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The Odds

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    The Odds

    (With the usual acknowledgement that gambling is bad and not everyone's thing, when the fun stops, stop)

    Winners:
    France are favourites at 9/2, followed by, ridiculously, England at 5/1 - 16/1 would better reflect their chances I feel but there's the usual weight of patriotic and optimistic bets.
    Belgium have edged into third favouritism at around 6/1, and then there's a solid block of four at around 8/1 - Germany, Italy (my bet), Portugal and Spain.
    The value bets are led by the Netherlands at around 14/1, then Denmark and Croatia at around 33/1.
    Turkey's much vaunted dark horse status has trimmed them to 50/1, ahead of Switzerland (66/1) and Poland (about 80).
    The Outsiders in the 100-200/1 bracket are Ukraine, Sweden, Austria, Czechia and Wales, while the no-hopers at 200-500/1 are Scotland, Finland, Hungary, N Macedonia and Slovakia.
    Huge variations between the firms, even at the top of the market so worth shopping around.

    Top Goalscorer:
    Harry Kane and Romelu Lukaku head the market at between 5/1 and 6/1, with Mbappe about 8, and Cristiano Ronaldo surprisingly skinny at 12/1.
    Then two very good shouts at around 16/1 in Benzema and Depay, but my money is going on Lewandowski at a great price of 25/1. I've got a feeling Poland are due to outperform their expectations, and Lewa could hardly be said to be out of form.

    I'll add some of the more niche markets later.

    #2
    The way Hungary are playing tonight, certainly doing nothing to belay those odds.

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      #3
      Patriotic bets count for little in the gambling market. Prices shift primarily when big money, at the very least in the thousands, moves.

      I saw it happen myself, once. I used to manage a betting shop, and one Saturday some bloke came in wanting to put ?9k down on an odds-on favourite in a horse race. I had to call head office, go through all this paperwork, and had to ask him a few questions about it.

      Turned out he'd wanted to drive to the course to put it on (it was Kempton Park, which is straight round the M25 from London Colney, where we were) but that his car had broken down, which sucked for him, because at the time you still had to pay 9% tax on either the bet or the returns if you bet off-course, so it cost him ?810.

      When it was approved, the guy on the other end of the phone said, "Keep an eye on the screen" and the price shifted from 1/2 to 4/9.

      The guy got his 1/2, obviously but it was all somewhat academic in the end. It lost.

      England are second favourites because they're the closest thing there is to a host country - were they to win their group and get to the final, they'd play five out of six matches at Wembley with the other being in Rome - and because they're pretty good, when they click. They've beaten Romania and Czechia since the 2018 World Cup. Scotland haven't beaten them since 1999.Dispassionately, I can understand why they are second favourites.

      Obviously, though, I wouldn't bet on them at that price because England.

      In my experience people don't tend to put thousands on sentimental bets, or at least they try their best not to let it influence their decision-making process. I mean, there's probably a few out there with just more money than sense, but even they'd be drops in the ocean in a market like outrights for the Euros. People who treat it like a job, or for whom it is a job, can't afford to be that unscientific. I'd guess there's as many stats nerds going through all the figures with an electron microscope as there are people putting a tenner on England because god save the queen.

      I'd be surprised if the sum total of flag-fucking tenners moved England's price more than a point, and in a more globalised market it might even be less influential than it used to be. Unless spread-betting has completely distorted the market in a way that probably wouldn't make sense to me, that is, but I can't readily think of a way in which it might have.

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        #4
        There used to be genuine arbitrage opportunities among national markets that had been influenced by "patriotic" bettors, but I think that those are largely a thing of the past as the on line market has rendered national borders much more irrelevant than they one were, particularly in a market as large and liquid as the Euros.

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          #5
          The market in it has certainly exploded. I was working in one until July 2000, and our football takings were very solid at about five per cent of our turnover. And I don't remember ever seeing a bet of more than maybe two hundred quid ever going on the football. But they were just starting to really try to grow it in shops at the time.

          I just spent an age looking for figures and found a report from 2002 which confirmed what my stick a finger in the air guess would have been; at about that time horses accounted for about 70 per cent of revenues and dogs about a quarter. The amount gambled on football in the UK has increased by about a third since 2008. What I did see that was interesting was that they leapt by about a third in 2018, presumably on account of the World Cup, and then receded again.

          It's pretty difficult to make a direct comparison between now and then because it's such a different world now. In 2000, there were tracks, betting shops, and casinos, but as with so many other things, taking it online changed the game completely. Making it something you could carry round in your pocket changed it again. Spread betting had existed since the late 1980s, but I think it was a pretty slow take up.

          And while all those other things still exist - even the cull of betting shops seems to have slowed; I wonder if they've still got two in London Colney, both owned by the same chain? - there are just so many other options and there's SO MUCH more advertising. I find it all utterly baffling, and more than a little frightening.

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            #6
            Getting back on-topic, I don't see any sense in betting on anyone France. It's not like they're playing a different level of football to everybody else, it's more that, a things being equal, I just don't see a better team. They're beatable, yes, but I think they're still the best team. France do occasionally implode at these, though, I guess.

            ​​​​​​In terms of "value", I'd go for Mbappe for much the same reason. Regarding the others, I understand why Harry Kane is the favourite. He scores lots of goals. Takes the penalties. Claims the slightest touch. And he has more familiar surroundings than any other player in the tournament, having done time there with Spurs as well as England. I'd be surprised if there were many players who knew Wembley better.

            So my money would be:

            To win generally, France
            Top goalscorer, Mbappe

            ​​​​​And if I'm chucking money at an outsider, no matter how fascist it may or may not be, I could quite imagine a world in which the stir about the flag on their shirts got the wind behind Ukraine's sails.

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              #7
              England's chances are better than 16-1 but worse than 5-1. There are several big sides that they haven't beaten in a major tournament knock-out game since 1966 (Germany, Portugal) or ever (Italy?). Their players have also had a long season and there's tension between players and "fans" over the racist booing of the knee. OTOH their usual nemesis, Germany, is having a bad run and Italy don't have a Pirlo. The squad quality is deserving of being among the favourites but there are some weaknesses: keeper, back-up central defenders.

              England being so close to France in the betting is perhaps a reflection of the latter not winning it in 2016, and that it's rare for the World Cup holders to win the Euros; players hold their places because of their status rather than their form and there's complacency and staleness.
              Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 09-06-2021, 00:20.

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                #8
                Oh yeah, I agree with a lot of that, though I guess it also matters that now there are just one or two gaps in the team, whereas going back years there was genuinely an institutional difference in technical ability, even at the the highest level.

                But I'm not sure about the extent to which it's supposed to represent what the bookies *expect* to happen. It is partly a reflection of the market itself and the way in which it moves.

                I don't know how it works these days, a football match was a football match on a coupon when I was doing it, and it was incredibly static. With horses, the prices could go right out or come right in. It was much more volatile. I guess there's several reasons for that.

                But the football market was completely static. Prices never went out in the build-up to matches, they never went in. We just got an envelope full of coupons through twice a week about three or four days before the weekend or midweek fixtures with the prices already printed on them, and that was that. Is that still the same through the major bookmakers, or do they now move in the way that horse race prices always have? (I don't gamble these days, so I don't know whether it's changed.)

                They also had quite a low ceiling on stakes, I think it was a hundred pounds, but that was because concerns over match-fixing, which was all the rage in the late 1990s, rather than because they feared bankrupting themselves. I think that ultimately they didn't really know what they were doing so were being super cautious.

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                  #9
                  I've given up getting on football as it was becoming addictive and this season with matches every night could've been difficult. Workmates asked me to tip and I thought while France were likely to remain strong they have that group to negotiate first, whereas Belgium have it easier, on paper. But that was before De Bruyne's trauma.

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                    #10
                    They did start narrowing the odds after the coupons were printed and I used to get annoyed they'd tell you that after taking your money, which they'd never do with horseracing bets.
                    I also used to feel that there was value in the Scottish lower leagues but punters became much more savvy and able to spread their money around beyond the big matches. Online tipsters, constant access to form guides, watching the odds, etc (oh, and Jeff Stelling- him telling you Elgin are on a run of 5 away wins as the goals go in)
                    Last edited by Felicity, I guess so; 09-06-2021, 06:40.

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                      #11
                      Did the coupons have a disclaimer saying the odds were subject to change? I only ever did one for USA 94 then realized I was spending too much. Much better to just stick a fiver on the winner, as I did in 1990 (I think West Germany were 8-1, underestimated behind Brazil, Italy and Argentina).

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                        #12
                        I think they did have those terms, but that was to cover them legally and I don't remember ever them being acted upon. Even pre-internet, it's never very good publicity for a bookmaker to be the one who doesn't pay out when the man on the Clapham omnibus would think they should.

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                          #13

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                            #14
                            That's the thing about value. It's only value if they win.

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                              #15

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                                #16

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                                  #17
                                  Wales shortened the most from the start, Hungary lengthened the most (partly due to group dynamics)

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                                    #18
                                    Surprised that Spain haven't lengthened a bit.
                                    Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 21-06-2021, 09:15.

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                                      #19
                                      As am I

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                                        #20
                                        Cristiano Ronaldo (5/2) is the new favourite for top scorer, ahead of Lukaku (9/2) and, rolls eyes, Immobile at 8s. Schick, who has 3 already, is 10/1 and worth bearing in mind for each way.

                                        Of those yet to open their account, Mbappé has gone to 16/1, while Harry Kane's performances have been reflected in him drifting like a proverbial barge, out to 20/1.

                                        I've still got blind faith in Lewandowski (33/1), but having a side bet on Depay, out to 25/1, already off the mark and he takes the penalties.

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                                          #21
                                          Portugal aren't guaranteed a last 16 place yet.

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                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                                            Portugal aren't guaranteed a last 16 place yet.
                                            Only four countries are guaranteed a last 16 place yet, so that's not necessarily such a relevant point.

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                                              #23

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                                                #24
                                                Spain's odds have come in​​​​​​? I know they won 5-0 but they've looked terrible every game and now they've ended up in the harder half of the draw

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                                                  #25
                                                  11/2 Lukaku for top goalscorer seems good value.

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