The draw

[Kevin S]

Let's start this shiny new sub-forum off with the draw, then.

Group A
France
South Korea
Norway
Nigeria

Group B
Germany
China
Spain
South Africa

Group C
Australia
Italy
Brazil
Jamaica

Group D
England
Scotland
Argentina
Japan

Group E
Canada
Cameroon
New Zealand
Netherlands

Group F
United States
Thailand
Chile
Sweden

Last 16 = six group winners, six runners-up, four best-ranked third-placed teams.

[Kevin S]

And the current rankings of these 24 teams is:

01 US
02 Germany
03 France
04 England
05 Canada
06 Australia
07 Netherlands
08 Japan
09 Sweden
10 Brazil
12 Spain
13 Norway
14 South Korea
15 China
16 Italy
19 New Zealand
20 Scotland
29 Thailand
36 Argentina
38 Chile
39 Nigeria
46 Cameroon
48 South Africa
53 Jamaica

[Sits]

So is the strength of the Thai team relative to the men's team who are nowhere, a reflection of investment in the women's game or something else?

[Wouter D]

07 Natherlands

Wut.

[Ek weet nie]

I would be disappointed if I was North Korean. 11th in the world, unbeaten in qualification but not there for the big show.

[Kevin S]

Wut.

Oops! Corrected.

[Kevin S]

Seconded on the DPRK. Here's what Doraemon said on the qualification thread:

The DPRK are one of the best teams and got seriously shafted in the qualification for the Asian Cup.

Because they were banned from the last tournament they were unseeded in the draw for the qualifying round. They were then put in the same group as South Korea. They won all their games comfortably, except the one vs South Korea, which they drew 1-1. They had a plus 17 GD which meant they finished second in the group as South Korea had plus 20. Only the top team qualified for the tournament.

The tournament itself was strange as the hosts Jordan were top seeds, meaning that Australia, Japan and South Korea were all in one group and China got Thailand and Jordan

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

So is the strength of the Thai team relative to the men's team who are nowhere, a reflection of investment in the women's game or something else?

Thailand have, for ages, been roughly the sixth best team in the AFC (behind Japan, both Koreas, China and Australia). Because of the dearth of inter-confederation matches, and the fact that the standard of teams in the AFC drops off rapidly below the big five - who monopolise tournament spots - it's been fairly hard historically to come up with a suitable position for Thailand.

They tended to get big wins over teams below them and heavy defeats to teams below them - in the 2014 Asia Cup, they were thrashed by China.

In 2014, North Korea were banned by FIFA, so the fifth place spot opened up for them - and they finished third in their group in the World Cup - getting thrashed by Norway and Germany and narrowly beating Cote D'Ivoire.

They qualified again in part because they avoided North Korea in Asia Cup qualifying, then got the hosts Jordan as their group's top seeds rather than Australia.

That said, they did manage a penalty shoot-out defeat to Australia in the Asia Cup semis - bookended by two hefty defeats to China.

[Kevin S]

So is the strength of the Thai team relative to the men's team who are nowhere, a reflection of investment in the women's game or something else?

Related to the DPRK issue, Thailand's run to the finals was fortuitous. Their qualifying group for the Asian Cup was Chinese Taipei, Palestine, Lebanon and Guam. The latter two withdrew so a 1-0 win over Chinese Taipei and a drubbing of Palestine was enough to get them to the Asian Cup finals. Compared, as above, to North Korea finishing runner up to South Korea in a qualifying group because they didn't get into double figures against India and Hong Kong.

Anyway, the Asian Cup last year was two groups of four and five teams from it qualified for the World Cup, i.e. the semi finalists and the winners of a fifth place playoff between the third placed teams in the two groups. Thailand (as noted) were again luckily put in Jordan's group meaning they didn't have to face a 'true' top seed. Wins against Philippines and Jordan, added to those previous wins against Chinese Taipei and Palestine, is what has got them here.

[Kevin S]

Thailand have, for ages, been roughly the sixth best team in the AFC (behind Japan, both Koreas, China and Australia). Because of the dearth of inter-confederation matches, and the fact that the standard of teams in the AFC drops off rapidly below the big five - who monopolise tournament spots - it's been fairly hard historically to come up with a suitable position for Thailand.

They tended to get big wins over teams below them and heavy defeats to teams below them - in the 2014 Asia Cup, they were thrashed by China.

In 2014, North Korea were banned by FIFA, so the fifth place spot opened up for them - and they finished third in their group in the World Cup - getting thrashed by Norway and Germany and narrowly beating Cote D'Ivoire.

They qualified again in part because they avoided North Korea in Asia Cup qualifying, then got the hosts Jordan as their group's top seeds rather than Australia.

That said, they did manage a penalty shoot-out defeat to Australia in the Asia Cup semis - bookended by two hefty defeats to China.

I wonder how they'd get on in the OFC?

[Satchmo Distel]

Is there enough depth to expand this to 32 teams in future? The "four best-ranked third-placed teams" system is annoying.

[Kevin S]

You would get the following qualifiers (31) if you did a pro rata expansion.

AFC 7
CAF 4
CONCACAF 5
CONMEBOL 3
OFC 1
UEFA 11

Two more Asian AFC teams - let's assume that's North Korea, which would be fine and then I think it would be Vietnam or Philippines. You would be adding at least one weak team there.
One more for Africa means that both the semi-finalists of the Awcon get through, so that would be ok I think.
Concacaf up to five means it would take the current Asian format - semi finalists of the Gold Cup plus a fifth placed playoff. Take two from Panama, Mexico or Costa Rica.
Panama were beaten 5-1 by Argentina in a playoff over two legs (they did draw one of them). South America would get the three full places rather than a playoff, so no real change to the quality here.
OFC - Fiji still aren't getting a look in I'm afraid.
UEFA - three more under the current system would mean a few teams like Switzerland, Belgium, Wales, Iceland, Denmark etc would get in and that would be fine.

I think it's doable, though it could make the groups more of a cakewalk for the top seeds.

It would be better if AFC was on 6 (as BLT says, there's a bit off a drop-off after Thailand) and UEFA 12, then I think it's possibly a runner.

[Kevin S]

If you want to see the difference between the third and fourth placed teams in Africa, here are the highlights of the Awcon bronze medal match late last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U14x7K0sSvw&t=22s

[Satchmo Distel]

OTOH if the rankings are to be trusted, CAF is very weak (39-48, no Top 32 sides, all much weaker than Thailand or North Korea)

[Kevin S]

That's not a million miles of the men's CAF rankings though, and they get five. During Russia 2018 the CAF teams were ranked as:

Egypt (45)
Morocco (41)
Nigeria (48)
Senegal (27)
Tunisia (21)

The fourth placed women's team in CAF is currently 50th, corresponding reasonably well to Nigeria's 48th last year. A couple of the men's AFC sides last year were outside the top 60...

[Kevin S]

Mind you, a further tweak could help too. If we say that reaching the Awcon semi final is not in itself enough then we say that the winner of the 3rd/4th playoff goes to the WWC but the loser has to win a further playoff against UEFA #13, so UEFA gets 12.5 and CAF gets 3.5, which is still more than Conmebol.

Edit, or perhaps better would be a playoff of CAF #4 v Conmebol #4 actually and stick on 12 for UEFA.

AFC 6
CAF 3.5
CONCACAF 5
CONMEBOL 3.5
OFC 1
UEFA 12
Hosts 1