Tokyo Calling - Rugby 2019

[Alex Anderson]

85th minute. Why the fuck did I watch this game.

[Ray de Galles]

YES!

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

I think Japan are going to suffer last game heartbreak again. As long as Scotland get a bonus point win against Russia and Ireland beat Samoa, Scotland would need to either beat Japan by 8 points or beat them by less but 4 tries to 3. I think the odds are still in Scotland's favour.

[Alex Anderson]

Know what you were trying to do, Samoa. And it wasn't your fault. You're in a pool involving Scotland. Had Scotland been another pool, Japan would have run those four tries in in the first half.

It's not about the failing - it's about failing in as convolutedly agonisingly tortuously drawn-out a way as possible. A way where you can actually see the "victory" - in this case Samoa having the ball in the 83rd minute - and get a taste of what that result would be like ... before the knife goes in.

Japan are great. As Geech says, would love them to be in anyone else's group. But Japan will lose next Sunday ... by six points.

[Ray de Galles]

I think Japan are going to suffer last game heartbreak again. As long as Scotland get a bonus point win against Russia and Ireland beat Samoa, Scotland would need to either beat Japan by 8 points or beat them by less but 4 tries to 3. I think the odds are still in Scotland's favour.

The ITV commentary said Japan are through with a losing bonus point against Scotland whatever else happens. Is that not the case (I am sitting in the stand at Wimbledon so can't work it out myself!).

[ursus arctos]

If Scotland get a bonus point win against Russia, they will have 10 points to Japan's 14. So if they don't score four tries and win by 7 or less, Japan will have at least one more point.

Other situations could involve the tiebreakers, which I am unsure of.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Yes, I think Scotland need to deny Japan a further bonus point in beating them, or score another one themselves in beating Japan while allowing them one. It's looking likely it will go into the final game with Japan on 14 and Scotland on 10, with first tiebreaker being result between teams tied on points. If Russia play like KGB hitmen in defence against Scotland to thank their hosts and deny Scotland the bonus point, the equation becomes simpler - Scotland would need to win with a bonus point and deny Japan one.

[Alex Anderson]

And, of course, needing the BP win v Russia means limited ability to rest key players - not that we could really afford to anyway - while Japan have a free 8 days.

Tragedian in me thinks, like Rogin, that Japan are due a slip and losing by 8 points next Sunday would allow everyone to feel painfully sorry for their "second team".

The bitter life experience in me knows Scotland will win by 7 next Sunday.

[Tony C]

[QUOTE=Ray de Galles

- that any team in any sport can actually gerrymander their path through a tournament, however much it gets talked about (particularly where England are concerned, it appears to me).[/QUOTE]

I think it's more idle speculative thought than gerrymandering and I'm not sure it's specifically an English trait.

[Ray de Galles]

It's the "idle speculative thought" I'm referring to when I say that gerrymandering gets "talked about".

I can't recall any discussion of other major football or rugby teams losing games to navigate to an "easier" side of the draw but it's occurred in the last world cups in both codes with regard to England and previously. It does appear to be a peculiarity.

[Sporting]

I never get this easier side of the ďraw thing. Surely you need to beat the best at some point and why not do so in earlier rounds?

[ursus arctos]

The concept is deeply ingrained in Italian football culture, as are all manner of conspiracy theories.

[Ray de Galles]

Tonga have given up ten points in the opening six minutes from deliberate overthrows on their own line out. One led to a penalty in front of the posts, the other went straight to a French player on halfway and they cantered a try in.

[Ray de Galles]

17-7 at half time, Tonga gave up another try dozing at a tapped free kick but score after a passage of lumbering pick and drives. They barely look coached at all and are playing like a scratch invitational side.

Tongan lock Sam Louisi has twice luckily escaped a yellow card for use of the shoulder, I'm amazed he's still on the pitch.

[Levin]

What a try.

But you can't just do those moments and not do the basic stuff.

[Ray de Galles]

A hugely improved second half from Tonga but finishes 23-21 to France. Tonga get a second try with a minute left but France secure the ball on the restart to prevent a tense final play.

If Tonga had been switched on in the first half they'd have won the game.

[Tony C]

It's the "idle speculative thought" I'm referring to when I say that gerrymandering gets "talked about".

I can't recall any discussion of other major football or rugby teams losing games to navigate to an "easier" side of the draw but it's occurred in the last world cups in both codes with regard to England and previously. It does appear to be a peculiarity.

On 5 Live half an hour ago Sonia McLaughlin and Rory Lawson were discussing how the French press are suggesting that France will put out a second string fifteen against England next week to negotiate what they see as an easier passage.

I realise that this is just one example but I am convinced that it's not unique (certainly in Spain and Italy where dedicated sports dailies need content this kind of speculation is rife come WC time) and certainly not peculiar to English sport.

[Cesar Rodriguez]

I never get this easier side of the ďraw thing. Surely you need to beat the best at some point and why not do so in earlier rounds?

Good point, plus factor in that all 8 prior RWC winners were undefeated during the respective tournaments they won.

Also, the idea that you can throw one match and then pickup right where you left off completely overlooks that you cant just turn form on and off like a tap. If you are serious about winning a tournament throwing a game is a momentum killer, it takes all the wind out your sails.

[Ray de Galles]

Biggar is passed fit to play Fiji on Wednesday so Wales' only changes are James Davies and Moriaty in for Tipuric and Wainwright with Navidi moving to blindside flanker to accommodate the latter. The motivation from those seems to be squad rotation, though I imagine it's also because the coaches expect Fiji to do less at the breakdown.

Moriaty's discipline worries me a little against a side as physical as Fiji and Davies' presence triggers my latent fear we could fall prey to our usual failing of taking them on at their own game and start playing Sevens rugby. I presume the coaches and AWJ will be drumming it in to the 23 that we can't afford to.

[Ray de Galles]

South Africa secure the bonus point within 18 minutes, Canada seem spent by their relatively good showing against the All Blacks.

[Ray de Galles]

Now a red card for Canada after a stupid reckless "clearout" of a ruck with the shoulder to a payer's head from Larsen. Why are players still making these insane decisions? If SA keep their foot on the pedal we might be looking at a mammoth score.

[Alex Anderson]

Bit of an exhibition from the reserve scrum half.

[Etienne]

Second half is all Canada.

[Alex Anderson]

I can even jinx the Boks. It's a gift.

[Alex Anderson]

Wondering if Canada and Namibia have anything left with which to hit each other.