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    #26
    Compare that to other teams in the league and get back to me.

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      #27
      Chavez Ravine is why you didnít see that many Chicanos in Dodger Stadium until Fernandomania in 1981.

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        #28
        Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
        Compare that to other teams in the league and get back to me.
        Well those were the ones off the top of my head.

        I mean, is that a well-known thing? The Padres had an anti-Latino bias? I'd literally never heard that until today. I know there was a general bias in MLB which is why so many adopted anglicised first names.

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          #29
          Culture Clash (the Chicano comedy/theater group) did a really good play called Chavez Ravine telling the story. I don't know if it was ever filmed, but it was a great production from the early 00s that they've brought back a few times. It starts off with the ghosts of Palo Verde, La Loma, and Bishop visiting Fernando as he's about to pitch in his debut.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0OdGXJFxqE

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            #30
            No, it isn't like the Red Sox having to be dragged kicking and screaming into integration or the Cubs being owned by Trump fanboys whose father is racist AF.

            It was just a personal observation having lived there and paid some attention to the team. The focus was long on their current and retired military white guy fanbase (thus all the camo and salutes to the troops), rather than taking advantage of the city's diversity and its unmatched proximity to a baseball mad country that has no MLB teams. All of which was more striking in SD than it would have been in Minneapolis or Kansas City.

            I think that they have a real opportunity to make their mark here if they can find some pitching.

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              #31
              OK. I just wondered if I'd missed something. All I tend to get news from is this thread, various Facebook groups and the MLB app so it's easy for me to miss something big.

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                #32
                Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                There is an excellent PBS Frontline documentary on that situation.

                danielmak, I'm sure that I've said this before, but I feel very strongly that it isn't sensible to look at contracts that way. Instead, I would counsel looking at the overall commitment with the understanding that the club is always overpaying for the "out" years at the end and often underpaying for the initial and/or middle years. One also needs to consider the time value of money, which makes it more attractive for the club to "backload" any contract. I can assure you that is the framework in which both clubs and players look at it.

                As to Machado's decision, I have to think that spending six+ months a year in San Diego as opposed to the South Side has more than a little to do with it.
                I generally agree with you about getting a good deal early on and then paying for that later, which would (keeping with the Manny and Harper money) mean that a team is getting these guys for 30mil now when maybe they are worth more and then paying 30mil late when they won't be anywhere near that value. And, of course, teams often find ways to get out of some of that money, as we saw with the Cano trade this off-season. The problem for me, which really isn't a big problem since I'm not writing the checks, is that teams know so much more about payroll flexibility and roster construction. Dan O'Dowd had a nice breakdown on MLB Now today. He basically argued that Philly could get more WAR from 3 years of Keichel, Kimbrell, and one other guy (can't remember--maybe Marwin Gonzalez), who would be signed for 3 years each and cost the same as Harper for the next 3 years (assuming Harper gets more than Manny). But they'd be off the hook for the money after 3 years. Harper is only one player. Would you rather have only him for 10 or those other three for three. Analysts agree that Harper's great but then they can't agree how great given his rollercoaster stats.

                So, what I'm saying is that I agree with you that in some cases a player is underpaid early and makes up for it later. But where we may or may not diverge in our thinking is that I just would not do a long term deal with anyone at this point unless it was someone already in my system and really young (e.g., the deal the Angels did with Trout or a deal that the Indians might do with LIndor).

                One other note, the NYT had a real nice piece about long term contracts and WAR yesterday or the day before. They basically concluded that the first contract for a young player can work out. The second contract almost never works out. They were including extensions signed to eat up arbitration years and maybe some free agency years depending on the deal. For example, Puljols singed a deal with the Cardinals, which they rated excellent. But the deal with the Angels was horrific. In this sense, they are agreeing with you UA: the Cardinals got him on a steal of a deal. But then they moved on and let the Angles have him for a horrible deal. The Rangers got prime value from ARod and so did the Yankees for a couple years. Then the Yankees were stuck.
                Last edited by danielmak; 22-02-2019, 07:56.

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                  #33
                  David Roth on owners not spending money is very good.

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                    #34

                    It's an interesting piece. And I get the tension between figuring out the minimum one can do to get more wins versus what one could do right now to have a better chance to get more wins. I don't agree with the Commissioner that all teams are trying to win; he's playing a game of semantics. Yes, the players want to win; nobody is putting on a uniform and thinking they will just not try to win. But that's not the same as constructing a roster that can win over 162. I think everyone knows that who follows the game. We have 1/3 going for it, a 1/3 figuring out if they should go for it or tank, and 1/3 that are tanking.

                    The thing that I didn't mention in my previous posts about not doing long-term deals is my conflicted sense about what star power means in baseball compared to other sports. The last time I went to a baseball game to see a player was when Nomo was in his rookie year. Beyond that, I go see baseball to see a game. I know that star power can draw people who care less about the sport, but since we're talking about 18 players and the star batting 4 times (on average) and perhaps rarely touching the ball in the field, it's debatable that anyone other than a pitcher can draw a crowd unless something special is happening: McGwire and Sosa chasing the home run record, for example. It seems to me that winning brings people to the ballpark more than anything else. If a team increases the chance to win by spreading money around then they have a better chance of drawing fans. Having a star gives a team someone to put on a billboard but does Stanton really draw people like Lebron or will Manny draw people like Sid the Kid? I doubt it. Baseball seems more about (A) a day at the ballpark with family or friends (an experience) or (B) a draw because the person loves baseball. But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe people see Manny on a billboard and think they should go to Petco.

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                      #35
                      Did you know, that Ken Griffey jr is still getting paid about $5 million per year from Seattle?

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                        #36
                        The Padres have filled their social media with Manny. Here's Manny at a press conference. Here's Manny on a giant poster. Here's Manny in the batting cage. Here's Manny putting on a SD cap. Here's Manny hugging a new team mate.

                        They're certainly trying to build that star player excitement that Daniel posted about upthread.

                        It seems a little bit desperate.

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                          #37
                          Kershaw already shutdown for a little bit. He is probably a good example of UA's point about payment. Kershaw was a true star on cheap contracts, got paid closer to his value, and is now one of the most expensive players in baseball but is injured regularly and less effective than in the past. It will probably be hard to treat the combination of what is probably a hefty contract with what will likely be regular DL stints this season as some kind of financial balance for previous underpayment. And Kershaw is already a Dodger legend. But the cold economist would say that they should have let him explore the market when he was considering his opt out at the end of last season in the same way they let Grenke walk.

                          It's funny, the Dodgers have had more success in the last three years than at any point in their history but I just have a hard time liking this upper management team. They have not signed a free agent that can stay healthy, they push for a plattoon system that make it hard for players to get in a rhythm, and most of their trades are driven by various exchanges of bad contracts. They seem to be fantasy baseball guys who actually got control of a team.

                          I have no idea how that first paragraph led to the second paragraph, but there you go.

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                            #38
                            Well this is some bullshit:


                            Like a good number of other content service providers shying away from the Smart TV App concept in order to concentrate and streamline all their energy and efforts towards mobile communication and game console streaming, MLB.TV App has followed suit.



                            Customers can find out list of App streaming supported devices at the following link: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/devices


                            At this point there has been no discussion whether this will be a temporary or permanent decision. However, schedule to remove the icon from the dashboard and/or launcher bar have been set to mid-February for webOS models and month of May for NetCast models.

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                              #39
                              I don't understand, what are they removing it from?

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                                #40
                                Definitely LG TVs, and sounds like others. You might still be able to get it via Android TV (I assume the app worked there before). Guess I'm going to have to use my Xbox to watch, but it was really convenient having it in the TV itself.

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                                  #41
                                  I use a Roku, so that should still be OK. Why are Smart TV apps dying a death?

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                                    #42
                                    Can't you just 'cast' it from the PC to an available TV?

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                                      #43
                                      Bryce Harper to nem Phillies

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                                        #44
                                        Harper's deal is reported to be 13 years $330mil with no opt-outs and no trades. On one hand, the AAV is such that he Phillies can make other deals and perhaps by the end it won't matter that they are paying high given they are lower than the market now. I still don't see this player in the same way that others see him. On MLB Network they talk about him as an "near certain hall of famer." If we remove his 10 WAR season and balance that out by removing his lowest WAR, which I think is 1.1, he's basically a 2 WAR player. That's not very impressive for a corner outfielder. I think people are confusing his good hair for elite play. I don't have feelings one way or the other about the Phillies but I hope for their sake he's closer to that 10 WAR player than the recurring upper 1 WAR player.

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                                          #45
                                          I hope this makes Brett Kavanaugh sad.

                                          It does make it even more likely that we will go to Philly for a game or two this season.

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                                            #46
                                            His WAR in 2018 would have been much higher if it wasn't for some really bad defense. I wasn't following closely enough to know what happened there--in most of his other seasons he was barely above 0 dWAR, or just under, but last year he was -3.2 dWAR. I don't know if he was playing injured, or if those stats look worse on paper than he actually performed in games.

                                            I think that him being in the top 10 all of the big hitting categories pretty consistently, plus being at the top of walks in his better seasons shows that he is an elite hitter with patience at the plate. He's already in the top 100 for all-time adjusted OPS+ (though he's not a freak like Trout, who is currently tied with Rogers Hornsby at #5).

                                            I *do* think he does seem to be slightly inflated because of his big personality and endorsements. Would I want him on the Dodgers? Absolutely. Would I give him a 13 year deal? Hell no.

                                            The NYT had a really good graphic on players' performances while under mega contracts.

                                            https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...contracts.html

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                                              #47
                                              Harper was injured for part of the season and clearly played the rest without his usual abandon, so as not to get hurt before his big payday. Both things were reflected in a visible loss of range, which may be overvalued in dWAR.

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                                                #48
                                                Funny, as I'm typing this MLB Network is using an old piece from MLB Now that I was about to summarize. The dWAR was discussed in this segment (when originally aired) that admittedly cherry picked bad footage of his defense but the gist was that the eye test matched the stats: he was very bad in center field last year. Almost everyone says that he should not be in center so the move back to right should help.

                                                But the other thing that was highlighted in that report (which will be done by the time I finish typing this) is that his strong arm and elite speed that showed in his first two years have basically gone. He seemed to morph into a traditional slugger. Of course, at 26 there's time to get back to that all-around player status.

                                                BTW, when I think about him through the lens of the two teams I follow: I have no idea who is going to be in right for the Dodgers but I would have rather had Puig. For the Yankees, I'd rather have Judge. But, I'd much rather have Harper than Stanton. That Stanton contract is going to be very bad by the time it ends. Hell, it was bad last year at that price point.
                                                Last edited by danielmak; 01-03-2019, 02:24.

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                                                  #49
                                                  It occurs to me that the Phillies are expecting the National League to adopt the DH during the term of this contract.

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                                                    #50
                                                    Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                                    It occurs to me that the Phillies are expecting the National League to adopt the DH during the term of this contract.
                                                    It seems to be taken for granted during the various expert discussions that the next CBA will include a universal DH as a trade off for some of the pace of play initiatives that Manfred is unwilling to implement even though the current CBA allows him to make moves on his own. So, I agree, they were certainly thinking about that length because he could DH. The funny thing is that besides Nelson Cruz, the old style DH is basically gone from the game. AL teams prefer to use the DH as a rotation option. Although Stanton and JD Martinez are basically full-time DHs at this point.

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