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    The OTF Formula 1 prediction game

    With a big nod to Sean's football prediction game, I've had an idea for an F1 prediction game, albeit we're coming up to the third race of 2018 now.

    For each race, there will be six different trios of drivers. You have to predict the order in which they are classified in the race (DNFs are classified by number of completed laps) according to the Formula 1 website.

    Scoring:
    • Correctly predicting the order of the three drivers = 2 points
    • Correctly predicting the top finisher of the three drivers = 1 point
    • 0 points otherwise

    Mathematicians will know that there are six ways of ordering three things, (ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA) so one of these ways will be the 2 pointer, and another way will be the 1 pointer, with the other 4 not scoring.

    For example, let's say one of the six trios for a race is Alonso, Bottas, Ocon (ALO BOT OCO).
    You have to guess the ordering of these three drivers.
    In the race, BOT finishes 2nd, ALO is 7th and OCO doesn't finish.

    longeared guessed BOT OCO ALO - scores 1 point for getting the top driver, BOT, correct
    Inca guessed ALO BOT OCO - scores 0 points (you can't get any without picking the best driver)
    foxy guessed BOT ALO OCO - scores 2 points for getting it spot on
    Kevin guessed OCO BOT ALO - scores 0 points

    Then for each race there'll be a 2 point bonus question too.

    The issue we have is about the deadline - before qualifying, or before the race....? Hmm

    EDIT - apologies for changing this after posting it, but it needs to be 2 points and 1 point, otherwise were were awarding twice as many points for getting the second and third drivers right as for getting the first driver right. This makes it equal. And so the bonus is reduced to 2 points as well.

    EDIT 2 - Here are the abbreviations currently used for F1 drivers.

    VET = Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
    RAI = Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)

    PER = Sergio Perez (Force India)
    OCO = Esteban Ocon (Force India)

    GRO = Romain Grosjean (Haas)
    MAG = Kevin Magnussen (Haas)

    VAN = Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren)
    ALO = Fernando Alonso (McLaren)

    HAM = Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
    BOT = Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)

    RIC = Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull)
    VER = Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

    HUL = Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)
    SAI = Carlos Sainz Jr (Renault)

    ERI = Marcus Ericsson (Sauber)
    LEC = Charles Leclerc (Sauber)

    GAS = Pierre Gasly (Toro Rosso)
    HAR = Brendon Hartley (Toro Rosso)

    STR = Lance Stroll (Willams)
    SIR = Sergey Sirotkin (Williams)
    Last edited by Kevin S; 26-04-2018, 08:22.

    #2
    F1 Chinese Grand Prix 2018

    1: HAM, RIC, VET
    2: HUL, MAG, SAI
    3: ALO, RAI, VER
    4: GAS, PER, SIR
    5: GRO, LEC, OCO
    6: ERI, STR, VAN

    Bonus: Predict the gap in seconds, to one decimal place, between the winner and second place driver (closest wins).

    Comment


      #3
      1: VET, HAM, RIC
      2: HUL, MAG, SAI
      3: RAI, VER, ALO
      4: GAS, PER, SIR
      5: LEC, GRO, OCO
      6: ERI, STR, VAN

      5.8 seconds

      I would go for before qualifying in order to discourage groupthink

      Comment


        #4
        Cheers ursus, I think before qualifying is best too.

        Here's my guesses.

        HAM RIC VET
        MAG SAI HUL
        RAI ALO VER
        GAS SIR PER
        OCO GRO LEC
        VAN ERI STR

        7.2 seconds

        Comment


          #5
          Ok, I guess we'll treat this as a trial run, but if anyone wants to play there's about 8h 35m left before qualifying starts.

          Comment


            #6
            VET HAM RIC
            MAG SAI HUL
            VER RAI ALO
            PER GAS SIR
            OCO GRO LEC
            STR VAN ERI

            4.9 seconds

            Comment


              #7
              The results were:

              RIC HAM VET
              HUL SAI MAG
              RAI VER ALO
              PER SIR GAS
              OCO GRO LEC
              VAN STR ERI

              8.9

              Scores
              ursus - 3
              Kevin S - 4+2
              nmrfox - 3

              If that worked ok, we can start afresh next time in case others fancy joining in. Also I should probably randomise the trios rather than just choosing what I think would be interesting.

              Comment


                #8
                F1 2018 Azerbaijan Grand Prix

                The trios this time have been picked using a randomiser and are in no particular order.
                Please enter your predictions before the start of qualifying, which is 1700 AZT on Saturday 28 April (1400 BST, 1300 UTC)

                SAI SIR HAM
                VAN STR LEC
                OCO PER RIC
                VER ERI VET
                ALO GAS MAG
                GRO BOT HUL

                Bonus: Predict the number of finishers.

                Comment


                  #9
                  OK, I'll go first then.

                  HAM SAI SIR
                  VAN STR LEC
                  RIC PER OCO
                  VET VER ERI
                  ALO MAG GAS
                  BOT HUL GRO

                  16

                  Comment


                    #10
                    I had to rack my brains as to who SIR was, and briefly reinstated Jean Eric Vergne to Red Bull before I remembered Verstappen....

                    HAM SAI SIR
                    STR VAN LEC
                    RIC OCO PER
                    VET VER ERI
                    MAG GAS ALO
                    BOT GRO HUL

                    15

                    Comment


                      #11
                      HAM SAI SIR
                      VAN LEC STR
                      RIC OCO PER
                      VET VER ERI
                      ALO GAS MAG
                      BOT HUL GRO

                      14

                      Comment


                        #12
                        HAM SAI SIR
                        VAN STR LEC
                        RIC PER OCO
                        VET VER ERI
                        MAG ALO GAS
                        BOT HUL GRO

                        12

                        Comment


                          #13
                          HAM SAI SIR
                          VAN LEC STR
                          RIC PER OCO
                          VER VET ERI
                          ALO MAG GAS
                          BOT GRO HUL

                          14

                          Comment


                            #14
                            HAM SAI SIR
                            STR VAN LEC
                            RIC PER OCO
                            VET VER ERI
                            ALO MAG GAS
                            BOT GRO HUL

                            15

                            Comment


                              #15
                              So, the answers are:

                              HAM SAI SIR
                              LEC STR VAN
                              PER RIC OCO (RIC > OCO by no of completed laps)
                              VET ERI VER
                              ALO GAS MAG
                              BOT GRO HUL (all DNFs!)

                              Ricciardo's retirement cost everyone one or two points in what was a bonkers Azerbaijan GP for the first official round of this game. Wouter and ursus top-scored with 6, while no-one correctly predicted that 13 cars would finish the race.

                              ursus arctos: 6
                              Wouter D: 6
                              Kevin S: 5
                              Third rate les bleus: 5
                              longeared: 4
                              nmrfox: 4

                              Comment


                                #16
                                F1 2018 Spanish Grand Prix

                                Please enter your predictions before the start of qualifying, which is Saturday 12 May at 1500 CET, 1400 BST (1300 UTC)

                                HAM HUL STR
                                GAS LEC ERI
                                ALO PER SAI
                                SIR VER RIC
                                VAN RAI HAR
                                BOT OCO GRO

                                Bonus: Predict the total number of laps completed in the race by Sergey Sirotkin PLUS Romain Grosjean (out of a possible 132) {closest wins for this one}
                                Last edited by Kevin S; 29-04-2018, 22:32.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  HAM HUL STR
                                  GAS LEC ERI
                                  ALO SAI PER
                                  RIC VER SIR
                                  RAI VAN HAR
                                  BOT OCO GRO

                                  127

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    HAM HUL STR
                                    GAS ERI LEC
                                    ALO PER SAI
                                    VER RIC SIR
                                    RAI VAN HAR
                                    BOT OCO GRO

                                    66

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      HAM HUL STR
                                      LEC GAS ERI
                                      SAI PER ALO
                                      RIC VER SIR
                                      RAI VAN HAR
                                      BOT OCO GRO

                                      95 laps

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        HAM HUL STR
                                        GAS ERI LEC
                                        PER ALO SAI
                                        VER RIC SIR
                                        RAI HAR VAN
                                        BOT OCO GRO

                                        132

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          HAM HUL STR
                                          GAS LEC ERI
                                          ALO PER SAI
                                          RIC VER SIR
                                          RAI VAN HAR
                                          BOT GRO OCO

                                          27

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            F1 2018 Spanish Grand Prix - the answers

                                            HAM STR HUL
                                            LEC ERI GAS
                                            SAI ALO PER
                                            VER RIC SIR
                                            HAR VAN RAI
                                            BOT OCO GRO

                                            Grosjean decided to put the pressure on Sirotkin by spinning out and causing an impressive pileup before completing the first lap, and in the end the Russian managed to complete 63 before the race finished (last of the 14 finishers, in fact). So 63 was the answer, and foxy takes the bonus, putting him in the overall lead.

                                            nmrfox - 5+2 (11)
                                            Kevin S - 5 (10)
                                            Wouter D - 3 (9)
                                            Third rate les Bleus - 3 (8)
                                            longeared - 3 (7)
                                            ursus arctos - d (6)

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              F1 2018 Grand Prix de Monaco

                                              Please enter your predictions before the start of qualifying, which is Saturday 26 May at 1500 CET, 1400 BST (1300 UTC).

                                              PER BOT HAR
                                              GRO VET RAI
                                              STR VAN GAS
                                              ERI RIC OCO
                                              SIR HAM LEC
                                              SAI HUL ALO

                                              Bonus: Predict which of the finishers gains the most places compared to their grid position.

                                              (For example, last year it was Hamilton, who was in P13 on the grid but finished in P7, thus gaining 6 places, while Massa and Palmer both gained 5 places.)

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                BOT PER HAR
                                                VET RAI GRO
                                                GAS VAN STR
                                                RIC OCO ERI
                                                HAM LEC SIR
                                                SAI ALO HUL

                                                Stoffel Vandoorne

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  BOT PER HAR
                                                  VET RAI GRO
                                                  VAN GAS STR
                                                  RIC ERI OCO
                                                  HAM LEC SIR
                                                  ALO HUL SAI

                                                  Alonso.

                                                  Comment

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