Rafa’s Parisian Pad

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Now then!

[Janik]

Backhand into the net. 5-4. All unforced errors on third shots of the rally - Thiem didn't get a single standard rally shot into court from the second point of the game on (three times he didn't have to).

[Janik]

Up to 5-6. 15-all so far.

[Janik]

30-all

[Janik]

Djoker survives a barrage at the net. 40-30.

[Janik]

Deuce.

[Janik]

Djokovic doesn't convert game point. Deuce again.

[Janik]

mp no.3...

[Janik]

Huge in-to-in forehand down the line. Thiem wins!

[Gawpus]

Oooft. Some shot for a winner, that.

[Janik]

Women's final was a damp squib - Vondrousova never got over her nerves. From a British perspective watching it was rather frustrating - what an opportunity Konta blew yesterday. Though, actually, that was also nerves so who is to say Jo wouldn't have been worse than Marketa proved to be.

Congratluations to Ash Barty, though. A French-Wimbledon double is definitely possible. She needs to win another Slam as the Eurosport commentators reported her parents were not at this one - the clay expectations were so low they only planned on coming to Europe for grass and couldn't arrange to fly over in the short notice resulting from the weather delays!

[Gangster Octopus]

Just catching up. Ever thought of making a living writing about tennis Janik?

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Will Thiem stand a chance today or might they as well give Rafa the trophy when he walks on court?

[Sporting]

Just catching up. Ever thought of making a living writing about tennis Janik?

Maybe he already does?

[Janik]

The Wingco route? But these sort of things are of the moment in a way the Wing Commander is not. If I were trying to make a living from this, I wouldn't be giving them away for free!
I have only ever vaguely considered it, because I can't see a way in that doesn't involve doing precisely that for longer than I can possibly afford. So I'll continue to be paid for something else, and knock these off in my spare time.

[Janik]

Finals

Men’s

Dominic Thiem Aut [4] vs Rafael Nadal Esp [2]
After two weeks of intense battle we have... exactly the same final as last year? Will we get exactly the same outcome as well? Very probably. So where is some hope for Thiem in this?
Well, he struck the ball beautifully at times in his semi against Djokovic and he also handle the difficult windy conditions well. Many of the rain breaks were at times when Thiem had looked in charge of the match and would really rather not have been interrupted, but each time he came back and refocused. There was a sense of belief that he could beat his man. But that probably stemmed from having done so recently on the same court (the 2017 QF). He doesn’t have the same happy memories of taking on Nadal in Paris, not after the 4,3,2 annihilation in last year’s final. Or the 3,4,0 in the 2017.
What Thiem does have going for him is a decent overall h2h against Rafa at 4-8. Dominic won their last meeting in Barcelona 4&4 and that was on a clay court. He took Rafa the whole distance in their last Slam encounter, the 2018 US Open QF (Nadal won a deciding set tie-break 7-5 to clinch it). That was their only non-clay court meeting, with Thiem being 3-3 in their last three clay court matches. So positive. But then a dig down into the details. 2017 Italian Open SFs – Thiem in straight sets. French Open SFs a few weeks later – Nadal turns the tables completely. 2018 Madrid Masters – again Thiem in two. 2018 French Open Final – see above for the score. 2019 Barcelona QF – Thiem in straight sets. You know, a theme is emerging here...
Beating Rafa on a clay court is tough. Very tough. Dominic has proved himself a truly excellent player to have managed it four times across his career. But beating Nadal on a clay court over five sets? That, let’s remember, has only ever happened twice. Robin Soderling pulled it off in R4 in 2009 and Novak Djokovic threw his entire personality into willing himself to do so in the 2015 Quarters. Given 2019 is a decade ago, that is the only defeat Nadal has suffered here in a decade. And it took the ironist will in Tennis all it’s might to achieve it.
Is Thiem tough enough to do the same. No. Sorry, but no. So he will have to go down the Soderling path, 100% power on every single shot. All guns blazing from the very first point. He will also need to serve well as any free points he can get are vital. As for Rafa? Execute the game plan. Just as he did against Federer in the Semis. Drag the player wide, get the ball jumping high off the court to reduce the power of the opponents shots, hit into the space created and follow in to the net to pop away any scrambled desperate dig up.
With Rafa the weathervane shot is the backhand these days. What used to be almost a placeholder is now an attacking weapon in its own right, particularly when the takes the ball on the rise and thumps if down the line. That allows him to take a more central position on the baseline than was his wont in his early career, as now he doesn’t have to get the forehand into play to win the points. Or to put it another way, Rafa of 2019 is better than Rafa of 2009! And that is a scary thought for Thiem’s camp.
Because it’s a Grand Slam final there will be nerves for both players, even Rafa despite him having been in such situations so many times before. He has spoken about that – these are still the defining matches of his career. But more so for Thiem, who only has the experience of last year to fall back on. Intriguingly, he has spent his morning focused on Tennis, but somebody else’s rather than his own; he was just in the players box to watch girlfriend Kiki Mladenovic win the Women’s Doubles title alongside Timea Babos (they beat Duan/Zheng 6-2 6-3, the result lifts Mladenovic to the World No.1 ranking for the first time in her career). It would be nice to think this might be a good way of preparing mentally for a Men’s Final. We will see. It’s another straw to clutch at.
Who am I kidding? Nadal in three.

[Janik]

Early break to... Thiem! Deserved too, he has been marginally the better player so far. Superb defence and backhand slicing. But can he maintain it?

[Janik]

Huh. Break straight back,

[Janik]

This is superb at the moment.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Just getting silly, this, now really

[tee rex]

I'd love to dig up the first "Is it all over for Nadal?" piece - or even OTF thread. Must have been a decade ago now.

It's just crazy, really.

(Edit: OK, a decade is exaggerated. But you know ... ages).

[Janik]

Probably around the time of the knee injury in ~2015. But let's remember that players were meant to win all their slams by the time they were 30. Maybe one or two aged 31/32 as some kind of veteran last hurrah (think Sampras at the US Open of 2002, less than a month after his 31st birthday in what turned out to be his last pro tournament). Nadal is 33, Djokovic 32 and Federer 37 going on 38.