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When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

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    When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

    Current odds from William Hill:

    Tiger Woods 7-4
    Lee Westwood 20-1
    Padraig Harrington 22-1
    Phil Mickelson 25-1
    Hunter Mahan 35-1
    Steve Stricker 35-1
    Retief Goosen 35-1
    Sergio Garcia 45-1
    50-1 bar (and in fact most are 66-1 or more).

    Yes, that's pretty much "if Tiger doesn't win, you can put a quid on virtually everyone else in the field, and probably expect to get your money back".

    Insane odds, surely, given that Tiger (despite last week's WGC win) has failed to deliver in any of the majors so far this year. Okay, so too have any of the other "favourites", and after Cabrera, Glover and Cink I'm not sticking my neck out to predict who might pop up out of the longrange shots this week to win (although I always have an each-way 50p on Sean O'Hair, and Robert Allenby also seems like a good punt at 90-1). But Tiger at less than 2-1, and the second favourite at 20-1? There's got to be something wrong with that market, hasn't there?

    #2
    When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

    Nothing wrong with the market, betting is one of the most responsive and efficient markets there is.

    Betters, on the other hand, are consistently stoopid, and rarely more so than here (though see also Newcastle as massive favourites for the CCC).

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      #3
      When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

      Heh, agreed, Toro. Even so, for Tiger to be such an overwhelming favourite as that, it implies that at around half the money placed on the PGA by all William Hill's punters so far has been for him to win. That's a lot of people who have bet on a very short-priced favourite, not expecting a massive return, in a golf tournament where it's Tiger v 124 other players.

      Even when he was in his utmost, unbeatable pomp, Woods lost this thing to the likes of Rich Beem. I think 7-4 on Tiger this week is a crazy bet to be "certain" about, enough to put money on him.

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        #4
        When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

        Woods has won 14 of the 49 majors he's entered during his career, which while an incredible success rate should give him odds of about 5/2 rather than 7/4.

        I'm not big into golf but it irritates me when people denigrate Padraig Harrington's majors with all this "asterisk" stuff, as though Woods would have been a dead certainty to win the competitions had he been taking part, when on balance he'd have been far more likely not to win them.

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          #5
          When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

          Woods actually opened at 3/2 at some US sports books, which is even nuttier.

          Part of what's going on here is that Hazeltine is thought to be an especially Tiger-friendly course (even though he lost to Rich Beem last time the tournament was played there), but it really does look like the line is being influenced by "dumb money".

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            #6
            When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

            Fair enough (and I've done it myself). No-one's going to describe Roger Federer's tennis majors this season as "asterisk" ones because Nadal wasn't playing, after all. You can only beat the players who were there against you on the day, etc. It was just that Harrington (who'd spent over a decade trying to win one major, never mind three) suddenly won the two that Woods was absent from. It kind of highlighted what other players (not only Harrington) could have been achieving.

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              #7
              When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

              Looks like the bookies might know a thing or two.

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                #8
                When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

                It certainly does, now - Harrington's an amazing 5-1 against to beat Woods by 2 shots today ('amazing', in that that's precisely what he did only yesterday).

                Perhaps the tactic for many is, indeed, to slap a big amount on Woods at his pre-tournament odds, whatever they are, and then if it does come to pass (like with today) that he's likely to win but catchable by some others, lay their potential losses off after the third round. A £20 bet on Woods on Thursday morning would now be expecting a profit of £35; you could now put another £5 on Harrington, and a couple of quid on a couple of others, and pretty much be guaranteed to make some money overall.

                It's still not definite that either Woods or Harrington will win, of course - there are seven or eight other players today who could win with a round of 67 or 68, not least England's Ross Fisher - but their odds of 20-1 or more (even on Yang Yung-eun, who will be playing with Woods in the final pairing) reflects what a surprise it would be if somebody did a Beem, Campbell or Johnson and took this with Woods breathing down their necks.

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                  #9
                  When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

                  Regardless of the odds and the poor value that you get with Tiger, I still backed him at 15/8 at the start, as I did at Torrey Pines last year. And like last year, he's making hard work of his final day lead. This is getting very interesting.

                  Harrington has blown up. Oh Paddy, oh Paddy.

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                    #10
                    When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

                    Deserved win for Yang. Some excellent approach shots on the back nine.

                    Tiger missed over half a dozen putts between ten and twenty feet. Even an average pro would expect to sink at least two of those. It's cost Tiger the title.

                    So an Asian and a South American won majors this year, and no European. Strange days.

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                      #11
                      When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

                      But Tiger at less than 2-1, and the second favourite at 20-1? There's got to be something wrong with that market, hasn't there?

                      Bookmakers 1-0 Rogin

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                        #12
                        When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

                        Apparently there's a guy living somewhere in Scotland who can, without prompting, name all four major winners in 2009. This may be a hoax, it sounds a bit far-fetched to me.

                        If you want to be remembered, come second.

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                          #13
                          When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

                          Harrington's disaster at the eighth reminded me of when John Daly hit six or seven balls into the water at some Florida tournament a decade ago, eventually posting a score of 18 for the hole.

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                            #14
                            When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

                            Don't underestimate the impact Yang's victory will have on the game in Korea. When Se-Ri Pak won the Women's US Open in 1998, she was viewed as a bit of a one-off phenom, but now there are something like 20 Korean golfers in the women's top 50.

                            Golf's always been huge in the far East, but despite occasional successes on the US Tour their players had not before got that huge psychological breakthrough of winning a major championship. In fact, the role of the oriental player before in majors has always been the smiling, crowd-pleasing runner-up, like Aoki, Katayama and Lu Liang-Huan. Now that the ice has been broken, and it's proven an oriental player can win a major tournament (beating Tiger Woods to do so, no less) there will be millions of kids in Korea and Japan out playing golf with even more fervour than before. Yang's win could do for golf out there what Seve Ballesteros' Open wins did for golf on continental Europe in the 1980s.

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                              #15
                              When bookmakers go mad - the 2009 USPGA

                              Saw in the paper last night that the four major winners this year have been priced at 150-1, 125-1, 150-1 and 175-1. Mugs' game, anyone?

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