The Odds

[Sporting]

England's odds are ridiculous.

[Satchmo Distel]

There seems to be an assumption they'll improve (plus they got the weaker half of the draw).

[Satchmo Distel]

Denmark are clearly not three times less likely to win it than England are, and that was obvious before today.

[Sporting]

Denmark are clearly not three times less likely to win it than England are, and that was obvious before today.

But obviously you know that's not how odds work.

[Duncan Gardner]

Wilhelm Berg, Guillermo Cerrito and their equivalents will have more attractive prices for England

[Duncan Gardner]

Latest
England 2/1
Italy 4/1
Spain 16/5
Belgium 13/2
Denmark 10/1
Switzerland 25/1
Czechia 25/1
Ukraine 33/1

[Satchmo Distel]

The bottom 5 are not bad value. Top 3 are the market following the money.

[ad hoc]

Can you get something like 2/5 on England not winning?

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Can you get something like 2/5 on England not winning?

I don't know if you could bet the field directly, but you could lay the bet (of an England win) on an exchange, for the same outcome (but maybe not the same odds)

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Checking on Betfair you can lay at 3.2, which is the equivalent of betting on anyone but England at 16/5 on.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

... And incidentally the Betfair exchange has Spain as clear second favourites, and noticeably longer odds for the bottom four on thst list.

[Satchmo Distel]

Last four (roughly 72 hours before the first SF):

England 6/4
Italy 9/4
Spain 11/4
Denmark 9/1

I'd expect Denmark to come in a bit; 9/1 in a four-horse race where Denmark are by no means a rank outsider (and they won this tournament more recently than Italy whilst England have never been in the final; OTOH I don't think betting markets regard history as form like we* tend to do).

*or maybe just I and a few others.

[jwdd27]

The Final

Match betting (90 mins)
Italy 2/1 generally, just over that in places
Draw 19/10 , but can still get 2/1
England 6/4 roughly
(They are a mix of confusing prices - the three bookies I'm active with at the moment have them at 8/5 (BetVictor), 13/8 (Hills) and 31/20 (Lad's broke), which if you multiply by 8, 5 and 2 respectively comes out at 64/40, 65/40 and 62/40).

Those are all fairly attractive odds, but jwdd27's law says that you always back the draw in a final. The skinny odds suggest plenty of money has come in for that outcome. More value likely if you back the draw once a goal has gone in, if it does.

To lift the trophy
Italy evs
England 4/5

A fairly accurate dilution of the match odds. I backed Italy at 8/1 pre-tournament so not interested in this market.

To win in extra time / on penalties
Italy 11/1
England 10/1
Both teams 9/1 on penalties
7 games in Euro 2020 have gone to extra time, with 3 going to pens, which is against the trend of previous tournaments, where the majority of games go to a shoot out. Which would suggest to me that penalties are more likely than an ET winner.

First Goalscorer
Harry Kane a predictable favourite at 9/2, just ahead of no goalscorer (which includes o.g.) at 5/1. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a surprising 6/1, unless there's been a whisper about Kane's fitness I can't see him figuring. Raheem Sterling is good value at 15/2 considering he's been first scorer in 3 of England's 6 games.
OTF favourite Ciro Immobile is 11/2, but the value is Chiesa at 10/1 or possibly Jorginho at 16s if they get a penalty after the hopeless Immobile is subbed off.

[Satchmo Distel]

(With the usual acknowledgement that gambling is bad and not everyone's thing, when the fun stops, stop)

Winners:
France are favourites at 9/2, followed by, ridiculously, England at 5/1 - 16/1 would better reflect their chances I feel but there's the usual weight of patriotic and optimistic bets.
Belgium have edged into third favouritism at around 6/1, and then there's a solid block of four at around 8/1 - Germany, Italy (my bet), Portugal and Spain.
The value bets are led by the Netherlands at around 14/1, then Denmark and Croatia at around 33/1.
Turkey's much vaunted dark horse status has trimmed them to 50/1, ahead of Switzerland (66/1) and Poland (about 80).
The Outsiders in the 100-200/1 bracket are Ukraine, Sweden, Austria, Czechia and Wales, while the no-hopers at 200-500/1 are Scotland, Finland, Hungary, N Macedonia and Slovakia.
Huge variations between the firms, even at the top of the market so worth shopping around.

Top Goalscorer:
Harry Kane and Romelu Lukaku head the market at between 5/1 and 6/1, with Mbappe about 8, and Cristiano Ronaldo surprisingly skinny at 12/1.
Then two very good shouts at around 16/1 in Benzema and Depay, but my money is going on Lewandowski at a great price of 25/1. I've got a feeling Poland are due to outperform their expectations, and Lewa could hardly be said to be out of form.

I'll add some of the more niche markets later.

Interesting to compare the starting odds above with the current World Cup ones (which are generally longer because of Brazil/Argentina being big runners and the fact we are further out):

France 9/2 Euros v 6/1 WC
England 5/1 Euros v 8/1 WC
Belgium 6/1 Euros v 10/1 WC (following the consensus that the Euros was their last chance)
Italy 8/1 Euros v 10/1 WC. Still underrated. Ridiculous that their odds are the same as Belgium's.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/winner

I would conclude that the Euros haven't really affected any odds except Belgium's, whilst Copa America might have brought in Argentina's a bit. Infact the World Cup tends to have its own market trends that don't follow current form as much as you might expect but rely instead on long-term reputation, brand loyalty (in Brazil's case) and depth of squad.