different Women have been crowned. And that is despite one of them (Serena) taking a lion’s share of what was on offer (17 titles in that time). The Women’s side is much more unpredictable therefore. Who is going to win it?

          #1 Naomi Osaka – The first player to win back-to-back slams since 2015, she will be looking to get a step closer to matching Serena’s run of four on the spin (done twice, the 2014 US to 2015 Wimbledon and the previous Serena-Slam in 2002-03). But on clay? Osaka has never reached a WTA level final on the surface, let alone won a title. That said, she has only won three WTA titles in total, it’s just two of them have been rather major ones...
          QFs in Madrid and Rome showed promise, but the surface blunts Osaka’s main strength which is her sheer power and aggression. She also has a complete pig of a draw, with a tractable but also losable R1 match-up against a player comfortable on clay (Schmeidlova) and then facing about as dangerous a floater as is possible – the winner of probably the most eye-catching R1 match pitting Ostapenko and Azarenka. And that is all before she is meant to play another seed. And that seed is Maria Sakkari. Who is a genuine title hope. If Osaka survives all of that, it may have tempered her game to the level she needs to win the whole shebang. But I don’t think she will. Out early.

          #2 Karolina Pliskova – Pliskova has somewhat snuck back up to No.2 in the World. Yes, I know winning the Italian Open had something to do with it, and that was all a bit random as the weather made for some unusual results, and her run to the Aussie Semis was also a part of it. But it’s all been a bit piecemeal. In fact, that Pliskova is here is a mark of the low numbers of points the Women’s leaders currently possess. What it needs is one of the top five to start consistently winning, and push the bar up. Could that be the tall Czech?
          Well she is better on clay than some (i.e. me) might expect. There had been titles and deep runs in big events prior to Rome this year, not least a Semi on these courts two years ago. Her movement has improved in recent years, and her calmness and levelheadedness on court is a positive on a devilish surface like clay. She has also, Wimbledon aside, put the “doesn’t do it in Slams” thing to bed. Excluding events in SW19 she has made the QFs or better in eight of the last nine Slams she has played. However, even with some other unexpected winners, the phrase “Karolina Pliskova, French Open Champion!” just sounds wrong. She could even go out in R2 to venue specialist Svetlana Kuznetsova.

          #3 Simona Halep – Defending champion and according to those who make their living from predicting the outcomes of sports events, the clear favourite to retain her crown. Clay is always going to be Halep’s best surface, she has the right combination of attacking prowess when an opportunity presents itself, athleticism to defend and patience and consistency in her shots to wait in rallies for the right moment to strike. She also has the consistent backing of the noisy Romanian fans.
          Pressure an expectation have been a problem for Halep in the past, but 2018 should have put that stumbling block behind her. The breakthrough in reaching the no.1 ranking and finally getting the Slam that eluded her seem to have lifted the weight away. When was the last time she folded mentally, talking and thinking her way to defeat? I can’t remember a recent episode. Rather, she is now tough to breakdown and has full belief in what she is doing. She also must be very comfortable on these courts, what with having made the final three times in the past five seasons.
          Having won a warm-up event, or indeed having any title in 2019 to her name would have been nice, but I’m thinking it’s non-essential. Looking at the draw, I’m not seeing a great deal to challenge Halep prior to the QFs. Gavrilova maybe, but on clay? Nah. Halep should be in the mix in two weeks time, and if she is no-one can be confident facing her.

          #4 Kiki Bertens – If Halep comes in with slightly underwhelming warm-up results, Kiki Bertens does the opposite. She has been stellar, again, through the clay season. Semi in Stuttgart, where the Indoor conditions and reportedly thin layer of top dressing make things a lot faster than a standard clay court (Bertens hadn’t actually won a single match there in previous years), champion in Madrid, Semi in Rome where defeat can at least be partly attributable to exhaustion.
          Bertens is the first Dutchwoman to be ranked in the WTA’s top 5, and has reached that level because she has expanded her winning from just on clay to also picking up hardcourt crowns. The dirt remains where it’s at for Kiki though. On other surfaces she is handy and difficult to beat, on crushed up bricks (who on earth invents that as a playing surface for sport, btw?) she is part of a peer group of two with Halep. These two may be the #3 and #4 seeds, but they are 1 and 2 in the odds and that feels quite right. In fact, if they were to play the final it would be something very special. Here’s hoping, and here’s my virtual fiver on Bertens to be crowned at the end of things.

          #5 Angie Kerber – Kerber has not had the greatest joy in the French Open. Whilst she has won the other three Slams and made the Semis of all of them on a separate occasion, her best in Paris is ‘only’ the QFs twice. Yeah, that is still decent, but it’s not at the same level as she manages elsewhere. Her win-loss also shows struggles in the French capital, with 25-30 match wins in each of the other slams and only 17 to date at Roland Garros. She even managed to lose in R1 in her Annus Mirabilis when she was 20-1 in the other three slams, and then followed that up by losing her opening match as top seed 12 months later.
          That is somewhat perplexing, as in many ways Kerber has a good style for clay. She runs, she defends, her ratio of completed shots to unforced errors is very low. What she does lack though is penetration on her shots to put it away. It’s not limited to Roland Garros though – Kerber has only won three clay court titles in her career and made one other final, and two of those wins came in Stuttgart which (see above re: Bertens) is an atypically fast clay court. Some may say it’s time for Kerber to finally get a good result in Paris. I say she should beware of Marketa Vondrousova in R2.

          Comment


            #6
            #6 Petra Kvitova – In many ways Kvitova is Kerber’s alter ego on clay. Her game is very attacking instead of very defensive, but that is also a set up better adapted to fast services. That big serving lefty style is ideal for Wimbledon, which she has of course won twice. However Petra has a very good record on clay down the years, with regular titles on the surface. That includes winning Madrid three times, which in Women’s terms is second in importance only to Roland Garros as a clay court event.
            Where Petra hasn’t done it for a number of years though is in Paris. She made the Semis back in 2012, when it looked like she might establish herself as the dominant player in the game, but hasn’t progressed past R4 since. It’s probably to do with her lack of margin (she either hits winners or sprays long time and again), and at times her relatively poor movement. The later she has worked on in recent years, losing weight and gaining speed. That accounts for her return to the top echelon in the last 18 months.
            Given the background of the home invasion, if and when Kvitova wins another slam it is going to be extremely popular. Few other players seem to have a bad word for her, and the injuries she suffered in the attack were very nasty. She came close in Australia earlier this year, but here? I doubt it in the end.

            #7 Sloane Stephens – It’s easy to forget that for a long while Sloane Stephens looked on course to win last year’s final. She was playing brilliantly to be a set and a break up. The tape wasn’t quite in sight, but she did falter a little. That was understandable, though it can’t help but be painful to think she could have had a second slam to add to her US Open crown.
            Actually it’s possible to forget entirely that Stephens was the player on the other side of the net when Halep was finally able to get over the line, as her presence in a French Open final was a little leftfield based on previous results. She had never previously made it past R4 in Paris, and her only clay court title and final had come on the American green stuff in Charleston, which is a bit different to the European courts. However there was nothing fluky about Stephens run to the final last year or the position she got herself into in it; she is a very accomplished operator on the surface.
            What has been lacking from Sloane in 2019 though is form. She hasn’t made a final all year, and has only reached one Semi. That was an important one though – Madrid. That alone is enough to say she is still a live contender for this crown particularly if she can sweep through the first week with lots in the tank as her draw suggests is possible.

            #8 Ashleigh Barty – Barty is one of the biggest success stories of 2019 so far. She made her first slam (singles!) QF on home courts in Melbourne at the start of the season and won her first (but surely won’t be only) Premier Mandatory event in Miami in March. That all added up to a rise into the World’s top 10. The return to the Sport from Cricket looks like it was the right choice...
            All that said, clay is really not Barty’s surface – her mix of skills, slicing, net rushing, working angles, etc. is perfect for grass. She will be an extremely significant contender when the charabanc moves on to London next month. However, even if she is not in the first rank of names given her game style it is still going to take a good player playing well to shift her from the event. She showed her capabilities by reaching the QFs in Madrid and giving Halep an extremely tough match in those. She should make it to R3 where she is scheduled to play an intriguing match against Hsieh. If she gets through that? Serena. Again, fascinating. But not, ultimately, still here in two weeks time I wouldn’t have thought.

            #9 Elina Svitolina – Each Slam that goes by makes Svitolina’s final breakthrough at this level even more overdue. A top ten regular who has been as high as #3, with a string of WTA titles on all surfaces and at levels up to and including Prem Mandatory, her best slam performance of QFs four times is really underwhelming. If Elina is going to make the step up anywhere, then in Paris? Maybe. It’s certainly been her most consistent of the four, where she is the least far from the results she ought to have obtained. Two of the QFs have been here, and R3 or better for the last four attempts.
            Form this year has been very patchy though, hence her ranking dropping down to 9 from the top 5 spot she has regularly occupied. She didn’t win a match in either Madrid or Rome, losing to Parmentier and Azarenka. And in Rome she was the two-time defending champion...
            Considering Svitolina has come in on the back of success and failed, will she come in with nothing and succeed? Surely life doesn’t work like that! Her draw is not going to help at all. One of the two most dangerous floaters in it was Venus Williams, and that is precisely who Svitolina has landed in the match of R1 (she has called it a ‘punishment’). After that it’s Muguruza in R3, Stephens in R4 and Bertens in the QFs. Ugh. If Elina does finally make waves, she will have earned it.

            #10 Serena Williams – Is she fit? Indeed, will she ever be in good enough physical condition again? The obstacles for that are massive, both age in general (Serena is 37) and a difficult pregnancy. Serena and her fans have made it clear that her success in this part of her career will prove that being a mother should have no effect on a woman’s career. Making those claims before the evidence was in that she was back to what she had been before always felt a risky strategy; what if she never wins another slam? Won’t that ‘prove’ the wrong thing?
            It’s not that she hasn’t been close, reaching both the Wimbledon and US Open finals last year. Her flipping out against Osaka was rather worrying though, as if she was lashing outwards because internally she knew it wasn’t quite there and will power alone wasn’t going to be enough to overcome the woman on the other side of the net and achieve her aims. 2019 has amped up the worry with a series of retirements and withdrawals.
            Clearly the end is near, and the golden carrot of the most Slam singles titles of anyone, ever, still dangles tantalisingly. Clay doesn’t seem the likeliest place to get over the line if Serena’s advantages over the field are diminished; it has always blunted her main strength, which is her shot power. As always with Serena, as she goes deeper into the event her chances of winning increase exponentially. The early rounds are therefore worth paying close attention to.

            Comment


              #7
              #11 Aryna Sabalenka – Let’s call it the Jelena Ostapenko effect. A player who plays with no margin for error, but gets hot for two weeks and simply won’t miss. That is what all the players like Sabalenka are striving for, because if she lands consistently she is simply unplayable. And the signs were there in Strasbourg last week as, following a disappointing clay campaign Sabalenka made the SFs. If she survives early, that means she is finding her targets, and if she is, no-one will want to play her... Has a tough route through with Cibulkova in R1, probably Anisimova in R2 and Kontaveit in R3. If she is still there by R4 then she is an unexploded grenade for the rest of the Women’s draw.

              #15 Belinda Bencic – Another of the revelations of 2019, Bencic is rebuilding a career that was on the skids with injury and lack of form for the previous three years. And despite those down years, she is only 22 still. The champion on hard in Dubai, and a Semi-Finalist in Madrid where she beat Osaka but then lost a hard fought three-setter to Halep, she has shown enough form to be given serious consideration.
              In terms of game style, she is well suited to clay. And grass. And hard. In fact, Belinda is just a good all round Tennis player. With all the Hingis links, that will always be the comparison and she has something of the Swiss Miss’ skills but with more power behind her shots. Scheduled to meet Bertens in R4, which could be an epic if it happens.

              #17 Anett Kontaveit – The runner-up in Stuttgart, and another having a good season, Kontaveit is more of a dangerous opponent who is capable of taking down a title contender than someone likely to stitch enough together to win it herself. She is a little too much of a one-dimensional baseliner for that. But she could come through her section, taking down Sabalenka and Kvitova before she finally exits. R4 last year in Paris was her career best Slam performance, and frankly it’s high time that bar was raised for Anett.

              #22 Bianca Andreescu – There are 18 year-old sensations on the respective Tours at the moment, and both are Canadian. Andreescu is the Women’s equivalent of Felix Auger-Aliassime, or is it the other way around that Auger-Aliassime is the male Bianca Andreescu? Because only one of these two is the reigning Indian Wells champion...
              Sadly Andreescu stellar efforts in the March Premier Mandatories have come at a cost – she hasn’t played since retiring hurt from her QF in Miami. So that is two whole months of the year that she has missed. And yet, she is still in the top 10 of the WTA for match wins, with a 20-4 record in main draws.
              Reports say she is fit. Fingers crossed, because I would love to see what she does on a clay court. The intelligence in her game suggests it may be like a duck to water...

              #25 Hsieh Su-wei – Hsieh has always been difficult to play against. But now she is confident, and is making opponent’s lives an absolute nightmare. She is probably still lacking the power to go on and win a slam (the Aga Radwanska problem), but any and every opponent will want to avoid facing her. She could tie anybody up in knots and leave them dumped outside the venue wondering what on earth just happened. Who might be in line for that? Ash Barty is the first other seed Hsieh will come across. Barty is similar enough not to be caught out one would have thought, but with Hsieh the journey is always worth watching.

              #26 Johanna Konta – Really? Well yes, she was the finalist in Rome and Rabat and stands fourth on the WTA for match wins in 2019 on clay. So yes, really. She has earned that respect. First things first is to actually win a match, but if and when (fingers crossed) that is ticked off then Jo may get rolling again.
              Back when Konta was a junior, she listed clay as her favourite surface. Her mix of power hitting into corners and drop volleying is a good combination for dirt, so it’s more of a surprise about her previous struggles in hindsight. It’s not impossible that Jo will fight her way through to R3 against Bertens. Who she beat in Rome. But not, I think, this time around.

              #29 Maria Sakkari – Konta’s conqueror in Rabat, and then had a similarly successful Italian Open to the Brit. But whereas Jo’s success on clay was left-field, Sakkari has a game built for the surface. Patient hitting, good defence, wit to find angles and calmness to start again if an opponent resets a rally. She looks to be here to stay.
              Sakkari is second to Kiki Bertens on the clay courts win charts; level on victories in fact but with one more loss so takes the second spot. If she gets through to play Osaka in R3 (and she should even if Naomi might not), that will represent he big chance. Sakkari found be the favourite for that one in my eyes, and indeed is my tip to make the Semis from the top half of the draw. Greece, like Canada, has some good years coming up in this sport...

              The non-seeds to pick are three-fold, and at both ends of the experience spectrum. The older stateswoman is Vika Azarenka, who picked up some good wins in Rome and is seemingly more settled in her personal life now. Like Serena, if she were to win the event that would make a more general statement about Womanhood and career. Therefore it is to be hope she might. Tough draw, though.
              At the other end of the age spectrum are Marketa Vondrousova and Amanda Anisimova. Both have been in clay finals, Anisimova winning the title on Bogota and Vondrousova being runner-up in Istanbul. Vondrousova also took the big scalp, beating Halep in Rome. 17 and 19 respectively, they are players to watch for both the future and the hear-and-now. Anisimova vs Sabalenka in R2 (if it happens) would be a festival of hitting and Vondrousova could very conceivably come through a section where the seeds are Kerber, Sevastova, Mertens and Suarez Navarro and make a QF.


              And the tip? Already said it. Bertens. I'll go left field and say vs Sabalenka in the final.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Janik View Post
                #5 Angie Kerber – Kerber has not had the greatest joy in the French Open. Whilst she has won the other three Slams and made the Semis of all of them on a separate occasion, her best in Paris is ‘only’ the QFs twice. Yeah, that is still decent, but it’s not at the same level as she manages elsewhere. Her win-loss also shows struggles in the French capital, with 25-30 match wins in each of the other slams and only 17 to date at Roland Garros. She even managed to lose in R1 in her Annus Mirabilis when she was 20-1 in the other three slams, and then followed that up by losing her opening match as top seed 12 months later.
                That is somewhat perplexing, as in many ways Kerber has a good style for clay. She runs, she defends, her ratio of completed shots to unforced errors is very low. What she does lack though is penetration on her shots to put it away. It’s not limited to Roland Garros though – Kerber has only won three clay court titles in her career and made one other final, and two of those wins came in Stuttgart which (see above re: Bertens) is an atypically fast clay court. Some may say it’s time for Kerber to finally get a good result in Paris. I say she should beware of Marketa Vondrousova in R2.
                Vondrousova in R2? Anastasia Potapova in R1 more like - Angie is already out. Paris is not her city.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Day 1 picks

                  Muguruza [19] vs Townsend - first on Simonne-Mathieu
                  Wang vs Vondrousova - second on #13
                  V.Williams vs Svitolina [9] - third on Simonne-Mathieu

                  Ruud vs Gulbis - first on #13
                  Tipsarevic vs Dimitrov - second on #1
                  Nishikori [7] vs Halys - second on Lenglen

                  Muguruza vs Townsend is already well underway, and Garbine has just recovered from a set down to level. You will have to take me on trust when I say I identified this ahead of time! Muguruza has been a mess all season. She hasn’t looked like a two-time slam champion and world no.1. Rather she has looked confused. Taylor Townsend has not quite developed from the promising junior she was, but is a talented player and capable of beating an off-form top player. The match is also a first look at the brand new third court at Roland Garros Court Simonne-Mathieu, which is the centrepiece of the extension built for this year.
                  Wang vs Vondrousova is a first look at one of the youngsters making waves in the Czech. Wang is a solid opponent, but the draw is opening up in front of her so this is a big one to win. It’s more about her than her opponent, really.
                  And then it’s the match of the day, Venus vs Svitolina on Simonne-Mathieu. This is a harsh draw on Svitolina, who could do with easing into the tournament as she hasn’t had a good build up. She doesn’t get that option, but equally Venus is out of sorts hence her lack of a seeding. Venus will try and hit through Svitolina, Elina will defend, and what will be will be (Svitolina to win).

                  My picks also include a match well into its second hour on the men’s side, Casper Ruud vs Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis is a former semi-finalist of course, and a bit of an odd-ball. Ruud is a promising youngster of a very standard template. The ball striking will be big, the subtlety possible missing. Ruud won the first set, the second is into a breaker currently.
                  Tipsarevic vs Dimitrov and neither are seeded? Times change. It’s an especially large fall for Grigor, who finished 2017 as World No.3 but is now around 50th. Tipsarevic missed over a year with injury hence his ranking decline, which is easier to cope with mentally. A win would be vital to either. Not that there has been much sign of wins for either recently (Dimitrov lost in R1 of Madrid and Rome, Tipsarevic didn’t play either event).
                  Nishikori vs Halys is one to get the French crowd going. The Frenchman is not so young anymore (22), and hasn’t transition from his highly promising Junior career as hoped (one Boys Singles Slam final and three Boys Doubles ones). The FFT didn’t give Quentin a wild card last year but has return to him this. He needs to justify it with a performance that at least threatens an upset.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    This Federer chappie seems quite handy. I wonder where he's been for the last few years?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      She may have run out of steam eventually today but I was very impressed with Taylor Townsend this morning. She's one to watch.

                      Fabulous work on this thread, by the way, Janik.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Concerning the whole tournament it would be reckless to look beyond the Djokovic/Nadal duopoly but Tsitsipas looks ready to challenge. Kei Nishikori is a bit of a favourite player of mine, but more importantly he's a fine all court player with terrific movement. I saw him at the Madrid Open three years ago and he looked majestic on clay. He's also running into form after injuries and I think he could be a contender.

                        As for the women, I would have Osaka and Halep at the top of the list .

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Two of the ones to follow have withdrawn. And it’s a shame to have lost both of them as it’s Petra Kvitova on the Women’s side and Felix Auger-Aliassime on the Men’s. Ah, nuts.


                          Day 2 – my standout matches

                          Thiem [4] vs Paul [WC] – fourth on Lenglen
                          M.Zverev vs Gasquet – second on Mathieu
                          Chardy vs Edmund [28] – fourth on Court 1
                          Herbert vs Medvedev [12] – first on Court 14
                          Krajinovic vs Tiafoe [32] – first on Court 12

                          Parmentier vs Bertens [4] – first on Lenglen
                          Cirstea vs Kvitova [6] – second on Lenglen
                          Kanepi vs Goerges [18] – first on Court 1
                          Bouzkova [LL] vs Andreescu [22] – fourth on Court 14
                          Yastremska vs Suarez Navarro [28] – fourth on Court 13


                          Having picked out Tommy Paul in the preview, I really have to include his opening, and probably only, match of the tournament against Dominic Thiem. At senior level, the contrast between the two is vast. Thiem is in the world’s top 5, and has made Semi, Semi, Final of this very event for the last three years; Paul has barely been inside the top 150, and is yet to win a Slam match. At Juniors however, one if the 2011 French Runner-Up and the other the 2015 French Champion. And it’s Paul with the crown. His transition hasn’t happened, but it will be intriguing to see what is there.

                          Two veterans go at it when Mischa Zverev plays Richard Gasquet, in what ought to be a stylish match. Zverev’s archaic serve-and-volley tactics are really not suited to clay, and it took until a run to R3 last year for him to win any matches at this venue. But it should provide a contrast to the more all-court Frenchman, who has generally done well in week 1 at RG and then hit a glass celling. At 31 and 32 respectively (Germany, France) time is running out for both to do something career defining at Slams, which makes each opportunity vital to grasp.

                          The most notable shot for both Jeremy Chardy and Kyle Edmund is there forehands, but they are differently constructed shots. Edmund’s is a ‘fearhand’, hit hard, flat and through the court. Chardy, by contrast, is so loaded with topspin it’s a wonder the ball doesn’t explode. Rather than hit through the ball his racquet whips and arcs around it (and his own body) to brush the top and drag the thing forwards. Both have their uses on clay, and both are exceptional shots. Edmund needs to hold the baseline and hit through the spin to win. He also needs to break the run of five straight losses he has suffered. Chardy hasn’t won that much recently himself, but he did stuff Schwartzman in Rome which shows the danger Kyle is under here. And then there is the home crowd to contend with...

                          Pierre-Hugues Herbert is far more known for Doubles than Singles (he and partner Nicolas Mahut completed the career Grand Slam when winning in Australia a few months ago), but the Frenchman has become more proficient and successful on his lonesome in the last couple of years. His singles ranking is now into the top 50, and clay is a decent surface for him. The warm-up events include wins over Verdasco and Nishikori (Monte Carlo) and Chardy (Lyon last week). However, Daniil Medvedev on a clay court is a huge challenge. Just ask Djokovic, who lost to the Russian in Monte Carlo (and was also taken to four on hard in Melbourne, for that matter). Herbert may challenge, Medvedev should win.

                          Filip Krajinovic has won a lot of clay court matches this season. Yes, many of them have been at Challenger level (won in Heilbronn, runner-up in Sophia Antipolis), but he also did it at Full Tour when he was runner-up in Budapest. In fact, in Krajinovic’s three warm-up events, he hasn’t failed to reach a final! Even prior to clay things were going well with R3 in Miami and QF in Indian Wells, and he can probably cope with how both those runs ended given the players that eventually beat him were Federer and Nadal respectively (and he gave both great men properly tough matches to boot). That sort of form breeds very high confidence in one’s game. Frances Tiafoe has a problem on his hands here. The young American will have to hit the cover off the ball, and serve at his best to come through it.


                          Kiki Bertens would probably have liked a less challenging opening round match than Pauline Parmentier. The Frenchwoman rises to playing at Roland Garros, and has down seeds three times in the past five years (Vinci in 2014, Niculescu in 2016 and Cornet last year). She is also operating at around a career high. However, with all due respect to Vinci et al, Bertens is a different kettle of fish. Even with the home crowd and a raised level of play, it shouldn’t be enough. But the standard for a R1 match may be through the roof [that is coming next year].

                          See above – Kvitova has pulled out of the tournament. Preview removed. Boo hoo.

                          Injury seems to dog Kaia Kanepi and goes some way to explain her wild movements up and down the rankings. However, whenever the Estonian is non-seeded she is a danger to those with a little number by their names, as she is a talented player and well suited to clay. It’s a big game, but she is also athletic and can defend well if need be, hence the past success (two QFs here previously). Julia Goerges is also well suited to the surface, with her own power baseliner game. In fact, I’m a little perplexed that she hasn’t done better than R4 once previously. That is part of the problem with Goerges though; there is a flatter to deceive element there. The result of this one feels like a toss-up.

                          So this is much more about the shining light that is Bianca Andreescu than her opponent. She says she is fit and ready, and given the two months out since Miami she should certainly be fresh. As noted elsewhere, she has been the breakout star of 2019 on the Women’s tour, and with her style and thought on court is a definite positive addition to the top of the Women’s game. On the other side of the net will be Marie Bouzkova, who was a good junior but hasn’t yet translated that to the seniors. Given her status as a lucky loser, this is a shot to nothing for the Czech.

                          Dayana Yastremska comes into the match with Carla Suarez Navarro in fine form, having won the title in Strasbourg last week (b Garcia in the final). The Ukranian is young, only 19, and this is her Roland Garros debut having not played the qualifying previously but got in by right of ranking this time. She is a pretty standard power baseline player, the sort who comes out of the Juniors loads, but a good one of the type and with high confidence. However Suarez Navarro is a big challenge on a clay court, because she is so different from the sort of up-and-down game that Yastresmka executes well and copes with well. That single-handed backhand short angle with heavy topspin may feature highly. I think the Spaniard will have enough to see the challenge off eventually, though she may fall a set down first (actually, that happens to Carla a lot!).

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Jo Konta through to R2 for the first time. A pretty scratchy performance, understandably given her personal history at the venue. But that duck is now broken, so hopefully she can play to her full potential from here.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Seeded casulaities so far:-

                              Day 1
                              Angie Kerber [5] - lost to youngster Anastasia Potapova as referenced above
                              Marco Cecchinato [16] - lost from two sets up to Nicolas Mahut, and thereby failed to defend any of his SF points from last year.

                              Day 2
                              Nikoloz Basilashvili [15] - not just beaten but hammered by Juan Ignacio Londero. The margin of it (4,1,3) was an eye-opener.
                              Julia Goerges [18] - beaten in two by Kaia Kanepi, which was always a possibility.
                              Felix Auger-Aliassime [25] - withdrew, was apparently hampered in the Lyon final on Saturday. The last time he will play a tournament in the week before a Slam?
                              Petra Kvitova [6] - withdrew, arm injury. A grade 2 muscle tear. Eep!


                              In current trouble is Caroline Wozniacki [13]. She won the first set 6-0 but is now 5-2 down in the third to Veronika Kudermetova, and is making wholly atypical unforced errors everywhere and ranting at her player box. Her best hope is her opponent getting tight, which has already happened at 3-0 in the deciding set. Frances Tiafoe [32] is two sets to one down to Filip Krajinovic, but the end there isn't imminent as set four is about to start.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                And some near misses - Diego Schwartzman [17] was taking to five by Martin Fucsovics, but came through the decider 6-2. Likewise Garbine Muguruza [19] vs Taylor Townsend.

                                Kudermetova stayed solid to serve it out 6-3. She finished it off with two volleys, the one at 30-all being an extraordinary (actually unnecessarily tight) angle.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Two more seeds fall, both the lowest ones - Alikasnadra Sasnovich beaten 8-6 in the decider by Polona Hercog and Frances Tiafoe going down 6-0 in the fifth against Filip Krajinovic. Tiafoe has a clear problem with five set matches. His record in them is now 1-6, and he completely ran out of steam in this one which has happened to him before. The decline was very sudden, to the point where I was left wondering if it was a combination of physical and mental.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Another one bites the dust - Daniil Medvedev beaten from two sets up by Pierre-Hugues Herbert. 7-5 in the fifth. That set and the 8-6 between Hercog and Sasnovich prompted the thought that the French is the one Slam that has instituted a final set tie-break as yet.

                                    Let's have the running updated R3 draws in this post, shall we? With the usual non-objective decisions about whether to put the name of the player who beat the seed in their place...

                                    Men's Singles

                                    Novak Djokovic Srb [1] vs Gilles Simon [i]Fra[/i] [26] Salvatore Caruso Ita [Q]
                                    Denis Shapovalov [i]Can[/i] [20] Jan-Lennard Struff Ger vs Borna Coric Cro [13]
                                    Fabio Fognini Ita [9] vs Roberto Bautista Agut Esp [18]
                                    Dusan Lajovic Srb [30] vs Alexander Zverev Ger [5]

                                    Dominic Thiem Aut [4] vs Kyle Edmund [i]GBr[/i] [28] Pablo Cuevas Uru
                                    Fernando Verdasco [i]Esp[/i] [23] Antoine Hoang Fra [WC] vs Gael Monfils Fra [14]
                                    Karen Khachanov Rus [10] vs Lucas Pouille [i]Fra[/i] [22] Martin Klizan Svk
                                    Felix Auger Aliassime [i]Can[/i] [25] Jordan Thompson Aus vs Juan Martin del Potro Arg [8]


                                    Stefanos Tsitspias Gre [6] vs Frances Tiafoe [i]USA[/i] [32] Filip Krajinovic Srb
                                    Stan Wawrinka Sui [24] vs Marin Cilic [i]Cro[/i] [11] Grigor Dimitrov Bul
                                    Marco Cecchinato [i]Ita[/i] [16] Nicolas Mahut Fra [WC] vs Diego Schwartman [i]Arg[/i] [17] Leonardo Mayer Arg
                                    Marco Berrettini [i]Ita[/i] [29] Casper Ruud Nor vs Roger Federer Sui [3]

                                    Kei Nishikori Jpn [7] vs Laslo Djere Srb [31]
                                    Alex de Minaur [i]Aus[/i] [21] Pablo Carreno Busta Esp vs Daniil Medvedev [i]Rus[/i] [12] Benoit Paire Fra
                                    Nikoloz Basilashvili [i]Geo[/i] [15] Juan Ignacio Londero Arg vs Guido Pella [i]Arg[/i] [19] Corentin Moutet Fra [WC]
                                    David Goffin Bel [27] vs Rafael Nadal Esp [2]


                                    Women's Singles

                                    Naomi Osaka Jpn [1] vs Maria Sakkari [i]Gre[/i] [29] Katerina Siniakova Cze
                                    Caroline Garcia [i]Fra[/i] [24] Anna Blinkova Rus [Q] vs Madison Keys USA [14]
                                    Serena Williams USA [10] vs Bianca Andreescu [i]Can[/i] [22] Sofia Kenin USA
                                    Hsieh Su-wei [i]Tpe[/i] [25] Andrea Petkovic Ger vs Ashleigh Barty Aus [8]

                                    Simona Halep Rou [3] vs Lesia Tsurenko Ukr [27]
                                    Daria Kasatkina [i]Rus[/i] [21] Monica Puig PRi vs Wang Qiang [i]Chn[/i] [16] Iga Swiatek Pol
                                    Aryna Sabalenka [i]Blr[/i] [11] Amanda Anisimova USA vs Anett Kontaveit [i]Est[/i] [17] Irina-Camelia Begu Rou
                                    Mihaela Buzarnescu [i]Rou[/i] [30] Ekaterina Alexandrova Rus vs Petra Kvitova [i]Cze[/i] [6] Sorana Cirstea [i]Rou[/i] Aliona Bolsova Esp [Q]


                                    Sloane Stephens USA [7] vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich [i]Blr[/i] [32] Polona Hercog Slo
                                    Garbine Muguruza Esp [19] vs Elina Svitolina Ukr [9]
                                    Belinda Bencic Sui [15] vs Donna Vekic Cor [23]
                                    Johanna Konta GBr [26] vs Kiki Bertens [i]Ned[/i] [4] Viktoria Kuzmova Svk

                                    Angelique Kerber [i]Ger[/i] [5] Anastasia Potapova [i]Rus[/i] Marketa Vondrousova Cze vs Carla Suarez Navarro Esp [28]
                                    Elise Mertens Bel [20] vs Anastasija Sevastova Lat [12]
                                    Caroline Wozniacki [i]Den[/i] [13] Veronika Kudermetova Rus vs Julia Goerges [i]Ger[/i] [18] Kaia Kanepi Est
                                    Petra Martic Cro [31] vs Karolina Pliskova Cze [2]
                                    Last edited by Janik; 01-06-2019, 09:00.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Janik View Post
                                      This Federer chappie seems quite handy.
                                      See also Nadal and Djokovic. No easing yourself in from any of them, they were all staggeringly good in their R1 matches. Tsitsipas was pretty decent an' all. The Men's side is looking even more locked up than ever...

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Is Kyle Edmund wearing Brian Rix's undies?

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          It certainly looks like the lights were off in the changing room when he got ready.
                                          Chardy about to serve at 4-5 in the deciding set...

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Chardy holds to 15, getting one to that flew off the tape to drop onto the baseline at 15-all. And then, to massive boos from the crowd, the ref calls it for bad light. Well, there is no breaker in the final set of the French so the finish was potentiallly hours away. Back tomorrow.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Is Federer playing in the faint hope something happens to Nadal if he can make the semi-final? Why would he bother to offer himself up to Nadal as some kind of sacrificial lamb in a semi-final?

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Re: Federer - might as well die a lion as a lamb?


                                                They say work your way into an event. I say ‘nah’, I’ll hit the ground running like Nole, Roger and Rafa. Of my day 2 choices:
                                                Tommy Paul took a set off Dominic Thiem and gave him a proper workout.
                                                Jeremy Chardy and Kyle Edmund thundered the ball at each other into the night without there being a winner.
                                                Pierre-Hugues Herbert shocked Daniil Medvedev in five.
                                                Filip Krajinovic shocked Frances Tiafoe in five.
                                                About the only flub on the Men’s side was Mischa Zverev going out fairly tamely in three to Richard Gasquet.
                                                With the Women, Pauline Parmentier may have lost in two but she did force Kiki Bertens into playing her best.
                                                Kaia Kanepi beat Julia Goerges.
                                                Marie Bouzkova has taken Bianca Andreescu to a final set (Canada might lose all its high hopes in R1!)
                                                And Carla Suarez Navarro beat Dayana Yastremska 2-6 7-60 6-0. Which is so in line with how I thought it would go in advance that I’m wondering if something Truman Show like is going on here.
                                                One slight let down was Sorana Cirstea vs Petra Kvitova, because it didn’t happen.

                                                So, um, there is some pressure to make as good a set of picks again for tomorrow today...

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                                                  #25
                                                  Day 3

                                                  Osaka [1] vs Schmiedlova - 2nd on Chatrier
                                                  Halep [3] vs Tomljanovic – 3rd on Chatrier
                                                  Ostapenko vs Azarenka - 2nd on Mathieu
                                                  Sabalenka [11] vs Cibulkova - 3rd on Mathieu
                                                  Muchova vs Kontaveit [17] - 2nd on Court 7

                                                  Millman vs A.Zverev [5] - 1st on Chatrier
                                                  Jarry vs Del Potro [8] - 1st on Lenglen
                                                  Bolelli [Q] vs Pouille [22] – 3rd on Lenglen
                                                  Fognini [9] vs Seppi - 1st on Mathieu
                                                  Lajovic [30] vs Monteiro [Q] - 2nd on Court 11


                                                  Naomi Osaka has won her last 14 straight Slam matches. Or, to put it another way, the last two titles. She is going to have a very significant chance of adding to those when the Tour rolls round to London in a month’s time but winning in Paris is her greatest challenge. Her prior record both on clay and at Roland Garros is patchy, but then that was true of all tournaments when she rocked up in New York last fall - she had only ever won one Tour title (or ITF one for that matter) at that point in her career. So, you know, past records mean little in her case. They mean more for Anna Karolina Schmeidlova though, as they build a sense that she could overturn the World No.1. She has won clay court titles, and played a final at Roland Garros albeit in the Juniors (Girls Singles). She is obviously not the dominant force that her opponent is, but with a solid game and comfort on the surface, she could possibly spring a big surprise...

                                                  The belief that this is your opponent’s least favoured Slam is not a straw that Alja Tomljanovic can clutch. Roland Garros is very clearly the location for Simona Halep. The Romanian is the defending champion, having been the runner-up the year before that and also in 2014. Whilst she is good on everything (you generally don’t become World No.1 otherwise), clay is where her game is at its most imposing. The defence, the covering, but also the ability to step into the ball and power winners down the line when the opportunity is there. It’s all set up to win this event. Her Aussie opponent is OK on clay, she has been to a Tour final on the surface, made the semi in Rabat, and had an impressive debut at Roland Garros back in 2014 taking some scalps (A.Radwanska, Schiavone). But she hasn’t done much recently and likely won’t challenge seriously here. So why am I highlighting this match? Well, without ever threatening to win, I think Tomljanovic is at least good enough to push Halep to play at 100%. And if she does, we get to see what nick the defending Women’s champion’s game is in.

                                                  One of the ties of the round in the Women’s draw is a meeting of two Grand Slam champions, Jelena Ostapenko and Victoria Azarenka. Both can be sparky presences on the court, though Azarenka has mellowed and matured somewhat with the life events she has experienced in the last few years. After real struggles she is probably moving forwards again now, whereas Ostapenko seems to be in no-man’s-land, unseeded for the first time at a Slam since rocking up in Paris in 2017. No-one paid her much attention in the first few days of that championship, but they were at the end of course as she took one of the unlikeliest Slam titles of recent years. Can a return to the rank-and-file see resurgence? Probably not, because there is a reason why her ranking has plummeted from the top 5 she was at after Wimbledon last year, i.e. under 12 months ago. And those are losses. Many losses. To many different players. 20 of her last 30 matches. Given the mess Ostapenko is currently in, I have to favour Azarenka in this one.

                                                  Another player to have slipped out of the list of seeds is Dominika Cibulkova, who is still a fighter but is also patently in the twilight of her career with false rumours repeatedly swirling of a retirement announcement. Cibulkova (which means ‘little onion’, btw, something I must have mentioned before) first broke through at Slam level at Roland Garros, making the Semis back in 2009 but since then clay hasn’t been particularly kind to her. Her defensive counter-punching style tends to work better on quicker surfaces. However, it could also be effective against an out-and-out power player such as, ooooh, Aryna Sabalenka. The thing with Sabalenka though is she hits so hard it tends to eliminate even the best defenders from the equation; the ball is either in, in which case it’s unreturnable or it’s out and Sabalenka loses the point. Given I’m tiping Aryna to land for a fortnight, I have to back her to win this one.

                                                  Those four matches are all on the show courts. The pick of the matches outside for me is Stuttgart finalist Anett Kontaveit against Prague finalist Karolina Muchova. Muchova has been a fairly later developer in Women’s Tennis terms – her run to the final in the Czech capital saw her break the top 100 for the first time aged 22. She only made her debut in a Slam in the US Open last year but then got to the third round of that defeating Muguruza along the way. She is a player on the rise and is part of the recent trend for a more varied and thoughtful game, with slices and drops mixed in with regular topspin from the baseline. She is more varied than Kontaveit for sure, but the Estonian has less need of other options as her ability to pound from the baseline and move in defence is of a very high order. The style will be contrasting, but I have to go with Anett to be too hot to handle overall.


                                                  The day opens on Chatrier with a Men’s match for once. I suppose I get why the French starts at 11am on its main courts, that does mean you can get four matches in on the day and the surface can certainly handle it, but the stands are always so sparse when these first matches get going. When they do arrive, they will, I think, be witnessing a seed under stress. And not just because Sascha Zverev puts himself under such whenever he plays Slams, but because John Millman is a good enough player to cause problems anyway. The Aussie is a very late bloomer (he is 29) but is up into the World’s top 50 these days. Given he has put himself in a winning position against Federer in a slam and not blinking (US Open R4 last year), he is unlikely to be intimidated if he gets close to the line in this one. Millman is yet to win a match at Roland Garros, but has done decently on clay away from the Slam. If Zverev struggles with the situation and his own patchy form, Millman is well good enough to pounce and take the scalp.

                                                  For me, the most interesting match in the Men’s R1 draw is that of Nicolas Jarry and Juan Martin del Potro. Jarry is a clay court specialist, and one in decent form having made the final in Lyon last week, losing oh so narrowly to A.Zverev. That will have hurt (Jarry is yet to win a Tour title, and particularly having won an equally close three-setter against the same player in Barcelona earlier in the spring), but it shows his game is in the right place ahead of the biggie. Where is Delpo’s game? In good nick, if the evidence of Rome is any guide. Good wins over Goffin and Ruud, and then a three setter against Djokovic with match points thrown in. Given JM’s history with injury, he must know better than any how to get up to speed rapidly. He’ll be ready, and that should mean he overpowers Jarry eventually. But it ought to be a quality encounter.

                                                  Simone Bolleli is a veteran these days, more known for doubles than singles (he regularly partners Fabio Fognini; they have won a Slam together). His singles ranking has been consistently outside the top 100 in recently. How many more chances to appear on a big court like this one are left to him? Bolleli, however, does remain a talented and extremely watchable lone operator, with a cerebral game that explains his doubles success. He has touch and feel about the court. But so does Lucas Pouille, who also has a great deal of power at his command. Pouille has had a really bizarre season – he has lost his first match in seven of his nine ATP level tournaments this season, went out in R2 of the other, but did make the Semis of the ninth. And what was that ninth. Er, only the Australian Open! Weird. The run of Tour level losses prompt Pouille to play a Challenger on clay between Barcelona and Madrid in search of some form and wins. He got that; he won the title. He also beat a bunch of players in the 100-250 bracket to do that, and that probably means he will find the belief to beat Bolleli today, but Lucas is sure vulnerable.

                                                  The first match on the new Mathieu court (which looks a wonderful arena, doesn’t it) is an all-Italian affair pitting Fabio Fognini, somewhat of a veteran, against Andreas Seppi, who is definitely in that category. They must have known each other and practiced with each other for years, given their shared nationality. They have also played a number of times through their careers, with the h2h standing at 4-4 (all but one match on clay). However the trend is very much in double F’s favour; Seppi won the first four meetings, and his last win was in 2010. Fognini’s four straight wins in the series include their last encounter, which was at this very venue three years ago and was over in straight sets. On a hard court or particularly grass, Seppi might have a chance of reversing that trend. But on clay, Fognini is clearly superior. As long as his head is right (always an open question with Fabio), he should win this.

                                                  Like the Women’s matches today, the outside court fare for the Men looks a little dull. However there is something to watch in the Dusan Lajovic – Thiago Monteiro match. This is almost entirely about Lajovic; was his run to the final of the Monte Carlo Masters (which included wins over Goffin and Thiem) a fluke? The answer is ‘probably’ as there has been little around it to back it up, out in R1 in Madrid and losing to Dan Evans (on a clay court!) in the Rome qualifiers. That may put him at risk of a shock against a clay specialist like the Brazilian Monteiro, who has the comfort of three wins in qualifying behind him. It’s probably not a match for the casual fan, but an aficionado may draw a lot from it.

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