Roll up, roll up for the OTF chess tournaments

[Sam]

Some good games going on in this one so far. And I note (without checking the positions of all live games to see whether it's actually likely in some cases) that at the moment it's possible for everyone to both beat and lose to everyone else, which would be an interesting situation. And certainly I'd be happy enough with that.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Some good games indeed. You beat me pretty thoroughly, even though we were (according to the site computer) around level for the first dozen or so moves. Still indeed theoretically possible that all pairs could end up 1-1, though (without implying any low estimation of my likelihood of losing 2-0 to you also) I would be pretty amazed to get a point in my second match v Etienne in particular.

[Etienne]

It's ridiculously tight. EEG is the only person who can reach 8 points, everyone else can reach 7 if they win all their remaining games, except Wouter who can reach 6. So, other than Wouter everyone still has it in their own hands to at least tie for the title (as everyone still has at least one game against EEG to finish). And Wouter is still in with a shout if a handful of other results go his way. Because it's so tight, working out tiebreak combinations is pointless.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Actually, having checked the pairings table, I see that, whilst all pairings with both matches completed are indeed 1-1 draws, that is, at the time of writing, only 5 out of the 15 pairings, so the odds against a full set of 1-1 results are still astronomically high (taking the outcomes as random, without considering the actual current state of play in any of the matches, a proper consideration of which would no doubt makes the odds even longer, in fact oonsiderably so).

[Wouter D]

You can flip it around, though, and compute the probability that a full set of 1-1 results still hasn't been rendered impossible after x of the 15 pairings have been randomly completed. Pretty sure that that's significant for x=5.

It becomes again more muddled if you view every single game as random, since there are multiple ways to combine games to get to a 1-1 pairing results.

[Etienne]

Well, I'm afraid that me and Levin have ruined it.

[Levin]

Yeah, you could have put a bit more effort in there to keep it going I thought. Disappointing.

[Etienne]

I did feel curiously hollow when I won.

[Levin]

Etienne is at the bar now with 7 and only EEG and VT can match him.

[Vicarious Thrillseeker]

Im 5/3 with two to finish. I think I may gain another win, but I've made a silly mistakes in the other game and cannot see myself coming back. I find myself veering from rational and simplistic control to stupidly stupid mistakes, depending on whether I play at home, work, sober or drunk. I've also started recreating each game on my replica Lewis Chessmen set (30 quid - a steal on Amazon, even though the black pieces are purple), and go through possibilities - only to find that the cleaner has come in, taken each piece off, cleaned them and replaced in a random fashion. Keeps me on my toes.....#first/thirdworldproblems

[Etienne]

If you do manage to win both your last games, then I think it'll come down to whichever of EEG or Sam picks up the most points that will decide it (with me hoping it's EEG). If I tie with EEG I'm confident I'd win the tie break with two wins against him.

[Bored Of Education]

I bet you're missing the random grenade that is me really.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

I think the bookies would refuse to take any bets on Etienne now, in fact they'd refuse to take any bets on a "no tie-break needed" win. These words may come back to throw massive egg on my face, but VT has had some loss of concentration moments against me and, unless I'm stupidly overlooking something, if I let him win now after gaining a two piece lead I'm an even worse player than I think I am [Edit: VT just resigned.].

As for my own remaining games, [edit: match over against VT] in first match against Levin I'm up but he is being far too wily to let me convert my advantage into a winning position so far. Sam is up against me and probably heading for his first double over me but it's not in the bag and I am going to try to make him really work for it. My second match against Wouter has got into a very sterile draw-ish situation as far as I can tell. Wouter, I'd be v happy to agree a draw, but I haven't formally offered one because I don't want to presume that you are unable to trick me into some stupid mistake which gives you the win.

And sorry all round for my much slower response speed in this tournament. I'm spending a lot less time on the site, for what I might describe as "personal reasons".

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Feeling chuffed despite mixed results, because the match I just won against Levin appears from the site's computer report to be my best ever in terms of consistent accuracy/best move choices. Pretty much the same accuracy level on Levin's part except for just one piece-losing blunder in the middle of the match which proved decisive in the absence of further errors on either side. If only I could play as consistently solidly in all my matches....

[Sam]

As Alex has said to me more than once when we've played over the board, a game of chess is won by the player who makes the penultimate mistake.

[Bored Of Education]

Hope everything is ok with you, EEG?

[Vicarious Thrillseeker]

Is it over yet?

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

VT, sorry, afraid not, mainly my fault in terms of move speed but I am doing my best.

Bored, thanks for asking, that's appreciated. I did wonder if my post might accidentally look like the kind of cry for help on FB that prompts lots of "you OK, hun?" responses, that wasn't intended.. Basically I'm absolutely fine, yes, my problems are trivial compared to the more serious slings and arrows that life throws at many people including many OTFers. I have issues with my marriage at present, due to years of emotionally unintelligent behaviour on my part which I am doing my best to make up for in a big hurry, so I have to give anything to do with family priority over logging on to the chess site.

[Bored Of Education]

I am no expert but that sounds eminently sensible. All the best.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Ths board's loss of very recent posts included Sam's on here, to which I had been going to reply. Thanks for the good wishes Sam. At least your loss of concentration which gave away your bishop has made the match more interesting - you were nailed on for a win before, now it's going to take a lot more work and patience to stop me forcing a draw. Sorry to all the others who might just be wanting our match to finish so that a new OTF tournament can start, but I think our game has a lot of moves still to go before the outcome beocmes clear. I'm doing my best to keep my responses quick - totally prioritising our match over my other games on the site.

[Sam]

I've got a horrible feeling that I'm in Zugzwang now. Or rather, that I was before the move I just made. But perhaps I'm wrong. Still kicking myself over that bishop.

[Etienne]

Sorry to hear about your issues EEG, hope they resolve.

Sam, you can't have been in zugzwang, because you only escape from zugzwang by losing the game or at least a critical piece.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Thanks Etienne for that.

Given the currently extremely fragile condition of my marriage, and the fact that some aspects of it got a particularly bruising test over this past weekend, it was grimly spooky to learn this morning that the location of my proposal to my wife back in 2008, on the Seven Sisters cliffs near Birling Gap, was the subject of significant cliff falls this weekend, per the BBC report below [edit: also posted by Guy on the weather thread].

I'm reassuring myself that omens are bollocks by reminding myself of a Saturday afternoon bike ride I did earlier this year while LUFC were playing - I noticed that near a resting point in St Ives (Cambs) there was a prominent office of local law firm Leeds Day, which I took as a good omen only to discover an hour or so later that it had absolutely not been Leeds' day.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49876427

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

At the risk of serious egg on face if I've missed something, after the 68th moves I'm fairly sure I can now force a draw whatever Sam does.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Looks as if Sam agreed. Well, first time Sam has got more than half the points against me in a tournament, even if it wasn't quite the full 2 points. And so endeth the tournament. Congrats to Etienne on the title. I think I might sit the next one out.