You need 40 points to be safe...

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

As half the season's over and fifth from bottom in the Premier League are only on 15 points, it got me wondering has there ever been a season when 30 points, never mind 40, was good enough to stay up?

[Sean of the Shed]

West Brom 04/05 are still the lowest points total survivors with 34.

[SouthdownRebel]

Southampton survived on 36 last season, but Swansea only managed 33 so 34 would also have been enough. The last time it took 40 points to survive was 2010/11 when Wolves finished 17th and Blackpool and Birmingham City both went down with 39.

[Satchmo Distel]

Sheffield Wednesday went down with 43 and a GD of -16 in 1989-1990.

[Sean of the Shed]

Sheffield Wednesday went down with 43 and a GD of -16 in 1989-1990.

And this was a 20 team division, I had to look it up as I thought it must have been a 22 team season.
Wednesday finished just 20 points behind Spurs in third place. In contrast last season Swansea were the team that finished in 18th place, 44 points behind Spurs in third place.

[longeared]

Sheffield Wednesday went down with 43 and a GD of -16 in 1989-1990.

That was the most bonkers season ever. We were hopeless to begin with, by the end of October we had two goals, six points and were bottom of the league. Then we signed John Sheridan and Phil King with Roland Nilsson arriving shortly after and the team clicked. We just struggled to finish games off though, there were loads of occasions when we'd go to big clubs, play brilliantly, miss the chances we created and then a moment of skill or luck late on saw us beat - Liverpool, Villa, Derby, Norwich, Everton. We gradually clawed our way up the league and on March 24th we hit the 40 point barrier with a draw at Wimbledon.

The following Saturday we were at home to Spurs in the sunshine and the programme idly noted that already we only needed two more points to match the previous season's total. Early in the second half Dalian Atkinson rifled home a volley to put us 2-1 up, then King and Trevor Francis both went off injured and they'd barely got down the tunnel before Lineker popped up twice to give them the lead. Paul Stewart added another and we lost 4-2. That was the day of the poll tax riots, someone should remind Woke Gary about what he was up to that day.

Anyway, then we lost at home to Southampton, then we went to Manchester City where we absolutely battered them and lost 1-2. Next was QPR away, we conceded after two minutes and absolutely battered them for the remaining 88. Without equalising. So in the penultimate game we went to Charlton who were already relegated, Hirsty scored twice and we won 2-1 to hit 43 points. The Selhurst Park PA announced that Luton had drawn 0-0 with Palace and consequently we were safe. Turned out Luton had actually scored with the last kick of the game and we weren't safe after all.

And that brings us to the infamous May 5th 1990. To be relegated we had to lose to Forest and Luton to win at Derby, any other combination of results and we'd be safe. Guess what ultimately happened? Then to top it all off look at which two teams got promoted from the second division that very same day.

Big Ron Atkinson was our manager at the time and said we were the best team that had ever been relegated. He may be prone to hyperbole but he surely had a point there given that we managed to keep most of the team (apart from Real Sociedad paying an over-the-top £1.7m for Dalian Atkinson) and most of that side contributed to the glory years that followed.

West Ham also got relegated in 2003 with 43 points, btw.

[Crystal Staples]

I struggle with the concept of enough points to be safe because it's subjective - using last season's example:

Southampton survived on 36 last season, but Swansea only managed 33 so 34 would also have been enough.

Except from Swansea's point of view if they'd converted one of their losses to a draw and got 34 it wouldn't have been enough. The bottom three would all say they needed 37 to finish above three other teams.

[elguapo4]

If I was a fan of Bournemouth I'd be getting slightly worried, ok they only need 14 points for the magical 40 but they've lost three vital players for the rest of the season and some of their heroes from the rise through the divisions (especially Steve Cook and Charlie Francis) look like they don't have much left in the tank. January could be a big month for Eddie Howe's reputation both on the pitch and in the transfer window.

[ale]

Southampton survived on 36 last season, but Swansea only managed 33 so 34 would also have been enough. The last time it took 40 points to survive was 2010/11 when Wolves finished 17th and Blackpool and Birmingham City both went down with 39.

Isnt there an argument to be had that you need more points than 4th bottom to stay up not third bottom? If Swansea managed 33 then 34 is not enough as Southampton got 36 in avoiding the last relegation place.

[Etienne]

No. If Southampton had drawn one of the games they won, then they would have had 34 points but still stayed up, which is the point of the original post.

[ale]

No. If Southampton had drawn one of the games they won, then they would have had 34 points but still stayed up, which is the point of the original post.

Yeah but Southampton didnt draw that game or any of the others. As the league stands on results of games played 37 points was required. As the league would stand if results were rewritten then who knows.

[Sporting]

I'm now asking myself what are the fewest points scored by a non-relegated team (in any league) in at least a 16 team league and with three (or maybe two) going down.

[Patrick Thistle]

4 teams had points deductions in League 2 in 08-09, including Luton who started on -30. The bottom 2 went down and third bottom Grimsby stayed up with 41 points, in a 24 team league.

Chester were the other team besides Luton to drop. They didn't have any points deducted but only got 37 points all season. I'm not sure when they went bust and reformed but I think it was that summer.

[Patrick Thistle]

That's a points per game ratio of 0.89 for Grimsby - and they stayed up. It would be between 33 and 34 points in a Premier League season.

[Southport Zeb]

4 teams had points deductions in League 2 in 08-09, including Luton who started on -30. The bottom 2 went down and third bottom Grimsby stayed up with 41 points, in a 24 team league.

Chester were the other team besides Luton to drop. They didn't have any points deducted but only got 37 points all season. I'm not sure when they went bust and reformed but I think it was that summer.

Chester City started the following season in the Conference but folded the following March.

[Gangster Octopus]

I'm now asking myself what are the fewest points scored by a non-relegated team (in any league) in at least a 16 team league and with three (or maybe two) going down.

I can tell you what the highest number of points for a relegated club during the 2 points for a win times is. And who achieved it...

[Patrick Thistle]

40 points in the Premier League gives you 1.05 points per game. I don't know how to calculate the variance, but if teams have stayed up with 34 (0.89 ppg) and 43 (1.13ppg), it looks like about a 10 per cent margin of error either way depending on the season. So really to be absolutely safe, unless there are freakazoid circumstances, you'd need 44 points in the Premier League.