BoJo's Heave-Ho and Next PM Stakes

[Discordant Resonance]

One would imagine Johnson's position as Tory leader has become untenable after the by-election result, so I'll start the bidding with him announcing his resignation/losing a no-confidence vote on the 23rd of January, with Gove succeeding him at No 10.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

I reckon Gove's already viewed as a smarmy little shit by the rank and file, and surely everyone knows Patel is just evil, so it'll come down to Sunak or Truss. The Tories do like a nicely presented woman in a business suit, no matter how clearly obnoxious, so I reckon Truss.

No chance it'll be by vote of no confidence over this by-election, though, it'll be if current policy kills another 40,000 grandmas over xmas.

[Levin]

March 2023. A year before the next general election

[Sheep]

January 2030.

[San Bernardhinault]

The cynical thing to think is that they'll wait until a little after the Omicron wave has peaked so Johnson gets all the blame for it, but his successor gets all the credit for the recovery. So, the official campaign will start some time in Feb.

Gove thinks he has it, and has support from the media wing. But I don't think he's popular enough.

My guess is that it's Priti Patel. Sunak has marginally more chance of being electable, but the Tory electorate is increasingly resembling a GOP primary electorate, I think. Less concerned about winning elections and more concerned about trolling the left. Also, in the back of their minds they're probably thinking that if they have a woman from an ethnic minority as a leader, that acts as a shield against arguments that they're reactionary and evil.

[Patrick Thistle]

It will be Truss. She's already getting compared to Margaret Thatcher in the press.

I reckon Johnson will gone by Easter 2022 unless Carrie can have another "baby" just before then. Which will be easily done via central casting like the last 2.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

I think he'll be gone by summer recess, or at least they'll get him by then and let the succession run over the summer. I don't think there is an obvious successor though. Truss has already started her leadership campaign with that newspaper interview, but like Patel she is the sort of candidate who will play well among the party members but will alienate the electorate and while they were stupid enough to take that chance with IDS, Howard or Hague, they are desperate to hang on to power now and won't risk it. Raab would tempt some of them as being a relatively moderate face, but he's too accident prone on TV for him to be trusted with an election. I could see Sunak getting it, and it seems he's already running a campaign, but his business dealings are in too many pies and there is bound to be some dynamite dirt in amongst that lot.

So, because no one else has bagged him, and dependent on how the Covid situation plays out, I'll be the first to say it - Sajid Javid.

[Guy Profumo]

Truss

Although Patel will appeal to the parliamentary and politically driven lot, there's the persistent elephant in the room when it comes to membership of the Tory Party and Patel

[Duncan Gardner]

[Antepli Ejderha]

Andy Burnham and Lisa Nandy on the list but not Starmer.

[ad hoc]

Starmer is on the list. 3rd favourite

[Antepli Ejderha]

Starmer is on the list. 3rd favourite

I thought he must have been but couldn't see him for looking.

[Guy Profumo]

Farage?


Fools and their money

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Rubs hands.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/oddsbible/status/1544385656792678402?s=21&t=tSRGiN86v_VnMeHHXLLxuQ

[Cal Alamein]

that's over 2 months old - anything more current?

[ursus arctos]

Another set from tonight

https://twitter.com/oddschecker/status/1544373426533634052?t=hlbvZKP0OkRnDuJ4iLT0JA&s=19

[caja-dglh]

so a complete mess of nobody knows.

[ursus arctos]

Not unexpected, though

[Uncle Ethan]

August 29 is when he goes people. It is cast in stone.

[Nocturnal Submission]

How the hell is Penny Mordaunt at the top of any list???

A lot can happen between now and any election but I'd have thought it was between Sunak and Truss, with Gove a strong outside bet.

[Uncle Ethan]

Who the hell is Penny Mourdant?

[ursus arctos]

Currently the Trade Secretary.

Formerly Secretary for International Development and Defence Secretary under May.

Widely considered more capable than Truss or Dorries and less evil than Patel or Braverman (admittedly low bars).

[Sits]

She's got no chance then.

[Hot Pepsi]

Why is it taking so long.