One would imagine Johnson's position as Tory leader has become untenable after the by-election result, so I'll start the bidding with him announcing his resignation/losing a no-confidence vote on the 23rd of January, with Gove succeeding him at No 10.
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BoJo's Heave-Ho and Next PM Stakes
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I reckon Gove's already viewed as a smarmy little shit by the rank and file, and surely everyone knows Patel is just evil, so it'll come down to Sunak or Truss. The Tories do like a nicely presented woman in a business suit, no matter how clearly obnoxious, so I reckon Truss.
No chance it'll be by vote of no confidence over this by-election, though, it'll be if current policy kills another 40,000 grandmas over xmas.Last edited by Rogin the Armchair fan; 17-12-2021, 12:34.
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The cynical thing to think is that they'll wait until a little after the Omicron wave has peaked so Johnson gets all the blame for it, but his successor gets all the credit for the recovery. So, the official campaign will start some time in Feb.
Gove thinks he has it, and has support from the media wing. But I don't think he's popular enough.
My guess is that it's Priti Patel. Sunak has marginally more chance of being electable, but the Tory electorate is increasingly resembling a GOP primary electorate, I think. Less concerned about winning elections and more concerned about trolling the left. Also, in the back of their minds they're probably thinking that if they have a woman from an ethnic minority as a leader, that acts as a shield against arguments that they're reactionary and evil.
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It will be Truss. She's already getting compared to Margaret Thatcher in the press.
I reckon Johnson will gone by Easter 2022 unless Carrie can have another "baby" just before then. Which will be easily done via central casting like the last 2.
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I think he'll be gone by summer recess, or at least they'll get him by then and let the succession run over the summer. I don't think there is an obvious successor though. Truss has already started her leadership campaign with that newspaper interview, but like Patel she is the sort of candidate who will play well among the party members but will alienate the electorate and while they were stupid enough to take that chance with IDS, Howard or Hague, they are desperate to hang on to power now and won't risk it. Raab would tempt some of them as being a relatively moderate face, but he's too accident prone on TV for him to be trusted with an election. I could see Sunak getting it, and it seems he's already running a campaign, but his business dealings are in too many pies and there is bound to be some dynamite dirt in amongst that lot.
So, because no one else has bagged him, and dependent on how the Covid situation plays out, I'll be the first to say it - Sajid Javid.
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Another set from tonight
https://twitter.com/oddschecker/status/1544373426533634052?t=hlbvZKP0OkRnDuJ4iLT0JA&s=19
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- Mar 2008
- 19022
- Revelling In The Hole
- England, Chelsea and Tooting and Mitcham. And Surrey CCC. And Wimbledon Dons Speedway (RIP)
- Nairn's Cheese Oatcake
How the hell is Penny Mordaunt at the top of any list???
A lot can happen between now and any election but I'd have thought it was between Sunak and Truss, with Gove a strong outside bet.
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