With Iceland trailing France, a draw in this game would put Iceland, Italy, and Belgium joint second on two points each. Head-to-head-to-head results are the first tie breaker, so the group resolves as follows:
- if this game ends scoreless, Iceland advance;
- if this game ends 1-1, the head-to-head-to-head is exactly level. Italy are out. Belgium advance if France's victory is either 1-0 or by a margin of at least two. Iceland advance if France's victory is by a margin of one in which Iceland score at least two goals. If France v Iceland ends 2-1, the tie between Belgium and Iceland is broken by disciplinary record (which Iceland are currently winning by two sending-offs or six bookings) and, if necessary, by UEFA coefficient ranking (which would favor Belgium);
- if this game ends 2-2 or a higher-scoring draw, Belgium advance.
So Italy need to win, and Belgium need to score. Recipe for fireworks.
- if this game ends scoreless, Iceland advance;
- if this game ends 1-1, the head-to-head-to-head is exactly level. Italy are out. Belgium advance if France's victory is either 1-0 or by a margin of at least two. Iceland advance if France's victory is by a margin of one in which Iceland score at least two goals. If France v Iceland ends 2-1, the tie between Belgium and Iceland is broken by disciplinary record (which Iceland are currently winning by two sending-offs or six bookings) and, if necessary, by UEFA coefficient ranking (which would favor Belgium);
- if this game ends 2-2 or a higher-scoring draw, Belgium advance.
So Italy need to win, and Belgium need to score. Recipe for fireworks.
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